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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,821
  • Edited Dec 12, 2014 3:15am Dec 11, 2014 6:46pm | Edited Dec 12, 2014 3:15am
Quoting Mpt
The reason for my comment about 185 is that it could POSSIBLY be a bottom. Fade under 185 and it continues south. Any rapid move now up over 186.5 to 187 means it was playing a game and it's getting ready to launch higher already.
Now to see it trade under 187.7, then after a bounce from the bottom the down trend can continue.

Break over 188.2 destroys that argument.

sorry meant to write 185.7. Once posted something with a 16x by mistake.
  • #16,822
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:09am Dec 12, 2014 6:09am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey 4xNG! Nice to see you here. Honestly, I can't tell if that's a buy or sell on your chart. I was biased to the long side early this week, but my longs got stopped out and I took a big hit to my account I'm trying to start from scratch (just $200). Now my bias has switched to playing the short side. I think we're still in an overall uptrend, but it seems like maybe a deeper correction is due. I could see us dropping to the low 184s/high-mid 183s but I'd have to see a break of the 200ema on the 4-hour to be convinced we go further down...
Yikes, how'd I miss that reply?

It was a long that I hit BE on. I was hoping it would remain in the channel it was in since the tail end of the BoJ news release, but it finally broke free of that.

These movements though, pure craziness. I've had some good luck with the E/U these past couple of days. It's not behaving as wildly as the G/J, so I've been able to snag a few trades and recoup some of my losses. After this next one closes, I'm done for the month (at least with the G/J). When January hits, we should see a bit more normalcy in the markets.
  • #16,823
  • Dec 12, 2014 10:38am Dec 12, 2014 10:38am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Yikes, how'd I miss that reply? It was a long that I hit BE on. I was hoping it would remain in the channel it was in since the tail end of the BoJ news release, but it finally broke free of that. These movements though, pure craziness. I've had some good luck with the E/U these past couple of days. It's not behaving as wildly as the G/J, so I've been able to snag a few trades and recoup some of my losses. After this next one closes, I'm done for the month (at least with the G/J). When January hits, we should see a bit more normalcy in the...
No worries, 4XNG.

Things are crazy right now and the whipsaws in GBP/JPY are largely due to the increased volatility in the stock market.

I said I was done for the week the other day, but I started playing the range last night and have done alright doing so. Still have a huge blow to the account from the week and I'm going to be doing a post-mortem on that this weekend.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,824
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:48pm Dec 12, 2014 12:48pm
Hey all, we're clearly in consolidation mode after the most recent correction off the highs. I'll do a more detailed post this weekend for my "the week ahead" posts on my blog but this is what I'm seeing right now:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2014-12-12 10.46.56.png Size: 196 KB
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  • #16,825
  • Dec 12, 2014 12:52pm Dec 12, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, we're clearly in consolidation mode after the most recent correction off the highs. I'll do a more detailed post this weekend for my "the week ahead" posts on my blog but this is what I'm seeing right now: {image}
I should have mentioned this, but this is the range I've been playing since last night... both ways for about 50-60 pips at a pop. It's worked nicely but I'm hoping we break out next week one way or the other.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,826
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:00pm Dec 12, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I should have mentioned this, but this is the range I've been playing since last night... both ways for about 50-60 pips at a pop. It's worked nicely but I'm hoping we break out next week one way or the other.

Good idea. And yea... got a bit of pips on shorts earlier. Am thinking a possible play is price going to the 184 - 184.6 range before heading up. Of course I would prefer if they just rose lol have more longs than shorts
  • #16,827
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:08pm Dec 12, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Good idea. And yea... got a bit of pips on shorts earlier. Am thinking a possible play is price going to the 184 - 184.6 range before heading up. Of course I would prefer if they just rose lol have more longs than shorts
I'm staying focused on the consolidation triangle we're in, MaryAnne. Rather than forming a bias (long or short) at this point, I'm content playing the range and waiting until we see a break and then entering on the retest. It will happen, just need to stay patient, which is often the hardest part.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,828
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm staying focused on the consolidation triangle we're in, MaryAnne. Rather than forming a bias (long or short) at this point, I'm content playing the range and waiting until we see a break and then entering on the retest. It will happen, just need to stay patient, which is often the hardest part.
G'day,

I expected that bounce / sell-off to occur today. But, I also expected continuation down past today's low. I agree, this market is still in consolidation mode, and ultimately directionless in the short term. PLaying the range is critical IMO
  • #16,829
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm Dec 12, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'm staying focused on the consolidation triangle we're in, MaryAnne. Rather than forming a bias (long or short) at this point, I'm content playing the range and waiting until we see a break and then entering on the retest. It will happen, just need to stay patient, which is often the hardest part.

