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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,621
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:01pm Dec 11, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting nic73
Hi, help me with post 28610 please. Thank you.
Hi Nic - sorry buddy. H & Shoulders is Yvon's speciality so will wait for his opinion. From the little that I have had to do with them, it is not technically what we look for.
Generally speaking the head should be visually higher than the left shoulder and the right shoulder should be visually lower than the head.
I also think that Yvon uses the Macd to confirm his patterns but will wait & see his explanation. ( far better than mine I think )
Happy pipping mate.
  • #28,622
  • Edited 11:21pm Dec 11, 2014 9:57pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting nic73
AUDUSD Please give me your insight on this. Appreciate. {image}
hi Nic,

few candles are making a HS figure, or the 3 sisters. I like it when it looks more in good wealth so to say. sure the price when down later, but my hesitation for taking that trade would have stopped me for opening a trade there, the macd level is very low there( from -4.3 to 4.8 on my chart-). The examples I put there that can be seen on pages earlier are good example on what I consider more attractive to me.-

One more thing: HS is 3 RT and should follow the rules about them. And I agree with Binnie that the right shoulder should have a lower strength than the head, because HS represent a possibility of a trend change. but they are RT. On page six of the pdf ( located on page 1 of this tread) take a look at the figures there. we can see HS and the signal is on the right shoulder, but look at the level of the macd there: quite high, it is certainly not ripples.
Yvon
  • #28,623
  • Edited 8:19am Dec 14, 2014 4:44am | Edited 8:19am
Hi,

Hope everyone is having a good weekend.

Have a post her on EURUSD - counter trend. Please leave your comment.

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  • #28,624
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:35am Dec 14, 2014 8:35am
Quoting nic73
Hi, Hope everyone is having a good weekend. Have a post her on EURUSD - counter trend. Please leave your comment. {image}
Hi Nic. It's not divergence. Price needs to make HH.
  • #28,625
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:44pm Dec 14, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting nic73
Hi, Hope everyone is having a good weekend. Have a post her on EURUSD - counter trend. Please leave your comment. {image}
Hi, my two pence worth after going through this thread Phils PDF recently. I think I'm finally seeing how the moving averages and MACD interact.

Its not quite yet a HL.

At the moment it looks like a bounce off the 89. So will make its way back towards the 21 (at least) but when will be triggered by further rounding or downward trend of the current MACD semi arch.

A sell is attractive owing to the 200 resistance but there is not a lot of gain as the 21 is creeping up. The RR awarded by the 200 makes this low risk I guess but await the MACD for the trigger point.

Please let me know if what you think of my assessment.
  • #28,626
  • Dec 14, 2014 1:01pm Dec 14, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting nic73
Hi, Hope everyone is having a good weekend. Have a post her on EURUSD - counter trend. Please leave your comment. {image}
Howdy Nic,
Weekend was great - Birthday / wine/Jim Beam/wee cigar/awesome company. Apart from the rain, you couldn't ask for more.

I have to agree with Lifer on your chart. I guess you are deeming price as double tops but technically it is a Lower High so Divergence does not exist there. My add to this would be a watch for a H & S reversal. The 62 Fib has repelled attempts to head North and all those long wicks tell me that Sellers are ( have been ) in control. BUT - this is a new week so watching the open in 3 hours - that might tell us a story. If price gaps UPWARD, that would then create a HH and so your Divergence then comes into play. So many choices eh ?

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PS# Hi Lifer. How you gettin on mate?
  • #28,627
  • Dec 14, 2014 6:19pm Dec 14, 2014 6:19pm
Thanks for your replies on my post. I still get confused where one draws the line for divergence.

