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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #1,601
  • Nov 28, 2014 12:13pm Nov 28, 2014 12:13pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Has been YEARS since I posted here in FF.......
Hey DS,
Great to see that you're still around and trading well.
Totally agree with you about low risk entries and high RR trades.
All the best,
DL
  • #1,602
  • Nov 29, 2014 9:19am Nov 29, 2014 9:19am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Hey DS, Great to see that you're still around and trading well. Totally agree with you about low risk entries and high RR trades. All the best, DL
Thanks Han (DL)
Good to see you still around as well. Thanks for the shout out.
  • #1,603
  • Nov 29, 2014 2:37pm Nov 29, 2014 2:37pm
This could be a once in a decade type trade. I know that all the fortune tellers are predicting the YEN to continue to weaken, but there "should" be a retracement somewhere...right??? IF there is one, these areas may be a good start. We have not seen these supply areas since 2007. Chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily looking at 2007 supply.png Size: 85 KB
  • #1,604
  • Nov 29, 2014 2:39pm Nov 29, 2014 2:39pm
Awesome thread and free vids.
Thanks.

Hey Daniel, where you be?
  • #1,605
  • Nov 30, 2014 12:11am Nov 30, 2014 12:11am
Quoting 4X4EVER
This could be a once in a decade type trade. I know that all the fortune tellers are predicting the YEN to continue to weaken, but there "should" be a retracement somewhere...right??? IF there is one, these areas may be a good start. We have not seen these supply areas since 2007. Chart below. {image}
Hi 4X4,

Good point. I to am looking at these levels and waiting for PA. Truth be told, I am a little cautious now because the pockets of demand on this swing up seem to be keeping price above the DPs of the monthly flags of supply. There is a FTR on the monthly that recently failed, maybe because price is still coming from a cap from all time lows with strength. However we could see some reactions and good ops on the lower TF's in these supply DP's. I also agree that we should see a nice retracement soon, therefore I will also await PA on LTFs rather than any touch trade. Good luck

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FFRTM301114.jpg Size: 123 KB
Bye Bye FF
  • #1,606
  • Nov 30, 2014 2:33am Nov 30, 2014 2:33am
Quoting 4X4EVER
This could be a once in a decade type trade. I know that all the fortune tellers are predicting the YEN to continue to weaken, but there "should" be a retracement somewhere...right??? IF there is one, these areas may be a good start. We have not seen these supply areas since 2007. Chart below. {image}

HI 4X4,
just want to ask what You will do,
will You take Sell order when price will reach 119, or You will wait for confirmation and only then will take the trades?
Couse when I look at UJ chart, price touched that first zone (119) You have marked already.
h
  • #1,607
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:20am Nov 30, 2014 7:20am
Quoting ryy
{quote} HI 4X4, just want to ask what You will do, will You take Sell order when price will reach 119, or You will wait for confirmation and only then will take the trades? Couse when I look at UJ chart, price touched that first zone (119) You have marked already.
Yes it did touch that area, but the supply zone on the monthly is larger up to 124.00 so to answer your question, yes I will wait on confirmation to enter. I realize the fundamentals are very much in favor of the weak YEN, however, supply is present and I must interpret what I see. 500 pips is a pretty large zone, but watching the lower time frames I am looking to let price tell me the story. Keep in mind, when the GBPUSD was at 173.00 earlier this year (chart below), the fundamentals were still favoring the pound, yet it hit fresh supply on longer TF's and you see where it now.

Please understand I am not predicting anything, I am just aware where we are.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd daily.png Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu daily at supply.png Size: 71 KB
  • #1,608
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:22am Nov 30, 2014 7:22am
Quoting Mightyzoner
Awesome thread and free vids. Thanks. Hey Daniel, where you be?
I'm right here! where U B????
  • #1,609
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:28am Nov 30, 2014 9:28am
Quoting 4X4EVER
{quote} Yes it did touch that area, but the supply zone on the monthly is larger up to 124.00 so to answer your question, yes I will wait on confirmation to enter. I realize the fundamentals are very much in favor of the weak YEN, however, supply is present and I must interpret what I see. 500 pips is a pretty large zone, but watching the lower time frames I am looking to let price tell me the story. Keep in mind, when the GBPUSD was at 173.00 earlier this year (chart below), the fundamentals were still favoring the pound, yet it hit fresh supply...

