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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,721
  • Dec 1, 2014 10:09pm Dec 1, 2014 10:09pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Definitely another interpretation, but I feel the horizontal line better fits with the previous attempts to break through. As always though, time will tell...
I think otherwise but it's ok, I Like hearing different opinions as I am not 100% correct. I think JPY cold strengthen if other rating agencies go along with Moody''s.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #16,722
  • Edited 10:24pm Dec 1, 2014 10:10pm | Edited 10:24pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} Ok, just trying to help. Good luck with the trade

I suspect that GU will finish it off to a new high. My view is that UJ may have finished or is going into some longer term triangle/consolidation. A close under 118 would support such a view. Otherwise, UJ still has the possibility of getting to at least 119.6

Uj staying asleep and GU running up into 1.585 or so would have GJ at over 186.5 and maybe 187.5. Both moving up takes us well over 187.5, and maybe making 189.5
  • #16,723
  • Dec 1, 2014 10:22pm Dec 1, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I suspect that GU will finish it off to a new high. My view is that UJ may have finished or is going into some longer term triangle/consolidation. A close under 118 would support such a view. Uj staying asleep and GU running up into 1.585 or so would have GJ at over 186.5 and maybe 187.5
We have different views then. I reckon JPY will continue to strengthen, most notably against the US Dollar. GBPJPY is likely to follow suit but the question how many pips it would shed and this I do not know. There are too many reasons why JPY should continue strengthening.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #16,724
  • Dec 1, 2014 10:34pm Dec 1, 2014 10:34pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} We have different views then. I reckon JPY will continue to strengthen, most notably against the US Dollar. GBPJPY is likely to follow suit but the question how many pips it would shed and this I do not know. There are too many reasons why JPY should continue strengthening.
We will see. UJ back over 118.7 would have it back up - again. And by the way, I am not a UJ true believer like many of the cargo cultists elsewhere. I would love nothing more than to see it dump heavily.
  • #16,725
  • Dec 2, 2014 7:21am Dec 2, 2014 7:21am
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, I've mostly been trading USD/JPY lately because it's been an absolute no-brainer trade. But it's been stagnating a bit lately so I decided to venture back to my one true love, geppy :-) I went long last night at 185.55 and hoping to see at least a couple hundred pips from her. My main basis for going long was general JPY weakness, an over sold GBP, and the ascending triangle on the 1h chart where we've been bouncing nicely off some main moving averages: {image}
Update: I've just woken up and see we've broken out of our ascending triangle last night and even tested the previous horizontal resistance as support. I've just added a small bit at 186.60

Based on this triangle break, a good initial target would be 188 considering the widest part of the triangle measures about 200 pips (~184 to ~186). The breakout could easily give us 200 pips from the 186 zone. I'll be reevaluating at that point. Hope everyone is doing well.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2014-12-02 05.18.13.png Size: 88 KB
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  • #16,726
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:31am Dec 2, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Bring on the motivational stuff. Nice pump at the gym today. Almost laughing about the 40 % loss of my Poker BR on worst Tilt in my life at the weekend, because still enough $ remaining to come back ... So now back at DP ... daily close will be interesting. For now fumbling at 20ish, they make it interesting. Will be up for Draghi speech tomorrow, gn8.
As I said, recovered the complete loss plus some extra money gained
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,727
  • Dec 2, 2014 10:33am Dec 2, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Update: I've just woken up and see we've broken out of our ascending triangle last night and even tested the previous horizontal resistance as support. I've just added a small bit at 186.60 Based on this triangle break, a good initial target would be 188 considering the widest part of the triangle measures about 200 pips (~184 to ~186). The breakout could easily give us 200 pips from the 186 zone. I'll be reevaluating at that point. Hope everyone is doing well. {image}
Oh, Geppy is back! Every few months the return happens Do not make too much money now, so you will stay longer this time haha
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,728
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:24am Dec 2, 2014 11:24am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Oh, Geppy is back! Every few months the return happens Do not make too much money now, so you will stay longer this time haha
lol, hi Hickson. Thanks for the welcome back.

