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  • #401
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:34am Dec 31, 2014 11:34am
dnkhoward2--I know you didn't ask me but I think I can answer at least some of your question. With the MT4 platform (which is what the post in question shows), you can change the scaling a number of ways. First of all with your Plus (+) and minus (-) key you can make the candles bigger and smaller...this changes the scaling in so far as how close you see the price candles. You can accomplish the same task by clicking and dragging your mouse across the bottom scale, where the dates show...it changes how much time you are viewing.

You can also change the scaling on a vertical axis by clicking and dragging your mouse along the price scale at the right side of the screen. This will allow you to see more or less price in the same window as opposed to more or less time on the horizontal scale.

I hope this helps some.

Eggs--Looks like your EUR/USD short is starting to take off...nice entry. You have inspired me to do some improvements and re-evaluation of my entry techniques. I am currently practicing a better way of entering that has much improved my intraday trading. Thank you for your help!!

To all reading--I hope this past year taught you valuable lessons that you can put to use this new year and that this new year brings all the joy and abundance you are seeking. Lets put 2014 in the books with positive and productive sentiment.
  • #402
  • Dec 31, 2014 12:02pm Dec 31, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting gspajon
dnkhoward2--I know you didn't ask me but I think I can answer at least some of your question. With the MT4 platform (which is what the post in question shows), you can change the scaling a number of ways. First of all with your Plus (+) and minus (-) key you can make the candles bigger and smaller...this changes the scaling in so far as how close you see the price candles. You can accomplish the same task by clicking and dragging your mouse across the bottom scale, where the dates show...it changes how much time you are viewing. You can also change...
Hi gspajon,

Thank you for your help and reply. I do know about all the scaling abilities you mentioned. Thanks again. Those ways were not getting me the results I was seeing on eggs chart. I noticed the font on the price and date were smaller and I was wondering if that had anything to do with the different scaling I am seeing. I could very well be wrong about all this.

I appreciate the help. Thanks to all the generous and friendly people here helping people and sharing the things you have learned.

Have a great day and a happy and prosperous New Year!
  • #403
  • Jan 1, 2015 12:35pm Jan 1, 2015 12:35pm
Hi gspajon;

I've enjoyed reading your thread, it's been like looking in a mirror.

Keep up the good work and thanks again for your insights into Trading Price Action.
  • #404
  • Jan 1, 2015 1:39pm Jan 1, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting stevepatt
Hi gspajon; I've enjoyed reading your thread, it's been like looking in a mirror. Keep up the good work and thanks again for your insights into Trading Price Action.
Thank you very much Stevepatt. I appreciate very much your comments...Happy New Year
  • #405
  • Jan 2, 2015 10:11am Jan 2, 2015 10:11am
For any of you who is unfamiliar with the "FU stop"...there it is below...

I HATE these...the market comes down right to your stop, takes it then immediately moves your way again. For me this is my nemesis. It tells me I am moving my stop too soon and that I am getting impatient with the trade. So I must wait more and be more patient.

Gold is a commodity (DUH!) and as such is not usually as volatile as most currencies. So I believe I am trading too close to the market; ie, my time frame is too small. I will take this out to weekly and monthly charts and see how things go from there. So I will not probably update this pair for several weeks until I see another set up on a larger time frame.
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  • #406
  • Jan 2, 2015 10:25am Jan 2, 2015 10:25am
Stalking this trade:

Last week Jumanji gave a heads up on this pair. While at first I couldn't find it on my platform, I since called the broker and he added it for me.

We can see here a clear trend break out from the last high and now a pull back starting. I have highlighted the area which I feel is the closest resistance (turned support) area which falls nicely between the 38.2% and 50% levels on the fibo scale. I will watch to see where the reversal pattern starts to form. As well I will start using a technique I am learning on the day trading side to better pinpoint an entry spot...(assuming I can get it right).

