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  • #261
  • Nov 28, 2014 4:28am Nov 28, 2014 4:28am
Quoting whackdiddy
Short placed at 49.7478 with tp 49.1
manually closed at 49.5319

We are having a nice little standoff at the moment..
Still expecting a drop before another bull run, but closed in case market open goes against my charts.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #262
  • Nov 28, 2014 5:09am Nov 28, 2014 5:09am
Still expecting the drop to 49.25 or 49.10 in the next hour at which point I may place a heavy long.

Signing off for now.. happy trading guys.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #263
  • Edited 12:13pm Nov 28, 2014 12:09pm | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} I would wait until the high 49.9 or 50 handle before you short. As Zebra has said, this pair is a huge margin eater but the swap is amazing if you can hold the margin. With oil dropping like it is we may well hit the 51 handle, I thought we were going to see a bit more of a drop but it is playing out nicely. Long @ 47.17870 tp set loose at 51 but watching in case manual intervention. I would expect (hunch only) the RCB (Russian Central Bank) to play a small hand on Monday to drive back around the 47 handle, but they are much smarter than...
In my opinion, they will not do nothing as it heads to 54? (that's just above the top line on my fibonacci pivot point indicator). But I do wonder how they can afford to keep intervening, especially now that they are profiting less and will be profiting less for the foreseeable future, from oil. I'm probably not the only one wondering about this. But: they will act; and are using thoughts like mine in their calculations.

edit: change below to above, 1st sentence
  • #264
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:35am Dec 1, 2014 9:35am
15% drop last week and today is the biggest single day drop since 1998; this thing's getting decimated! Added small positions at 51.70, 52.30 and 53.10. Closed the 52.30 and 53.10 positions at 51.80; will slowly reload at new highs in 54, 55 if need be.

Anyone else playing this currently? Latest CNBC article is calling for 53-55 range if oil stays this low. Possible central bank intervention has occurred already, no comment on their part though.
  • #265
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:11pm Dec 1, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting thadakman
15% drop last week and today is the biggest single day drop since 1998; this thing's getting decimated! Added small positions at 51.70, 52.30 and 53.10. Closed the 52.30 and 53.10 positions at 51.80; will slowly reload at new highs in 54, 55 if need be. Anyone else playing this currently? Latest CNBC article is calling for 53-55 range if oil stays this low. Possible central bank intervention has occurred already, no comment on their part though.
Wow. Huge drop. But we've seen this before (kind of; rate hike), only to have buyers of the pair wade back in. I'm going to wait until oil prices stablize. I thought they would at this point at around 75, but noooo.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #266
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:00am Dec 2, 2014 1:00am

  1. Oil is coming back up, will drop a small amount but then bounce.
  2. Gold and silver are also starting to correct, silver had a big bull move.
  3. S&P 500 is dropping
  4. Black Friday sales are lower than expected (Christmas and sales period should strengthen USD, then deep winter again, what happened last winter?)
  5. Fed is starting it's campaign on concerns about raising interest rates and 'what we should have done, could have done spin' basically starting their excuse campaign for when it all hits the fan.
  6. UK - yes I know not really related but could cause a snowball affect, housing bubble is well and truly back with very grave concerns.

I think a big change is coming very soon, hate to sound like a youtube muppet and the end of the US dollar blah blah.. but for me something is not right with the current setup.

Okay so that is the fundamentals for me..

The technicals

Currently on the H1, ichi looks like it is about to near bottom (touching strong support), touching a bull cloud. So we should bounce back to 52.25 handle in the next 4 - 6 hours.

A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #267
  • Dec 2, 2014 4:44am Dec 2, 2014 4:44am
Russia just confirmed recession for 2015... BUY USD/RUB!!
  • #268
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:20am Dec 2, 2014 6:20am
new high for today ?
  • #269
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:43am Dec 2, 2014 6:43am
Quoting surfeur
new high for today ?
yes maybe 550000
  • #270
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:57am Dec 2, 2014 6:57am
What are they going to do about this? I reach the limit of my understanding - capital controls are mentioned. Yet they want to free float the currency. I guess the two are mutually exclusive.

