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ETMA_The Evolution

  • #821
  • Dec 6, 2014 3:31am Dec 6, 2014 3:31am
State of the trend, Indices and commodities plus the US Dollar.

The Indices are still rallying hard, CL trying to Recover from a long period of losses, Gold is on a whipsawing up - down trend but the Main trend is still down, the USD is on a non stoppable bull run .

Have a great weekend everybody.

Best,
B.R.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #822
  • Dec 6, 2014 3:37am Dec 6, 2014 3:37am
The EU and the Natural Gas are in Down Trend .
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  • #823
  • Dec 10, 2014 4:38am Dec 10, 2014 4:38am
State of the trend.

A roundup of the yen pairs how are showing some weakness lately, keep in mind that this is not a full blown reversal yet but the signs are there and it's our job to detect them ASAP.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #824
  • Edited 5:17am Dec 11, 2014 4:58am | Edited 5:17am
AU and AN Bear Trend still going strong, the USD reversed course yesterday and retesting, is this the UJ Reversal ?, crude light still heading south and tested the 60$ threshold.

These are the best of the trends today and probably this week.

Best,
B.R.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #825
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:51am Dec 11, 2014 5:51am
Quoting bassramy
AU and AN Bear Trend still going strong, the USD reversed course yesterday and retesting, is this the UJ Reversal ?, crude light still heading south and tested the 60$ threshold. These are the best of the trends today and probably this week. Best, B.R. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
  • #826
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:39am Dec 16, 2014 2:39am
The Indices are getting hammered along with the Dax and CL (Crude Light ), this is the state of the trend for today with a heavy calendar so be careful out there, specially scalpers and day trader because this going to be a wild ride before the end of the year and Christmas .
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #827
  • Dec 16, 2014 2:56am Dec 16, 2014 2:56am
Stunning charts B. Looks like we may be in for a great ride. It is going to be interesting to see if the announcements are going to get cut-through as it appears the markets are making their mind up themselves given the crude oil price. So many indices are heading south and momentum on most of the major forex pairs is picking up. An unusual event for the festive season:-)

C
  • #828
  • Edited 8:42am Dec 17, 2014 4:56am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Copernicus
Stunning charts B. Looks like we may be in for a great ride. It is going to be interesting to see if the announcements are going to get cut-through as it appears the markets are making their mind up themselves given the crude oil price. So many indices are heading south and momentum on most of the major forex pairs is picking up. An unusual event for the festive season:-) C
Its the deluge of risk events with heavy calendar yesterday, today and tomorrow.

A huge risk event today with the FOMC Meeting, my research shows that we may have a hawkish Fed hinting @ raising Interest rates as early as The summer of 2015 with ( considerable time ) out of the broadcasted Statement replaced with patience, which in turn benefits the USD and the Market as a whole and a whole bull USD Trend will start to emerge a new, which in turn blow all the current infant trends sky high and a shift in risk sentiment will turn the market upside down with a volatility that can kill even the seasoned trader, specially after the blood bath that we witnessed yesterday with the Ruble which forced the American banks to stop pricing the RUB Which in turn forced the brokers to stop offering prices for the USD/RUB.

One unlikely scenario is that the big boys knows already (Highly unlikely) the outcome of the FOMC decision meeting ( they are publishing the same as my analysis above or vice versa ) and they initiated already their trading operations which places us already in a risk-on sentiment mode.

Be very careful tonight, heads will be shopped.

Ruble Swings Too Much for Retail Brokers as They Suspend Trading
Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold
Russian rate hike fails to halt ruble's fall
Oil's Crashing And Russia's Imploding, So It's Time To Start Asking...

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #829
  • Dec 17, 2014 6:37am Dec 17, 2014 6:37am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} Its the deluge of risk events with heavy calendar yesterday, today and tomorrow.
Now you've made me nervous. I will buckle up and prepare for a possible onslaught at the screen. Thanks for the heads up B. :-)
  • #830
  • Dec 17, 2014 11:22am Dec 17, 2014 11:22am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Now you've made me nervous. I will buckle up and prepare for a possible onslaught at the screen. Thanks for the heads up B. :-)
Trust no one else but your analysis and your thoroughly backtested system, listen to no one, no tips, no hints, no bullshit analysis only your charts, guts and system, if you done that you shouldn't be nervous, take it easy, relax and let your hard earned work and experience do the worrying.

