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  • #461
  • Dec 17, 2014 3:42pm Dec 17, 2014 3:42pm
Putin is giving his annual several hours long press conference on December 18 at 9:00 a.m. GMT (tonight at 1:00 a.m. PST/4:00 a.m. ET). The Kremlin says it expects much of the press conference to be devoted to the Russian economy. Short description.

  1. Live stream link will be on Sputnik: http://sputniknews.com (not sure if there will English translation)
  2. English transcript (usually 5+ hours delay): http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts
  3. Russian transcript (usually almost immediate): http://kremlin.ru/transcripts

Putin's statements may have significant effects on the Ruble. My opinion: Look for rhetoric regarding the conflict in East Ukraine and Russia's relationship with the west. If there is a hint of a conciliatory tone, that would be a good thing.

  • #462
  • Dec 17, 2014 9:21pm Dec 17, 2014 9:21pm
Hello RusCheese. You have a very very good trade now, it seems. FinFx has discontinued trading in the RUB. Will be watching and reading with interest. Their CEO is watching, too. I wonder what would make brokers decide to reverse their decisions. We shall see. May I ask, do you trade using a bank in some way or a US broker who is continuing to allow the RUB? Perhaps you explained and I didn't notice.
  • #463
  • Edited 3:07am Dec 18, 2014 2:54am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting Greenstar
Hello RusCheese. You have a very very good trade now, it seems. FinFx has discontinued trading in the RUB. Will be watching and reading with interest. Their CEO is watching, too. I wonder what would make brokers decide to reverse their decisions. We shall see. May I ask, do you trade using a bank in some way or a US broker who is continuing to allow the RUB? Perhaps you explained and I didn't notice.
CitiFX Premium through mt4. I have the advantage of not being restricted to just US platforms however.
  • #464
  • Dec 18, 2014 3:07am Dec 18, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Zollino
Therefore I may think anything above 100RUB per EURO is not acceptable for CBR. This led me to conclusion, RUB can stay on this value and possibly get to original 45-48RUB/EUR in 6-12months.
Hi, Zollino!

In my opinion as Russian, in 6-12 months in the best scenario we can see 52-57 Rub/Eur. 45-48 seems very optimistic to me.
But, I agree that Ruble is very undervalued now, although many here think differently. On the other hand, anything can happen with Russia and Ruble and today it depends on many factors - I will not be surprised if tomorrow Ruble will cost either 200 $/R or 25$/R. It's Russia, after all

Best regards,
Artem
Let's go with the flow
  • #465
  • Dec 18, 2014 3:13am Dec 18, 2014 3:13am
Live now with live English translation: http://rt.com/on-air/putin-annual-news-conference/
  • #466
  • Dec 18, 2014 4:05am Dec 18, 2014 4:05am
Thanks RusCheese, very interesting
  • #467
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:10am Dec 19, 2014 4:10am
Russian government today has decided to recapitalize major banks and to issue new bonds which will be targeted to support credit actions. Russian overnight rate still remains very hign, which means that there is a shortage of cooperation and trust among the banks
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  • #468
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:31am Dec 20, 2014 11:31am
http://kingworldnews.com/paul-craig-...ack-swan-west/
If this seems too intense moderators, it is being posted in a spirit of neutrality, for another perspective on issues surrounding this pair.
  • #469
  • Dec 20, 2014 11:56am Dec 20, 2014 11:56am
“It’s not payback for Crimea. It’s the cost of our natural desire to preserve Russia as a nation, a civilization and a state.” PUTIN

The US has targeted Russia with misinformation and propaganda for a long time predating the situation in the Ukraine.
  • #470
  • Edited 12:40am Dec 21, 2014 12:40am | Edited 12:40am
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/201...t-ploy-of.html
"In reality, at least 80% of the Russian population stands solidly behind Vladimir Putin. He has brought them universal education, health care and fixed infrastructure that was decaying after the fall of the Soviet Union. President Putin is literally revered as a hero by the vast majority of Russians – including the country’s oligarchy."