The probabilities for me do not change, it is only the efficiency of the entry and therefore the amount of my account I place at risk that improves. And as things move in my favor this method provides a way to add into to positions...we'll see...first things first...the entry and that must be stalked for now.
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  • #407
  • Jan 2, 2015 10:44am Jan 2, 2015 10:44am
Quoting gspajon
For any of you who is unfamiliar with the "FU stop"...there it is below... I HATE these...the market comes down right to your stop, takes it then immediately moves your way again. For me this is my nemesis. It tells me I am moving my stop too soon and that I am getting impatient with the trade. So I must wait more and be more patient. Gold is a commodity (DUH!) and as such is not usually as volatile as most currencies. So I believe I am trading too close to the market; ie, my time frame is too small. I will take this out to weekly and monthly charts...
GS
one of the reasons I often do not use stops. You had your stop right along with thousands of other traders. Problem is that all technical traders read the same 'rule book' and put stops below/above support/resistance or trend-line breaks etc. Technicians are the easiest to spot for large traders (stop hunters) easy prey for those who know what to look for.
piphunt11
  • #408
  • Edited 11:07am Jan 2, 2015 10:51am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting piphunt11
{quote} GS one of the reasons I often do not use stops. You had your stop right along with thousands of other traders. Problem is that all technical traders read the same 'rule book' and put stops below/above support/resistance or trend-line breaks etc. Technicians are the easiest to spot for large traders (stop hunters) easy prey for those who know what to look for.
An excellent point and one I understand completely. However, I feel that stops (at least for me) are my main risk management tool. As much as I complain about the market finding them, they have saved me from devastating losses countless more times. I just hate to see the market go back in my direction without me after investing so much time (and money) into getting it right...at least so I think.

This is more a lesson for me than anything else and a signal that I still need to work on my trading mindset. Quite honestly I was growing impatient with my longs, having held them for what I thought was a considerably longer time that I thought should be to see some progress.

Going out to longer time frames will help (ironic isn't it?) because I will only look at these trades once a week and ignore all the day-to-day noise on the commodities.
  • #409
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:57am Jan 2, 2015 11:57am
New Trade Opportunity:

USD/CAD - Long

I am taking a page from Egg's book on this trade. Below you can clearly see a bullish trend that consolidated over the end holiday season and had now broken above. I have set a pending order for a possible retest of this to confirm the support level with a stop below the consolidation period.

This is a deviation from my regular trading method, which normally waits for a retrace. However as there was no retrace on this market it appears strong. I will see if I get filled on a retest of this resistance level. I have looked at this and back tested this type of entry and find they are about 75% successful ("success" being measured as giving a lead on the market.) I haven't quite worked out the targets so I am going to hold into the trend and see where it goes.
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  • #410
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:02pm Jan 2, 2015 12:02pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting dnkhoward2
{quote} Hi eggs. Thanks for the reply. It was the chart you posted on post 392. There just seems to be more candles appearing on your chart. The prices in the margin and the dates are smaller too. I thought this might be some special setting I couldn't figure out. Maybe it's the monitor. I have a 20" HP Widescreen. Thanks for any help and have a great New Year!
Hello again Howard. I'm sure this must just be an unexplained anomaly as I run a standard MT4 platform. The most likely explanation has been outlined in clear detail by GS earlier (thank you sir). It's probably just your eyes playing tricks on you. I wish I could help you more.
  • #411
  • Jan 2, 2015 12:56pm Jan 2, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting gspajon
New Trade Opportunity: USD/CAD - Long I am taking a page from Egg's book on this trade. Below you can clearly see a bullish trend that consolidated over the end holiday season and had now broken above. I have set a pending order for a possible retest of this to confirm the support level with a stop below the consolidation period. This is a deviation from my regular trading method, which normally waits for a retrace. However as there was no retrace on this market it appears strong. I will see if I get filled on a retest of this resistance level....

Hi gspajon;

I don't know if you look at Higher Time Frames for Swing Points before taking a Trade?

I'd expect there to be quite a lot of Pending Orders around this area. (See chart below)

The Weekly TF hasn't seen a significant Pullback in the last six weeks.

