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USD/RUB

  • #401
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:48am Dec 16, 2014 6:48am
I'm in. No hindsight. Play it as a grid with a stop above 100.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/Ybi6p7Aq/
Predatory by Nature
  • #402
  • Dec 16, 2014 6:50am Dec 16, 2014 6:50am
Quoting Dafonz
*Grab the popcorn! http://joyreactor.cc/kurs ahahaha {image}
Confused? Are these targets for Ruble? 95.49 then back to 59?
Predatory by Nature
  • #403
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:09am Dec 16, 2014 7:09am
Hardly a surprise or news but Russia's leadership is set to meet in a few hours to discuss financial situation. I think draconian controls are just around the corner.
  • #404
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:22am Dec 16, 2014 7:22am
Quoting jcannchica
{quote} where are you looking at? Thanks
Justa candle chart. The interventions are frankly obvious as soon as they start. Not difficult to make decent coin riding these if you're disciplined (although I'm short now and stayed out of this one).

Anybody want to make bets on how much money CBR blew today already? My guess is $5 billion+. Will be interesting to see official numbers.
  • #405
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:23am Dec 16, 2014 7:23am
Quoting RusCheese
{quote} Capital controls (restrictions on currency exchange). Put it this way: the CBR just showed it has absolutely no ability to influence the ruble through interest rates, which is what it told the market it would do after it announced the free float. Since it can't manage the currency with interest rates, and due to continued risk/excuse of oil prices going down more, and because the CBR doesn't have unlimited foreign currency reserves, it has to do something different. Simply put, the CBR can't play this same game. It needs to change the rules....
Thank you sir.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #406
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:28am Dec 16, 2014 7:28am
Quoting RusCheese
{quote} Justa candle chart. The interventions are frankly obvious as soon as they start. Not difficult to make decent coin riding these if you're disciplined (although I'm short now and stayed out of this one). Anybody want to make bets on how much money CBR blew today already? My guess is $5 billion+. Will be interesting to see official numbers.
I'll guess $7.2 billion
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #407
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:33am Dec 16, 2014 7:33am
Quoting grin
At this point they are rather avoid drastic measures and adjust to it. RUB will settle somewhere. One of the reasons they let ruble float because they were realizing what might be coming (not to this extent though) and did not want to spend money defending it. Capital controls unlikely to help now, they are going to be step back, and create pre-condition for replay of something to the same extent at some time down the road.
The problem is the market isn't following any type of "logic" or correlation at this point and it seems like the players were well prepared to absorb massive shocks and continue business as usual. That's bad news for Rodina. What's next? Probably downward pressure on oil prices and possibly a "statement" from one of the credit agencies, both excuses to keep sticking it to the ruble. It seems CBR is woefully incompetent, or simply outclassed to play this game.
  • #408
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:34am Dec 16, 2014 7:34am
Hi,

I was asking 2 questions couple of pages ago (post no 376).

Can you advise me please where and in what form (CFDs?) can I trade EUR/RUB, USD/RUB in long term (weeks, months) and where I can trade short term(intraday, days)? From the links you provid I can read further about the margins, etc.

Thank you.
  • #409
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:34am Dec 16, 2014 7:34am
Damn, my broker is changing leverage on USD/RUB from 100:1 to 25:1
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #410
  • Dec 16, 2014 7:43am Dec 16, 2014 7:43am
I just tried to sell RUB ----and my CFD platform messaged ' ''closed for trading- reduction in existing trades only''
any one know anything? the platform message service center wont answer
  • #411
  • Dec 16, 2014 8:18am Dec 16, 2014 8:18am
Dear Clients!
Due to absent liquidity trading on USDRUB and EURRUB is temporarily closed.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
Should you have any questions, contact our Customer Service team by phone +7 (495) 710-76-76 from 8:00 EET to 21:00 EET, Monday – Friday.
Best Regards,
Alpari
  • #412
  • Dec 16, 2014 9:10am Dec 16, 2014 9:10am
Quoting grin
Head of the CBR said in an interview that they are not planning administrative measures. She talked about adaptation to the new floating rate regime. She believes the current exchange rate is not fundamentally justified, but it will take time for the market to find equilibrium.
Damage control
  • #413
  • Dec 16, 2014 9:51am Dec 16, 2014 9:51am
Quoting trader700
Dear Clients! Due to absent liquidity trading on USDRUB and EURRUB is temporarily closed. We apologize for the inconvenience. Should you have any questions, contact our Customer Service team by phone +7 (495) 710-76-76 from 8:00 EET to 21:00 EET, Monday – Friday. Best Regards, Alpari
Are they liquidating positions like FXCM?
  • #414
  • Dec 16, 2014 9:55am Dec 16, 2014 9:55am
Reason for this huge fall is obviously the OPEC statement on Sunday where they said they don't think about limiting oil supply even if it falls to 40USD per barrel. In conjuction with EU/USA sanctions imposed to RF in summer, RF is export oriented economics. Unfortunately they massively export Gas and Oil. Given the price of oil, it will sunk their 2015 national budget. Currently their budget is calculated for 2015 with approx. 48RUB/USD which is too optimistic and therefore their will lack money on everything.

