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AUD/USD

  • #87,901
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:20pm Nov 30, 2014 7:20pm
Patience children, Patience..Never rush a trade Make haste slowly
Money Makes Money
  • #87,902
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:20pm Nov 30, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} It tends to happen to everyone. Still, you realized some profit, which is great. Do you take partials or close the whole trade?
closed both
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #87,903
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:22pm Nov 30, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} closed both {image}
I am not trying to change your strategy but for me, closing partials or raising the stop above the entry seems to pay off in the long-run. Worth a thought.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,904
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:24pm Nov 30, 2014 7:24pm
I know it is not the thread but I am short USDJPY as well. I think we are due for a massive correction in the 30 days and this is a good price. About AUDUSD, if China pumps it higher I would like to short again if I have an intraday entry using my strategy.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,905
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:41pm Nov 30, 2014 7:41pm
If the RBA reveal on Tuesday they were actively intervening in the market remember who told you about this first, Panco lol
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,906
  • Nov 30, 2014 8:42pm Nov 30, 2014 8:42pm
That heavy shorting leading into chinese news was a bit dodgy. Seems to happen a bit. Not saying it's a conspiracy, but it's a conspiracy
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,907
  • Nov 30, 2014 8:48pm Nov 30, 2014 8:48pm
Hey guys i am long on the audusd. We just hit the D extension on the 4 hour fib. I think a pullback up to the 86 level is in the cards
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #87,908
  • Nov 30, 2014 8:58pm Nov 30, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting paddlepip
That heavy shorting leading into chinese news was a bit dodgy. Seems to happen a bit. Not saying it's a conspiracy, but it's a conspiracy
how about gbpusd?
any theory on that?
  • #87,909
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:30pm Nov 30, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Hey guys i am long on the audusd. We just hit the D extension on the 4 hour fib. I think a pullback up to the 86 level is in the cards
Why go against the trend? A pullback is possible but it best to stick to the trend and load up more shorts once pullback is reached.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #87,910
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:33pm Nov 30, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Why go against the trend? A pullback is possible but it best to stick to the trend and load up more shorts once pullback is reached.
Besides, we just created new lows for the year again.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #87,911
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:43pm Nov 30, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} how about gbpusd? any theory on that?
Fair call. But sure...

That's half a conspiracy:
Attached Image
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,912
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:51pm Nov 30, 2014 9:51pm
AUDUSD is downward bias currently due to possible rate cut and dovish speak from RBA. Fibs etc., totally pointless - no one manages Bank money like this. Sell at a limit abover .8520 possible to .8560 on pullback, otherwise your risk to reward doesn't make sense. You need also to be weary dollar impact from China and major eco news coming out this week for both the Aussie and US markets. These data will provide further direction to support current bias or otherwise.
  • #87,913
  • Edited 9:54pm Nov 30, 2014 9:51pm | Edited 9:54pm
If, and only AUD will continue falling and you will be scratching your head for a rational explanation besides "it is just one of these times the strategy is not working" you will realize the RBA is intervening in the market. It's called stealth intervention, they learned the trick from New Zealand. It will be noticeable in AUDUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,914
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:58pm Nov 30, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting Panco
If, and only AUD will continue falling and you will be scratching your head for a rational explanation besides "it is just one of these times the strategy is not working" you will realize the RBA is intervening in the market. It's called stealth intervention, they learned the trick from New Zealand. It will be noticeable in AUDUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD.
Could be and entirely possible. Not sure if it's happening at the moment considering the fall without intervention (that I can see / read about).

Here's some RBA history of it going on if you're interested:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013...-intervention/
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,915
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:10pm Nov 30, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} Could be and entirely possible. Not sure if it's happening at the moment considering the fall without intervention (that I can see / read about). Here's some RBA history of it going on if you're interested: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013...-intervention/
edit: In any case, the RBA certainly isn't intervening in the ASX200... getting hammered lol. Maybe they should pull a Japan and buy some Aussie stocks. Lots of superannuation funds hemorrhaging cash at the moment. This will affect retail and employment. Tanking stock market will also see capital flight (crossed with forex risk), not to mention reduced FDI, further putting downward pressure on AUD. Long story short... AUD is stuffed.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #87,916
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:11pm Nov 30, 2014 10:11pm
might mean something that close above trendline
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  • #87,917
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:15pm Nov 30, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting paddlepip
{quote} edit: In any case, the RBA certainly isn't intervening in the ASX200... getting hammered lol. Maybe they should pull a Japan and buy some Aussie stocks. Lots of superannuation funds hemorrhaging cash at the moment. This will affect retail and employment. Tanking stock market will also see capital flight (crossed with forex risk), not to mention reduced FDI, further putting downward pressure on AUD. Long story short... AUD is stuffed.
I am not sure if there is a firm correlation between ASX and AUD. If I research now I guess the bad weather caused some damage and the fall in iron ore prices is another factor for the losses. I guess we will have to wait for the RBA to affirm they have intervened in the market.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #87,918
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:19pm Nov 30, 2014 10:19pm
Also to be noted is AUD/CHF, falling to 0.8150s, breaking through 0.8200 major support and demand level. This pair is also a proxy for global risk sentiment, but dollar is on an uptrend.
Enter Signature
  • #87,919
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:27pm Nov 30, 2014 10:27pm
dollar on an uptrend?

the largest component of the USDX against the dollar is the EUR - negative interest rates....that makes it mighty easy for the dollar to take names...for now...it won't last forever...Interesting how inverse we are right now against 2007/08ish...completely flip flop...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #87,920
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:35pm Nov 30, 2014 10:35pm
There is a strong chance the down trend will continue imo but there may be a st correction here perhaps to fill the gap.

The TL is a 4hr channel from 14.11.14 16:00 (+2).
(Fk this, IE crashes every time I try to post a pic. in FF. Using Chrome now....)
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