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  • #13,641
  • Dec 6, 2014 9:27am Dec 6, 2014 9:27am
Quoting Lukaszmiami
Million dollar worth knowledge {image}
Happy to see you doing good friend.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,642
  • Dec 6, 2014 2:48pm Dec 6, 2014 2:48pm
Dont get me wrong, im not millionare....yet ;D
  • #13,643
  • Dec 7, 2014 2:26am Dec 7, 2014 2:26am
Sir Tony

You are using Oanda and making consistent profit. Since it is a market maker and you are winning its money, does it make you any trouble in trading?
(I am looking for a broker to fit the 15/100 strategy)
  • #13,644
  • Dec 7, 2014 4:18am Dec 7, 2014 4:18am
Quoting Tony112
Next week: AUD Employment Change SL 15 TP 120 Direction: coin toss
Hi Tony

Is the SL and TP based on 4 digits or 5 digits broker?
  • #13,645
  • Edited 6:02am Dec 7, 2014 4:31am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting Tony112
Direction: coin toss
Why not trade both directions? You have just 15 pips to lose but 150 pips to gain. Statistically it gives you a better edge.
  • #13,646
  • Dec 7, 2014 10:55pm Dec 7, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting mina1
{quote} Why not trade both directions? You have just 15 pips to lose but 150 pips to gain. Statistically it gives you a better edge.
Have you tried it ? Tell us what's your result trading both direction.I think if market produce some spike you can lose in both direction.
The master knows exactly the right time to do nothing.
  • #13,647
  • Dec 8, 2014 12:55am Dec 8, 2014 12:55am
Quoting mina1
{quote} Why not trade both directions? You have just 15 pips to lose but 150 pips to gain. Statistically it gives you a better edge.

I will once and for all demystify the reason why I don't take both sides or buy/sell at the same time.

Based on the fact that you have 1000$ cash to invest and cannot invest more:

scenario a: only 1 order (buy OR sell) ----> 1 pip maximum possible value = 3$
scenario b: 2 orders (buy AND sell) ----> 1 pip maximum possible value = 1.50$ for each order

scenario a: 100 pips = 300$
scenario b: 100 pips = 150$

It is understood that scenario b has TWICE the chances of winning (with 2 orders) but will win 50% less per pip. Moral of the story: Toss the coin.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,648
  • Dec 8, 2014 3:49am Dec 8, 2014 3:49am
Quoting Talvinen
Hi Tony, I backtested 'only buy’ strategy and 'only buystop' strategy since 2010 (unemployment news). The results are quite similar, but ‘only buystop’ strategy gives more even distribution. With one pending order whipsaws/double losses are avoided and spread 20 pips is bearable. The only big problem would be slippage. You said there is no slippage with SLs at your broker, what about slippage with pending orders? And why don't you trade xau/usd during nfp? Some spread/leverage issues? It seems even with spread 30-40 pips (i.e. sl 25-30 pips) it...
It seems my questions have got lost in the thread. I found info about spread on xau/usd, it is around 28 pips during news release. I know there is no slippage on stop losses, and it would be logical that there is no slippage on pending orders also, but post #13175 hint that some slippage is actually present. I am planning to trade news live with Oanda soon but must decide first which strategy to use: market buy or pending buy, so Tony or anyone who have experience with Oanda, how much slippage is on pending orders if any?
  • #13,649
  • Dec 8, 2014 4:28am Dec 8, 2014 4:28am
Thanks Tony Now we understand better.

BTW how many times have you doubled your account? Since 2009 when you started using this strategy.

Is this the only strategy you still use?

Others feel free to share your success stories!
  • #13,650
  • Dec 8, 2014 5:59am Dec 8, 2014 5:59am
Hi Talvinen

In the short time I've used Oanda, I've had no slippage on pending orders during announcements. Ditto for stops.

Tony buys shortly before the announcement, if this is what you mean by "market buy".

@ mina1: I think you're asking about straddling announcements. If I've understood Tony's trading style, he likes to go all in on announcements, pushing his bankroll and leverage (gearing) as far as is reasonably possible. But if you're a more conservative trader, preferring to trade only a small percentage of your bank, there's probably no reason why you couldn't straddle. At least I've done so successfully with several brokers -- until they caught me at it and stopped me doing it. Perhaps Oanda would let you get away with it, however, given their sophisticated market algos. They could probably still make money from your straddle trades on the basis of their widening spreads during the news -- a win-win for you and them. Caveat: this is speculative. if anyone knows otherwise, don't hesitate to shoot me down.