Binnie, if the right shoulder forms and without the divergence would you still take the trade? Right now, price has pulled back to the TL and looks moving away. So wait for the current candle to close and is the closes lower and right shoulder is formed, take the trade. Is that what you will do? Thanks

Nicholas
  • #28,628
  • Dec 15, 2014 2:16am Dec 15, 2014 2:16am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Howdy Nic, Weekend was great - Birthday / wine/Jim Beam/wee cigar/awesome company. Apart from the rain, you couldn't ask for more. I have to agree with Lifer on your chart. I guess you are deeming price as double tops but technically it is a Lower High so Divergence does not exist there. My add to this would be a watch for a H & S reversal. The 62 Fib has repelled attempts to head North and all those long wicks tell me that Sellers are ( have been ) in control. BUT - this is a new week so watching the open in 3 hours - that might...
Hey Binnie. I'm doing fine. Trying to build my own shorter TF strategy for entries but still using the Market Rhythm for the bigger picture. Will share when I start making money.

Nic if I may. The trade is not really CT. Price is bouncing between the 89 and 200. If you take the trade you should go to BE or TP at 61.8 to be on the safe side. Price is ignoring the 89 so it might go through.
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  • #28,629
  • Dec 15, 2014 2:43am Dec 15, 2014 2:43am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Howdy Nic, Weekend was great - Birthday / wine/Jim Beam/wee cigar/awesome company. Apart from the rain, you couldn't ask for more. I have to agree with Lifer on your chart. I guess you are deeming price as double tops but technically it is a Lower High so Divergence does not exist there. My add to this would be a watch for a H & S reversal. The 62 Fib has repelled attempts to head North and all those long wicks tell me that Sellers are ( have been ) in control. BUT - this is a new week so watching the open in 3 hours - that might...
I've also been doing some research on our local Stock Exchange here in South Africa. What's your opinion on Oil? Now is probably a good time to buy. It has to go up sometime. But where?? I'm thinking 78.6
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  • #28,630
  • Dec 15, 2014 5:52am Dec 15, 2014 5:52am
AUDUSD

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  • #28,631
  • Dec 15, 2014 6:00am Dec 15, 2014 6:00am
EURUSD (Post 28626)

Binnie did you trade this pair?

I managed to capture 6pips (took half profit after market touched 8ema) and another half of 30pips (at 21ema). Total of 21 pips gained.

LAB noted your posts. Every trader sees the charts in different ways. One like for post 28628.
  • #28,632
  • Edited Dec 21, 2014 10:35am Dec 20, 2014 5:14pm | Edited Dec 21, 2014 10:35am
Just to let you know:
For those curious about the picture beside my name
The picture you see is an old (already!) radar station on which I have been working as technician…What a lovely place!

…
It is so easy to see when every move on the chart is done, so easy! I could have just sold it right at the RT and keep all open positions until Friday, the bottom of the chart! Just going by the rules!

I guess I like it when I can make it complicated! But for those who would like to see the detailed trades… there they are:


EURUSD:
There is a lot of stuff on this chart because I was quite busy figuring out the big picture…

There are many trades involved (intentionally) in it last week. Almost a continuous firing!
I saw RT-3 first, and I was confused about it, I didn’t see (!) the divergence produced on the Macd, there was no HS. So I did 2 trades touching “top of consolidation” there for a zero gain! So I preferred to wait for the break down of “trend line 1” and “trend line 3” and I was expecting a “strong candle 1” from the break of fanion (trend line 1 and 2)

Sure on the break out of fanion there was an expecting “strong candle 1” to be drawn, followed by a “pull back 1” from where I started taking short positions. I was reassured by the moving averages positions that where just above that “pull back 1”: I mean the 200, the 89, the 21 and the 8 ema there.
A pull back to that bunch of moving averages was like a lightening to me! …And maybe I surely was not the only one being stroked by that!

At the same time, I remember, the break down of the “bottom consolidation” was coming: so I have loaded that candle with short positions with assurance there.
Next was the expectation of a “pull back 2” to the consolidation (in blue), from where I loaded again short positions for a continuous move down. Again I was expecting a strong candle since it is another break down.
Again, later, I added some short positions: because usually range tends to duplicate, making a fresh TC on the macd (range from the blue consolidation). There was some 50 pips gain down there.

