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The similarity system

  • #13,241
  • Dec 13, 2014 4:57am Dec 13, 2014 4:57am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} It is already said that there is a serious flaw with this kind of calculations with this statistics. The same is true for the calculation for probability of success imo. Besides, not fully resolving within h-bars does not necessarily mean losing. I don’t know why people do that, you can ask them.




Exactly that was the whole time one of my points of critique here.

But rather to enlighten me, coming up with explanation, or engaging in discussion, I was called a troll etc. from some of the suspects here.


A good starting point would have been, if the single probabilities of the different TF's are really independent, or if there is "something" which makes them dependent.

OK, since a lot of the former members are not here anymore, for which they also fully blame me , as it seems, I will direct the question to all the many members here, who were so thankful to EURUSDD etc. for enlightening them and have claimed to fully understand it (and of course to trade "it" successfully).

Anyone?
  • #13,242
  • Dec 13, 2014 5:06am Dec 13, 2014 5:06am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} I don’t defend the “99,999% probability”. I know how they come up with these “probabilities” but there is a serious flaw with the calculations. I defend the ideas presented here, because it can give people an edge. The only thing you can hear me say is this: ‘At certain times there is a good change that one thing will happen over another”. Many traders think like this, otherwise they don’t trade. I don’t say that you say this but saying that the ideas presented here are BS is the same as saying that the ZigZag indicator does not repaint....
I fully agree on every sentence here. Every sentence........

Ask our member Dr.Phoenix what he found out regarding the "similarity" thing, which gave connection to some of my volume analysis. Hint: volume "gaps"
  • #13,243
  • Dec 20, 2014 3:35am Dec 20, 2014 3:35am
whats new?
  • #13,244
  • Dec 20, 2014 8:45am Dec 20, 2014 8:45am
Quoting wireash
whats new?
serious discussion about some topics is not wanted here...
now taking place somewhere else...

Good luck and open minded are always welcome at our new place.
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #13,245
  • Dec 21, 2014 6:51am Dec 21, 2014 6:51am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} serious discussion about some topics is not wanted here... now taking place somewhere else... Good luck and open minded are always welcome at our new place.
where is that?
  • #13,246
  • Dec 22, 2014 7:39am Dec 22, 2014 7:39am
Some empirical analysis...

Strategy:Transient Zone only
Data:EURUSD240min
Sample size:6150

First, I try risk=reward (1:1).
Pictures below are the cumulative return and return. ( 0.1= 1000pips )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.png Size: 54 KB


Next, with constant risk, I changed reward from 0.1 to 10.
The picture below is the 3D plot of cumulative return, risk:reward, and winning ratio. (not very clear, as always)

Attached Image


The best risk:reward is 1:2, and the cumulative return is 0.441850(4418pips).
Pictures below are the cumulative return and return with R:R=1:2.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.png Size: 45 KB


R:R=1:0.1 gives 91.86% of winning ratio, but its cumulative return is 0.1186.
Pictures below are the cumulative return and return with R:R=1:0.1.
Yes, we can achieve >90%, but ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4.png Size: 28 KB


What if transient zone is separated into top/bottom TZ and mid bar TZ. (R:R=1:2)
First picture is about top/bottom TZ, and second picture is about mid bar TZ.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5.png Size: 41 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu6.png Size: 34 KB


Very different result.


Happy holidays!
  • #13,247
  • Dec 22, 2014 5:11pm Dec 22, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting jimsterk
Some empirical analysis... Strategy:Transient Zone only Data:EURUSD240min Sample size:6150 First, I try risk=reward (1:1). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return. ( 0.1= 1000pips ) {image} Next, with constant risk, I changed reward from 0.1 to 10. The picture below is the 3D plot of cumulative return, risk:reward, and winning ratio. (not very clear, as always) {image} The best risk:reward is 1:2, and the cumulative return is 0.441850(4418pips). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return with R:R=1:2. {image} R:R=1:0.1 gives...
Jimsterk, Can you turn your PM on please? Your work is interesting and there are better places to discuss it than this old thread...
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #13,248
  • Dec 25, 2014 5:20pm Dec 25, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting jimsterk
Some empirical analysis... Strategy:Transient Zone only Data:EURUSD240min Sample size:6150 First, I try risk=reward (1:1). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return. ( 0.1= 1000pips ) {image} Next, with constant risk, I changed reward from 0.1 to 10. The picture below is the 3D plot of cumulative return, risk:reward, and winning ratio. (not very clear, as always) {image} The best risk:reward is 1:2, and the cumulative return is 0.441850(4418pips). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return with R:R=1:2. {image} R:R=1:0.1 gives...

