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It seems impossible to make money in the long run

  • #41
  • Dec 28, 2014 3:07pm Dec 28, 2014 3:07pm
Im sorry but this is one of the most ridiculous threads on FF, just because you cant make trading seem to work for you..it does not mean you generalise it completely as a failure and spread your low esteem to other people, in my opinion this shouldent even be up. If you fail and dont find the energy to keep trying then give up on trading, but dont come and cry on here. you have to find success on your own because nobody will feed it to you..
YOUR MOTHERS ASS
  • #42
  • Edited 5:18pm Dec 28, 2014 5:00pm | Edited 5:18pm
I must admit that this thread is quite depressing. I think that statements such as the thread title need to be bound in qualifiers such as 'trading the short term timeframe' etc.

In my opinion on the larger timeframes, market behaviour appears to be quite rational whereas due to its chaotic nature (complexity) the ability to trade sustainably on the short term timeframe is extremely problematic.

When you look at general price movement of a pair on say the monthly timeframe, there are perfectly valid reasons for why a pair trends, and this is usually summed up by the economics of the pair concerned. For example the recent fall in the ruble is to be expected given Russia's dependency on the energy price. The same way that the Aussie dollar is significantly biased by its economic dependency on commodities.

If you have a look at an M1 chart then when looking at trends over the long term where price goes from say a low of A to a high of B on say 1 or 2 years, then this price movement is attributed to the actions of huge numbers of market participants who over the long term have adopted the opinion that this is where price value lies. Typically this overall consensus is built up over time, tied to fundamental economics and is rarely a short term phenomenon. If you believe that underlying economics is the fundamental driver over the long term, then to get from Point A to Point B, there must be periods of trending to achieve this. You can never exactly predict when this will occur or the exact path it will take, but you can use the longer term timeframe as an indicator of the likely market bias towards that outcome and therefore trade in this general direction with an edge. With this as the backbone to your strategy, you can take informed bets of when and where to place your trades to benefit from this propensity.

What we need to appreciate is that the market is 'chaotic' but not 'random'. It is like reading the weather. You cannot with certainty predict the exact time for when it rains but you can, with an understanding of how weather patterns unfold, predict the probability of such an event.

In general the market is quite orderly on the larger timeframes but with the volume of participants, each with their own trading agendas, it is impossible to predict price outcomes on the short term timeframe without perfect knowledge which in theory is possible but in practice impossible. Like any chaotic system, when significant events disturb the equilibrium, that is when orderly behaviour turns into truly chaotic behaviour and a time to be very careful when trading the markets. During rapid price movements, the impact this has on the vast number of participants cannot be predicted and this is when trading using predictable techniques goes out the door.

