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  • #361
  • Dec 7, 2014 8:36pm Dec 7, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Ok, I'm a bit confused with what's going on with this thread, the current explorer trades are not in line with the initial premis. Apart from the the CAD trade which is at least with the trend, I don't understand why you are currently buying lows in EU & GU. This is not selling rallies or selling tops of ranges, it's contrarian trading. The gold trade is similarly unclear. Are you anticipating a trend reverse here? Last point, where are the Yen trades? Aussie? major trending pairs that really don't come more obvious. Sorry I don't want to...
Quidsey and gmann,

You are both very astute. In answer to your question about the EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades. Those trades occurred during this last friday's NFP and I was teaching a class on how to enter using very small time frames and the range break ideas that have been discussed earlier using levels. Those trades were intended for demonstration for the class and not meant to be part of this discussion. The method used to find trades that I am advocating here on this thread has not changed. However, I have been absent of late due to personal issues and have not been able to be as active here as I've wanted to be.

In so far as the XAU/USD trade (Gold), I did post that trade earlier last week and still have that running from the original assessment. (Post #356). Just to recap. Last week brought an enormous bullish engulfing bar that stopped me out of my short positions. This bar produced BOTH a higher low and a higher high, which qualifies as a reversal albeit extremely rare. I have two positions that have triggered from that assessment, and am currently waiting to see what becomes of them. As well the USD/CAD position (long) has a stop locking in profit of about 100 pips or so, but this pair looks like it is struggling with the highs of the year.

I have left the demo trades (Long EUR/USD and GBP/USD) running over the week end out of curiosity just to see if they produce or end up like most trades taken against the trend. It will be the topic of much debate over coming classes. A good teaching tool I think.

Sorry for the confusion...
  • #362
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:29am Dec 8, 2014 1:29am
Quoting gspajon
Sorry for the confusion...
Ah ok, I didn't realise you had other trading stuff going on at the same time. Thanks for the explanation.
  • #363
  • Dec 8, 2014 8:16am Dec 8, 2014 8:16am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Ah ok, I didn't realise you had other trading stuff going on at the same time. Thanks for the explanation.
No worries mate! I'm trying to stay as busy as possible...I find that even though I am no master (yet), teaching others what I have learned to be true, helps anchor it in my mind as well. It is an excellent way to keep on top of your skills. I highly recommend it. Just let your "students" know that you too are still learning and that you can only bring their level to yours...after that perhaps you can both learn from each other.
  • #364
  • Dec 8, 2014 12:03pm Dec 8, 2014 12:03pm
I have closed out the trades in question on EUR/USD & GBP/USD. Again I apologize for the confusion. In the future I will use a different demo account for classes.
  • #365
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:15pm Dec 8, 2014 1:15pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} where are the Yen trades? Aussie? major trending pairs that really don't come more obvious.
Indeed. Very OBVIOUS trend across all Yen pairs. My favorite of the bunch would have to be UJ. Any entries taken in the direction of the trend dating back to the beginning of October would have been profitable.

I don't typically like trendlines as 'steep' as the one we currently have on UJ but at this point I'm willing to find an entry on the current retrace.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Another possible & more reliable entry would be the previous resistance around the 118.60-80 area. Old resistance often turns support in steady uptrends.

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  • #366
  • Dec 9, 2014 9:32am Dec 9, 2014 9:32am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting eggs
{quote} I don't typically like trendlines as 'steep' as the one we currently have on UJ
Note to self.... Don't take trades off trendlines this steep
  • #367
  • Dec 9, 2014 4:13pm Dec 9, 2014 4:13pm
Update on USD/CAD:

After today's volatility I'm reading a dark cloud showing on this pair. Possible "rain" ahead. I have moved my stop up to lock 180 pips on this pair...things are looking a bit gloomy for all the USD long positions...

