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AUD/USD

  • #87,921
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:45pm Nov 30, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I am not sure if there is a firm correlation between ASX and AUD. If I research now I guess the bad weather caused some damage and the fall in iron ore prices is another factor for the losses. I guess we will have to wait for the RBA to affirm they have intervened in the market.
AUD is generally a leading indicator for the ASX. Correlation of daily returns is about 0.75-0.9 (long time frame).

Not sure about the weather, but you're right, many forces pushing AUD (and ASX) down. Intervention on top of it all would be epic.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,922
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:01pm Nov 30, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting Panco
If, and only AUD will continue falling and you will be scratching your head for a rational explanation besides "it is just one of these times the strategy is not working" you will realize the RBA is intervening in the market. It's called stealth intervention, they learned the trick from New Zealand. It will be noticeable in AUDUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD.
The main reason for today's fall imo is because of the "no" vote concerning the Swiss and Gold yesterday.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #87,923
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:13pm Nov 30, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} The main reason for today's fall imo is because of the "no" vote concerning the Swiss and Gold yesterday.
How the referendum results affect AUD?
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,924
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:14pm Nov 30, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} AUD is generally a leading indicator for the ASX. Correlation of daily returns is about 0.75-0.9 (long time frame). Not sure about the weather, but you're right, many forces pushing AUD (and ASX) down. Intervention on top of it all would be epic.
I wasn't entirely sure there is a strong correlation but I will take your word for it and test it when I have spare time, thanks. I almost sure there is an intervention. The tone in the RBA statement was very similar to the RBNZ that have intervened.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,925
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:32pm Nov 30, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting KiwiOz
Time to play the gaps. Then back to the trends. {image} {image}
As I said before..(Time to play the gaps. Then back to the trends).. This should take us into US session Setting the Ozzie up for a fall tomorrow with the Monthly interest rate statement. Be no change there but it will kick it off back to follow the down trend to 0.75 & below eventually. Don't usually play retracements but this one is worth it. Gap & Daily pivot.. Nice target.
Money Makes Money
  • #87,926
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:35pm Nov 30, 2014 11:35pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I wasn't entirely sure there is a strong correlation but I will take your word for it and test it when I have spare time, thanks. I almost sure there is an intervention. The tone in the RBA statement was very similar to the RBNZ that have intervened.
Made a typing mistake lol.. b/w .075 and .9, but don't take my word for it. Was a quick and dirty job in excel and was was a 20 day rolling correlation.

I would be surprised if they have intervened, but will concede defeat if it turns out to be the case . RBNZ sold I think $500m back in September? It was good timing with the Euro and GBP tanking.

It's ironic really that the RBA's charter (and RBNZ's) is to provide for a "stable currency" when they're both wanting it down (and quickly).
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,927
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:38pm Nov 30, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} As I said before..(Time to play the gaps. Then back to the trends).. This should take us into US session Setting the Ozzie up for a fall tomorrow with the Monthly interest rate statement. Be no change there but it will kick it off back to follow the down trend to 0.75 & below eventually. Don't usually play retracements but this one is worth it. Gap & Daily pivot.. Nice target.


Will make for expensive holidays abroad for Aussies, but I agree.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,928
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:47pm Nov 30, 2014 11:47pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I wasn't entirely sure there is a strong correlation but I will take your word for it and test it when I have spare time, thanks. I almost sure there is an intervention. The tone in the RBA statement was very similar to the RBNZ that have intervened.
AUD and Gold have a strong correlation due to Aus being a strong supplier in the market. The Swiss referendum was an opportunity for the Gold market to pick up a bit but the vote was rejected and now the Gold market that is already bearish has lost further support.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #87,929
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:50pm Nov 30, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting Matts Micro
There is a strong chance the down trend will continue imo but there may be a st correction here perhaps to fill the gap. The TL is a 4hr channel from 14.11.14 16:00 (+2). (Fk this, IE crashes every time I try to post a pic. in FF. Using Chrome now....) {image}
H&S didn't confirm, looks like going lower but am sidelines atm.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #87,930
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:59pm Nov 30, 2014 11:59pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} AUD and Gold have a strong correlation due to Aus being a strong supplier in the market.
yep, around 6-7% of AUS exports is gold (fourth to iron, and crude is fifth).
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,931
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:14am Dec 1, 2014 12:14am
Gidday AUD/US

Any ideas on this pair


Was thinking 0.835

an add to my under water longs

The plan was to trade back up again to 0.89 or 0.91

But then some talk about going lower again
  • #87,932
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:27am Dec 1, 2014 12:27am
Gidday Traders

Looking to pend long,bottom must be getting close.http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...png?1417401920
  • #87,933
  • Dec 1, 2014 6:49am Dec 1, 2014 6:49am
IMHO, AUDUSD is likely to plunge towards 0.8430 re-test on the break of 0.8480; however, surpassing 0.8500 can cause the pair to rally towards 0.8560 in a quick up-move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #87,934
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:46am Dec 1, 2014 7:46am
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps06d1bd06.jpg

This will be a great level to watch. Its a support turn resistance line. Might be a good opportunity to load up shorts.
The overall trend is still bearish to the downside, furthermore, we have tested new lows today and all moving averages are pointing down.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #87,935
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:58am Dec 1, 2014 8:58am
Quoting Mr.C
Good day traders. AUD/USD on the menu for today. Sold the pair @ 0,8535. SL placed @ 0,8577. Wish everyone a great day!
Hello traders. Last week's Aussie has been wiped out with -40 pips. New week, new month and I'm back to business.

Wish you all good luck in December!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #87,936
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:11pm Dec 1, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting Ssm
{image} This will be a great level to watch. Its a support turn resistance line. Might be a good opportunity to load up shorts. The overall trend is still bearish to the downside, furthermore, we have tested new lows today and all moving averages are pointing down.
I like the analysis. Will anyone here be up for the RBA monetary policy?
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,937
  • Dec 1, 2014 12:23pm Dec 1, 2014 12:23pm
RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Forecast: 2.50%
Previous: 2.50%
We should probably not expect much from the RBA statement. The tone has been very neutral, so any direction dovish or hawkish should give the AUD a shake. The AUD has been a weakling of late, so there might be a chance for recovery if the RBA statement is simply non-dovish.

​I am taking small long position.
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #87,938
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:09pm Dec 1, 2014 1:09pm
Feeling longish as well.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #87,939
  • Dec 1, 2014 2:16pm Dec 1, 2014 2:16pm
rba is going to be big surprise
  • #87,940
  • Dec 1, 2014 2:44pm Dec 1, 2014 2:44pm
I'd buy here.
Timing may be bit off.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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