I used to only trade GBP/JPY, but now I move around to where I see the best opportunities.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,729
  • Dec 2, 2014 11:53am Dec 2, 2014 11:53am
Now that I'm at the office (and on my big monitor), I've taken a deeper look at the 4h chart. The uptrend, consolidation, and breakout is quite evident here. However, I thought it would be interesting to run a fib extension on the previous run up and down to the bottom of the consolidation range.

The most interesting aspect of this is the horizontal resistance that should now be support aligns quite well with the 38.2% fib extension line. This strengthens this zone as potential support.

I usually use fib extensions to map out target zones with the 100% fib extension level. You can see it on this chart, but the 100% extension comes in at 188.92 -- that could be a good initial target for this trade for those that are following along.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2014-12-02 09.50.19.png Size: 186 KB
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  • #16,730
  • Edited 10:38pm Dec 2, 2014 7:54pm | Edited 10:38pm
186.8 and .9 are good resistances. Next up over 187 would be 187.2/3 and maybe 187.5. These numbers have been highlighted here for weeks.

Over about 187.7/9 and definitely 188 it's probably broken up to wherever??
  • #16,731
  • Dec 3, 2014 2:18am Dec 3, 2014 2:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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looks like a nice hedge line ,,drop the losing trade ???
  • #16,732
  • Dec 3, 2014 3:24am Dec 3, 2014 3:24am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,733
  • Dec 3, 2014 3:39am Dec 3, 2014 3:39am
Quoting Dano12
{image}
The implication of the rising wedge is meant to be bearish. But sometimes rising wedges are just a means to get around resistance and are then bullish. Hence my earlier comment that if it breaks over 187.5/188 it gets away. A stop before those points sees at least 183 revisited and maybe lower.
  • #16,734
  • Dec 3, 2014 3:53am Dec 3, 2014 3:53am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} The implication of the rising wedge is meant to be bearish. But sometimes rising wedges are just a means to get around resistance and are then bullish. Hence my earlier comment that if it breaks over 187.5/188 it gets away. A stop before those points sees at least 183 revisited and maybe lower.
yes, but look at the USD JPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,735
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:01am Dec 3, 2014 4:01am
Quoting Dano12
{quote} yes, but look at the USD JPY {image}
I'm aware of that, but it shows little sign of falling back. Not wanting to sound like I'm preaching, but with any rising wedge you have to draw a line and accept that beyond a certain place it really wasn't a rising wedge - just something that looked like it. For example, it UJ get to 120.x and then accelerates (because it broke the resistance) then GJ would follow suit.

But I have no idea - like anyone - and will be VERY careful past 187.
  • #16,736
  • Dec 3, 2014 4:03am Dec 3, 2014 4:03am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post7915921 any body take the trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,737
  • Dec 3, 2014 8:37am Dec 3, 2014 8:37am
Ah yes, I love days like these
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,738
  • Dec 3, 2014 8:45am Dec 3, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Mpt
186.8 and .9 are good resistances. Next up over 187 would be 187.2/3 and maybe 187.5. These numbers have been highlighted here for weeks. Over about 187.7/9 and definitely 188 it's probably broken up to wherever??

well personally i will close everything at 190.00. But 195-197 might be possible next year, if trend keeps.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_D_031214.png Size: 63 KB
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #16,739
  • Dec 3, 2014 8:58am Dec 3, 2014 8:58am
It looks like Geppys calls on price action were spot on, congratulations.
I like this pair but trading them has been a roller coaster for me.
I would assume smaller contracts and longer trades, as mentioned, might
be the best way to trade it.
  • #16,740
  • Dec 3, 2014 9:04am Dec 3, 2014 9:04am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} well personally i will close everything at 190.00. But 195-197 might be possible next year, if trend keeps. {image}

Well, rightly or wrongly I took profit at 187.7

Can always get back in it holds over here
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