I suspect there is a great deal of book squaring going on....high of the year...at the end of the year...what we in law enforcement call "a clue".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #368
  • Dec 9, 2014 4:21pm Dec 9, 2014 4:21pm
Update on XAU/USD:

Price has broken out of the accumulation range that occurred just after the huge reversal candle. I have been triggered on 2 of the three positions I placed. I will hold this as it is until the end of this week. I kind of expect price to pull back a bit, but on Friday I will look at this again and cancel the lat pending order and adjust the stop as necessary.
Attached Image
  • #369
  • Dec 9, 2014 4:24pm Dec 9, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} Note to self.... Don't take trades off trendlines this steep
I feel your pain bro...
  • #370
  • Dec 9, 2014 5:55pm Dec 9, 2014 5:55pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
{quote} I feel your pain bro...
It ended up working out OK. My conviction to stay bullish kept me in it long enough to scat out of those positions before NY close with a small profit...

Good luck with your gold trade man.
  • #371
  • Dec 14, 2014 6:22pm Dec 14, 2014 6:22pm
New Trade Opportunity

USD/JPY: Long

Trend: There is a clear and obvious bullish trend in place with higher highs and higher lows forming. Price has retraced back to the last level of resistance

Retrace: the last retrace or sell off happened quickly and price stalled right at the level where the last attempt to reverse the current trend occurred. Since the sell off price has formed a range just above the last support level.

Signal: the last complete candle (finishing on Friday) produced an inner bar. This signal (if triggered) usually has a 76% chance of winning at least to the first take profit level.

I have placed a pending order above the high of the inner bar, with a stop below the low of this retrace and a target of 175 pips. I have also placed a second pending order at the lower level of the range that has formed over the past two days. My thought on this is that if this level holds it will produce a greater risk to reward ratio, and if this level breaks it is a very low risk trade. This second pending order has the same stop as the original, but no limit. Considering the huge move that recently took place I am unsure that this has much more bullish sentiment left before a significant retrace. However, since the accumulation range is occurring at a high level, I am anticipating at least a 2nd run to the highs of the year before the next retrace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #372
  • Dec 14, 2014 8:23pm Dec 14, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting gspajon
New Trade Opportunity USD/JPY: Long Trend: There is a clear and obvious bullish trend in place with higher highs and higher lows forming. Price has retraced back to the last level of resistance Retrace: the last retrace or sell off happened quickly and price stalled right at the level where the last attempt to reverse the current trend occurred. Since the sell off price has formed a range just above the last support level. Signal: the last complete candle (finishing on Friday) produced an inner bar. This signal (if triggered) usually has a 76% chance...

Nice call gs. Agree with that but need to aware of big RN @ 120.00. However, price flew through that last time, and the fact that it is such a shallow retrace (so far) is hopefully a sign that the trend still has some strength.

Many thanks for posting.
  • #373
  • Dec 15, 2014 10:43am Dec 15, 2014 10:43am
Update on USD/CAD:

No chart to show (checking on cell phone)...but long postion limited out with 400+ pips.

USD/JPY still stuck in its small range and as well XAU/USD still deciding what to do.

Thanks ken for your confidence. ..we'll just have to see what the market decides to do being so close to Christmas we may just sit here.
  • #374
  • Dec 15, 2014 3:38pm Dec 15, 2014 3:38pm
USD/JPY long triggered at 117.75. Sorry again no screen shot to share as I am on a cell phone. Position is just slightly positive. We'll have to wait and see what develops
  • #375
  • Dec 15, 2014 9:44pm Dec 15, 2014 9:44pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
That's a good trade setup on the UJ gas. As a trader you somehow have to justify getting into the market at these levels. It's where the long play money would be. You take enough of these high probability setups with proper position sizing & positive risk reward targets you'll come out on top. Nice work.
  • #376
  • Edited Dec 16, 2014 8:47am Dec 15, 2014 10:45pm | Edited Dec 16, 2014 8:47am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Yo gas... I've noticed the stops on most of your trades are almost exactly equal to the lows or highs. Just a thought but if you're risking a 53 point stop why not kick it up to 60 just to avoid getting stopped out by only a matter of pips. These kind of levels are often quickly & falsely broken. Don't get me wrong... There's a fine line between holding on to a loser... & minimizing your chances of getting stopped out with an exact touch & subsequent bounce from that low on 11.27...