@ Tony: apologies if I've misinterpreted you in any way above.
  • #13,651
  • Dec 8, 2014 8:10am Dec 8, 2014 8:10am
Quoting Talvinen
{quote} It seems my questions have got lost in the thread. I found info about spread on xau/usd, it is around 28 pips during news release. I know there is no slippage on stop losses, and it would be logical that there is no slippage on pending orders also, but post #13175 hint that some slippage is actually present. I am planning to trade news live with Oanda soon but must decide first which strategy to use: market buy or pending buy, so Tony or anyone who have experience with Oanda, how much slippage is on pending orders if any?
Sorry Talvien if your post got lost like many other. I don't see any slippage at all with Oanda. As for Gold spread, I'm not very familiar with it. I suggest you observe numerous news before trying it out. I suggest min SL to be at least half + 5 of the actual maximum spread during peak of news, for gold trades.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,652
  • Dec 8, 2014 9:15pm Dec 8, 2014 9:15pm
Guys what are your thoughts to use the DailyFX calendar to identify news opportunities?

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

The number of tradable news events (red ones, high importance) is lower than FF - potentially closer to your cream of the crop trades.

However, there are some yellow ones in Daily FX that you trade in FF - for example last weeks AUD retail sales.
  • #13,653
  • Dec 8, 2014 9:20pm Dec 8, 2014 9:20pm
This week there is

AUD Employment
USD Advanced retail sales

Do you guys ever trade rates decisions? I haven't seen any post that contain interest rate trades.

There are two this week: NZD and CHF
  • #13,654
  • Dec 8, 2014 10:10pm Dec 8, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting mina1
This week there is AUD Employment USD Advanced retail sales Do you guys ever trade rates decisions? I haven't seen any post that contain interest rate trades. There are two this week: NZD and CHF
Mina allow me to help you with something even simpler. When I started trading a dozen of years ago... I once read: the only good news to trade is NFP.... and you know what, lately it's starting to resemble that...

Take a look at USD/CAD from last week, it's 100 pips flying...

I suggest trading only these, nowadays...

USD NFP
AUD EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
ECB PRESS CONFERENCE
FOMC STATEMENT
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,655
  • Dec 8, 2014 10:41pm Dec 8, 2014 10:41pm
Tony

Do you just do a coin toss when you decide buy/sell?
  • #13,656
  • Dec 8, 2014 10:45pm Dec 8, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} Mina allow me to help you with something even simpler. When I started trading a dozen of years ago... I once read: the only good news to trade is NFP.... and you know what, lately it's starting to resemble that... Take a look at USD/CAD from last week, it's 100 pips flying... I suggest trading only these, nowadays... USD NFP AUD EMPLOYMENT CHANGE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE FOMC STATEMENT
The past couple of months AUD EMPLOYMENT CHANGE seems to have been horrible. Also, CAD EMPLOYMENT and NFP are on the same day at the same time. If they both come out as positive I don't know what that trade would look like.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #13,657
  • Dec 8, 2014 10:47pm Dec 8, 2014 10:47pm
Quoting mina1
This week there is AUD Employment USD Advanced retail sales Do you guys ever trade rates decisions? I haven't seen any post that contain interest rate trades. There are two this week: NZD and CHF
I don't trade Interest Rate Decisions but I am not saying that you can't make money doing so. I looked back at the past three AUD Employment Change and I was not impressed. USD Retail Sales was good the past couple of months but I am looking at a couple of other news releases this week that are not on FF.
Trade at your own risk.
  • #13,658
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:32am Dec 9, 2014 12:32am
Nothing better than icy cold water in wine cup. Wanna add to the pleasure? Walk to the corner store when it's freezing cold and bring it Canada cold home! Enjoy Cold oxygen also gives helps me think better.



edit... hey guys have you noticed I don't talk about Vodka anymore... indeed I'm vodka free since about 4 months.... I hope I don't become boring for you. I'm starting to wise up dudes
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,659
  • Dec 9, 2014 12:36am Dec 9, 2014 12:36am
Quoting jlee425
Tony Do you just do a coin toss when you decide buy/sell?

take a look at this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post7848642
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #13,660
  • Dec 9, 2014 1:56am Dec 9, 2014 1:56am
Quoting Tony112
Unfortunately I need 2 accounts to place orders bigger than 10 Million units

Guys how much do you usually risk per trade?

I am thinking maybe 5% to cover the 18 pips or so stop loss. Assuming 150 pip is your take profit and the market goes your way you could still yield over 40% profit.

However, I read somewhere above it's not unusual to go all in, or as far as the trading platform permits. This is assuming you have an exorbitant balance like Tony's, where "going all in" means effectively risking just a small percentage of the account balance, given he has reached the limits of his trading account!
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