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AUD/USD

  • #88,201
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:05pm Dec 15, 2014 9:05pm
Quoting banana
{quote} Now we just need an entry point to a short, I think a break out may be close because it's been hovering in the 82.10 area for some time now and 82.60 area was rejected last night. Looks like we are headed down but how much volume could there possibly be so close to Christmas holidays?
banana, look for this week's FOMC statement in less than 48 hours. If Fed solid on normalizing its policy in Q1 2015, there will be a leg down in AU. if "considerable time" is still needed, chance is there would be a rebound in AU.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #88,202
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:36pm Dec 15, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} hey no sweat. That's what they said EURUSD would be at 1.200 when it was at 1.3300 less than 3 months ago.
>> Agree.
Good Finance Good Life for Good People
  • #88,203
  • Dec 16, 2014 12:02am Dec 16, 2014 12:02am
Quoting FXSayWhat
Today's AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Highlight: {quote} AUD rate is believed still higher above its fundamental value... while couple days ago Stevens said AUDUSD is better at 0.7500 than 0.8200 which is consistent with today's statement.
No brainer trade, Stevens has already given the tp level at 0.75. However, lets not be greedy, we are fine to tp at 0.76.
Technically and fundamentally, this pair looks bearish.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #88,204
  • Dec 16, 2014 12:06am Dec 16, 2014 12:06am
Dude this remind me what he suggested in late-2013 for the "fair value" of AUD is 0.85. Indeed the AUD never fell to this level as bottomed in Feb for 0.865. The story is well known to all of you as AUD/USD rose as high as 0.94-ish.

It's quite difficult for AUD to reach that level if RBA doesn't provide any real threat (like intervention or rate-cut).
  • #88,205
  • Dec 16, 2014 12:40am Dec 16, 2014 12:40am
Technically it's at support. If this breaks, .80 is on the cards. .75 is a fair way off.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #88,206
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:09am Dec 16, 2014 6:09am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} No brainer trade, Stevens has already given the tp level at 0.75. However, lets not be greedy, we are fine to tp at 0.76. Technically and fundamentally, this pair looks bearish.
EURUSD and GBPUSD now rallying more than 100 pips! But AUDUSD is still lagging behind, just show how weak this pair is.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #88,207
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:18am Dec 16, 2014 6:18am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} EURUSD and GBPUSD now rallying more than 100 pips! But AUDUSD is still lagging behind, just show how weak this pair is.
yes, its a bit weird..
NU is doing much better.. up 1%
  • #88,208
  • Dec 16, 2014 8:28am Dec 16, 2014 8:28am
just my own opinion, that majority of the trader is now in a long side of this pair and what they are waiting are the reversal of the belief of the big players.... just my observation..../
  • #88,209
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:45am Dec 16, 2014 11:45am
Quoting diegosilva
Dude this remind me what he suggested in late-2013 for the "fair value" of AUD is 0.85. Indeed the AUD never fell to this level as bottomed in Feb for 0.865. The story is well known to all of you as AUD/USD rose as high as 0.94-ish. It's quite difficult for AUD to reach that level if RBA doesn't provide any real threat (like intervention or rate-cut).
that's the thing, lip service alone won't get us there
  • #88,210
  • Dec 16, 2014 4:17pm Dec 16, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting dugie
just my own opinion, that majority of the trader is now in a long side of this pair and what they are waiting are the reversal of the belief of the big players.... just my observation..../
That observation tells you where price will go - Spike down to collect the stops of those that are long. The stops of the long traders are in a pretty obvious place, just below the last bottoms, so big players will push price down to trigger those stops, and then use that liquidity to place their large Buy orders.
Holy Grail part 1. - Cut loses short.
  • #88,211
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:28pm Dec 16, 2014 7:28pm
I read it in one of the local newspapers here that with Australia's terms of trade bound to fall further, and the US monetary tightening cycle expected to take hold next year, one of the local banks sees the Aussie at US88¢ at the end of this year, moving gradually down to US82¢ by the end of next year and then US80¢ by March 2016.
  • #88,212
  • Dec 16, 2014 8:57pm Dec 16, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting mystic
{quote} That observation tells you where price will go - Spike down to collect the stops of those that are long. The stops of the long traders are in a pretty obvious place, just below the last bottoms, so big players will push price down to trigger those stops, and then use that liquidity to place their large Buy orders.
Part 1 of your prediction has come true - congrats! Interested to see if second part comes through. I can't help thinking that expectations have pushed USD up so much that there will be a let down - possibly from tomorrow's FOMC meeting.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #88,213
  • Dec 16, 2014 9:25pm Dec 16, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting FoxofForex
I read it in one of the local newspapers here that with Australia's terms of trade bound to fall further, and the US monetary tightening cycle expected to take hold next year, one of the local banks sees the Aussie at US88¢ at the end of this year, moving gradually down to US82¢ by the end of next year and then US80¢ by March 2016.
There is no real reason for the AUD to fall as much as it has been other than those gangsters elect talking the economy down. The economy is not down, not down by as much as they would have you think. What are they planning, God only knows. We even had a Muslim terror incident here the other day, a first. I wonder if it's all related?
  • #88,214
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:04pm Dec 16, 2014 10:04pm
Empty space below

Attached Image
  • #88,215
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:20pm Dec 16, 2014 10:20pm
Yesterday's bounce at .82 really threw me off, I was expecting what happened now to happen then
  • #88,216
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:50pm Dec 16, 2014 10:50pm
Quoting Ken A
Empty space below {image}
Timmbbeeerrrr!
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #88,217
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:00pm Dec 16, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting Ken A
Empty space below {image}
Looking to short once bounced finished (if there is ever a bounce...)
TP: 0.8100
  • #88,218
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:50pm Dec 16, 2014 11:50pm
Gidday Traders

Jumping Jack

Well looking like they mean it

you would have to think 0.80

Still we bounce must be getting close

even to add to a short etc
  • #88,219
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:56pm Dec 16, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting Macdon
{quote} There is no real reason for the AUD to fall as much as it has been other than those gangsters elect talking the economy down. The economy is not down, not down by as much as they would have you think. What are they planning, God only knows. We even had a Muslim terror incident here the other day, a first. I wonder if it's all related?
Simple, because Stevens wants it at 0.75. You can't blame them, they are just following instructions.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #88,220
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:58pm Dec 16, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting Ken A
Empty space below {image}
Seems that next stop at 0.80, then onwards to 0.75.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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