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USD/RUB

  • #281
  • Dec 3, 2014 11:10pm Dec 3, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting NWCurrency
Hi All, I'm a long time reader and haven't posted here yet. I rarely post in forex forums because of what I perceive as a kind of mass delusion among 99.9% of forex traders. (I actually find it depressing and perplexing.) The delusion is the belief that you need to get in and out, in and out, in and out. May I gently ask: Who here can read a daily chart? A weekly chart? If so, why are you pleased that you got in at 38.400 and got out at 38.600? In at 41 and out at 42.230? Who here bought the usd/rub pair back in September and held their position...
I will start by saying that I am currently short USD/RUB. About the daily and weekly charts, I will even go to the monthly chart, you need to have the character to hold onto a trade for weeks if not months. Not everyone can do it. Leave the books and statistics, you have the character for it while some traders don't. You cannot change one character unfortunately as most of us are old boys (I mean not kids that character can still be modified). Does it make such traders less better? Absolutely not. Different style, same results. While you wait for +700 pips by the end of the month an intraday trader that places 40 trades, 25 pips take profit can reach 960 pips. Another disadvantage is when you get stopped out it is not a small stop and may take months to recover, Intraday trader can recoup his losses in a two to three weeks, let's say a month for arguments' sake.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #282
  • Dec 3, 2014 11:13pm Dec 3, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} My thoughts exactly as well. The thing is, it is hard to determine where the high will be ... . Danske Bank has said 51 for 2015. And, although this is -- at the moment -- kind of joke, given the move up from 39 to 50+ makes 63 seem shockingly possible. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...sian-joke.html But, like I said at the beginning of October (when it was 39-ish), this could be a fantastic short play with patient entries and a strong stomach to carry it through the gyrations....
CBR due to meet on 11 December. They have intervened yesterday and 3 days ago. I honestly there will be moderate gains in USDRUB, remember that capital control measures are still on the table.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #283
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:01am Dec 4, 2014 12:01am
Quoting Panco
{quote} I will start by saying that I am currently short USD/RUB. About the daily and weekly charts, I will even go to the monthly chart, you need to have the character to hold onto a trade for weeks if not months. Not everyone can do it. Leave the books and statistics, you have the character for it while some traders don't. You cannot change one character unfortunately as most of us are old boys (I mean not kids that character can still be modified). Does it make such traders less better? Absolutely not. Different style, same results. While you...
The comparison I like to draw with this particular currency is with the Lira. I watched EUR/TRY for a substantial period of time as a possible carry trade, but considered it virtually untradeable from a carry trade standpoint since it was on a substantial upward trajectory with no end in sight. At some point, however, the pair settled into a range post-currency intervention and other government measures that provided some predictability in terms of entry and exit. As with the Ruble, the Lira was not for the faint of heart, with frequent daily movement in excess of 100 pips and a huge range (about 750-1000 pips from top to bottom) that required patience for the entry and patience for the exit if you were going to take maximum advantage of the range. You could easily wait 4-6 weeks for the pair to complete the desired movement, which is fine, since you were in the trade for the additional bonus of favorable swap, which you aren't going to get if you don't stay in the trade.

In the Ruble's case, I am waiting for a similar thing to occur (I personally thought it had at 39.00 when the trading bands were still in play; now, however, those are gone). Despite the interest rate hike and the piecemeal interventions, the currency refuses to make a sensible retreat or, at least, fall into some kind of usable range. I know that the RCB still has capital restrictions as a possible weapon, but it is unclear as to the degree to which this will assist in stabilizing the currency. All I can see is an incredible bull run from 33.5 at the beginning of July to 48.75 around the beginning of November, a brief retracement to 44.5, and then a resumption of the bull run from there to the present day just short of the high of 55.00.

So, I don't necessarily think the pair is ripe for me -- yet. So, I continue to wait to enter short in an environment where the pair won't rip the skin off my face, which is cool; I waited a long time for the Lira to come around. I may not catch the pair at its peak, but who the hell knows where that peak is at this point.

But when I feel comfortable doing that, it is likely that I will treat it as I've treated other carry trades -- as a long-term investment proposition where you actually, in a sense, want to wait as long as possible to take profit in order to get the positive swap. It's odd when you say with your carry trades, "Oh, crap, it just hit my target price. I was hoping to stay in it a bit longer ... ."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #284
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:13am Dec 4, 2014 12:13am
Quoting NWCurrency
Hi All, I'm a long time reader and haven't posted here yet. I rarely post in forex forums because of what I perceive as a kind of mass delusion among 99.9% of forex traders. (I actually find it depressing and perplexing.) The delusion is the belief that you need to get in and out, in and out, in and out. May I gently ask: Who here can read a daily chart? A weekly chart? If so, why are you pleased that you got in at 38.400 and got out at 38.600? In at 41 and out at 42.230? Who here bought the usd/rub pair back in September and held their position...
Well, this is just one of those trades where I want a short set-up for the carry. I have plenty of other currency pairs where there is a trend and (unlike this one), a lack of onerous swap on the long side. This is why I did not go long this pair and hold the long; you have to be in and out fairly quickly in order to avoid the huge negative swap, which is the last thing I want driving my decision to dump/hold a position.

