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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,761
  • Dec 4, 2014 4:57pm Dec 4, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Beer, definitely. Not talk about trading...? Is that possible? lol
We traded together in here for almost a year and we finally meet and not talk about it? ... Probably not. It was just a silly shot in the dark.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #16,762
  • Dec 4, 2014 4:59pm Dec 4, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I second that. Really appreciate your valuable contributions, and positive demeanor...
Thanks, I do try to be positive.

Alb can vouch that I can get severely grumpy

But honestly, I think a lot of my old grumpiness was stemming from the stress of getting my business off the ground. Things are going well with that now though so a happier Geppy for all!
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  • #16,763
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:04pm Dec 4, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Thanks, I do try to be positive. Alb can vouch that I can get severely grumpy But honestly, I think a lot of my old grumpiness was stemming from the stress of getting my business off the ground. Things are going well with that now though so a happier Geppy for all!
You? Grumpy? Naaaaaa ....not at all man ... ... You were just intensely "focused" on aggressively trading for that ring. Very stressful for anyone.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #16,764
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:14pm Dec 4, 2014 5:14pm
All this talking about trading has put me into chart update mode. Here's what I'm seeing...

As discussed early in the week, we broke out of the ascending triangle consolidation we were stuck in. Scanning different pairs' charts and seeing this triangle was what prompted me to come back and get long geppy to begin with. I projected the move to take us to a 188 target. That worked well.

Now, I admit, we're in a bit of a lame spot. Tomorrow is NFP which means three things: very little will probably happen tonight in terms of movement, lots of uncertainty going into tomorrow, and the trading week is almost over

Regardless, the trend is still up and I don't see that changing unless the Yen starts seriously strengthening (doubtful) or Sterling drops through it's support base it has been carving out in the 1.5600 zone (more likely).

I think the worst scenario would be the Yen continues to weaken but the the pound drops through 1.5600 and ol' geppy is left in limbo with little movement. At that point I'd probably get back to buying the USD against other majors.

Anyway, here's the chart. you can see that the 50ema (green line) has providing some solid support on the 1-hour chart. But I prefer looking at the 4-hour chart where it's clear we have room to drop a bit... maybe even down to the 187 figure before continuing up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a spike down on NFP regardless of the data so I may consider thinning up my position tonight a bit with the hopes of nabbing some back lower.

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  • #16,765
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:15pm Dec 4, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} You? Grumpy? Naaaaaa ....not at all man ... ... You were just intensely "focused" on aggressively trading for that ring. Very stressful for anyone.
haha, that WAS intense. Glad that's over and I can focus on trading for fun
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,766
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:26pm Dec 4, 2014 5:26pm
Quoting Geppy
All this talking about trading has put me into chart update mode. Here's what I'm seeing... As discussed early in the week, we broke out of the ascending triangle consolidation we were stuck in. Scanning different pairs' charts and seeing this triangle was what prompted me to come back and get long geppy to begin with. I projected the move to take us to a 188 target. That worked well. Now, I admit, we're in a bit of a lame spot. Tomorrow is NFP which means three things: very little will probably happen tonight in terms of movement, lots of uncertainty...
Very similar views brother. Imagine that. Sorry for cross posting but too tired to re-write it all. In fact I'm needing a break here now.

Overall target is the same. Bullish big time in the end. Also expecting a quite night on the charts.

Longer term possibility.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post7921599

Day trading view.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post7921641

Great talking with you again man.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #16,767
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:39pm Dec 4, 2014 5:39pm
"Nomura says USDJPY to 125 by year end"... I think they meant year-end 2015.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...december-2014/
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  • #16,768
  • Dec 4, 2014 5:48pm Dec 4, 2014 5:48pm
Japanese Lawmaker & former Soros Fund Management adviser, Fujimaki says USDJPY to touch 140.00 next year & eventually 200.00

Quoting Geppy
"Nomura says USDJPY to 125 by year end"... I think they meant year-end 2015. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...december-2014/
Risk vs Reward
  • #16,769
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:01pm Dec 4, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting SirJack
Japanese Lawmaker & former Soros Fund Management adviser, Fujimaki says USDJPY to touch 140.00 next year & eventually 200.00 {quote}
haha, that'd be a hell of a ride... I sure hope they're right!
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  • #16,770
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:02pm Dec 4, 2014 6:02pm

Quoting Geppy
{quote} haha, that'd be a hell of a ride... I sure hope they're right!
Risk vs Reward
  • #16,771
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:29pm Dec 4, 2014 6:29pm
Oh dear. It looks like my long at the 50% (187.6) is going to get invalidated. Shame really; we never even retested the 188.2.