If you are sufferring from trading blues and believe that the market is rigged or that it is a zero sum game, then take a breather and learn a new technique that seeks to find order in this chaos. Most of us have gone through these phases in our trading lives. Your ability as a trader are defined by these moments. Don't be another casualty of war. :-)
  • #43
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:20pm Dec 28, 2014 5:20pm
Quoting Copernicus
I must admit that this thread is quite depressing. I think that statements such as the thread title need to be bound in qualifiers such as 'trading the short term timeframe' etc. In my opinion on the larger timeframes, market behaviour appears to be quite rational whereas due to its chaotic nature (complexity) the ability to trade sustainably on the short term timeframe is extremely problematic. When you look at general price movement of a pair on say the monthly timeframe, there are perfectly valid reasons for why a pair trends, and this is usually...
spot on. TA is completely unproven unless there are fundamental reasons to back it up
http://www.stockopedia.com/content/t...harting-63806/
tradewith60
  • #44
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:24pm Dec 28, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting Unabletrader
{quote} When you scalp, fees nd spreads represent a different amount thant when you're a swing trader. on EURUSD, I scalp with a global spread of 1: spread 0.2 + commission 8 dollars/lot. My average TP is 7,4. So I pay about more than 10% of my return to make money which is huge. If I were a well-capitlazed trader making huge volume traded per month, I could reach a global spread of 0.5. 0.2+commission 3 dollars/lot With a global spread of 0.5 I could aim 3.7 pips and I will be still paying 13% of my return. It's very important.
Actually, once you place an order no matter if you are a SWING TRADER or scalper the constant is SPREAD, and commission if any. Swingers in fact pay MORE, because of the swaps (should your broker charge it) as it would be an additional pip or 2 on avg depending on the broker. So really the broker doesn´t charge you any more or any less if you are a swinger or a scalper, and suggesting other wise would reveal that you have not yet grasped the basics of spreads and commission. Remember the spread and commission is taken the moment you take the trade. Your expected r:R doesn´t play into where you exit as it is what you are expectation the market to do.
  • #45
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:41pm Dec 28, 2014 5:41pm
Quoting Copernicus
I must admit that this thread is quite depressing. I think that statements such as the thread title need to be bound in qualifiers such as 'trading the short term timeframe' etc. In my opinion on the larger timeframes, market behaviour appears to be quite rational whereas due to its chaotic nature (complexity) the ability to trade sustainably on the short term timeframe is extremely problematic. When you look at general price movement of a pair on say the monthly timeframe, there are perfectly valid reasons for why a pair trends, and this is usually...
The poster is clearly pro swing trading, and uses words as chaotic to describe the MOTHER of every tf. The reality is looking at what has happened to ruble or EUR makes swing trading look like a piece of cake, but how would you describe when current event clearly is in favor of a currency pair, and the price action goes completely in the opposite direct? You will have hundred of explaining as to why the price went in the opposite direction, but the only constant remains being that an ENGULF occurred on the lower tf, and after that engulf the price has never looked back. It is much easier to place a trade and sit back and wait for it to hit your expected tf, but even with current event news, you will always have high impact news which can switch the direction right away. Have a look at EU right before the mario speech which caused the drop... Wasn´t eu in a 2 year uptrend? Before any higher tf CONFIRMED the trend reversal, the lower tf already had an engulf which never was engulfed back to the buy side. The poster above even went as far as saying that you can never guess the price in which the price will reverse, which of course is true, yet the reversal can come at any given time, so respecting the complex price action and understanding how it works is what we should all focus on. People call lower tf complex, only because they can not spot the trend reversal or extension formations which they trade on the higher tf. To sum it up, higher tf trading is much more prevalent in social trading, and we all know that over 95% of the traders end up margin calling before they ever withdraw. So that should tell you something about higher tf trading.
  • #46
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:44pm Dec 28, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} spot on. TA is completely unproven unless there are fundamental reasons to back it up http://www.stockopedia.com/content/t...harting-63806/
TA trumps fundementals as, fundementals can change based on current events. TA is much more structured and has it´s rules which makes it much easier to trade. A fundemental move can normally be shorted lived, and can be over turned by the latest new which was released.
  • #47
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:48pm Dec 28, 2014 5:48pm
Hi "Unable",

My answer is yes there definately are many successful traders, I have seen them face to face but remember, "many are called, few are chosen" and "those who know - don't tell, and those who tell - don't know". (sure, include me in that but I am just passing on personal observations that I have been VERY lucky to be privy to).

Trading online is not very different to when people would get up the courage to lease a seat and trade on the floor, except that it's way easier and way more accessible now via online platforms. That also means there are massive numbers of participants (mostly small) and therefore a lot more noise.

But... the bell curve of returns is still much the same. Just ask yourself, how are you gonna get out of the first standard deviation if you're doing the same as them?