Edit: Never mind lol... I woke up to see the floor had fallen out. Sorry about your trade mate. She'll find support again & we'll reload.
  • #377
  • Dec 15, 2014 11:42pm Dec 15, 2014 11:42pm
Quoting eggs
Yo gas... I've noticed the stops on most of your trades are almost exactly equal to the lows or highs. Just a thought but if you're risking a 53 point stop why not kick it up to 60 just to avoid getting stopped out by only a matter of pips. These kind of levels are often quickly & falsely broken. Don't get me wrong... There's a fine line between holding on to a loser... & minimizing your chances of getting stopped out with an exact touch & subsequent bounce from that low on 11.27...
On the lower time frames I use a 3 pip safety gap and on 4 hour and above I use 10 pips. Setting it to the exact pip is no good IMO.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #378
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:28am Dec 16, 2014 11:28am
Quoting eggs
Yo gas... I've noticed the stops on most of your trades are almost exactly equal to the lows or highs. Just a thought but if you're risking a 53 point stop why not kick it up to 60 just to avoid getting stopped out by only a matter of pips. These kind of levels are often quickly & falsely broken. Don't get me wrong... There's a fine line between holding on to a loser... & minimizing your chances of getting stopped out with an exact touch & subsequent bounce from that low on 11.27... Edit: Never mind lol... I woke up to see the floor had...
Eggs...I understand just where you are coming from in deciding where to place the stop. This has always been a dilemma for me. While trying to minimize the exposure to loss AND simultaneously allow just enough room for the market to "breath". I have had to "shoot for the middle". As you can see below, it really didn't matter where I placed the stop, it would've stopped out...interestingly, the original trigger for an upside break didn't get hit...go figure!!

I have found that waiting for the market to "exhaust" and thereby finish its retrace seems more valuable an observation to place my efforts. It is a far more subtle thing to detect but can clearly have more advantages than risks. The chart below illustrates what I would feel is one of many signs of and exhaustion playing out. However, as previously noted, it is occurring very close (even at this point) to the high. There may even be some more room left to move down further....it is the end of the year and I suspect much "book squaring" going on.

That being said, I have placed yet another long trade on this pair and will again place the stop at the bottom of today's candle. At the end of the day today I will adjust the pending order accordingly or perhaps just cancel it, depending on what I see.

Placing and moving stops are (to me) a very finely tuned art form, balancing one desire (to maximize profit) with another desire (minimize risk), in the context of the current and anticipated market volatility. Again, I try to stick with what appears obvious to me with the idea that if it is obvious to me, the entire world can also see it and therefore will trade it in a similar fashion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #379
  • Dec 16, 2014 11:41am Dec 16, 2014 11:41am
Quoting bogus
{quote} On the lower time frames I use a 3 pip safety gap and on 4 hour and above I use 10 pips. Setting it to the exact pip is no good IMO.
Hi bogus, I do something very similar when I am intraday trading futures. Again as I stated above, it still comes down to a very fine balancing act. I have had stops as high as 30 pips on a 3 min chart because I just didn't know where the counter trend move would exhaust. Often times I don't really need that much but sometimes I stop out with that much as well...one just never "knows" for sure.

One of the things I hate the most about trading is what I term the "Fu## you stop". I'm sure everyone here is familiar with it. its that point were the market will take your stop (sometimes to the damn pip) and then move your way to where your limit was...its the market saying "Fu## YOU! No money for you!" So I try to avoid moving my stop until I see that move complete...then after the price has left the area...move my stop...it usually ends up being within 3-5 pips of where I would've put it anyway...but without all the drama.
  • #380
  • Dec 16, 2014 9:54pm Dec 16, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Hi bogus, I do something very similar when I am intraday trading futures. Again as I stated above, it still comes down to a very fine balancing act. I have had stops as high as 30 pips on a 3 min chart because I just didn't know where the counter trend move would exhaust. Often times I don't really need that much but sometimes I stop out with that much as well...one just never "knows" for sure. One of the things I hate the most about trading is what I term the "Fu## you stop". I'm sure everyone here is familiar with it. its that point were...
I know what you mean
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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