ForexNews.com - Trading Ideas

Top Trade Idea For December 1st, 2014 – USD/NOK


By Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com


A few weeks ago, we wrote an article recommending a trade to buy USD/NOK (Norwegian Krone) soon after it had fallen from 6.93 to 6.71 (see http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/1...th-2014-usdnok). At the time, USD/NOK was around 6.75 and our long trade targeted 6.96 (Friday’s close was above 7.00). We feel there’s a little more upside to USD/NOK and feel we’re overdue a significant pullback, so this article will recommend another USD/NOK long trade. If this trade triggers, it should take much less time to complete than the previous trade targeting 6.96.


Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 2nd, 2014 – AUD/JPY


By Gregor Horvat of Forex Markets


Today, we will take a look at AUDJPY, which has been in nice and strong uptrend for the past few weeks. But what I spotted lately is a five wave decline from the high. This is always very significant, and important information as it tells me that something is changing. So even if trend has turned bearish for just a short-period of time, I see room for more weakness as every correction is stricture by minimum three legs. Well, notice that on hourly chart there is a one completed leg down that has unfolded in five waves. And then price moved sideways, which I see it as a corrective pause within on going new weakness. So I suspect that market will break to a new low. Based on minimum expectations we are looking through 99.88, so there is opportunity on the short side, maybe with a solid risk/reward set-up if market will retest 11.30/101.60 area once again.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 5th, 2014 – GBP/USD

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets


Along with inflation, the US jobs number is the key driver of Fed monetary policy. This of course makes the jobs number a key driver for $US exchange rates. Heading into the number, a common technique for chart based traders is to look for situations that might trigger a trade setup if the jobs number misses expectations by a big enough margin to change market perceptions about Fed policy.




Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 8th, 2014 – USD/NOK


By Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com



Last week’s USD/NOK long trade idea succeeded (see http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/1...st-2014-usdnok) making it the second time in a recent weeks we’d successfully traded USD/NOK (and as suggested last week, it would be quicker to complete than the first USD/NOK setup). The oil price fall remains the key topic of conversation so given its strong inverse correlation to USD/NOK, we’re going to recommend a third USD/NOK trade idea in recent weeks.



Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 10th, 2014 – AUD/NZD


By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com


The weaker inflation figures released from China overnight have been shrugged off by both the AUD and NZD. Investors are perhaps now fully anticipating some more stimulatory action from the PBOC, which would thus be good news for the Australian and New Zealand economies (with China being their largest trading partner). Anyway, I am looking at the AUD/NZD today for three reasons today. Firstly, there is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting at 20:00 GMT tonight. Although the RBNZ is not expected to alter interest rates at this meeting, the central bank is more likely to talk down the Kiwi once again and deliver a more downbeat assessment of the economy due to the recent falls in commodity prices.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 12th, 2014 – $EURJPY

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

On Monday (Sunday night), the Tankan manufacturing indices for Q4 are released in Japan, along with Tokyo condominium sales. Weaker industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers this morning have expectations trending down, but the Yen has not fallen with them.This may mean that the weaker reads are already priced in.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 15th, 2014 – USD/CHF

By Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com

After three successful USD/NOK (Norwegian krone) long trades in recent weeks, it’s time to look elsewhere. In so doing, we’re not suggesting the oil price fall has ended. However, we have noticed price moving and closing below a four month uptrend line that may be worth some consideration. We’re talking about “the franc” (the Swiss franc). Given the demise of the franc in France , Belgium and Luxembourg (over ten years ago), it’s hoped that old fashioned references to “swissie” will also be phased out.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 16th, 2014 – EUR/GBP

By Gregor Horvat of www.ew-forecast.com

In today’s analysis we will take a look at EURGBP which is in downtrend actually since 2008 as showing on the weekly chart below. On that count we are looking at a double zigzag, now with wave C) in progress that can complete wave (Y) sometime next year. But notice that pair for now still holds 0.7750 support that should be taken out before we may look for any trend changes; from bearish to bullish mode. So from a trading perspective this can be interesting for short set-up as there is room for another 300-400 pips of decline.

http://fncdn.marcwaringventur.netdna...2014weekly.png

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 17th, 2014 – GBP/USD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

As strange as it sounds, the tone of trade for the rest of the week, and perhaps even the rest of the year, could hinge on just two words. The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and summary of economic projections at 2:00pm ET (19:00 GMT), followed by the press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 2:30pm ET (19:30 GMT), and traders will be hyper-focused on whether the central bank chooses to leave or remove the “considerable time” [before any interest rate hikes] pledge from its statement.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 19th, 2014 – USD/RUB

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets

It’s hard to go past the Russian rouble as the traders’ choice, given the extraordinary volatility. Extreme price movements demand traders respond with aggressive risk management, but the potential rewards for a good entry are attractive. Trading USD/RUB is not for the inexperienced. However, traders willing to adapt to the environment may set themselves for a very good start to the new trading year.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 29th, 2014 – USD/JPY

By Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com

As we head into 2015 there are many technical and fundamental factors suggesting stock markets are set to continue higher. The Nikkei 225 is quickly approaching the pre-credit crisis 2007 highs of 19,235, the S&P 500 has sailed to new highs, and the NASDAQ 100 is just below the March 2000 highs of 4816 with a last closing price of 4314. Quite often USDJPY direction is largely determined by where the major stock indexes are headed. Looking at the chart below we see over the last 4-months the S&P 500 is tracking almost perfectly with USDJPY, but with one exception; the SPY has made a higher-high whereas USD/JPY has made a lower-high. If the correlation is to continue on this divergence must be settled.



Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 30th, 2014 – USD/JPY


By Gregor Horvat of Forex Markets

In today’s article we will take a look at the most interesting pair of the past few days, which should be USDJPY that broke to new highs of the year, slightly above 114 so far, after the FED ended the QE program last week. At the same time we also see stocks at the highs with room for 2030/2040 on S&P500 which could help to support USDJPY even more as markets are in positive correlation.
On USDJPY 4h chart we see a nice move up from 105.18. This is a strong move as you can see so it must be an impulse. And we said several times in the past that impulses are five wave patterns, so when it comes to trading you need to ask yourself; »Is this bullish rally near completion with its five wave move, or is there room for more!?” Well, we cannot count five waves as completed yet from 105.18, which means that USDJPY will probably stay in bullish mode. The next thing is that we always want to stay with a trend when applying the wave count on the price chart. And we also want to trade in this direction.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For December 31st, 2014 – USD/CAD


By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

Last week, we highlighted the tight consolidation on USDCAD, discussing the potential for a bullish breakout above key resistance at 1.1670 in depth (see “USDCAD Bull Flagging Below 1.1670 – Big Breakout Still Possible This Year” for more). As it turns out, the pair just couldn’t muster enough strength to break above the critical barrier, and as we got to press today, the unit is pressing against the bottom of its symmetrical triangle pattern.
If rates manage to break below this floor, the first swing in 2015 may well be to the downside. As the chart below shows, rates are now in the middle of the established bullish channel, and a move down to support at the bottom of the channel (also the 50-day MA) would entail over 100 pips of downside from current prices. Interestingly, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes in near the bottom of that channel at 1.1485 and could prove to be a critical support level in January.


Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 2nd,2015 – USD/JPY

By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets



USD/JPY is likely on most traders’ radar for 2015. Expected dollar strength, and yen weakness, mean over the course of the year further gains for the pair are on the cards. However, markets rarely trade in a straight line, and the current price action may be pointing to another significant pullback before higher ground is attained.




Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 7th,2015 – EUR/NZD


By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com


Eurostat today confirmed what many had feared: the Eurozone has dipped into deflation. Undoubtedly, the -0.2% year-on-year reading on the headline CPI for the month of December had a lot to do with the collapse in oil prices, because if you exclude energy (and the volatile food, alcohol and tobacco prices) inflation was actually +0.8%, somewhat stronger than expected. Nevertheless, the ECB will now be very worried that the negative CPI reading will cause medium-term inflation expectations to fall further. This has therefore increased the probability that the ECB may act sooner rather than later and introduce a full scale QE stimulus programme, which would include purchases of sovereign debt, at its January meeting. QE is bad for the euro because it will effectively push interest rates below zero. Yield-seeking investors are thus expected to swap their euros for currencies where the central bank is in a hawkish mode, such as the US and New Zealand dollars.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 9th ,2015 – NZD/CAD


By Michael McCarthy of CMC Markets



Sometimes a technical set up comes along that ticks all the boxes.Bollinger Bands are among the most misused technical indicators. Traders consistently talk about uses of BBs that are so far removed from the mathematics underpinning BB theory that it’s frightening. The New Zealand / Canadian dollar cross is currently offering a lesson in the correct use of Bollinger Bands.


Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 14th ,2015 – AUD/USD

By Matthew Weller of FOREX.com

Today’s big trading story is undoubtedly the staggering drop in the price of copper. After today’s nearly 5% drop, the industrial metal is down over 14% already this year, building on the 16.6% plunge in 2014. This is particularly concerning because it is said that “Dr. Copper” has a PhD in global economics: due to its heavy usage in the industrial and manufacturing industries, copper tends to change course ahead of turning points in the global economy as a whole. (for more on the fundamental factors behind the copper drop, see my colleague Fawad Razaqzada’s note “Copper Slump Stokes Growth Fears, But Should We Really be Worried?” from earlier this morning).




Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 16th, 2015 – NZD/JPY

By Ric Spooner of CMC Markets


The Kiwi made a low against the Yen a couple of days ago at the same level it did in mid-December. Not only that, the declines into these lows both consist of 3 swings. This symmetry increases the possibility that the recent low will turn out to be the base of a rectangle pattern as I’ve pencilled in on the chart below.


Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 21st,2015 – GBP/USD

By Fawad Razaqzada of FOREX.com

The two dissenters at the Bank of England finally changed their minds, meaning the MPC voted unanimously for interest rates to remain on hold at the first policy meeting of 2015. Minutes from the MPC’s last meeting, held earlier this month, have revealed that Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both dropped their calls for a 25 basis point rise in interest rates, joining the other seven MPC members in voting to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Full Article and Trade Details Here

Top Trade Idea For January 27th, 2015 – AUD/USD

By Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast.com


On Aussie we have seen another leg down last week, beneath 0.8000. Based on the latest decline and extended structure from the past few months, we suspect that market will not bottom so soon. We are looking at an updated count now that shows we are in wave five of (3) so price will be expected to drop even lower after any corrective bounce. We are talking about blue wave (4) that can occur in February, but upside should then be limited around 0.8300, at former wave four.



Full Article and Trade Details Here