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Which indicator has the highest probability to predict price

  • #41
  • Dec 6, 2014 10:58am Dec 6, 2014 10:58am
Next to all the fun...

I like prediction... and there are some tools, which make a prediction based on chart history and patterns.
Please find attached some... best results i had with vanga. Oracle is also not so bad...

Also there many people working on neural network solutions, which predict not so bad...

http://www.forex-forecasting.com/

try it, may help you
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Vanga.ex4   5 KB | 2,227 downloads
File Type: ex4 WmiFor30.ex4   15 KB | 1,494 downloads
File Type: mq4 WmiFor30.mq4   25 KB | 1,632 downloads
File Type: ex4 Oracle.ex4   16 KB | 1,888 downloads
  • #42
  • Dec 6, 2014 11:08am Dec 6, 2014 11:08am
Hey Akvisto, you're a positive thinker dude. thanks
What would you do if you knew you could not fail?
  • #43
  • Dec 6, 2014 11:19am Dec 6, 2014 11:19am
Quoting The Sparrow
Hey Akvisto, you're a positive thinker dude. thanks
Thats true :-)... my pleasure...
  • #44
  • Edited Dec 7, 2014 1:11am Dec 6, 2014 11:47am | Edited Dec 7, 2014 1:11am
Also what i can say due my own analyses, that any backtesting for the most indicators is for nothing.

For that we have developed a own monitoring system for indicators, where we test indicators
in real time, with analysing tools to make it based on probability calculation. Thats the most safe way.

In the moment we are testing FerruFX new MTF tools.

FFx ADX Dashboard MTF
FFx Candle Dashboard MTF
FFx CCI Dashboard MTF
FFx Stoch Dashboard MTF
FFx PSAR Dashboard MTF

Results are very good...

That means our MT systems sends BUY/SELL Signals and our monitoring system follows the price from 1 to 480 min and shows drawdown and WIN/LOSS in %

Thats is very helpful to see how indicators react in real time.

If somebody like to have some tests for special indis, we can do that, just need the .mq4 file and if possible with email alert, but please not for common indis,
most are on the long run at 50/50....

attached a sample from results from Ferrus ADX MTF with settings M5,M15,M30,H1,H4,D1.. crossed signal line, current false, Friday between 10-17.00.
from Min. 1-25 alltime over 3-10 Pips in plus, first drawdown after 25 min...

and one from CCI MTF Dashboard, Friday same time, M5,M15,M30,H1, crossed level 150 with period of 20...

and one from PSAR MTF Dashboard, Friday same time, M5,M15,M30 standard settings, this one is my favorite...
combined with M5, M15,M30,H1,H4 brings appr. 20 signals per day on main pairs and for the short time until 15 Minutes are very good.

All this 7 Dashboard are in test...and look all very good for us...great work Ferru as all time...


Have a nice weekend..
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  • #45
  • Dec 6, 2014 7:48pm Dec 6, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting Akvisto
In the moment we are testing FerruFX new MTF tools.
Thank you Akvisto for your support. However I would request you to remove the links about these tools because they are commercial and they have nothing to do here.

Thank you.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #46
  • Dec 6, 2014 11:31pm Dec 6, 2014 11:31pm
Quoting The Sparrow
My My such Nay Sayers, the trader asked for the HIGHEST PROBABILITY Indicator NOT the PERFECT indicator. I'm sure in all of FF someone must have some statistics.
U have "candlestick"..it is indicator
  • #47
  • Dec 6, 2014 11:56pm Dec 6, 2014 11:56pm
My 2 biggest indicators that have worked well for me is the actual candlesticks and bollinger bands. The bands give me incredible insight when I'm counter-trading a good resistence point. They are not however an entry indicator, but give you general direction that you should probably not trade against the general direction based on the previous week.
  • #48
  • Dec 6, 2014 11:57pm Dec 6, 2014 11:57pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Thank you Akvisto for your support. However I would request you to remove the links about these tools because they are commercial and they have nothing to do here. Thank you.
Thank for the advise.. I did not know that... I am new at forex factory... I will remove...
  • #49
  • Dec 7, 2014 12:04am Dec 7, 2014 12:04am
Quoting Akvisto
{quote} Thank for the advise.. I did not know that... I am new at forex factory... I will remove...
Thank you.

