Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#88,101
Dec 8, 2014 10:53pm Dec 8, 2014 10:53pm

bogus
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Symbol | 2,788 Posts

.8215 if you look at Monthly. I expect a bounce. I'm in a long on EA but not short AU. .8215 should work out nicely with EA 1,50

FF journal: Peaks and Troffs

#88,102
Dec 8, 2014 11:41pm Dec 8, 2014 11:41pm

2+2=4ex
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 6,418 Posts

Price is near a major trend line support as illustrated on the attached weekly chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

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#88,103
Dec 8, 2014 11:43pm Dec 8, 2014 11:43pm

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting VaBikePacker

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{quote} Let's look under the hood of the "raging dollar bull" right now though - it's happening mostly due to USDX climbing...and...(finger taps on chin) - what currency is the dollar weighted most heavily against in the USDX equation?? So...is it really a raging dollar bull?

Ignored

are you mixing up between the Dollar Basket DXY and the USD Index USDX??

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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#88,104
Dec 8, 2014 11:54pm Dec 8, 2014 11:54pm

VaBikePacker
Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Trader | 719 Posts

Quoting fxtyrant

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{quote} are you mixing up between the Dollar Basket DXY and the USD Index USDX??

Ignored

looks here like DXY and USDX probably have the same composition..(speedy look....)

Happy to check out any more info you have on DXY...

"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.

#88,105
Dec 9, 2014 12:02am Dec 9, 2014 12:02am

Ken A
Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts

Dollar Index/Dixie/DXY/USDX

57.6% = Euro (EUR)
13.6% = Japanese Yen (JPY)
11.9% = Pound-sterling (GBP)
9.1% = Canadian Dollar (CAD)
4.2% = Swedish Krona (SEK)
3.6% = Swiss Franc (CHF)

#88,106
Dec 9, 2014 12:04am Dec 9, 2014 12:04am

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting VaBikePacker

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{quote} looks here like DXY and USDX probably have the same composition..(speedy look....) Happy to check out any more info you have on DXY...

Ignored

DXY composition

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

and the USDX, of which i mean the Trade Weighted Dollar index, (ie the dollar strength against the entire world) here it is.
in that page. look at 1 year and you see the USD is also rising hard against the rest of the world.
both are indications that Yes Big Dollar Raging Bull...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TWEXB

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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#88,107
Dec 9, 2014 12:05am Dec 9, 2014 12:05am

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting Ken A

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Dollar Index/Dixie/DXY/USDX 57.6% = Euro (EUR) 13.6% = Japanese Yen (JPY) 11.9% = Pound-sterling (GBP) 9.1% = Canadian Dollar (CAD) 4.2% = Swedish Krona (SEK) 3.6% = Swiss Franc (CHF)

Ignored

theres a few dollar indexes, populare use is the DXY i agree, but when i want to prove that the US Dollar is a raging dollar bull atm... best to compare it with the entire world currency basket.
TWEXB does it best.

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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#88,108
Dec 9, 2014 12:11am Dec 9, 2014 12:11am

VaBikePacker
Joined Apr 2014 | Status: Trader | 719 Posts

My point being that with the EUR (negative interest rate and in free fall for a while now) is the heaviest weighting. We're talking about a central bank with a MUCH higher yield right now - even if they drop rates, they'll still be a good bit ahead of everything in that basket..

"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.

#88,109
Dec 9, 2014 12:14am Dec 9, 2014 12:14am

four.owls
| Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 226 Posts

Quoting Rtm

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{quote} AYE AYE captain,

Ignored

LOL so I did the opposite and scalped it nicely thanks very much!! But yes I can see the Bearish sentiment but statements such as 'short the hell out of it' do make me a little curious as the last few times I did follow forum advice too carefully I lost, umm, nice sums of money! However I suspect we may get some downward movement, or the appearance of it, some congestion a retrace up and then play the game all over again! I used to be a fan of trend trading but now I just cruise around taking nibbles (1-3% or more if it is there) bites over the 1 to 2 hour mark. I must admit that if a trade hasn't done what I thought it would within the hour I get wary (but then I struggle to sit still too you know!).
Enjoy the game!

#88,110
Dec 9, 2014 12:26am Dec 9, 2014 12:26am

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting VaBikePacker

Disliked

My point being that with the EUR (negative interest rate and in free fall for a while now) is the heaviest weighting. We're talking about a central bank with a MUCH higher yield right now - even if they drop rates, they'll still be a good bit ahead of everything in that basket..