  • #13,249
  • Dec 25, 2014 5:32pm Dec 25, 2014 5:32pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7962148#post7962148

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7962150#post7962150


and my reply


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7962271#post7962271
  • #13,250
  • Dec 26, 2014 1:34am Dec 26, 2014 1:34am
Quoting jimsterk
Some empirical analysis... Strategy:Transient Zone only Data:EURUSD240min Sample size:6150 First, I try risk=reward (1:1). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return. ( 0.1= 1000pips ) {image} Next, with constant risk, I changed reward from 0.1 to 10. The picture below is the 3D plot of cumulative return, risk:reward, and winning ratio. (not very clear, as always) {image} The best risk:reward is 1:2, and the cumulative return is 0.441850(4418pips). Pictures below are the cumulative return and return with R:R=1:2. {image} R:R=1:0.1 gives...
quod erat demonstrandum



D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #13,251
  • Edited 8:30am Dec 27, 2014 7:55am | Edited 8:30am
Hi,

Can somebody upload this StochDiffzones indicator for me? I am using MT4 build 765. So ex4 file is preferred.

Also, Finally I could not understand how this system works although there is 663 pages of discussion here.
  • #13,252
  • Dec 28, 2014 4:06am Dec 28, 2014 4:06am
why does the divergence of stochastic and price happen. If we look at the formula the divergence should happen only due to the moving of the ''window'' of bars we are looking to. But I don't see how this should matter, so I guess there is something else. What else could cause the divergence to happen?
  • #13,253
  • Dec 31, 2014 5:53am Dec 31, 2014 5:53am
it seems to me this thread and similar just has made to attract visitors and increase the Google rank and popularity, the methods that actually will not work in practice.
  • #13,254
  • Jan 5, 2015 12:27am Jan 5, 2015 12:27am
Samking you are right about similarity...all was a scam by EURUSDD and I can prove anything...great FF admin that banned more than one member that was involve in this case.......who have start this thread have no idea how to trade.....believe me.....
  • #13,255
  • Jan 5, 2015 1:05am Jan 5, 2015 1:05am
Quoting ginger
I can prove anything...great FF admin that banned more than one member that was involve in this case.......who have start this thread have no idea how to trade.....believe me.....
Sorry, it's hard to believe you. I believe that over 97% of the recently revoked members in the last witchhunting act are not scamming artists. Au contrary the very valueable contributers. I think FF got a big hit of losing reputation with that what happened. It's just a shame.
  • #13,256
  • Jan 5, 2015 3:42am Jan 5, 2015 3:42am
I can tell you that most of that guy have no idea how to trade...
  • #13,257
  • Jan 5, 2015 4:05am Jan 5, 2015 4:05am
Quoting ginger
I can tell you that most of that guy have no idea how to trade...

and you still feel that the revocation of Vigovski was not OK?
  • #13,258
  • Jan 5, 2015 4:12am Jan 5, 2015 4:12am
I try to trust to people because I thing that in FF forum we have guys that can help each other but was my mistake...my conclusion is that who know trading will not help others..
  • #13,259
  • Jan 5, 2015 4:26am Jan 5, 2015 4:26am
let me say the system work the one did start the trade had an idea but was stuck so to have this forum did help others to see the big picture they did only give a clue to it was to the individual to work out his own system and take advantage of it a hand full smart traders did but never share they secret actually was almost the holy grail so FOREX FACTORY did step in to ban some of the best adviser also was another twist or did put a nail in the coffin.
  • #13,260
  • Jan 5, 2015 4:28am Jan 5, 2015 4:28am
Quoting ellenbrook
let me say the system work the one did start the trade had an idea but was stuck so to have this forum did help others to see the big picture they did only give a clue to it was to the individual to work out his own system and take advantage of it a hand full smart traders did but never share they secret actually was almost the holy grail so FOREX FACTORY did step in to ban some of the best adviser also was another twist or did put a nail in the coffin.

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