Although i'm already experiencing the negative results of this analysis i will sleep like a baby tonight because the calculated risk is already priced in as a cost of doing business.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #831
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:58pm Dec 17, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting bassramy
{quote} Trust no one else but your analysis and your thoroughly backtested system, listen to no one, no tips, no hints, no bullshit analysis only your charts, guts and system, if you done that you shouldn't be nervous, take it easy, relax and let your hard earned work and experience do the worrying. Although i'm already experiencing the negative results of this analysis i will sleep like a baby tonight because the calculated risk is already priced in as a cost of doing business. Best, B.R.
Once I commit to my analysis it is locked in like Fort Knox so the die is cast on my fate. My nerves fortunately take a seat behind my analysis. That way I can only blame my strategy if things go wrong and not my gut instinct which inevitably is wrong.

Once I let my nervous instinct take over my trading becomes suicidal but despite this safety net it certainly doesn't help me sleep. I told you I was a bad trader (well at least a reformed gambler who has learnt his lessons).

I really appreciate your guidance B. Your ideas and thoughts resonate with me and I really appreciate it.

....the FOMC outcome certainly sorted out the wheat from the chaff. Most of my trend trades have been knocked out but a few stalwarts remain standing such as the trusty AUD pairs. I am hoping that things settle down a bit from here as I am starting to need that Christmas vacation. This can be a tiring game especially following last weeks hell-ride for me. I am thinking a few books, good food and some time out with the family is looking very appealing.

Take care B :-)
  • #832
  • Dec 18, 2014 6:19am Dec 18, 2014 6:19am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Once I commit to my analysis it is locked in like Fort Knox so the die is cast on my fate. My nerves fortunately take a seat behind my analysis. That way I can only blame my strategy if things go wrong and not my gut instinct which inevitably is wrong. Once I let my nervous instinct take over my trading becomes suicidal but despite this safety net it certainly doesn't help me sleep. I told you I was a bad trader (well at least a reformed gambler who has learnt his lessons). I really appreciate your guidance B. Your ideas and thoughts resonate...
'Considerable Time' Is Gone, The Federal Reserve has dropped "considerable time" from its policy statement and said it will be " patient " in how long it waits to raise interest rates, that means 4 - 6 Months depending on the Data.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/feder...#ixzz3MFZTlLnK .

Exactly what i expected, the indices changed course and the USD Restarted a New bull run but still capped by his resistance, the EU plunged and so does risk on currencies and Financial assets, the yen is struggling to weakening due to the USD being on resistance, Swiss franc hits two-year low as SNB cuts rates to negative and the gold is treading water.
FOMC Meeting yesterday and the volatility that surged afterwards did opened some trading windows of opportunity in the crosses which i'm reluctant to take due to the end of the year.
The Pain was really Minimum due to the active Risk Management of the Opened Trades.

End of the year i guess, i'm suspending any more trading for the year and managing only the opened ones specially the AUD pairs, beginning my audit for the year 2014 to see what works and what's not, analysing my losses to see if the flaws comes from me, the strategy, the system or its just the markets and also my wins to duplicate in the coming year.

I know its early but Merry Christmas and Happy new Year.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #833
  • Dec 18, 2014 9:54am Dec 18, 2014 9:54am
http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/73...39b42b02a4.jpg

Merry Christmas everybody.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #834
  • Edited 5:52am Dec 19, 2014 5:34am | Edited 5:52am
State of the trend : Trend Following Wizards – Strong November, Strong 2014.

One of the best months of the year for our Trend Following Wizards. Not so surprisingly after the strong performance of the State of Trend Following Index (nearing +10% return for November).