Easy to see my weakness: Stop Loss too closes to action, being hit often.But in total I did fine

The low of the week is lower than the last low (yellow circle), so maybe a continuation down as anticipation for next week, but will see…
I like to use configuration effect while using the 4hrs Mac Strategy…I have been served abundantly on those positions.
Comments are welcome,
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Yvon
  • #28,633
  • Dec 21, 2014 12:27am Dec 21, 2014 12:27am
NZDUSD could be interesting to short...
On the weekly chart: (not showed)
An uptrend channel, since april 2010, has been broken down the 200sma, which is quite something! Three tops are done and, yes, the price felt after the third RT!

Indeed, the pair broke the 21 ema, pulled back to it and moved down…BELOW the channel!
Still on the weekly, after breaking below, there was a pull back to it and started a move away down.

What is interesting for me is what is below the channel, on the daily:
The third RT is starting his shape kind of flat, below the zero line on the macd. Will it keep going down?
the 4hrs chart could give some hints:
Now the 4hrs chart:
The last figure is a RT. Sure! after 3 pull back to the 200 sma, now price is below the 200, 89,21 and 8ema…what a nice place to short that thing!
The first targets could be the pink circles , but that is my view, but will see…
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Yvon
  • #28,634
  • Dec 21, 2014 2:11am Dec 21, 2014 2:11am
Hi Yvon,
Almost time to shut things down for a Xmas Break. Thanks for the charts & your views.
My son & I have been talking about shorting Kiwi for a Long term position. Means a pretty large stop but I feel confident enough . You have really just given us that last little confirmation - I guess I can add you to my INDICATOR list LOL.

I will email you in next couple of days to catch up on any news . I took 2 trades during the week - 1 bad ( cannot see now why I actually entered to be honest ) but the other was a good winner. I will post both for anyone to have a look if they are interested.

My sons & partners have started arriving home for 2 weeks break so it is pretty busy here. Has a 30+ temperature here today and that hurt a bit. Not used to it but was lovely. Having a cold ale on the deck while they play darts etc. Great to have the young ones around.
I will post tomorrow. Meantime - watching your comments as always.
Take care.

B.
  • #28,635
  • Dec 21, 2014 8:34am Dec 21, 2014 8:34am
Quoting binnie
Hi Yvon, Almost time to shut things down for a Xmas Break. Thanks for the charts & your views. My son & I have been talking about shorting Kiwi for a Long term position. Means a pretty large stop but I feel confident enough . You have really just given us that last little confirmation - I guess I can add you to my INDICATOR list LOL. I will email you in next couple of days to catch up on any news . I took 2 trades during the week - 1 bad ( cannot see now why I actually entered to be honest ) but the other was a good winner. I will post both...
Thanks for your comments Binnie! Including the 30 degrees! It gets the area here in Gatineau a bit warmer even if it is -10 degree Celcius this morning...even if it hurts a bit! and yes almost time to shut things down for the coming break.
NZD: Yes, maybe a larger SL could be needed, but if the price breaks the second target (second pink circle) or if you prefer: the larger neckline, then the ride down could be fantastic! Will see…
Enjoy the good time with your family, the R/R for family time is great this time of the year!
Yvon
  • #28,636
  • Dec 21, 2014 11:08pm Dec 21, 2014 11:08pm
Finally, Yvon and Binnie are back on this thread after a week long. I thought you guys have gone off of the holidays and back only next year.

I took some trades on GBPUSD and NZDUSD and made some good pips. In fact, I am still holding GBPUSD.

Hey, any thoughts on AUDUSD? It looks to be still on the downtrend but not much speed though. Went down a little than retrace and went down a little again. This trend is repeating. Is this still go down further?