Sorry for ignorance, but why are You denying the spike of the supply zone ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd daily.png Size: 76 KB
h
  • #1,610
  • Nov 30, 2014 1:39pm Nov 30, 2014 1:39pm
I guess I could have, but would have had to go down to the 4 hr or lower to confirm, and that would have been a hassle and not really my point, which brings me back to the USDJPY being at a serious long term supply ZONE. My entire point was that the USDJPY is something I am watching for a possible bearish move down after confirmation and I was merely showing how even when the GBPUSD was considered fundamentally strong, we reversed at supply and faked out alot of folks. I just wonder if we are getting near that with the USDJPY and time will only tell. Hope this made sense.
  • #1,611
  • Nov 30, 2014 2:19pm Nov 30, 2014 2:19pm
Well I think we are going to see a high leg up in all USD pairs until 2015 with the rate Gold and Oil is dropping... also lets not forget japan is in recession... even with their voting coming up shortly... 120 is a respected zone to hit soon... which could happy this week!!
  • #1,612
  • Dec 1, 2014 6:48am Dec 1, 2014 6:48am
Needed to fill up the money bucket again, so dipped it in the money river
Took half off
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-01_12-36-49.jpg Size: 275 KB


We can spend all day every day piling money up on the bank of the river, or we can live our lives, and just dip our bucket in whenever it gets low
  • #1,613
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:12am Dec 1, 2014 7:12am
Very nice, IF. We all have our own way of seeing the market, but I don't see exactly what the setup is for that trade. Zooming out shows there was some supply up there from early November, but what got you so close to the very pip of the turn?
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #1,614
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:22am Dec 1, 2014 7:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-01_13-19-15.jpg Size: 294 KB

There was a clean set of orders there; enough to SAS from
  • #1,615
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:29am Dec 1, 2014 7:29am
Have a look at price as it approached my sell.
Think of the hope caused before it, and then the pain.
Then, with the knowledge of the set of orders there, you'll see why I sold.
The PA to hold it came soon after
  • #1,616
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:56am Dec 1, 2014 7:56am
Quoting Ifmyante
Have a look at price as it approached my sell. Think of the hope caused before it, and then the pain. Then, with the knowledge of the set of orders there, you'll see why I sold. The PA to hold it came soon after
Excuse my brain damage (I blame the boxing), but I don't see where you mean the clean orders are. Are you talking about the zone back on November 5th? I only ask, because that zone doesn't look all that clean to me.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #1,617
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:57am Dec 1, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Ifmyante
..
Hi Iam watching this thread closely but cant find what SAS and MPL mean. Thank you. T
  • #1,618
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:41am Dec 1, 2014 8:41am
Quoting By_Tor2114
{quote} Excuse my brain damage (I blame the boxing), but I don't see where you mean the clean orders are. Are you talking about the zone back on November 5th? I only ask, because that zone doesn't look all that clean to me.
Yup!
There were clean orders, as marked on the chart as MPL of first engulf
  • #1,619
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:43am Dec 1, 2014 8:43am
Quoting troklo
{quote} Hi Iam watching this thread closely but cant find what SAS and MPL mean. Thank you. T
MPL is the Maximum Pain Level.
SAS is Scalp and See

The former you'll find lots of information about in RTM. The latter is more for the Academy, but you should still find it on the free site someplace
  • #1,620
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:55am Dec 1, 2014 8:55am
I only just realised the chart you posted was on the November 5th zone. I originally thought it was of you entry from the early hours!..... Again, I blame the boxing.

With the above stated, I still don't see the logic behind the entry, but everyone sees the market in their own way. I never understood Naseem Hamed's approach to boxing, but that didn't stop him from being world champion for half a decade!
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
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