You are a great support anyway on other places ( ) but here on FF, promoting isn't allowed outside the 'commercial' section ... and I am not a commercial member here.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #50
  • Dec 7, 2014 12:31am Dec 7, 2014 12:31am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Thank you. You are a great support anyway on other places ( ) but here on FF, promoting isn't allowed outside the 'commercial' section ... and I am not a commercial member here.
Was not my intention to promote, just that people find, about what I am writing... Thanks anyway..
  • #51
  • Dec 7, 2014 12:40am Dec 7, 2014 12:40am
Since all technical indicators are derived from the same source information (candlestick OHLC) it is logically impossible for one to be constantly more predictive than the others.

If you want an indicator to have a different probability of predicting price than the others, it needs to be calculated from different source data.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #52
  • Dec 7, 2014 1:01am Dec 7, 2014 1:01am
The thread asked for "indicator with highest probability ..." of telling the next price direction. It is not impossible because we are just asking for "highest probability..." and not absolute certainty.
This is what I think -- (not a joke)
Short of having a crystal ball, the next closest thing would be a time machine. Since I don't have a time machine, the closest I can think of is front running the next order in the market. Since most people don't see the dealer's order books, a trader could use one of those high-frequency co-location firm's trading machines, to give an indication of what the next order(s) waiting in line is above or below the current market. Besides probably being illegal, that kind of machine is out of my reach too. So this is what I use... I believe "momentum often leads price". So I use a momentum oscillator (RSI, Stochastic, or MACD), and trade in direction of momentum (but not right in front of major support/resistance, or news). Momentum divergence from price direction also gives me heads up warning that price may change direction soon. To me, momentum is my indicator with highest probability. You may not trust momentum indicators, and that's fine with me. Thanks.
  • #53
  • Dec 7, 2014 1:03am Dec 7, 2014 1:03am
Quoting numbnuts
Since all technical indicators are derived from the same source information (candlestick OHLC) it is logically impossible for one to be constantly more predictive than the others. If you want an indicator to have a different probability of predicting price than the others, it needs to be calculated from different source data.
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #54
  • Dec 7, 2014 1:17am Dec 7, 2014 1:17am
IMO, they all the same. Indicator that works in trending market usually failed in range situation. Vise versa.
  • #55
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:07am Dec 7, 2014 4:07am
RSI, as it is based on a simple momentum calculation, and all kinds of studies show momentum is the best predictor of future prices from past prices.

Works better looking back several weeks than several minutes.
  • #56
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:48am Dec 7, 2014 4:48am
sorry I've not read the whole thread but why woul you try to predict price with something that is created from price in the first place? Unless you are talking about using an indicator based on a different data such as volume or cot reports etc..
  • #57
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:26am Dec 7, 2014 5:26am
This thread is evidence alone that few will ever make it.
You guys have to stop doing this. You are looking at the fx market with blinkers on.
There are high probability predictive indicators but you're trying to find them with a retail mentality or from a retail perspective.
Track institutional activity. Then you can just front run them.

Quote
sorry I've not read the whole thread but why woul you try to predict price with something that is created from price in the first place?
Good question red. Simple answer. You can't.
Rgds
  • #58
  • Dec 7, 2014 5:36am Dec 7, 2014 5:36am
Quoting skfx
Good question red. Simple answer. You can't. Rgds
Agreed.

Better yet, when you realise that you can't and actually don't need to - that is when it can open your eyes and allow you to do well with trading.
  • #59
  • Dec 7, 2014 6:02am Dec 7, 2014 6:02am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} Agreed. Better yet, when you realise that you can't and actually don't need to - that is when it can open your eyes and allow you to do well with trading.
Yes Nefser.
I would say though, to actually do well at trading you first have to know what you're doing. Most retail traders have absolutely no idea and don't know where to go from there. It really is just a nasty loop.
The only way they cut out of it is to go broke, give up concluding it is an impossibility, or they finally realise they have been approaching it incorrectly, and more than likely someone that does know showing them.

You can be disciplined, you can be hard working, you can be a lot of things. But without knowledge you really having nothing to work from.
If the knowledge you have is not based on the reality of things, then whatever you think is useful will be leading you blindly to the slaughter.
If you're profitable, well done. If you're struggling then maybe the knowledge you have now just isn't based on the reality of things.
Rgds
  • #60
  • Dec 7, 2014 6:26am Dec 7, 2014 6:26am
Quoting a222a
hi, How do You think which indicator will shows with highest probability on currency pair where the price will be in one of this TF 15m ,30m or one hour. All i need is 0,3 pip up or down versus current price. Any thoughts will be appreciated. Thanks
Nobody was asking you... For which kind trading or purpose you need such a indicator. Guess it's not related to FX trading most people give answers. Sounds more for binary options... And here will help not one standalone indicator, which exists.
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