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  • #341
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:16pm Dec 15, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting thadakman
Today's move is absolutely extraordinary. A potential blow-off top? There are supposed to be some talks about sanctions later on Tuesday that may provide some relief. Russia also need to consider raising rates like Turkey did earlier this year in an emergency meeting that helped stabilize the Lira.


Russia raises key rate to 17%, effective Tuesday!!!
  • #342
  • Edited 4:35pm Dec 15, 2014 4:23pm | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting RusCheese
As I've said before however, don't trade this pair unless you have the $$ to avoid getting liquidated due to massive market movements that don't necessarily reflect any fundamental reasons, particularly if you're shorting USD/RUB. In my personal opinion, if you're going long, you're just gambling (nothing wrong with that, so long as you understand that once the trend reverses, you will probably be irreversibly wiped out).
Hope nobody here got wiped out. Don't mean to quote myself but HOLY S.... Just dropped over 30000 pips in seconds. I took last short at 65.4500. Cost basis is ~61.20 (we're almost there! hehe). Still planning I'll be holding through Spring.
  • #343
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:23pm Dec 15, 2014 4:23pm
It will be an interesting Tuesday for rubble...fun to watch
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #344
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:23pm Dec 15, 2014 4:23pm
Price reading 62.30 right now... can easily get back under 60 from this news.

Later in the week, if the FOMC doesn't changes it's wording hinting about earlier interest rate hikes than expected, if oil rebounds, and if any positive developments from sanctions arise, it'll be the perfect cocktail to get her back in the low 50's.

As it stands, for those who are short and have weathered this storm, great relief is now in sight and as a bonus, we'll be collecting even more yield everyday.
  • #345
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:28pm Dec 15, 2014 4:28pm
60.53 now, whee!!!
  • #346
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:29pm Dec 15, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting thadakman
Price reading 62.30 right now... can easily get back under 60 from this news. Later in the week, if the FOMC doesn't changes it's wording hinting about earlier interest rate hikes than expected, if oil rebounds, and if any positive developments from sanctions arise, it'll be the perfect cocktail to get her back in the low 50's. As it stands, for those who are short and have weathered this storm, great relief is now in sight and as a bonus, we'll be collecting even more yield everyday.

It can keep going up...

Bank of Russia already rised interesent rate some time ago it did not stop the fall.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #347
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:31pm Dec 15, 2014 4:31pm
Does anybody else think this was premature by the CBR? God I hope they actually have a plan and know something we don't. This could be a serious PITA for the motherland if they acted too early. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
  • #348
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:32pm Dec 15, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} It can keep going up... Bank of Russia already rised interesent rate some time ago it did not stop the fall.

It can certainly go back up, but this hike was absolutely huge! A similar thing earlier this year absolutely killed Turkish Lira shorts for months... the USD/TRY has since gone up to all new records today in fact, but that interest rate hike certainly calmed the market for a while and slammed any one who was long USD/TRY.
  • #349
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:35pm Dec 15, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting RusCheese
Does anybody else think this was premature by the CBR? God I hope they actually have a plan and know something we don't. This could be a serious PITA if they acted too early. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
A 12.6% plunge in a single day must've caused panic and they had to let the market know they can Bite hard when backed against the wall. The market thought they were all bite and no bark.

I think this buys them time until the price of oil rises and sanctions ease. They needed to do something drastic; the economic growth is already shot as is now and they probably figure they best just give a good incentive for the ordinary Russian folk to park their money in the Ruble.
  • #350
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:43pm Dec 15, 2014 4:43pm
Talk about volatility; jumped under 60, spiked over 61 and now under 60... the question is, do we get a red candle by the end of the week with the most insanely high upper wick we'll probably see?

58 is going to be very telling.
  • #351
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:49pm Dec 15, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting thadakman
{quote} A 12.6% plunge in a single day must've caused panic and they had to let the market know they can Bite hard when backed against the wall. The market thought they were all bite and no bark. I think this buys them time until the price of oil rises and sanctions ease. They needed to do something drastic; the economic growth is already shot as is now and they probably figure they best just give a good incentive for the ordinary Russian folk to park their money in the Ruble.
My biggest concern is they just used up a significant tool. I hope they combine it with politics and an announcement of high likelihood of more intervention to maximize the effect.
  • #352
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:50pm Dec 15, 2014 4:50pm
why does anyone trade this with a 5000 pt spread>?
  • #353
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:52pm Dec 15, 2014 4:52pm
FXCM just did an urgent message stated will not be available for customers anymore due to instability.
  • #354
  • Edited 5:06pm Dec 15, 2014 4:52pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting Liam0530
why does anyone trade this with a 5000 pt spread>?
Because the ridiculous volatility makes the spread irrelevant for non intraday traders?

Quoting Rizmeister
FXCM just did an urgent message stated will not be available for customers anymore due to instability.
What are the ramifications for active orders and open positions? I'm not with FXCM but would like to know.

EDIT: Apparently the positions will be liquidated on December 17th. Just found out. Damn. Sorry for those affected.
  • #355
  • Dec 15, 2014 5:13pm Dec 15, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting RusCheese
{quote} Because the ridiculous volatility makes the spread irrelevant for non intraday traders? {quote} What are the ramifications for active orders and open positions? I'm not with FXCM but would like to know. EDIT: Apparently the positions will be liquidated on December 17th. Just found out. Damn. Sorry for those affected.
Sucks for anyone who got caught long trying to "chase"; but also for some early shorts... at least they'll be able to discount most of today's losses.

That is the scary thing about Exotic pairs; the volatility can be scary enough; but you never know when something like this happens.
  • #356
  • Dec 15, 2014 5:49pm Dec 15, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting thadakman
{quote} Sucks for anyone who got caught long trying to "chase"; but also for some early shorts... at least they'll be able to discount most of today's losses. That is the scary thing about Exotic pairs; the volatility can be scary enough; but you never know when something like this happens.
Is it common for market makers to pull stuff like this? Seems absolutely nuts to use them if they can pull the carpet from under you at any moment like that.
  • #357
  • Dec 15, 2014 7:53pm Dec 15, 2014 7:53pm
Seems like their financial system is on life support.
  • #358
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:10pm Dec 15, 2014 9:10pm
Research Russia crisis 1998- they tried the exact same thing....to no avail.
  • #359
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:13pm Dec 15, 2014 9:13pm
Can anybody recommend descent broker(available for US residents), to trade USD/RUB pair?

Thank you
  • #360
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:16pm Dec 15, 2014 9:16pm
As well as EUR/RUB or any/RUB*??
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