As an aside, the most serenely successful trader I've seen runs his profitable positions for months and months. For example he is long USD/JPY at an average of 110 etc.
He doesn't compete in shorter timeframes. I'm not saying that's the best way to trade, but it certainly brings him results. Each add on he makes hardly affects his average price, and once he's past the hard (initial) part of the trade he can grown it into a significant position without any stress. He actually hardly trades at all and would be a broker's worst nightmare. I only mention this because you tried scalping and I wonder if you have looked at longer time frames

Best wishes, excuse, my spelling, English is my first language but I'm in a rush hehe
  • #48
  • Dec 28, 2014 5:48pm Dec 28, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting santos23
Im sorry but this is one of the most ridiculous threads on FF, just because you cant make trading seem to work for you..it does not mean you generalise it completely as a failure and spread your low esteem to other people, in my opinion this shouldent even be up. If you fail and dont find the energy to keep trying then give up on trading, but dont come and cry on here. you have to find success on your own because nobody will feed it to you..
Mr Success can you show us the numbers of withdrawal you made in 2014?
  • #49
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:02pm Dec 28, 2014 6:02pm
Hi it's definitely possible but u know not so much as everybody see in TV or on those stupid websites when u pay a 20 bucks and they gave u a HOly Grail ..
Or brokers with 30 second. charts who say u can trade faster make money faster etc..
I´m trading since 15 in three years i have deleted 3 live micro accounts while a was Scalping or Swing trading i have sayed enough u asshole take a break
After a half year i have opened live again now i´m 20 have got my money back hope to be in profit next year..
But the most important thing was the TIMEFRAME .. now i'm trading long term no stress its just much better for my :-)
Dont give it up ..
  • #50
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:13pm Dec 28, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting KmBioDmoneda
{quote} TA trumps fundementals as, fundementals can change based on current events. TA is much more structured and has it´s rules which makes it much easier to trade. A fundemental move can normally be shorted lived, and can be over turned by the latest new which was released.
well that is your belief, but is completely unproven.
tradewith60
  • #51
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:45pm Dec 28, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting KmBioDmoneda
{quote} Actually, once you place an order no matter if you are a SWING TRADER or scalper the constant is SPREAD, and commission if any. Swingers in fact pay MORE, because of the swaps (should your broker charge it) as it would be an additional pip or 2 on avg depending on the broker. So really the broker doesn´t charge you any more or any less if you are a swinger or a scalper, and suggesting other wise would reveal that you have not yet grasped the basics of spreads and commission. Remember the spread and commission is taken the moment you take...
Swap could be positive.

And we don't care about the fact a trade may be a swing or a short-term trade. What does matter is how much fees are important regarding to your profit.


mxfxbook has a bug, it counts commissions like withdrawals:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Valu...sedfds/1098364


But it's not my real performance. My real one is: (commissions included)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 940px-UKUSA_Map.svg.png Size: 19 KB


If there were no commissions, I would have a performance of 9.9%. There is gap of 4% which is huge regarding to my average risk of 0.2%.

But you guy told me that a swing trading system is more impacted by fees a than short-term one. What a funny forum.
  • #52
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:47pm Dec 28, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
How to find the GEMS in ForexFactory and sift through all the B***S*** Lets open with a joke: Question: How many Geniuses work at FF? Answer: None. Because they still don't know how to solve a simple "member ranking" system ================================== I hardly read stuff here and any other Forex forum... because let's be honest, 97% of the posts at FF are rubbish. Then I see genuine people seeking help, only to be served by Bullsh*t artists, behind their hidden agenda. (Firstly, don't contact me because I won't contact you...
BS artists are going to get u. Dont forget glory hunter EA BS
  • #53
  • Edited 7:29pm Dec 28, 2014 6:48pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting KmBioDmoneda
{quote} The poster is clearly pro swing trading, and uses words as chaotic to describe the MOTHER of every tf.
A trend trader would be the more appropriate for my technique. I am uncertain as to your use of the word chaotic to describe price moves over long timeframes in a particular trending direction with low volatility. That price movement would be fairly orderly and predictable. Chaotic movement describes unpredictable movement. Yes, there are times when price movement can be chaotic (in all timeframes), but there are also long periods of time when price moves are orderly moving between thresholds of overbought and oversold conditions whether moving sideways or up or down. Is it chaos ruling the market on longer timeframes such as M1 or simply the actions of a host of market participants transferring risk? What a trader needs to realise is that this game in the higher timeframes is more about risk transferrance by major market participants than speculation.

