Central Banks & Big Players | Page 685 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How do you know all the positions held by big players? 25 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Central Banks and Big Players: Slight change in code reqd 7 replies

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players! 25 replies

Big players and Forex 4 replies

Attachments: Central Banks & Big Players
Exit Attachments

Central Banks & Big Players

  • #13,681
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:15pm Dec 13, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting Tony112
Oanda keeps spread on GBP/USD around 11 pips, we are 5 - 15 minutes after GBP Manufacturing Production m/m !!!!!!!!!!! These things make me wanna vomit Edit: 7th minutes after news: spread 11 !!!!! Edit: 12 minutes after news.... SPREAD IS stuck 15 pips for the 15 minutes following the news. I have captured the chat conversation and with all my respect, I'm keeping it for me for now. I'm waiting for an explanation from them now or I will post this chat conversation. {image}

Resolved and explained:

''Thank you for contacting OANDA.

With regards to the reported issue on GBP/USD spread widening between 11:30 to 11:45 (GMT+2), 9 December 2014, we were facing a technical issue after the GBP news release of Manufacturing Production Index for the British economy. Hence the spread only narrowed down after approximately 15mins.
Please be assured that this issue is being addressed as a high priority right now to minimize the re-occurrence of similar issues.
We apologize for any inconvenience caused due to this event.
With regards to the reported issue on GBP/USD spread widening between 11:30 to 11:45 (GMT+2), 9 December 2014, we were facing a technical issue after the GBP news release of Manufacturing Production Index for the British economy. Hence the spread only narrowed down after approximately 15mins.
Please be assured that this issue is being addressed as a high priority right now to minimize the re-occurrence of similar issues.
We apologize for any inconvenience caused due to this event.''


--------

You are excused Oanda because I am very loyal to you. At least you clarified. Everyone screw up once in a while and I'm the best person for that statement.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,682
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:14am Dec 15, 2014 9:14am
I'm trading this tonight:

German Flash Manufacturing PMI


SL/12 TP 40, CURRENCY: EUR/USD, DIRECTION: COIN TOSS
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,683
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:38am Dec 16, 2014 6:38am
Quoting Tony112
I'm trading this tonight: German Flash Manufacturing PMI SL/12 TP 40, CURRENCY: EUR/USD, DIRECTION: COIN TOSS
Pffffffff, Tony......both news (France/Germany) a fart.....
  • #13,684
  • Dec 17, 2014 8:25am Dec 17, 2014 8:25am
Quoting bernbeach
{quote} Pffffffff, Tony......both news (France/Germany) a fart.....
Back in the days, things weren't like that... ever changing market conditions.

Not to long ago, these news were announced by Thompson Reuters and since they abandoned them, they have been some useless peanuts.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,685
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:06pm Dec 17, 2014 2:06pm
On the US press conference:


hahah lol this homie got slammed with the word ''couple'' dictionary definition by Yellen HAHAHA I'm on the ground now
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,686
  • Dec 17, 2014 2:20pm Dec 17, 2014 2:20pm
why hasn't tony put FOMC in the official news yet? whipsaws, devastating whipsaws
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,687
  • Dec 18, 2014 3:55am Dec 18, 2014 3:55am
Look at that crap GBP retail bargaining whipsaw thing
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,688
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:17am Dec 18, 2014 8:17am
I will be posting an IMPORTANT update on recent developments in the currency markets and its news effects this afternoon.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,689
  • Dec 18, 2014 8:35am Dec 18, 2014 8:35am
i was long in eurchf and got a big surprice today lol. The news Swiss Libor Rate was printed as low impact haha. So dont trust the callender!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 189 ech.jpg Size: 95 KB
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #13,690
  • Dec 18, 2014 9:19am Dec 18, 2014 9:19am
Quoting Bernhard
i was long in eurchf and got a big surprice today lol. The news Swiss Libor Rate was printed as low impact haha. So dont trust the callender! {image}
Bernard, congrat.... I hope you made on this one $100-$1K/pip . Your Xmas is made here... Well, eh, for me it would been made. I missed the news. Computer kaput & under overhaul
  • #13,691
  • Dec 18, 2014 11:30pm Dec 18, 2014 11:30pm
Recent changing market conditions need to be addressed.

Ever changing market conditions. From the GBP claimant count change, to the AUD employment, German Flash, IFO, FOMC, BOJ press conference, GBP retail sales, CPI, WHATEVER! ... and EVERYTHING in between seems to be a drop of tear in the ocean... no effect, just whipsaws. In contrast, it's a big tear on our bank accounts!