I'm not trying to butt in to your style of Trading just something I think worth considering.
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  • #412
  • Jan 2, 2015 2:07pm Jan 2, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi gspajon; I don't know if you look at Higher Time Frames for Swing Points before taking a Trade? I'd expect there to be quite a lot of Pending Orders around this area. (See chart below) The Weekly TF hasn't seen a significant Pullback in the last six weeks. I'm not trying to butt in to your style of Trading just something I think worth considering. {image}
Yes Steve (may I call you "Steve"?)...I do absolutely consider swing points on higher AND lower time frames. And to your point, my last trade on this pair used this area as a take profit point.

This type of entry is not one I usually use, but have found it to be most effective if it triggers. Especially considering the willingness of traders (order flow) to take price higher, I think it worth the risk as outlined above. I will watch for price to consolidate or retrace into the supply areas you have outlined. and will try to adjust my risk (or profit) accordingly. But until price actually gets there most of our speculation is just academic. We won't really know until it happens...and I'm still waiting on a fill...
  • #413
  • Jan 2, 2015 2:32pm Jan 2, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Yes Steve (may I call you "Steve"?)...I do absolutely consider swing points on higher AND lower time frames. And to your point, my last trade on this pair used this area as a take profit point. This type of entry is not one I usually use, but have found it to be most effective if it triggers. Especially considering the willingness of traders (order flow) to take price higher, I think it worth the risk as outlined above. I will watch for price to consolidate or retrace into the supply areas you have outlined. and will try to adjust my risk...

Hi gspajon;

Calling me Steve is fine with me

Like you say these levels are just speculation at the moment and as long as we are aware that they are there we should follow where the market leads us.

If the Market is going up (or down) keep following until it tells us otherwise I think that's usually a good philosophy.

I'll be also watching this pair for a Pullback, I don't know if I have the balls for a Limit Buy been burned using them in the past.
  • #414
  • Jan 2, 2015 3:19pm Jan 2, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} Hello again Howard. I'm sure this must just be an unexplained anomaly as I run a standard MT4 platform. The most likely explanation has been outlined in clear detail by GS earlier (thank you sir). It's probably just your eyes playing tricks on you. I wish I could help you more.
OK eggs. Thanks again.
  • #415
  • Jan 4, 2015 4:17pm Jan 4, 2015 4:17pm
Update on USD/JPY:

Price has created a small range below the last high, and then tested the weak longs to close again back inside the range. This range is starting to look suspiciously like a lower high forming, which could bring a counter trend move back down toward the 111-108 area. With the start of the new week, I have moved my stop up to lock a little over 200 pips, and will hold this position until price decides which way its going to go.
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  • #416
  • Jan 5, 2015 3:42pm Jan 5, 2015 3:42pm
OK...I've looked at this market until I'm blue in the face and my back hurts from this nasty hard chair I'm sitting in. I may be just deluding myself, but every which way I look at this market I come up with a bullish bias. Here is my reasoning:

Monthly Chart - Is there anyone who looks at this chart and can argue a bearish bias? While I agree that price has plummeted from just about "bubble" status for gold, the price of gold has come down to the "golden ratio" line (yes pun intended), and has just sat there now for a year. Even more telling is that the last 4 months have produced a range ON THE MONTHLY CHART, that appears to be the buyers and sellers squaring off.

Weekly Chart - Since mid October, price has consolidated around the 1190-1200 range and is currently right smack in the middle of the range, telling me that there is no clear winner in the battle, buyers or sellers. You can look at even lower time frames and see the range with more definition if you like but this chart tells the story (for me)

Conclusions: Bears have lost their mojo (for now). It looks to me like price will bound around in this range a little more until some big money comes into the picture to move price one way or the other.

Add to this the fundamental news that almost all the world (except the US) is easing monetary policy AND the US seem to be in no hurry to tighten just yet. That leaves me with a very bullish outlook...but heck I've been completely wrong about this pair on just about every trade since July.

Actions: I intent to place a pending buy order at the 1157 level (right at the cross hairs (circled) on the weekly chart. If I am filled AND I'm wrong, I will know very quickly I think...