Quoting poseikwame
{quote} yes maybe 550000
  • #271
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:19am Dec 2, 2014 7:19am
Quoting Greenstar
What are they going to do about this? I reach the limit of my understanding - capital controls are mentioned. Yet they want to free float the currency. I guess the two are mutually exclusive. {quote}
to be very honest I wish i knew what they are going to do... The usd lookingg very strong from all fundamentals... oil is on the wrong side plus they owe alot of money!! it's crazy!! i just thiink theres a global bubble about to burst again!!
  • #272
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:37am Dec 2, 2014 7:37am
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} to be very honest I wish i knew what they are going to do... The usd lookingg very strong from all fundamentals... oil is on the wrong side plus they owe alot of money!! it's crazy!! i just thiink theres a global bubble about to burst again!!
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #273
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:49am Dec 2, 2014 7:49am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote}
you see 550000 as a new HH today??
  • #274
  • Dec 3, 2014 1:10am Dec 3, 2014 1:10am
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} you see 550000 as a new HH today??
It is all good champ, I am playing long and short on this pair (OZ and hedging..). Holding shorts for long term investment (years) and making tidy profit on longs.

But yes good call..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #275
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:23am Dec 3, 2014 4:23am
Gonna be really hard to catch the exact top on this one. But my feeling is that we are nearing that point. Somewhere around this 55 level .. could certainly go higher though.

Long term (5-10years) I think short USD/RUB at these 53-55 levels will turn out to be a massive winner.


IMO it's completely illogical to see the Ruble sell off to these levels. The long term fundamentals will not allow this to last much longer.
  • #276
  • Dec 3, 2014 6:02am Dec 3, 2014 6:02am
Quoting Ck87
Gonna be really hard to catch the exact top on this one. But my feeling is that we are nearing that point. Somewhere around this 55 level .. could certainly go higher though. Long term (5-10years) I think short USD/RUB at these 53-55 levels will turn out to be a massive winner. IMO it's completely illogical to see the Ruble sell off to these levels. The long term fundamentals will not allow this to last much longer.

Almost word for word my thoughts..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #277
  • Dec 3, 2014 9:08am Dec 3, 2014 9:08am
well if oil isn;t looking good and the figures coming out from RU isn't great which is leading them into recession then I think this can hit 60
  • #278
  • Dec 3, 2014 9:34am Dec 3, 2014 9:34am
Hi All,

I'm a long time reader and haven't posted here yet. I rarely post in forex forums because of what I perceive as a kind of mass delusion among 99.9% of forex traders. (I actually find it depressing and perplexing.) The delusion is the belief that you need to get in and out, in and out, in and out.

May I gently ask: Who here can read a daily chart? A weekly chart? If so, why are you pleased that you got in at 38.400 and got out at 38.600? In at 41 and out at 42.230? Who here bought the usd/rub pair back in September and held their position until now? If not, why not? The daily and weekly charts are about as perfect as you can get if you are looking for a trend. Get your heads out of the 1,5,15, and 30 minute charts. Instead of making 100's of dollars you could have just made several hundreds of thousands of dollars. (Yes, I use very generous stop loss levels after the *initial move up. I sleep well at night and the markets pour cash into my accounts.)

Also, regarding the Ruble topping out at 55 or 60: Remember the late 1990's? 5000 to 5600 rubles to the dollar? Enough said.
  • #279
  • Dec 3, 2014 9:43am Dec 3, 2014 9:43am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} Almost word for word my thoughts..
My thoughts exactly as well.

The thing is, it is hard to determine where the high will be ... . Danske Bank has said 51 for 2015. And, although this is -- at the moment -- kind of joke, given the move up from 39 to 50+ makes 63 seem shockingly possible. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...sian-joke.html

But, like I said at the beginning of October (when it was 39-ish), this could be a fantastic short play with patient entries and a strong stomach to carry it through the gyrations.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #280
  • Dec 3, 2014 11:03pm Dec 3, 2014 11:03pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30322198
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