Nicholas
  • #28,637
  • Dec 22, 2014 12:04am Dec 22, 2014 12:04am
Quoting nic73
Finally, Yvon and Binnie are back on this thread after a week long. I thought you guys have gone off of the holidays and back only next year. I took some trades on GBPUSD and NZDUSD and made some good pips. In fact, I am still holding GBPUSD. Hey, any thoughts on AUDUSD? It looks to be still on the downtrend but not much speed though. Went down a little than retrace and went down a little again. This trend is repeating. Is this still go down further? Nicholas

Hi Nic,
I am glad that you made some pips. I wasn't gone, but I will soon!
This time of the year, it is not quite as usual, so, maybe some hesitation this Sunday night.
But tomorrow, red news about US from 8:30 to 10:00hrs could make the market more active. But will see…

People are taking the week off, (maybe 2 weeks!) just as you mentioned, so the market doesn't respond normally.
So, in this case, I will take off too! - Not to forget to whish you the best to you for the coming year, as well as your family.
Before I go, I wish good time too to those, like us, are trading: best wishes and many pips in 2015 to all!
Yvon
  • #28,638
  • Dec 22, 2014 12:41am Dec 22, 2014 12:41am
Quoting nic73
Finally, Yvon and Binnie are back on this thread after a week long. I thought you guys have gone off of the holidays and back only next year. I took some trades on GBPUSD and NZDUSD and made some good pips. In fact, I am still holding GBPUSD. Hey, any thoughts on AUDUSD? It looks to be still on the downtrend but not much speed though. Went down a little than retrace and went down a little again. This trend is repeating. Is this still go down further? Nicholas
Hey hey hey you,

Well done for the positive trades, what are you holding for the GBP? I would only trade the support to resistance lines on the daily as it's going no where but sideways..

I have been quiet on the forum but still trading a little bit, i have started an evening class and this is taking up alot of my spare time, but, there is always a but...It has made me see a difference in my trading.

I only look at the Euro and GBP.....only looking at these 2 helps me to get the feel of them and lets my brain remember what i thought the price movement would be.

Plus, now i just trade the basic system of going with the daily trend, so waiting for retracements for those TC's so much easier for.

So i am quiet but checking in to read but not so much time for posting

So once again break even to lost a little over the year....... not bad not bad.....

Am looking towards the new year to make pips with my new style....

Enjoy the holiday and Happy Christmas and Good New Year to you all from me and a weird warm day in England 13 degrees this morning... usually between 1 - 8....

Good Luck all x
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  • #28,639
  • Dec 22, 2014 1:13am Dec 22, 2014 1:13am
I am taking 2 weeks, might just make today the last day I am looking at any charts, since I still have GBPUSD (minimal lot only and sold the rest).

Merry Christmas to all and Happy 2015. See you guys next year.
  • #28,640
  • Dec 22, 2014 1:18am Dec 22, 2014 1:18am
Quoting nic73
Finally, Yvon and Binnie are back on this thread after a week long. I thought you guys have gone off of the holidays and back only next year. I took some trades on GBPUSD and NZDUSD and made some good pips. In fact, I am still holding GBPUSD. Hey, any thoughts on AUDUSD? It looks to be still on the downtrend but not much speed though. Went down a little than retrace and went down a little again. This trend is repeating. Is this still go down further? Nicholas
Congrats Nic - No we haven't gone away buddy. Just that things are quietening down getting ready for the big holidays. As Yvon has reminded us - Red News is coming too so the question for me is : Are traders going to take profits on their long term shorts and let price drift back upwards OR will the big boys try one last time to clean out all remaining Stops before they go on holiday? I am happy to sit & watch from now on until 2nd week January.
My take on the Aussie is that there is only one direction to look for - DOWN. At least to the lower Trendline support level & possibly a last gasp charge to the 0.8100.

What are your numbers on the Pound - entry / stops etc and Targets. My take is attached.

Well done buddy - you have made huge progress. Remember to have a good break from the screen and spend all your spare time with your family & mates.
Safe xmas & exciting New Year to you and everyone else on our thread.

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