I believe there is no short-term solution for this until the oil prices will go back again, or the sanctions are cancelled. Oil forecast is set to around 60-80 USD/barrel for next two quarters. Sanctions are politics. So if they won't use this bad situation as opportunity to increase domestic production (due to cheaper costs) or/and increase export of domestic production (to perhaps far east, latin america, etc.). They are literally in hands of OPEC for now, directly dependant on oil prices. This is how I see it in long term.
  • #415
  • Edited 10:04am Dec 16, 2014 10:04am | Edited 10:04am
Wow, and I thought yesterday's daily candle was insane; today's dwarfs that!

From the low of 58 to the high of 80, we've moved 35% in a day, absolute insanity.

I've been having some trouble with opening/closing positions on Forex.com (something like "pair not dealable") will occasionally crop up until the cross stabilizes; then I can trade in and out.

I'm curious to see what else the Russian central bank has up it's sleeve today or this week.

Also, keep in mind that it's Not in the West's best interest to have a rogue nuclear state in a desperate economic crisis. In fact, here on some comments from John Kerry.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...ns-a-lifeline/
  • #416
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:21am Dec 16, 2014 10:21am
Quoting Zollino
Reason for this huge fall is obviously the OPEC statement on Sunday where they said they don't think about limiting oil supply even if it falls to 40USD per barrel. In conjuction with EU/USA sanctions imposed to RF in summer, RF is export oriented economics. Unfortunately they massively export Gas and Oil. Given the price of oil, it will sunk their 2015 national budget. Currently their budget is calculated for 2015 with approx. 48RUB/USD which is too optimistic and therefore their will lack money on everything. I believe there is no short-term solution...
Here's an article from 2012 analyzing how oil prices historically correlate with the ruble's value. The takeaway is - not as much as you think: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...-price-of-oil/

As pointed out by many analysts, the ruble devaluation this year can't be explained by any one thing. Other oil-revenue dependent countries have experienced nowhere near the currency devaluation. The decline in the ruble prices help the RF balance its ruble dominated budget, for example. Those who have been in the market long enough know the market isn't always "logical." Russia is in the news in the moment and the rubles perceived value has been closely tied to the price of oil (whether the perceived extent of such relationship is historically/fundamentally warranted). When price of oil declines, the market shorts the hell out of the ruble, a problem compounded with the bandwagon effect. Sir Putin wanted the world's attention. He got the market's attention.

Frankly I believe most miscalculate the situation in Ukraine and the likelihood of the sanctions being lifted.
  • #417
  • Edited 12:19pm Dec 16, 2014 10:26am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting thadakman
Wow, and I thought yesterday's daily candle was insane; today's dwarfs that! From the low of 58 to the high of 80, we've moved 35% in a day, absolute insanity. I've been having some trouble with opening/closing positions on Forex.com (something like "pair not dealable") will occasionally crop up until the cross stabilizes; then I can trade in and out. I'm curious to see what else the Russian central bank has up it's sleeve today or this week. Also, keep in mind that it's Not in the West's best interest to have a rogue nuclear state in a desperate...
Thank you for posting the link. So much for predictions that sanctions will remain indefinitely.

As mentioned, the removal of sanctions being tied to East Ukraine has been hinted on by the US and EU before, but this is the clearest statement to date. Keep in mind the situation in East Ukraine has stabilized dramatically in the last week. Poroshenko just gave another statement that no shots were heard in East Ukraine last night. That's a huge deal: http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/12/16/7052182/. Even the war party of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk, just said that Ukraine does not advocate for more sanctions on Russia.

If Putin is smart he will let the US/EU take some credit for "helping reverse the situation in East Ukraine" after scheduling some type of hyped up meeting between Kerry/Lavrov, for example. I think the RF is pretty good at this type of thing when it comes to foreign policy. Hopefully they don't let their egos get in the way and jump on this.
  • #418
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:33am Dec 16, 2014 10:33am
Holy hell. Another massive CBR intervention. 71.70 to 66.80. I think they'll push to <65
  • #419
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:35am Dec 16, 2014 10:35am
That might be our long term top.
  • #420
  • Dec 16, 2014 10:50am Dec 16, 2014 10:50am
Quoting RusCheese
{quote} Are they liquidating positions like FXCM?
No open positions in close only mode but margin 1:10
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