http://rt.com/news/216083-oil-us-morales-bolivia/
“[The US thinks] we are living 200, 300 or 500 years ago, instead of today. But all the past should remain in the past. The US should realize this,” he told RT’s Spanish channel.
America is acting like other large empires did for centuries as they “disseminated strife and hatred inside and outside, wishing to establish political control over other nations and to plunder them economically,” Morales said, in an apparent reference to the Spanish conquistadors’ invasions of Latin America.
  • #471
  • Dec 21, 2014 12:52pm Dec 21, 2014 12:52pm
I don't know if US is hatred inside and outside, but it is sure that majority of smaller countries which are neighboring Russia are afraid of they sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is the main problem for Russia now, they lost almost all his credibility and respect among other countries who were neutral or protagonists of Russia in the past.
  • #472
  • Dec 22, 2014 2:38am Dec 22, 2014 2:38am
Quoting tomas.v
I don't know if US is hatred inside and outside, but it is sure that majority of smaller countries which are neighboring Russia are afraid of they sovereignty and territorial integrity. .
You are right - they are afraid. But because of whom? Because of Russia? No. And if you agree with that, then I don't understand how your first sentence corresponds with the second:

Quoting tomas.v
This is the main problem for Russia now, they lost almost all his credibility and respect among other countries who were neutral or protagonists of Russia in the past.
Again, lost because of what?
It's really sadly to see how easy in our information age to manipulate the minds of millions (if not billions) people.

Best regards,
Artem
Let's go with the flow
  • #473
  • Edited 4:09am Dec 22, 2014 2:48am | Edited 4:09am
USD RUB pulling to 56 now. Sold 20% but keeping most of it in.

Following the Europeans', my impression is unless Kiev decides to commit "harakiri" and go on the offensive in East Ukraine, an increasingly unlikely scenario in my opinion, sanctions (except for those on Crimea) will start to go bye-bye come March.

No new sectoral sanctions are coming. Even Poland's own FM just came out opposing additional sections on Russia. That means chances of existing sanctions staying beyond July are pretty much at "zero" barring some craziness from Kiev (which is not completely impossible considering the desperation level Kiev is in at the moment and the lack of willingness of US and EU to help financially).
  • #474
  • Edited 12:13pm Dec 22, 2014 11:25am | Edited 12:13pm
Interesting article on the perception of the downward spiral we've seen in Russia this year by some of the emerging market funds:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dacf4...#axzz3McLfbcp4
Quote
“Russian energy companies trade at valuations south of five times earnings and pay dividends north of 5 per cent,” Arjun Divecha, head of GMO’s emerging markets equity team, wrote in a note to clients. “Given that our main case is that there will not be comprehensive capital controls that limit our ability to take money out of the country, we remain comfortable holding these very cheap assets (and perhaps adding to them if they decline further).”

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...e-rallies.html
Quote
The success of Russia’s support for the ruble depends on oil prices and the longevity of sanctions, according to Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow.
“At the current oil price of $60 a barrel,” if sanctions aren’t tightened, the ruble may average around 50 per dollar in the mid-term, Kouzmin said by e-mail. “If there is a massive run on the currency among the population,” the ruble might “move to levels that are difficult to quantify,” he said.

Kudrin [Russia's former Finance Minister]: Inflation will accelerate to 12 to 15 percent next year, Russians’ real incomes will fall and imports will decline about 40 percent, according to Kudrin, who said sanctions aren’t hurting the economy any less than plummeting oil prices.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...ia-credit.html
Quote
The peak of the currency crisis is behind us as authorities have taken decisive and appropriate actions,” Bernd Berg, a London-based emerging-market strategist at Societe Generale SA, said in e-mailed comments Dec. 19. “There is still work to be done and the ruble might remain very volatile in the short term. Over time, volatility will calm down and the ruble steadily appreciate assuming stabilizing oil prices.”
Also, China has gone full-on "Russophile" with their statements of late. They've lately said they'll support the RF's current economic situation:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...-currency-swap
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...2-7288afeb5fbf
Quote
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said for a Chinese newspaper on Monday that, "If the Russian side needs, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity."
(Just to be clear, I am not naive to think China is anything but being opportunistic, but their willingness to pursue a policy completely the opposite of the west toward Russia is interesting).

