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  • #2,481
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:11am Nov 28, 2014 7:11am
Thats it another BE **##**#!!!! I've had enough can't take anymore just one loser to show for a mornings bloody work!!! OK Mike I'm with you lets go hug some orphans....

EDIT actually just totaled it up and I've had one loser, one winner and 6 BE trades.... says it all really doesn't it??
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,482
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:33am Nov 28, 2014 7:33am
Think like a thief clive...

grab it and run
  • #2,483
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:40am Nov 28, 2014 7:40am
Quoting clivepackham
Thats it another BE **##**#!!!! I've had enough can't take anymore just one loser to show for a mornings bloody work!!! OK Mike I'm with you lets go hug some orphans.... EDIT actually just totaled it up and I've had one loser, one winner and 6 BE trades.... says it all really doesn't it??
Entry with 2 lots.

-out 1 lot in +10 (pairs with great ADR) or +6 (pairs with small ADR)
-put the other lot in BE+1 pip with TS 13 ...

I think it is the best option ...
  • #2,484
  • Nov 28, 2014 7:49am Nov 28, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Clipi
{quote} Entry with 2 lots. -out 1 lot in +10 (pairs with great ADR) or +6 (pairs with small ADR) -put the other lot in BE+1 pip with TS 13 ... I think it is the best option ...

Yep I'm thinking you're right best of both worlds then...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,485
  • Nov 28, 2014 8:04am Nov 28, 2014 8:04am
Last trade today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,486
  • Nov 28, 2014 12:07pm Nov 28, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting clivepackham
Nope a loser for 14 pips there unfortunately and it shouldn't of been either went straight into profit on entry up to about 6 pips instantly but before I could get to BE it came back very quickly so i closed it out for -14 pips. Need to get my automatic entry ea working that would of saved me there as I'm just too slow that time to get my BE in place... Oh well never mind looks like its coming down again now from the daily pivot looks like I might of paniced there but at the time it was moving against me so fast I just thought GTFO!!!!.. {image}...
That's where dynamic S/R can come in handy: you would have been saved by the kijun and cloud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KIJUN-GBPAUDM1.png Size: 88 KB
  • #2,487
  • Nov 28, 2014 1:23pm Nov 28, 2014 1:23pm
Two losers from testerday. The first one right into R1 (of my fibo-pivot) - really clever! The second one did not show clear PA - did it?....
Had I put my SL just behind the thick green line (M15 kijun), "only" 12 pips, they would ve gone to a win and BE within 2 hours.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 27-11-14-AUDCHFM1.png Size: 91 KB


What I am seeing many times, is that for a good entry - apart from the cci and trending rules - EMA, Kijun and cloud should be very close and of course the sooner in a new trend the better. This can be clearly seen on the left of the picture where the downtrend starts. A typical (although not a 100% strong) kumo break out, ema/kijun cross and PB all together.
If we can let that run, we're done for the day...
  • #2,488
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:03am Nov 29, 2014 12:03am
Quoting Go5
{quote} That's where dynamic S/R can come in handy: you would have been saved by the kijun and cloud. {image}
On the losing trade you highlight we should also have been saved by the LH LL flow having been broken. The last LH 82500 ish was taken out.
  • #2,489
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:07am Nov 29, 2014 12:07am
Hi Clive

Don't stress it just one of those days where it was US session to the rescue and one of our fave pairs gbpaud ran 100 pips from what I see as our 1st entry point after US open. Doesn't change the system, how good it is or what we are looking to do. Tight entries into decent intra day trends.
  • #2,490
  • Nov 29, 2014 7:50am Nov 29, 2014 7:50am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} On the losing trade you highlight we should also have been saved by the LH LL flow having been broken. The last LH 82500 ish was taken out.
Thanks!
So true...simply overlooked that...definitely need more practice!
If OK with Clive, I'll post some more trades now and then to see what you "seniors" have to say.
  • #2,491
  • Nov 29, 2014 11:30am Nov 29, 2014 11:30am
Quoting Go5
{quote} Thanks! So true...simply overlooked that...definitely need more practice! If OK with Clive, I'll post some more trades now and then to see what you "seniors" have to say.
Hi Go5

I think its more about market structure being right so sell LH's and DT's in a down trend or buy HL's or DB's in an uptrend. The more the 100lwma slopes the better too as defines a strong trender..