The largest Hedge Fund is Winton capital 26.400 Billion which made 4.99 % this past Month that 1.31736 Billion, the YTD is 14% which translate to 3.696 Billion, imagine the Bonuses @ the end of the year.

The best performer to date is Mulvaney Capital with a 53.49% YTD, Eckhardt Trading, co creator of the Turtles experiment has averaged 14.69% YTD, his students Abraham Trading, Chesapeake Capital averaged 21.16% and 10.16% respectively.

Best,
B.R.
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  • #835
  • Dec 19, 2014 5:46am Dec 19, 2014 5:46am
Quoting bassramy
State of the trend : Trend Following Wizards – Strong November, Strong 2014. One of the best months of the year for our Trend Following Wizards. Not so surprisingly after the strong performance of the State of Trend Following Index (nearing +10% return for November). The largest Hedge Fund is Winton capital 26.400 Billion which made 4.99 % this past Month that 1.31736 Billion, the YTD is 14% which translate to 3.696 Billion, imagine the Bonuses @ the end of...
Pretty interesting.

Will look through them

Thanks for sharing

Happy festive season
Rooi
We miss 100% of the shots we don't take
  • #836
  • Dec 19, 2014 5:58am Dec 19, 2014 5:58am
What's used in the Hedge Fund industry and what's not, what works and what not, here is the list.

The State of TF index closed the month with a big spike up, courtesy of large crude oil/energy moves to the downside. Most of the systems in the index had been short for a few months and benefited from this large move in the direction of the main trend.
Unsurprisingly, the index registered a new high and now stands close to +50% for the year, narrowly missing a double-digit return in November.

System Rules and Parameters

All the systems were tested with the same simple position sizing rules of 1% per new trade. No other Money/Risk Management rules were used. No trade friction (slippage or commission) was applied. No return on margin is added to the system performance
The system rules are detailed on the Trading Blox online documentation.

The MA Crossover system was used with moving average pairs of 10-20, 20-50 and 50-200 days. The stops/position sizes are set at 2x, 3x and 5x ATR respectively.

The Bollinger Band system is the classic use of the Bollinger Bands with entries taking place at Breakouts. The parameters used were 20, 50 and 200 days with 2 standard deviations.

The Triple moving Average system was used with moving average triplets of 10-20-50, 20-50-200 and 50-200-800 days. The stops/position sizes are set at 2x, 3x and 5x ATR respectively.

The Donchian System is a simple version (with no Trade Direction filter) with channel lengths of 20, 50 and 200 days for entries (and 10, 25, 100 for exit). The stops/position sizes are set at 2x, 3x and 5x ATR respectively.

Portfolio Instruments

Covering over 50 instruments across Equities, Interest Rates, Currencies, Agriculturals, Metals and Energies, from around the world, the portfolio contains the following futures (CSI Symbols): AD, BP, C, CC, CD, CFC, CL2, CT, CU, EBL, EBM, EBS, ED, EOX, ESM, FC, FEI, FFI, GC, HG, ICL, IND, JK2, JP2, JP6, JR2, JRB, JTI, JY, KC, KPO, KTB, LC, LGO, LH, MFX, MP, NG2, RA, RS, S, SB, SF, SI, STW, SXE, TRY, US, W, YM, YTC .

Best performance this year was with the BB50 System.

Enjoy.

Best,
B.R.
Attached Image
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #837
  • Dec 23, 2014 5:24am Dec 23, 2014 5:24am
Finally and after 10 Days of consolidation Gold is crashing on stronger dollar and thin Liquidity.
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  • #838
  • Dec 24, 2014 4:33am Dec 24, 2014 4:33am
Merry Christmas To everyone of my followers and Visitors.
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  • #839
  • Dec 24, 2014 5:42pm Dec 24, 2014 5:42pm
Merry Christmas to you and your family B :-)
  • #840
  • Dec 25, 2014 7:06am Dec 25, 2014 7:06am
Quoting Copernicus
Merry Christmas to you and your family B :-)
Thank you C. To you and your family too.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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