USD/RUB hit 54.12 earlier today.
  • #475
  • Edited 5:44pm Dec 22, 2014 5:22pm | Edited 5:44pm
Ukraine's president Poroshenko is set to hold another round of ceasefire talks with separatists this week. Meanwhile, Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko, and Putin just had a call and conclusions appear positive. More talks are scheduled for the 24th and 26th. http://president.gov.ua/en/news/31975.html

Folks have asked if they should realize their losses and exit their long positions on USDRUB. Personally, I don't think that would be wise yet. Remember that wild swings are rarely sustainable. The ruble has just swung from 54 to 78 to 55 in two weeks. Personally I think there is still a very strong chance the Ruble will swing the other way once again (though I think it would be to <65) in the near future, particularly as folks realize their gains from short positions bought near the height.
  • #476
  • Dec 22, 2014 6:58pm Dec 22, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting Greenstar
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/201...t-ploy-of.html "In reality, at least 80% of the Russian population stands solidly behind Vladimir Putin. He has brought them universal education, health care and fixed infrastructure that was decaying after the fall of the Soviet Union. President Putin is literally revered as a hero by the vast majority of Russians – including the country’s oligarchy." http://rt.com/news/216083-oil-us-morales-bolivia/ “[The US thinks] we are living 200, 300 or 500 years ago,...
If Putin really loved his country, he would establish democracy, period. Next you will be telling us that his popularity numbers are real!
Forever learning....
  • #477
  • Edited 7:38pm Dec 22, 2014 7:11pm | Edited 7:38pm
Quoting hosemaster
{quote} If Putin really loved his country, he would establish democracy, period. Next you will be telling us that his popularity numbers are real!
Actually, Greenstar is completely correct that support in Russia for Putin is extremely high. It's impossible to argue otherwise. See: http://www.gallup.com/poll/173597/ru...vel-years.aspx. Moreover, in my opinion, support for Putin from oligarchs is high as well (despite eroding economic conditions) as there is no viable alternative that wouldn't be completely catastrophic to oligarchs in Russia (see my previous post - the only other party that could win popular elections is the Communist Party or the ultra-nationalist LDPR party).

Whether or not support for Putin would be different if Russia had western style democracy, or whether such a political system is even viable in Russia is an entirely different discussion and one that would result in a useless political debate that is probably inappropriate for this thread. The only thing I'll say is it is naive to think there are no strong arguments against advocating for such a system in a country with systemic problems that have not been resolved since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Why this is important to understand in the context of Forex is because sanctions have no bearing on RF's foreign policy decisions (something which Obama's administration, let alone the Europeans, appears to understand quite clearly at this point). In essence, the more sanctions the west imposes on the RF, the more Putin's government blames Russia's economic problems on the west (even though many of Russia's economic problems are the fault of the government), which gives him support from the people in his foreign policy decisions. More sanctions = more political support. This is why Putin's support has increased even as the sanctions were introduced.
  • #478
  • Dec 22, 2014 8:05pm Dec 22, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting RusCheese
Ukraine's president Poroshenko is set to hold another round of ceasefire talks with separatists this week. Meanwhile, Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko, and Putin just had a call and conclusions appear positive. More talks are scheduled for the 24th and 26th. http://president.gov.ua/en/news/31975.html Folks have asked if they should realize their losses and exit their long positions on USDRUB. Personally, I don't think that would be wise yet. Remember that wild swings are rarely sustainable. The ruble has just swung from 54 to 78 to 55 in...
I agree, I do not think the wild swings are finished yet; although I have been completely out of this pair and expressed no more interest in trading it, I decided to start a small long position; only targeting 60. We're in that 53-55 range now, which a couple weeks ago they were stating that the Ruble should be trading in this band (before it blew up to 80); I don't see a lot of downside on USD/RUB here. A sustained break and hold under 50 seems unlikely in the near term; but with this pair, who knows.
  • #479
  • Dec 26, 2014 11:15pm Dec 26, 2014 11:15pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...-rubles-monday
  • #480
  • Dec 28, 2014 4:30am Dec 28, 2014 4:30am
Quoting RusCheese
{quote}Why this is important to understand in the context of Forex is because sanctions have no bearing on RF's foreign policy decisions (something which Obama's administration, let alone the Europeans, appears to understand quite clearly at this point). In essence, the more sanctions the west imposes on the RF, the more Putin's government blames Russia's economic problems on the west (even though many of Russia's economic problems are the fault of the government), which gives him support from the people in his foreign policy decisions. More...
I am new here but trading USDRUB and searching any news and opinion I can get for improving my strategy.

What I have learned :
Putin's government doesn't blame economic problems on the west. They rather try to pose that any economic
sactions can not hurt Russian economy. Russians are very proud on their nationality which is not bad but it isn't also good because it makes difficult to get an agreement in difficult times like this.

I am out of trade now with this pair but I am considering to put awaiting execution - sell stop on the price 60.
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