Oil and Natural Gas

If and when this gets near 60, I am very much anticipating a tsumami of profit taking, say 60.20-59.80.....

I dont see see any reason for this trend to falter too much for a severe drop, followed by a large rebound, in fact, I'm banking on it by using the 2008 model, any thoughts?

your opinion that 60 is the bottom?
hmmmmmmmm something to watch imo

I doubt that 60 is the bottom, it is just a number that has been publicized so much that it wouldn't be that stretch of the imagination to see a profit taking bounce from there, is what I was getting at.... I doubt any production cuts won't be announced until she is at-50 but who knows....

Many people didn't find reasons for Oil drop and now it is a fact. It is good to review the assumptions from time to time and look at the situation with a fresh and unprejudiced eye.

The downward thrust from June 2014 high is typical of a trending Elliott Wave (3), with probable target towards 261% Fib ratio extension or shorter. And there will be a correction of wave (4) and the (5)th wave to go before a real long term bottom can be seen.

Just can't stand these 40pip fluctuation zones... Drives me nuts

Technical analysis is useless here, try to feel the market and don't play against it, it is good to listen to the news or squawks

Really
TA is what i'ved used and have been very successful.
Good luck to you and hope YOU LOTS OF GREEN PIPS

What at did we get to? 60.17? Now I'm thinking back to the 63 level? Thoughts?

60 broken. this is getting scary

not yet, next is 58 and 54 maybe it will be hold

There are news that Fibro, one of the biggest hedge fund trading oil is liquidating its positions on Futures markets, because it ceases its operations in US.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...ro-liquidating

usoil current $59.40

current view


remember this chart from nov 28


update

just what i'ved been saying since june.....

Rising Dollar and Falling Oil Could Be Recipe for a U.S. Asset Boom
From wsj.com
http://www.forexfactory.com/resource...tory-quote.png
The shifting global economic landscape has important implications for how the U.S. recovery – and the trajectory of U.S. dollar asset prices – will evolve in 2015. A strong dollar and weak growth overseas portend downward pressure on U.S. exports. At the same time, these forces combined with falling commodities put downward pressure on domestic inflation. That could restrain interest rates even if the Federal Reserve wants to start nudging them higher. A strong dollar also points to increased capital flows into the United States. Capital flows and low interest rates, in turn, could be a formula for more consumer spending and asset price ... (full story)

now you ask when will production be breakeven to some of the drilling sites....

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...prices-2014-11


Here Are The Breakeven Oil Prices For Every Drilling Project In The World

http://static3.businessinsider.com/i...les-udland.jpg

1. Myles Udland

1. Nov. 28, 2014, 11:21 AM
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Update, December 8: Oil is still getting crushed.
On Monday morning, both Brent and WTI crude oil were resuming their slide lower, making five-year lows as oil has failed to meaningfully recover from the huge decline that was set off by the OPEC announcement that it would not move to curb production.
And now that oil prices have fallen more than 30% in just the last six or so months, everyone wants to know how low prices can go before oil projects start shutting down, particularly US shale projects.
In a note in mid-November, Citi's Ed Morse highlighted this chart, showing that for most US shale plays, costs are below $80 a barrel.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/i...612/oil-16.pngCiti

Morse writes that if Brent price move towards $60 — they're currently around $72 — a "significant" amount of shale production would be challenged.
But Morse also highlighted this dizzying chart, listing the breakeven price for every international oil company project through 2020. (You can save it to your computer and zoom in for a closer look.)
http://static1.businessinsider.com/i...breakevens.pngCitiThe US shale plays

Over the last few years, Morse writes that companies have been willing to consider projects if they can sell the project's oil for $90 a barrel.
And while the chart shows that almost every project that has been considered by companies to this point has required prices less than $90 to break-even, Morse writes that companies are canceling projects that require oil prices above $80 a barrel to break-even as the futures market has made hedging above that price a challenge.
And beyond the implications for the economic feasibility of projects right now, there are also implications for future global supply.
"We think the world has plenty of oil at $90 going forward," Morse writes, "but supply may be less adequate on a sustainable basis at prices much below $70...even though on a shorter-term basis, US shale production can continue to grow robustly even at lower prices."
Last month, Business Insider's Shane Ferro also highlighted comments from analysts at Morgan Stanley, who write that while we're focused on lower prices today shutting down projects, potentially supply shortfalls and upward price shocks in the future could be even more harmful in the future.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...#ixzz3Ld3U2i4i

hmmm. making new lows already today. it's like its on a mission for newer low targets

I'm thinking that when it hit's 52 I'll be ready to go long...
It's a waiting game.

look at this chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1418332602

The latest commitment of traders report is pretty shocking. Hedge funds doubled down on their bets as oil prices continued to crash while the commercials continued to sell into the market, presumably to hedge their production. Looks like the US shale oil companies are prepared for a long drawn out war with OPEC, this is going to be very ugly, every single bounce will be sold, it will be that way until it no longer makes sense to sell i.e they'd lose money if they sold at that price. For now several shale oil producers are still profitable, I think this will go below 50$ easily.

Usoil hmmmmmm UAE wants $40 now......interesting


U.A.E. Sees OPEC Output Unchanged Even If Oil Falls to $40
From bloomberg.com
OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said. OPEC won’t immediately change its Nov. 27 decision to keep the group’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day, Suhail Al-Mazrouei said. Venezuela supports an OPEC meeting given the price slide, though the country hasn’t officially requested one, an official at Venezuela’s foreign ministry said Dec. 12. The group is due to meet again on June 5. “We are not going to change our minds ... (full story)

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=517611