Any opposing opinions...come on all you gold bears...educate me...(kindly please)
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  • #417
  • Jan 6, 2015 6:23am Jan 6, 2015 6:23am
You are right gspajon about your gold analysis - post 416

Even though the bulls have it, i still see it this way.
Price has just broken the 1206 area which was resistance in 2009 December resistance (monthly) also became support in 2010 June, 2013 June, and several support levels in the recent past.
I'm thinking that price will pullback to 1206 area again before it shoots up
or
the current breakout will be a fake breakout which will let price tumble back down to around 1157.

But most likely i see price keeping it up after the minor pullback and shooting for 1230 area (which is the next resistance level - monthly trend line)
thanks for reading
  • #418
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:27pm Jan 7, 2015 2:27pm
Trade opportunity GBP/AUD:

Below is shown a daily chart of GBP/AUD. A clear uptrend is in place with higher lows and higher highs forming. Currently price is in a pull back that has come right into the area targeted previously (post 406). While today's candle has not yet completely closed, I am confident nothing will change the picture in the next two hours. An inner bar has formed. These formations usually carry a 76% chance of success up to the first target.

I have placed a pending order above the high of today's bar with a take profit as shown here that comes in just below the high. I was fortunate to have also entered another position that came in only a few pips from the low of yesterday's price action. I entered this position manually using the concept of "resistance turned support". this type of entry has been inspired by eggs and others who have commented more on this subject no only here but in other forums. I have been researching and testing this method of entry and find it superior to what I have been using, however, it does introduce a greater frequency of losers if not utilized carefully.

So for those who wish a more "conservative" approach to entering, I still use the method outlined at the beginning of this forum, but in my intraday trading, I have found it to be quite useful to be a bit more agressive. The loss is smaller albeit more frequent. The more conservative entry looses less often, but looses more when it does lose...so I find its about the same overall risk exposure to my account, with the added benefit that by using both, I can increase my positions size without having to increase my overall risk.

You're call practice, with each type and decide which you wish to use...the method of finding trading opportunities does not change...look for the market flow, and don't trade against it...the market flow should be obvious and if its not...don't trade it.
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  • #419
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:40pm Jan 7, 2015 2:40pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Hello simple uncomplicated & hello GS. Things have been pretty quite for me over the holiday weeks & I'm looking forward to the 1st quarter of trading. I've relinquished my focus to the EU exclusively as of late & have only placed a handful of trades.

That said I will be looking for buying opps on the UJ in the near future. Fellow Factory member Pedro pointed out a clear ABCD setup earlier today in the EU thread. It could be the 1st clear impulse move of the year. It's still too early to tell but something I'll be hawking none the less.

Some are selling the USD but I'll be looking for this setup to unfold into potential buying opps around the FIB extensions 141 & 161 that you see below. Not that you really need them to see the support on the Daily chart at the 117.xx handle. None the less they do provide that extra level of confluence that makes us all feel warm & fuzzy.

GS...I realize your recent positions might have been tripped by your trailing stop & that's a good thing. Profits are hard to come by & you have to take what you can get. Hopefully your bullish bias will remain & provide you re-entry points.
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  • #420
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:05am Jan 8, 2015 8:05am
Hello eggs. While I don't normally see or understand the "a,b,c, or 1-2-3-4-5" Elliot wave theory, I think I do agree that the USD/JPY is turning bearish for the near future. My take on it is as follows - again inspired by your way of thinking to wit, old support becomes new resistance.

Price has been in a significant up trend with almost no sign of retracement for quite awhile. This last week and over the holidays, price formed a small range which I mentioned earlier looked suspiciously like a lower high. This lower high breaks the pattern of higher highs, and represents a significant equalization of the larger order flow.

Price has now broken below the range and through the support it created. Now price is testing that support/now turned resistance, and it appears to be holding.

I have placed a sell order with the anticipation of lower prices. I am using a weekly chart as my guide to see how low we go. I am thinking somewhere around the 109-111 area...as the weekly chart hasn't had a significant retrace in almost 3 months.

Once we get down into that area I will look again for another consolidation and trail the stop down to lock profit...this may take a few weeks, so i'll have to be patient.
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