The world is listening to other things, USA strength and continuously dropping oil prices. Larger and more important news are leading the crowd! There used to be a time where French flash manufacturing use to make 50 pip moves. Nowadays, it whipsaws around itself at 5 +/- pips and flat-lines dead... Thomson Reuters don't even bother announcing these 2 minutes in advance to subscribers. Per these changing market conditions, we change too. We adapt and we will be stronger than ever. We must hold on tight to your dreams and seek for what is solid to hold on in this deep ocean in which we are floating. I will advise you to trade only USD NFP + CAD CPI for now as we look to target what is most efficient.

Hold on tight and don't let go, it's worth it.
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,692
  • Edited 5:37am Dec 19, 2014 5:15am | Edited 5:37am
Quoting Tony112
Recent changing market conditions need to be addressed. Ever changing market conditions. From the GBP claimant count change, to the AUD employment, German Flash, IFO, FOMC, BOJ press conference, GBP retail sales, CPI, WHATEVER! ... and EVERYTHING in between seems to be a drop of tear in the ocean... no effect, just whipsaws. In contrast, it's a big tear on our bank accounts! The world is listening to other things, USA strength and continuously dropping oil prices. Larger and more important news are leading the crowd! There used to be a time where...
Thanks Tony for keeping us informed, for sparing us the pain of making false trades in the market
  • #13,693
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:52pm Dec 19, 2014 3:52pm
Thanks for replies.

Quoting Tony112
Recent changing market conditions need to be addressed. Ever changing market conditions. From the GBP claimant count change, to the AUD employment, German Flash, IFO, FOMC, BOJ press conference, GBP retail sales, CPI, WHATEVER! ... and EVERYTHING in between seems to be a drop of tear in the ocean... no effect, just whipsaws. In contrast, it's a big tear on our bank accounts! The world is listening to other things, USA strength and continuously dropping oil prices. Larger and more important news are leading the crowd! There used to be a time where...
It really seems that NFP is the most if not only profitable news these days. CAD unemployment is not that bad, but unfortunately it coincides in most cases with NFP, and due to 50:1 leverage limit it is more profitable to trade only NFP. AUD unemployment was not good in 2014, perhaps it could be better with xau/aud, but this pair has small leverage (20:1).

For NFP we need a pair that hit 100 pips TP most often and has normal leverage too. I think such pairs are gold and silver. Spread is 1.5-2 times higher than on majors but it can be worth it. Gold/silver hit 100 TP 8/12 this year, eur/usd only 3/12. Usd/jpy is not bad - 6/12, but on that pair as well as on other majors TP 100 is usually hit in several hours after news release (sometimes even next day and with dangerous retraces) whereas on gold/silver TP is usually hit on initial spike (in first 1-5 min after news release).

It also can be safer to place one pending buy order instead of buying before the news, to avoid losses when price goes in the opposite direction to our stake. Whipsaws on NFP are rare, if TP is not hit in first 5-15 min after news release then move SL to breakeven.
What do you think?
  • #13,694
  • Dec 19, 2014 6:37pm Dec 19, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting Talvinen
Thanks for replies. {quote} It really seems that NFP is the most if not only profitable news these days. CAD unemployment is not that bad, but unfortunately it coincides in most cases with NFP, and due to 50:1 leverage limit it is more profitable to trade only NFP. AUD unemployment was not good in 2014, perhaps it could be better with xau/aud, but this pair has small leverage (20:1). For NFP we need a pair that hit 100 pips TP most often and has normal leverage too. I think such pairs are gold and silver. Spread is 1.5-2 times higher than on majors...
I like your thinking agree with your post. NFP the most violent news out there and we can exploit it. As for trading GOLD and SILVER, it's a good idea. I understand your point that these 2 reach 100 more often but keep in mind that the spread is also wider, everything has to be calculated in proportion.

For your second part on placing pending orders: I must disagree on that practice because you will be paying the FULL SPREAD instead of HALF of the spread. e.g.: buy usd/cad before news -> spread widens to 20 pips , you pay only 10 pips since you entered before. As for TP, I suggest you move it to BE in the first 15 seconds after news.