Mind you I agree with you 100% we need to be taking these entries much earlier in the trend shortly after the 100lwma slope changes would be perfect... The problem with the TTindy is it can bring you to trends that have run their course and just about to reverse. My check for this is when I pull a top trenders chart up I want to see the last low or high clearly taken out by the last AB leg. Any failed drives, I'd proceed cautiously moving to BE very promptly before the B point is reached.

Also I think only taking CCI signals as close to the 100lwma as possible helps enormously. The very best moves seem to come off of the 100lwma.. with far better RR's achievable and of course a great place for our 10 pip stops tucked behind the 100Lwma.. Always try to take entries (CCI signals) as close to key levels as possible to slide your initial stop behind...

Heres a chart of GBPAUD just after the Tokyo open showing some great 100lwma trades...note also they are the first couple of CCI signals after the 100lwma slope change. Especially the down signal...see how the first 3 CCI signals all worked nicely??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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One thing I'm slowly realizing is to be a bit choosier about which CCI signals to take, I'm very wary of any too far away from the moving average, sure they work sometimes but invariably don't go far and also if you wait a similar signal occurs close to the LWMA and goes further...

Always look for a strong drive in front of your CCI signal and look for a key level to drop your 10 pip stop behind....

And yes its fine to have someone else posting especially as you're obviously following the strategy closely with just a few add ons of your own, no problem, look forward to seeing your trades...

However what I'm not so happy about is this "seniors" comment, one more comment like that and you're BANNED FOR LIFE!!!!!
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,492
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:29pm Nov 29, 2014 12:29pm
Of course I use my TTindy to trade 1 minute timeframe but its just as effective on the longer timeframes too. Take the daily for instance, wander what you should be trading on daily timeframes???

Well lets have a look what my TTindy says when I set it to look at the top trenders on daily charts shall we???

Attached Image


Look like theres a bit of JPY weakness across the board now I wander why that is??? Nothing to do with Fred and his army of traders I suppose is it??? Has the BOJ Governor got firm orders from his leader to keep the JPY weak to support Japans exports??? Nahh its just natural market forces at work.....

Well lets look at a couple of these daily top trenders see exactly what we're looking at shall we???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hmmm, maybe I should start trading daily charts don't look too hard does it??? Every little pullback red candle leads to a nice little buy....

Of course its all looking well over bought now so no way should we contemplate buying should we???

But seriously I have been considering a end of day strategy based around the daily top trenders, just haven't got round to it yet. Think I might have t have a word with Mr V. see what he has to say about it....

Oh that reminds me someone did ask me what CCI setting I would use on a daily chart, well with charts like this I would say 8 or even 5 but to be honest don't expect to many oversold signals here, just trade the momentum swings from down to up or even better buy stops above every candle, especially red ones...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,493
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:45pm Nov 29, 2014 12:45pm
Actually carrying on from my last post about an end of day trading system based around these strong trending daily pairs, heres what I'm thinking...

Now remember my strategy is based around the simple idea that price can only go up or down therefore with daily charts like this all we're looking for is a sign that the price is going up...

Well how about using a 5 min 100lwma and whenever it turns up buy the first 2 CCI signals and get to BE asap then see what sticks??? Hold all trades until the 10sma turns back down, you'd be holding entries from about the 23rd October maybe a bit later...

Just an idea...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,494
  • Nov 29, 2014 12:59pm Nov 29, 2014 12:59pm
The method ABCD seems to be very easy but when it comes to actual trading we find it dificult to recognize the C where we need to buy/sell.
  • #2,495
  • Nov 29, 2014 2:02pm Nov 29, 2014 2:02pm
Very last post on Dailys but just wanted to show you the power of the strong trend making trading easier. The only two none JPY pairs in the top 8 daily trenders are EURUSD and GBPUSD they were a measley 6th and 7th strongest trenders but their charts look pretty easy to trade too. Stuck a 5 CCI on these as both trending so strongly....