Chaotic does not necessarily mean random. There is order in chaos unless of course we are talking about non-classical systems such as Quantum Mechanics, but the decision to buy or sell is binary, hence classical in nature. Here is an example of order and chaos. With perfect information you could predict these patterns. The reality however is that to plot the mechanics of every glycerine atom is mathematically intractable. View the dye and glycerine atoms as the actions of each market participant.

Inserted Video



Quoting KmBioDmoneda
The reality is looking at what has happened to ruble or EUR makes swing trading look like a piece of cake, but how would you describe when current event clearly is in favor of a currency pair, and the price action goes completely in the opposite direct?
All trends come to an end. It is a fact of a traders life. High impact news events are often the signals associated with these events. The market direction following a single event cannot be predicted with confidence as the retail trader just doesn't know the trading decisions of the majors. They could be unloading risk as opposed to speculating and what better time to get a good price in unloading when the retail market believes that price will go the other way. While single events are problematic points in a trade when uncertainty is high, a trader should be particularly cautious around these times and play defensive with tight stops in place. To get from point A to point B, you do not need to take a single ride. Those that do are likely to face excessive drawdowns. Trade conservatively and reduce your expectations. Not every single news event is going to take you out of a trade. Those that go in your direction are going to be windfalls. Therefore manage your positions and particularly your risk tolerance.

Quoting KmBioDmoneda
You will have hundred of explaining as to why the price went in the opposite direction, but the only constant remains being that an ENGULF occurred on the lower tf, and after that engulf the price has never looked back. It is much easier to place a trade and sit back and wait for it to hit your expected tf, but even with current event news, you will always have high impact news which can switch the direction right away. Have a look at EU right before the mario speech which caused the drop... Wasn´t eu in a 2 year uptrend? Before any higher tf CONFIRMED...
I don't dispute the power of price action patterns such as engulfing bars or pin bars. They are particularly useful for certain trading approaches but for more conservative long term traders, single bars of influence simply represent the current outlook in a broader price history. High impact news events occur throughout that price history and the general story can be told by all of them. Do not read too much into a single result but play it safe to stay in the game.


Quoting KmBioDmoneda
To sum it up, higher tf trading is much more prevalent in social trading, and we all know that over 95% of the traders end up margin calling before they ever withdraw. So that should tell you something about higher tf trading.
Well that's just bollocks. The majority of the proven managed funds use simple longer term trend trading techniques with minimal downside risk and unlimited upside potential. As for the margin calls with trend trading, that is where risk management is key to a trend traders living in this market.
  • #54
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:49pm Dec 28, 2014 6:49pm
I have been learning how to trade the Fx Market for roughly six years, with training. I understand all the advanced patterns, Fibonacci's, Bat patterns, butter fly's, Gartleys, Head & shoulders, crowns, support and resistance, on and on ect. And I can analyst a currency pair from Monthly, Weekly, daily, 240, 60 in about five mins, the name of the game is emotions!! Also you can make 100s of pips a day by trading a simple 5 min chart using 3 T3 Tilsons with the DTR (daily trading range) and not one other indicator, not knowing any patterns and not looking at any other time frame, trading the EURO & US sessions 2:00 am till 12:00 noon. It takes a lot of screen time 1000s of hours and the right mind set. I know when I started I was back testing 12 years of data on a 10 min chart on probably 12 pair, you just have to delve into the data!!
Quoting Unabletrader
I've been using a successful scalping trading for 6 weeks now. I've taken more than 50 trades in several markets conditions (huge volatility, poor volat, balanced, imbalanced, newsflow, risk aversion). Today I decide to backtest manually and I've just figured out that it's not as profitable as it looks. To tell the truth I'm suprised. I was thinking 80 trades was enough to prove or not the validity of a system but I was wrong. Is anyone here may show a successful trading explorer for years or several months? (Excuse my poor english)
  • #55
  • Dec 28, 2014 6:54pm Dec 28, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting Hyperion
Hi "Unable", My answer is yes there definately are many successful traders, I have seen them face to face but remember, "many are called, few are chosen" and "those who know - don't tell, and those who tell - don't know". (sure, include me in that but I am just passing on personal observations that I have been VERY lucky to be privy to). Trading online is not very different to when people would get up the courage to lease a seat and trade on the floor, except that it's way easier and way more accessible now via online platforms. That also means...