Don't forget to use a broker that doesn't ''slip'' past your SL... I've had brokers like that before. Very frustrating.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,695
  • Dec 20, 2014 8:07am Dec 20, 2014 8:07am
yes tony absolutly. the biggest slipage I ever had was +50 pips
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #13,696
  • Dec 20, 2014 9:41am Dec 20, 2014 9:41am
Quoting Bernhard
yes tony absolutly. the biggest slipage I ever had was +50 pips

This is an ultimate sign to quit the broker. It's unacceptable and you will never make money like that, unless you have a plan to not trade the news...
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,697
  • Dec 20, 2014 9:44am Dec 20, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I like your thinking agree with your post. NFP the most violent news out there and we can exploit it. As for trading GOLD and SILVER, it's a good idea. I understand your point that these 2 reach 100 more often but keep in mind that the spread is also wider, everything has to be calculated in proportion. For your second part on placing pending orders: I must disagree on that practice because you will be paying the FULL SPREAD instead of HALF of the spread. e.g.: buy usd/cad before news -> spread widens to 20 pips , you pay only 10 pips since...
Yes, there are some spread costs but if we always buy before news in approximately 50% of cases we will be wrong and get losses that can be avoided if we place pending order. When pending order is fulfilled price most likely will continue moving in our direction, whipsaws happen, but they are rare. And the key question is this: are spread costs with pending orders higher or lower than losses with market orders that we will get when price moves in wrong direction? I made some backtesting and it seems that these spread costs are actually lower i.e. pending orders must cut losses to a greater extent than profits.
  • #13,698
  • Dec 20, 2014 12:08pm Dec 20, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting Talvinen
{quote} Yes, there are some spread costs but if we always buy before news in approximately 50% of cases we will be wrong and get losses that can be avoided if we place pending order. When pending order is fulfilled price most likely will continue moving in our direction, whipsaws happen, but they are rare. And the key question is this: are spread costs with pending orders higher or lower than losses with market orders that we will get when price moves in wrong direction? I made some backtesting and it seems that these spread costs are actually lower...

I originally started trading the news with pending orders... this was many many years ago. The problems with the pending orders are:

-paying full spread
-order triggering by high spread in the wrong direction
-slippage

E.g. On NFP, I would pay a 20 pip spread, the pending order would have to be at least 20 pips above current price before news. This is to avoid false direction triggering by high spread. Result: Entry will be made 40 pips past initial price before news. I didn't work out for me a long time ago.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,699
  • Dec 21, 2014 3:31am Dec 21, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I originally started trading the news with pending orders... this was many many years ago. The problems with the pending orders are: -paying full spread -order triggering by high spread in the wrong direction -slippage E.g. On NFP, I would pay a 20 pip spread, the pending order would have to be at least 20 pips above current price before news. This is to avoid false direction triggering by high spread. Result: Entry will be made 40 pips past initial price before news. I didn't work out for me a long time ago.
I am aware of all the problems with pending orders (btw if there is no slippage on SLs there must be no slippage on pending orders too), but market orders also have problems: the biggest problem is that about half of all trades are losses. It works fine with 4-5 or more news per month, but with only 1 or 2 news per month it is not so profitable. As you said, recent changing market conditions need to be addressed, and in these changing conditions pending orders even with all its disadvantages can be substantially more profitable than market orders. I suggest to find a way to increase profitability in conditions where only 1-2 tradeable news per month are present. Pending orders just seem the easiest and effective way to increase profitability. (There are perhaps some other ways: e.g. we can trade more news with smaller profit targets.)
  • #13,700
  • Dec 21, 2014 3:55am Dec 21, 2014 3:55am
Quoting Talvinen
{quote} I am aware of all the problems with pending orders (btw if there is no slippage on SLs there must be no slippage on pending orders too), but market orders also have problems: the biggest problem is that about half of all trades are losses. It works fine with 4-5 or more news per month, but with only 1 or 2 news per month it is not so profitable. As you said, recent changing market conditions need to be addressed, and in these changing conditions pending orders even with all its disadvantages can be substantially more profitable than market...
Talvinen, your ideas are great and logical but the best way to prove their efficiency is to try them in real life trading. NFP is my most awaited news. To put it in a simple way, with a pending order, *the best* possible entry I would be able to make is at least 40 pips past the price (price before news). That is 20 pips spread + 20 pips entry above original price to avoid false direction triggering. 40 pips is too much + there's no way to put your SL at 16, you must put it at at least 20+pips because of the high spread... so your SL would have to be something like 30 pips.

I understand that buying before news will lead into 50% instant loss but look at it this way. You pay about 10 pips of spread + about 8 pips for the spike going in the wrong direction. My SL on NFP is about 16-19 pips for a reward of 40+ pips... I'm telling you, experience it with pending orders and give me news.
Invest in alarm clocks
16 traders viewing now