But to be honest you don't need a CCI to tell you when to sell these do you???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 54 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 88 KB


So there you have it guys trading strong trending pairs makes it easier no matter what timeframe you trade....I personally wouldn't trade anything thats not in the top 8 in fact I'd almost say top 3 just to play it safe...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,496
  • Nov 29, 2014 2:27pm Nov 29, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Go5 I think its more about market structure being right so sell LH's and DT's in a down trend or buy HL's or DB's in an uptrend. The more the 100lwma slopes the better too as defines a strong trender.. Mind you I agree with you 100% we need to be taking these entries much earlier in the trend shortly after the 100lwma slope changes would be perfect... The problem with the TTindy is it can bring you to trends that have run their course and just about to reverse. My check for this is when I pull a top trenders chart up I want to see the...
Thanks, Clive. I have been using those clouds for more than a year, kind of "Loath to depart" situation I guess. The 100LWMA follows that cloud most of the time but the cloud also gives an amazing forecast of movements and is perfect for trailing. Now, about the best moves coming off of the 100lwma - true but in a really strong move the price won't touch this ma (or the cloud) - even the cci barely gets "down" to 100 so then, all we have left is PA discretion (and in my case the kijun bounce and cross). Look at this 100pip move:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend-GBPAUDM1.png Size: 91 KB


Let's see if we can catch a couple of those next week..
  • #2,497
  • Nov 29, 2014 2:48pm Nov 29, 2014 2:48pm
Can somebody please share the last indi's/template to this system?
  • #2,498
  • Edited 6:09pm Nov 29, 2014 5:55pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting Go5
{quote} Thanks, Clive. I have been using those clouds for more than a year, kind of "Loath to depart" situation I guess. The 100LWMA follows that cloud most of the time but the cloud also gives an amazing forecast of movements and is perfect for trailing. Now, about the best moves coming off of the 100lwma - true but in a really strong move the price won't touch this ma (or the cloud) - even the cci barely gets "down" to 100 so then, all we have left is PA discretion (and in my case the kijun bounce and cross). Look at this 100pip move: {image}...

Yep no problem with the cloud or Kijun whatever helps you to trade these moves is fine by me, just accepting the simple principle that price can only go up or down and how we identify the direction is very individual. I've posted the same chart as you and you're right the price never goes near the 100lwma so my earlier post would mean no entries as the trend is so strong it doesn't get back to the 100lwma and also even with an 8 CCI theres practically no +100 overbought signals.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1.png Size: 75 KB


So does that mean we don't trade it??? Of course not its a strong trender and I'm pretty sure it would of been top of the TTindy at the time... Its moves like this when we pull the chart up that we have to use our price action reading skills to decide on our entries, indicators are there just to help us identify good pairs to trade but the bottom line is its all about price action at the end of the day...

I'm confident I could eyeball these charts nowadays not needing any indicators, all I would do is loook at the slope on the 100lwma then just put pullback trendlines on my chart and when price closes across my trendline enter... Adding HA candles identifys these pullbacks even more just sell every red HA candle after a green one...

Also look at this chart have you any doubt which way to trade it?? Are the drives down strong and taking out the last drive down??? Is it producing LH after LH ??? This is exactly the type of chart we are looking for strong AB's one after the other and nice short BC moves. Thats the price action we're all looking for no matter what timeframe we trade all our indicators do is help us to identify them in a clear precise way ...

But the bottom line is its all about price action, price action.. price action...