Ignored

but unlike the EURO, Australia Needs that higher yield to attract foreign direct invesment into their country? why? because the nature of Australia's economy is still very much heavily dependent on Raw Materials and Resources....
just like Russia, Russia has huge amounts of Gas, but Russian Rubble is not the international reserve currency, hence their central bank rates are off the roof too...
Saudi arabia too.
Newzealand is milk and meat....

sooooo do not simply think that a country with High Yields in central bank rates would be enough to attract money flowing into their economy, you also need to consider the underlying economic engines..... which in Australia is Resources, and heck commodity prices are hitting AUD hard...

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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#88,111
Dec 9, 2014 12:29am Dec 9, 2014 12:29am

Balmain Boy
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 254 Posts

Quote

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AUD/USD 1822 - 2013

What a piece of absolute garbage !!

Australian Dollar as a currency only came into existence in 1966.

Quoting skyhok

Disliked

{quote} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_pound "The history of currency in Australia could be said to begin in 1800, when Governor Philip Gidley King issued a proclamation ..........................................."

Ignored

Which only confirms your error.
I'll repeat, there was no Australian Dollar currency pre-1966, so to put up a chart of AUD vs USD going back to 1822 is absolute bollocks ! Did you miss this bit where you yourself quoted from Wikipedia, "On 14 February 1966, a decimal currency, the dollar of one hundred cents, was introduced"

#88,112
Dec 9, 2014 12:39am Dec 9, 2014 12:39am

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting Balmain Boy

Disliked

{quote} {quote} Which only confirms your error. I'll repeat, there was no Australian Dollar currency pre-1966, so to put up a chart of AUD vs USD going back to 1822 is absolute bollocks ! Did you miss this bit where you yourself quoted from Wikipedia, "On 14 February 1966, a decimal currency, the dollar of one hundred cents, was introduced"

Ignored

but but... Australia has had currency dating back to 1822.... just probably not the australian pound and im pretty sure the chart he had depicted the Australia's money whatever it was (considering the conversion from old to new currency) against the dollar..

Just like people asking how can we find what the EURO was trading at before 1999, well Euro was majority converted from the Deutsche mach, so using the deutsche mach vs USD before 1999 for a historical eur/usd makes sense.

EDIT: just a warning for you, better tone it down a bit.

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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#88,113
Dec 9, 2014 12:47am Dec 9, 2014 12:47am

trader700
| Joined Sep 2014 | Status: watching | 114 Posts

Quoting fxtyrant

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{quote} .EDIT: just a warning for you, better tone it down a bit.

Ignored

Agree

#88,114
Dec 9, 2014 12:53am Dec 9, 2014 12:53am

skyhok
Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts

Quoting Balmain Boy

Disliked

{quote} {quote} Which only confirms your error. I'll repeat, there was no Australian Dollar currency pre-1966, so to put up a chart of AUD vs USD going back to 1822 is absolute bollocks ! Did you miss this bit where you yourself quoted from Wikipedia, "On 14 February 1966, a decimal currency, the dollar of one hundred cents, was introduced"

Ignored

Definitely, there were trades between countries like USA & Australia and people do exchange currencies before the year 1966.
I'm neither an economist nor a historian to concern about how the currencies come about. I'll leave that to you.
I'm just a trader who analyse charts of markets for better entry, exit and management of my trades.

Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades

#88,115
Dec 9, 2014 2:58am Dec 9, 2014 2:58am

Balmain Boy
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 254 Posts

Quoting skyhok

Disliked

{quote} Definitely, there were trades between countries like USA & Australia and people do exchange currencies before the year 1966. I'm neither an economist nor a historian to concern about how the currencies come about. I'll leave that to you. I'm just a trader who analyse charts of markets for better entry, exit and management of my trades.

Ignored

Yes of course there were currency exchanges between Australia and U.S.A before 1966 , but they didn't involve Australian Dollars
as the currency did not exist as such.
Australian pounds pre-1966.

#88,116
Dec 9, 2014 3:02am Dec 9, 2014 3:02am

fxtyrant
Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts

Quoting Balmain Boy

Disliked

{quote} Yes of course there were currency exchanges between Australia and U.S.A before 1966 , but they didn't involve Australian Dollars as the currency did not exist as such. Australian pounds pre-1966.

Ignored

yea but you can convert 1 australian pound to find what the historic value of the australian dollar is...

its just like before EURO existed Deutsche Mark was the Euro.... okay maybe 1 deutschmark at that timew as around 0.95 euro or something...
but 1 Australian Pound can be converted to 1 Australian Dollar to plot a longer historical of the AUDUSD chart.

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.

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