Agree with you. Wish I had been more patient... last time I touched geppy was like 4 months ago I forgot how volatile this pair could be... playing bounces/ranges sounds right and safest course. Geppy
  • #16,830
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:21pm Dec 12, 2014 1:21pm
I notice a triangle is forming... we are in the consolidation as mentioned. But whats interesting is price appears to have found a "support" around 186 which is 2 fibo + EMA 100 for me. This coincides with 118 on USDJPY... therefore most likely an "up" will come. This is based on H4 TF though, and formation looks very similar to USDJPY currently. Let's see how this goes
  • #16,831
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:23pm Dec 12, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting MaryAnne
I notice a triangle is forming... we are in the consolidation as mentioned. But whats interesting is price appears to have found a "support" around 186 which is 2 fibo + EMA 100 for me. This coincides with 118 on USDJPY... therefore most likely an "up" will come. This is based on H4 TF though, and formation looks very similar to USDJPY currently. Let's see how this goes
I 100% agree with you, based on current technicals. But, don't know how FOMC / Japan elections will impact (although Japanese elections will probably support the pair higher). But, FOMC is a ? for me.
  • #16,832
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:30pm Dec 12, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting MaryAnne
I notice a triangle is forming... we are in the consolidation as mentioned. But whats interesting is price appears to have found a "support" around 186 which is 2 fibo + EMA 100 for me. This coincides with 118 on USDJPY... therefore most likely an "up" will come. This is based on H4 TF though, and formation looks very similar to USDJPY currently. Let's see how this goes
At this point, if you put a gun to my head and I had to pick... I'd say the next break-out will be to the upside. But I've gotten it wrong so many times this week that I'm staying away from forming biases before price action tells me to do so.

I am currently holding longs, but I put them on at 186.05 and 186.15 -- I won't hesitate to pull them off in this consolidation zone if we get to the upper boundary, or at least put a tighter stop loss on them.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,833
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:32pm Dec 12, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} I 100% agree with you, based on current technicals. But, don't know how FOMC / Japan elections will impact (although Japanese elections will probably support the pair higher). But, FOMC is a ? for me.
That's the dilemma we all face... I think there's where risk management comes in handy... Technically speaking, albchb (did i spell his name right lol) s target of 177/178 is where a strong support lies current based on my chart but I am hoping we don't need to revisit that so soon, and that this current once around 184/185 holds until the next correction.
  • #16,834
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:33pm Dec 12, 2014 1:33pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} At this point, if you put a gun to my head and I had to pick... I'd say the next break-out will be to the upside. But I've gotten it wrong so many times this week that I'm staying away from forming biases before price action tells me to do so. I am currently holding longs, but I put them on at 186.05 and 186.15 -- I won't hesitate to pull them off in this consolidation zone if we get to the upper boundary, or at least put a tighter stop loss on them.

Sounds like a good plan. What I would do is set a TSL (I regret not setting it on my earlier longs). And then when it breaksout, you can have the best of both worlds and no worries even if it plunges

Ps: forgot to mention on ctrader u can set it to BE after x pips, and TSL to commence after x more pips. really cool!
  • #16,835
  • Edited 11:53pm Dec 12, 2014 11:35pm | Edited 11:53pm
What is it with this line?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 47 KB
  • #16,836
  • Dec 13, 2014 11:14am Dec 13, 2014 11:14am
Quoting Mpt
What is it with this line? {image}

Gratz my friend, seems it loves your line
  • #16,837
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:07am Dec 14, 2014 1:07am
Quoting Mpt
What is it with this line? {image}
Interesting that it seems to be a resistance.

EDIT: It also has a support level, which it dramatically bounced off recently. ie it's an upward channel IMO. Which suggests that it should LOWER from this 186 level - which is totally against what I expected. Best to shelve my expectations and watch PA.
  • #16,838
  • Dec 14, 2014 2:17am Dec 14, 2014 2:17am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Interesting that it seems to be a resistance. EDIT: It also has a support level, which it dramatically bounced off recently. ie it's an upward channel IMO. Which suggests that it should LOWER from this 186 level - which is totally against what I expected. Best to shelve my expectations and watch PA.
Resistance, apart from being futile, is eventually to be broken.

Now, this thing could go down a fair amount, but just looking at the mess it's creating suggests (to me) that it's in a shallow correction that may take the form of a semi rounded bottom - something vaguely like this on a 4hr chart ............

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 39 KB
  • #16,839
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:22pm Dec 14, 2014 1:22pm
Hey all. I hope everyone had a great weekend. I definitely did, but ready for the markets to reopen again!

I kept some longs on from Friday and am favoring a potential break higher, but definitely considering it could do exactly the opposite. More here if you're interested in a more detailed explanation:

http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...jpy-this-week/
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,840
  • Dec 14, 2014 5:38pm Dec 14, 2014 5:38pm
Looks like we dropped through support of the consolidation range. I'm not shorting unless I see a break of the lows put in on the 10th.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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