EDIT: I will just quickly add on the subject of CCI pullbacks to the 100 levels are very good signals and we should in the main stick to them at all times, however as you can see from this very strong move sometimes they won't get back that far. I think its important to realize that the swing in momentum is the really important thing to see, as long as it swings from up to down then its a signal going over the 100 levels just means its a deeper pullback, which will normally get you back away from the last low or high of the trend so giving you more space between your entry and the B point...most of these entries, on this chart, you would be entering almost like breakouts of point B...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #2,499
  • Edited Nov 30, 2014 12:07am Nov 29, 2014 11:48pm | Edited Nov 30, 2014 12:07am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} .................................. The problem with the TTindy is it can bring you to trends that have run their course and just about to reverse. .........................
Add some math to this and you resolve this issue. Let me break my thoughts into points so that everyone gets the logic of what I say.

1. An uptrend makes HHs and HLs, whereas a downtrend make LLs and LHs. (True)
2. In an uptrend buy HLs. If trend continues you gain. In a down trend sell LHs. If trend continues you gain. (True).
3. If one is trend trading, gains as many times as the trend makes HHs/LLs, that is, trend continues. The trend trader loses only once when trend exhausts and reverses.(True)
4. That means if one successfully catches even the last leg of a trend should break-even when trend reverses. For example, if one gets on board a downtrend at such a time when it is making its last LH and gets off at its last LL. Since trader doesn't know that this was the last leg, will continue to trade the trend. Now if that trend reverses, will lose when sells the next LH. This way, one trade was won and one was lost. (True?)
5. Indeed an uptrend makes HHs and HLs, but the size of these legs are not uniform. (True)
6. If one sets the trade size in such a way that regardless of number of pips it moves to complete the leg, every leg in a trend gives even amount of profit (or loss when trend reverses) should either gain or break-even, unless the trend reverses without giving an opportunity to the trader to extract even one profitable leg from this trend.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #2,500
  • Nov 30, 2014 12:26pm Nov 30, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Add some math to this and you resolve this issue. Let me break my thoughts into points so that everyone gets the logic of what I say. 1. An uptrend makes HHs and HLs, whereas a downtrend make LLs and LHs. (True) 2. In an uptrend buy HLs. If trend continues you gain. In a down trend sell LHs. If trend continues you gain. (True). 3. If one is trend trading, gains as many times as the trend makes HHs/LLs, that is, trend continues. The trend trader loses only once when trend exhausts and reverses.(True) 4. That means if one successfully catches...
Hi Chicky

Great to have you here and appreciate your thoughts, if I'm reading it right you're saying decide on a set amount of profit lets say 7 pips as the average leg, then take that regardless of how far each leg goes. make sure you're losing leg is no bigger then as long as you get more than one leg with the trend then by simple maths you must finish in profit...

Yep makes sense, I guess what I'm thinking is that the trend legs should be longer than the pullback legs by definition of a trend so therefore I'm trying to take what the market is going to give me rather than some pre-determined amount... Rightly or wrongly that's what I've been trying to do , but to be honest the trades I took last Friday didn't move much more than 7 pips and came back at me quickly so I didn't close out in time, just let them go at BE..Always feeling they were just pulling back to rush forward again but alas that simply wasn't the case...

I feel its technically correct to expect a few more pips from my trades as I'm always trading with strong trenders, therefore can expect more than a usual 1 minute scalper.. In fact on many good days I have winners 20, 30 even 50 pip plus winners so feel verified in letting the market decide the size of my winners but last Friday it decided "not today sonny Jim..."

Looking back at Fridays BE day there is one thing that I could see that was amiss Friday..I was getting into the trends far too late in the moves.. I think I could put a lot of these BE trades down to the fact, that at the end of a trend, the momentum runs are greatly reduced..as you say my trends were reaching exhaustion ..

So heres what I'm thinking Chicky I'm going to take on board what you're saying and move my BE up to lock in 5 pips minimium win then see how far they run... That way no matter what I should get 5 pips assuming they go that far so might have some BE's if they don't move 5 plus pips.

But most importantly I'm gonna try to get into the trend at the start , get a couple of trades on early and hold until LWMA turns eg trend ends. But any entries after that, later in the trend, I will definitely grab as much as I can from each run...

Thanks again for dropping by very much appreciate it...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
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