That being said, it is apparent in 20-20 hindsight that it is possible that the movement from 36 to here would have far outstripped any negative swap in profit ... . Oh, well ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #285
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:14am Dec 4, 2014 12:14am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Well, this is just one of those trades where I want a short set-up for the carry. I have plenty of other currency pairs where there is a trend and (unlike this one), a lack of onerous swap on the long side. This is why I did not go long this pair and hold the long; you have to be in and out fairly quickly in order to avoid the huge negative swap, which is the last thing I want driving my decision to dump/hold a position. That being said, it is apparent in 20-20 hindsight that it is possible that the movement from 36 to here would have far...
Additionally, my Russian wife will not permit me to short the Ruble ... . I would be sent to the gulag.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #286
  • Dec 4, 2014 7:52am Dec 4, 2014 7:52am
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/?Prtid=cal_mp

Press release time given.
  • #287
  • Dec 4, 2014 10:38am Dec 4, 2014 10:38am
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...se/512570.html


I don't know about you guys, but I'm waiting for a quick drop under 50. We almost got there from 53.90 on Monday with the Russian central bank only spending 700 million to intervene; imagine if they just blast it with billions in a single day, that'll scare some speculators for sure.

Continuing to trade in and out; closed some positions earlier at 52.20 and started reloading again at 53.76 and 54.34. Took losses on early positions but now holding an average price of 51.90. Will continue to happily collect yield in the meantime, dump all at 50 and then start rebuilding position again at 53-56.
  • #288
  • Dec 5, 2014 9:59am Dec 5, 2014 9:59am
Watching for bounce off kijun on 4 hour, see attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 66 KB
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #289
  • Dec 5, 2014 5:04pm Dec 5, 2014 5:04pm
I also think we will bounce up on monday. Once 54 is cleared, we should be able to go to 1.56 before a larger bounce down off of the upper trend line. Of course the RCB will be selling off USD along the way as well.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #290
  • Dec 5, 2014 5:43pm Dec 5, 2014 5:43pm
I think it's definitely possible that we topped out, but I remain cautious. Whenever the top does come, there will be plenty of opportunities to make fortunes off of the new downtrend in USD/RUB when it starts. Of course it's always nice to get in at or near the top and then set a break even stop loss and ride it all the way.... we'll see what happens. I'm 100% sure shorting USD/RUB is going to be one of the best plays there is sooner or later. The fact that it has went parabolic to upside only makes it that much more profitable to short long term
  • #291
  • Dec 5, 2014 7:22pm Dec 5, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting Ck87
I think it's definitely possible that we topped out, but I remain cautious. Whenever the top does come, there will be plenty of opportunities to make fortunes off of the new downtrend in USD/RUB when it starts. Of course it's always nice to get in at or near the top and then set a break even stop loss and ride it all the way.... we'll see what happens. I'm 100% sure shorting USD/RUB is going to be one of the best plays there is sooner or later. The fact that it has went parabolic to upside only makes it that much more profitable to short long term...
The Russian economy is only getting weaker though. Why would it have topped out already when the Russians are probably going to return to recession?
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #292
  • Dec 5, 2014 10:15pm Dec 5, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting jcb94
{quote} The Russian economy is only getting weaker though. Why would it have topped out already when the Russians are probably going to return to recession?
Because it can already be priced in after a parabolic move like that after the sanctions.
  • #293
  • Dec 5, 2014 10:39pm Dec 5, 2014 10:39pm
Useful. Thanks for reminding us about the ichi; i've been using another template for a while.

...
Quoting whackdiddy
Watching for bounce off kijun on 4 hour, see attached. {image}
  • #294
  • Dec 6, 2014 3:33am Dec 6, 2014 3:33am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Because it can already be priced in after a parabolic move like that after the sanctions.
Fair enough but I still see it getting weaker. Even the CBR's $1.9 billion intervention on Wednesday wasn't enough to stop it!
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #295
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:11pm Dec 8, 2014 1:11pm
Interesting Resolution has been passed yesterday in US Congress, it seems that conflict in Ukraine will last many months and it is hard to imagine what consequences it can canuse.
http://www.inquisitr.com/1660380/wor...aims-ron-paul/
  • #296
  • Dec 9, 2014 4:11am Dec 9, 2014 4:11am
To all shorters

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7853878

My post a month ago....

Keep shorting
For my fallen angels.
  • #297
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:28pm Dec 9, 2014 1:28pm
Taking a short on USDRUB is totally useless. All the corrections which were on USDRUB in recent days were caused by Bank of Russia as a results of its interventions. Check out CBR data which shows that Bank of Russia can spend up to 2bn USD a day to stop the depreciation of Ruble.
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/hd_base/Defaul...tId=valint_day
  • #298
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:50pm Dec 9, 2014 1:50pm
Yer, I know how you feel, it keeps chopping badly in a tight range on a daily basis. I've drawn a box around the range of bars and put pending orders either side awaiting for the next proper move...
  • #299
  • Dec 10, 2014 7:38am Dec 10, 2014 7:38am
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/...-ruble-around/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-way-...181821653.html
http://russia-insider.com/en/busines...e_overshooting
http://www.charter97.org/en/news/2014/12/9/129909/

I am at a loss as to figuring out what to do so here are some articles to read for us all. ... Now I'll start reading. Tempted to short and the meeting of the CBR is tomorrow at 13:30 Moscow time. I won't be up for it tonight in Honolulu. Let's see whether anyone thinks Russia CAN do anything at this point.

There was one article on FF about the OPEC meeting coming up. . .soon.
  • #300
  • Dec 10, 2014 8:24am Dec 10, 2014 8:24am
Leaving for work with:
buy at 47.17870
sell at 55.42000

May gain nothing. At least won't lose my account. Will be up 2 1/2 hours AFTER the CBR meeting.
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