Thank your for sharing your opinion.

Yes I tried but I prefer to be an active trader (which isn't a quality of course)
  • #56
  • Dec 28, 2014 7:12pm Dec 28, 2014 7:12pm
Quote
I have been learning how to trade the Fx Market for roughly six years, with training. I understand all the advanced patterns, Fibonacci's, Bat patterns, butter fly's, Gartleys, Head & shoulders, crowns, support and resistance, on and on ect. And I can analyst a currency pair from Monthly, Weekly, daily, 240, 60 in about five mins, the name of the game is emotions!! Also you can make 100s of pips a day by trading a simple 5 min chart using 3 T3 Tilsons with the DTR (daily trading range) and not one other indicator, not knowing any patterns...


1) These patterns are basically bullshit. What I want to know is if the price X.XX was bought or sold by market participtants when it was reached last time. There is no such information in Gartley or Fibonacci levels.

2)
  • #57
  • Dec 28, 2014 7:31pm Dec 28, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting santos23
Im sorry but this is one of the most ridiculous threads on FF, just because you cant make trading seem to work for you..it does not mean you generalise it completely as a failure and spread your low esteem to other people, in my opinion this shouldent even be up. If you fail and dont find the energy to keep trying then give up on trading, but dont come and cry on here. you have to find success on your own because nobody will feed it to you..

Why are you so upset? If you think you can make it then do it. I'm just saying that despite having an interesting scalping system it seems difficult to be a winner on the long-run.

Do you want to be only with dreamers who think making money with Bullish Bat an Fib levels is possible? Do what you want to do.
  • #58
  • Dec 28, 2014 7:50pm Dec 28, 2014 7:50pm
oops!... Scuffle.. again
BullShit BearShit
  • #59
  • Dec 28, 2014 7:54pm Dec 28, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting Unabletrader
{quote} 1) These patterns are basically bullshit. What I want to know is if the price X.XX was bought or sold by market participtants when it was reached last time. There is no such information in Gartley or Fibonacci levels. 2)
That is what I was trying to say, you can learn all those fancy patterns and try and use, all these indicators, that are just reading the candles, when all you have to do is look at a 5 Min chart with a couple T3 Tilsons and the daily trading range. And by the way the patterns and Fibonacci's are not BS on the higher time frames. How long have you been studying charts. As for swing trading on larger time frames, its real hard to lose money if you have a large enough acct where you couldn't work yourself out of a bad trade. I can see that FF is for real beginner traders.
  • #60
  • Dec 28, 2014 8:40pm Dec 28, 2014 8:40pm
Quote
As for swing trading on larger time frames, its real hard to lose money if you have a large enough acct where you couldn't work yourself out of a bad trade. I can see that FF is for real beginner traders.

It doesn't make any sens.

A trader may have the same risk with a large or small account. About the swing trading: Daytraders tend to lose more money because they are more likely to overtrade. In addition to that, their overtrading brings them to take position during specific market conditions.

There is no golden rule; you can make money by using bullshit bat or inside bar. Being a long-term trader or scalper. What does it matter is your trading statement at the end of the month/year.

But there is no problem. This is exactly what I'm looking for. I'd like to discuss about trading so guys keep doing posting. I'm just surprised to see everybody says the same thing about trend, swing and price action. Let's face it.
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