MarketProfile and momentum

AUDNZD:

Looks like demand coming in at the lows. (1.485)

Chart: Volume showing demand.

Analysis:

Chart: Kaixo statistics showing trend.

Chart: GBPUSD.

Chart: EURUSD.

Chart: GBPJPY.

oMG! I thought its was an atari game ! good work mate!

GBPJPY:

Action: Initiate short position.

Action: Stop loss above 188.82

Report: Trading fractal too large, switch shorter for stop placement.

Chart: GBPJPY 30 second fractal.

Action: Await 187.27 for short entry.

Error: Kaixo statistics reports GBPJPY to be a long call.

Action: Cancel short order.

Review: Oops, looks like Christmas day hangover blurring my logic.

Action: Long order at 186.97

Action: Stop order at 186.73

Thank you, I like the 8 bit style

Analysis:

Alright a very busy Monday here so far. Lets get some analysis ready for the next few days.

Chart: Some nice opportunities in the JPY crosses.

Chart: USDJPY seems dry on volume, AUD and NZD crosses however seem to be attracting some interest.

Chart: Comparative volume study.

Chart: Showing relative strength of the NZD vs AUD.

Chart: Scrollable NZDJPY. Excess volume seen between 93.8 and 93.9 looks like distribution of excess.

NZDJPY:

Analysis:

So I'm seeing some supply on my chart around 93.85.

I'll wait for that supply to be tested and initiate a long position on a number 2+/3 spring.

Levels:

I'm watching 93.75 when supply is dry and 93.6 if not.

AUDNZD:

Chart: System exit: As supply dries up.

NZDJPY:

A short from the highs of supply yesterday would have done well.

Chart: Supply dries up below 93.4.

NZDJPY:

Sign of Strength (SOS)

We're now awaiting a reaction for a LPS (Last point of support) for our long entry.

NZDJPY:

And there is our Long entry.

A little large on volatility, yet volume shows low repsonse.

NZDJPY:

LPS shows demand.

NZDJPY:

LPS failure as supply at exit.

NZDJPY:

I wasn't expecting such a surge in short volatility.

Possibilities:

A: We had a lot of short interest, and the SOS was an upthrust at highs, cleaning the books. This would be bearish.

B: Someone unloaded a lot of inventory at the exit of the LPS, this would require waiting for a retrace to test that supply.

Notes:

From entry price has plumeted 20 pips from my entry, and is well below the 93.4 supply dryup.

If rebounding price regains this level then assume Number 2 spring.

Chart: Long chart for future analysis.

Can anyone suggest how this entry might be improved upon?

NZDJPY:

Perhaps if we drew trendlines as shown:

We would not have taken the trade until the slower trend had been breached.

In this way perhaps the entry was an aggressive one.

In such cases perhaps consider compensating for excess risk by tightening the stop loss.

NZDJPY:

Hindsight entry is always 20:20, we'll have to work with what we have.

NZDJPY:

NZDJPY:

Chart: I like the overflowing highs, showing plenty of coerced demand.

NZDJPY:

Chart: Overnight supply at midline.

NZDJPY:

Chart: Recorrection of trend error in previous post.

NZDJPY:

So lets take a look at what seems to be happening to our position.

There seems to be a declining short interest below 93.4

1. Stop losses below 93.5 when triggered release coerced liquidity into the market.
2. Demand absorbs this supply and any short sports, and then moves the market above its position

At the right of the chart we see a bull foray into supply, which is met and countered by said supply above 93.7.

I assume that traders long from the previous high look to close their long positions at or near BE giving this latent supply.

However remembering that a few days ago we saw distribution of excess at 94.00 we should proceed carefully as supply could be building up for a downwards push.

Action: Set TakeProfit half position @ 94.41

Happy new year, enjoy the party.