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  • #581
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:54pm Dec 1, 2014 4:54pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Let's spin the cart wheel further... and this is for all the math geniuses out here to ponder (on their own). A wick is a cart wheel with length same as the diameter of the wheel. We have established that. Now average round trip journey is approx. two times the length of wick. Most cart wheel have spikes. Figure out the average length of round trip for monthly or weekly wicks and the average spikes to optimize your costs of sending probes to strategically place them as close to the tip of wick as possible. key phrase is "strategic...

I'm lost... please explain

edit - I think I see what you mean. Interesting thought
  • #582
  • Dec 1, 2014 5:39pm Dec 1, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} Fundamentals is tricky.........
Nice summary IMHO.

Jarratt Davis looks at five key measures: employment, growth, production, inflation, geopolitical. Then he narrows it down to the one (or occasionally two) that the CB is focused on, and watches relevant economic indicators, and any important dialog about that measure, and how it's likely to affect (predominantly) interest rates. At least that's assuming I understand him correctly.
  • #583
  • Dec 1, 2014 5:50pm Dec 1, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Nice summary IMHO. Jarratt Davis looks at five key measures: employment, growth, production, inflation, geopolitical. Then he narrows it down to the one (or occasionally two) that the CB is focused on, and watches relevant economic indicators, and any important dialog about that measure, and how it's likely to affect (predominantly) interest rates. At least that's assuming I understand him correctly.
I don't know if you remember, but you put me onto to Jarratt Davis in the first place. I think he puts a bit too much focus on central bank actions, but he turned on a light bulb in my head.

I remain grateful for your suggestion.
  • #584
  • Edited 4:27am Dec 2, 2014 4:11am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting AllanS
{quote} A generous offer, Stu, but one I'll decline. I demo-traded 50k to 700k earlier this year. Then, using precisely the same strategy, I blew the account. This will be the unhappy experience of every trader in this market. I believe, in principle, that small-time traders cannot succeed in the long run, no more than small-time chess players can beat a Grand Master. Extensive testing over many years has confirmed this belief. Dozens of strategies work brilliantly before failing. Truth is, brokers are the casino and we are the punters. We win a...

Allan, since you have taken so much interest here, I am inclined to know that, if not this, then whats the best approach for small traders in this market.......?????
  • #585
  • Dec 2, 2014 4:24am Dec 2, 2014 4:24am
Further to the crude trade given earlier..........today again we have a nice entry.........short at 68.27 in my mt4....well lets see.......trade to be managed fez style......
  • #586
  • Dec 3, 2014 7:38pm Dec 3, 2014 7:38pm
So I've still been watching Spyder's Tsunami PI EA, and it's clear that the entry strategy is important. I'm thinking about testing this with Aroon, combined with a short duration limit order. My EA coding skills aren't the greatest though...
  • #587
  • Dec 3, 2014 10:58pm Dec 3, 2014 10:58pm
Forward testing for four trade days and already in decent profit of 10%. The balance curve looks terrible as expected. Look at the floating P/L and equity. Using macd EA on 1M. 37% were break even, 57% hit the SL, Only 6% went into floating profit.
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  • #588
  • Edited Dec 4, 2014 1:16pm Dec 3, 2014 11:25pm | Edited Dec 4, 2014 1:16pm
The trend following EAs here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=448350) were developed by my trading/programming buddy mim2005. They don’t specifically follow the millpede approach, most noticeably the 'participation' concept, but they do stack entries and look to cash in on long term (daily/weekly/monthly) moves by using a wide trailing SL. Mim2005 explains their operation in the previous link, while FWIW I gave my views here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6948673#post6948673) and here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6982777#post6982777).

I realize that these are merely backtest results, with all of the associated caveats and limitations. Mim2005 had the EAs running on a small live account back in late 2013, but then shut them down (they were 3%–4% in profit at the time) and decided to move his focus elsewhere. I expect that they would have fared very well recently, since EU has been downtrending strongly since early May.

I’m not sure how relevant this post is to the millipede thread topic, but I believe it does illustrate that the ‘infinite yield (http://infiniteyield.com/)’ concept can work, especially if one chooses pair(s) where the currencies involved are frequently negatively correlated. I also believe that infinite yield can be improved further if one chooses currently strong-trending pairs (I use strength meters — here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158) and here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=513671), to pair strong against weak currencies), and also follow economic shifts (MCRotter’s earlier post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7911395#post7911395) is a good summary IMHO). This is in keeping with Peter Crowns' comments about trading the 'hot hand (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5863957#post5863957)'. The goal being to find multiple low risk entries (some very good free info in this thread (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=420159)) to build positions, and then let the surviving entries ride the trends as the macroeconomics play themselves out. It’s the most promising strategy, at least in terms of risk-adjusted-return, that I’m currently aware of — if you have the extreme patience and discipline that's needed to trade it.
  • #589
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:10pm Dec 4, 2014 12:10pm
Hi fezmar, thank you very much for this nice thread. About your JForex EA to put your positions to breakeven, can you share it with us, please?
Thanks
  • #590
  • Dec 5, 2014 3:32pm Dec 5, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Nice summary IMHO. Jarratt Davis looks at five key measures: employment, growth, production, inflation, geopolitical. Then he narrows it down to the one (or occasionally two) that the CB is focused on, and watches relevant economic indicators, and any important dialog about that measure, and how it's likely to affect (predominantly) interest rates. At least that's assuming I understand him correctly.