Guess I'll wait for a bigger pullback to reload.
  • #16,772
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:32pm Dec 4, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting Vermillion
Oh dear. It looks like my long at the 50% (187.6) is going to get invalidated. Shame really; we never even retested the 188.2. Guess I'll wait for a bigger pullback to reload.
Yeah, really annoying. If 187.40 does not hold I am out. But time for bed now - probably will be s/o tomorrow. The stupid thing is I am right in this 99,9 % of the time ... gotta stick with my setup though ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,773
  • Dec 4, 2014 6:55pm Dec 4, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yeah, really annoying. If 187.40 does not hold I am out. But time for bed now - probably will be s/o tomorrow. The stupid thing is I am right in this 99,9 % of the time ... gotta stick with my setup though ...
I think you nailed it with that last sentence, Hickson. Plan the trade and trade the plan, my man!

I took some off and planning to reload if we get more of a dip. I stacked orders from 188.40 every 20 pips down through 187.80 -- I hope I get them all filled and think I've got a good chance for at least most of them with NFP tomorrow.
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  • #16,774
  • Dec 4, 2014 10:55pm Dec 4, 2014 10:55pm
Quoting Geppy
"Nomura says USDJPY to 125 by year end"... I think they meant year-end 2015. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...december-2014/
Looks like they meant 2014. Dont know if it will be within the next 3 weeks but by the end of 2015 this thing will be up at levels that are hard to imagine today. Geppy wont be no different of course...we will be way up there in the 200īs marching onto new highs....ultimately 315 as a minimum (yes, i know i know :-) ) but I for one would not look for a trend reversal ( not talking about short term dips), this thing will pick up speed.
  • #16,775
  • Dec 5, 2014 12:38am Dec 5, 2014 12:38am
I would recommend looking at the monthly GBPJPY Chart. That is what Gold has been doing in the late 90s, back when the crowd, being put under anesthesia by the media believed, the economy could only go one way because after all we were in a "New Economy". The fundamentals are always developing way before the Western propaganda Outlets start their show.
  • #16,776
  • Dec 5, 2014 6:31am Dec 5, 2014 6:31am
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  • #16,777
  • Dec 5, 2014 6:37am Dec 5, 2014 6:37am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I think you nailed it with that last sentence, Hickson. Plan the trade and trade the plan, my man! I took some off and planning to reload if we get more of a dip. I stacked orders from 188.40 every 20 pips down through 187.80 -- I hope I get them all filled and think I've got a good chance for at least most of them with NFP tomorrow.
My setup was not too bad though ... except the S/O at 187.29 ... it did not go a single one lower. Gosh ... not bad, market makers ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,778
  • Dec 5, 2014 7:13am Dec 5, 2014 7:13am
Hey all! Wow, just woke up and was super surprised to see us 100+ pips higher. I decided to pull the rest of my position off and take everything off the table pre-NFP. No reason for me to risk an easy win while I was sleeping.

Obviously, my hope is that we see some volatility here with NFP and I can buy back in. But if not, that's ok too. I'm happy with what I got (although in hindsight wish I'd kept my full position on obviously).

~17 minutes and counting.
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  • #16,779
  • Dec 5, 2014 7:33am Dec 5, 2014 7:33am
Well, that's that. Wasn't able to re-enter on the spike down because my broker's quotes were all haywire. No worries. Happy with the week and going into the weekend flat. Same game next week
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  • #16,780
  • Dec 5, 2014 10:38am Dec 5, 2014 10:38am
USDJPY 121.50

Quoting SirJack
Japanese Lawmaker & former Soros Fund Management adviser, Fujimaki says USDJPY to touch 140.00 next year & eventually 200.00 {quote}
Risk vs Reward
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