I subscribe to Jarratt Davis as well. He defines what are some of the more important fundamental events of the week and then suggests confluence zones to watch for. Very helpful, well thought out, and expressed in a way that anyone can understand.
  • #591
  • Dec 7, 2014 12:15pm Dec 7, 2014 12:15pm
Hi Fez. do you still have time. I just need to know which broker you trade. Im a trader from towerhill prop firm and i want to trade forex for my account as well. I have a method which i am comfortable with and tested on mt4, jforex and we have almost same style of trading with my own twist. I have long term trades and scalping trades. I also hedge winning position riding the waves both up and down. I usually hedge during the start of retracement and adding more to the trend as the retracement ends. I am confident on my timing skills and this greatly enhance the style of trading similar to yours for my long term trades even though this is the first time i know you, i can see we have some similarities on your methods specially for high RR trades(i employ short and long term trades). I also trade the trend for the day for my short term portfolio but yours is less stressful and doesn't require to be glued to the monitor all the time. I have demo the forex mt4 but i know mt4 is a crap (limit orders are not really limits). I just wanted to trade real brokers. what i have in mind is dukascopy, armada, lmax, excelmarkets, and other broker who offers currenex, fxall and hotspot although the latter require high minimum deposits.


Im not asking for any method or techniques. Im just inquiring for a good broker. I just want to know which broker you trade so i can investigate and add it to my list for elimination. Have no live account for forex but have live account for equity US.


I have traded forex demo only and i find forex specially eurusd which is pretty much trending(now its down trend). The reason i ask about forex is the ability to hedge which is absent in equity trading.

I hope they have some platform similar to takion which is good execution platform.
  • #592
  • Dec 8, 2014 1:33am Dec 8, 2014 1:33am
Quoting junixsy5219
Hi Fez. do you still have time. I just need to know which broker you trade. Im a trader from towerhill prop firm and i want to trade forex for my account as well. I have a method which i am comfortable with and tested on mt4, jforex and we have almost same style of trading with my own twist. I have long term trades and scalping trades. I also hedge winning position riding the waves both up and down. I usually hedge during the start of retracement and adding more to the trend as the retracement ends. I am confident on my timing skills and this greatly...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7895487&highlight=dukascopy#post7895487
Sometimes reading thread helps

Artem
Let's go with the flow
  • #593
  • Dec 8, 2014 2:49am Dec 8, 2014 2:49am
Quoting hanover
The trend following EAs here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=448350) were developed by my trading/programming buddy mim2005. They don’t specifically follow the millpede approach, most noticeably the 'participation' concept, but they do stack entries and look to cash in on long term (daily/weekly/monthly) moves by using a wide trailing SL. Mim2005 explains their operation in the previous link, while FWIW I gave my views here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6948673#post6948673) and here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6982777#post6982777)....

Newbies (and old losers - like me!) you'd be well advised to take note of this post....it summarises how to profit at this game. Not how to be greedy, but how to make a PROFIT.
  • #594
  • Dec 8, 2014 4:05am Dec 8, 2014 4:05am
Quoting fezmar
{quote} Patience my dear friend. Due to time constraints I can't post a long post more than perhaps once a day at max, so I'm breaking it down. Also I think it will help in the way that this is a rather alien approach to most and so getting it in bitesize pieces rather than a wall of text with opportunities for asking questions will allow them to get a better grip of the nature of the way this works, and I feel it would highlight better the fact that this isn't an entry when this crosses that exit when this turns red type of approach, but rather...
Hi,Fez,Why don't you use the high win rate and money management strategies to make money?
  • #595
  • Dec 8, 2014 8:58am Dec 8, 2014 8:58am
Quoting fxjennifer
{quote} Hi,Fez,Why don't you use the high win rate and money management strategies to make money?


well how do u get high win rate and which money management strategies are you talking of my dear friend......??
  • #596
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:38am Dec 9, 2014 2:38am
can somebody post the breakeven java for jforex. breakeven java from dukascopy is different it will place order. what i want is just to monitor existing orders then set breakeven if certain pips is achieve
  • #597
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:40am Dec 9, 2014 2:40am
Quoting artem_t
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7895487&highlight=dukascopy#post7895487 Sometimes reading thread helps Artem

Thanks. I was not able to read all post . was busy preparing for the us open.
  • #598
  • Dec 9, 2014 2:42am Dec 9, 2014 2:42am
Quoting junixsy5219
can somebody post the breakeven java for jforex. breakeven java from dukascopy is different it will place order. what i want is just to monitor existing orders then set breakeven if certain pips is achieve
You have a strategy for JForex named "Breakeven & SL". You can find it in the Jstore. It is developped by Dukascopy and it is free.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #599
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:34am Dec 11, 2014 6:34am
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} Fundamentals is tricky. A guy...Once I have my myfxbook running, and consistently profitable then I will start feeling good
I agree, fundamentals are key if you can find a way to dissect and sort out information in a categorical and repeatable way (I too have been following Jarratt Davis but I also look at cot data). However, in the end it is only safe to get into the market once institutions have enough liquidity to get in and align themselves with changes in fundamentals. Placing large positions take time and the market will repeatedly return, and even get pushed back down, into areas where institutions have left over orders that did not trigger the first time, or where they decide they can get a good price with enough liquidity to engage more positions. Identifying areas on the chart of probable high liquidity, or areas where orders are likely to be sitting can be used to define and limit initial risk. So, chart patterns are merely a tool to enter with the fundamentals. But used without fundamentals and formed without some underlying logic and understanding of institutional participation, chart patterns are useless.
  • #600
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:54am Dec 11, 2014 6:54am
"
Quoting Porkpie
{quote} I agree, fundamentals are key if you can find a way to dissect and sort out information in a categorical and repeatable way (I too have been following Jarratt Davis but I also look at cot data). However, in the end it is only safe to get into the market once institutions have enough liquidity to get in and align themselves with changes in fundamentals. Placing large positions take time and the market will repeatedly return, and even get pushed back down, into areas where institutions have left over orders that did not trigger the first time,...
"


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