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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,701
  • Nov 28, 2014 9:53pm Nov 28, 2014 9:53pm
It continues to struggle, losing even more momentum.

I see three possibilities, with the third one being the most unlikely.

1. A new high over 186.5/187x providing enough power to head towards 193/197 etc.

2. Conversely, a new high into 186.5/187x, followed by a minor fall back into 181/180 or 179x in the worst case before the up trend resumes.

3. A rapid and direct loss of 179/178 support, involving a return to the 170x pivot, then falling all the way back into 163 before the up trend resumes with strength.

Option 3 shown for entertainment

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYDaily.png Size: 56 KB
  • #16,702
  • Nov 28, 2014 9:57pm Nov 28, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting Mpt
It continues to struggle, losing even more momentum. I see three possibilities, with the third one being the most unlikely. 1. A new high over 186.5/187x providing enough power to head towards 193/197 etc. 2. Conversely, a new high into 186.5/187x, followed by a minor fall back into 181/180 or 179x in the worst case before the up trend resumes. 3. A rapid and direct loss of 179/178 support, involving a return to the 170x pivot, then falling all the way back into 163 before the up trend resumes with strength. Option 3 shown for entertainment {image}...
Which of those three do you suppose the fundamentals support at the moment?
  • #16,703
  • Nov 28, 2014 10:10pm Nov 28, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting Oser
{quote} Which of those three do you suppose the fundamentals support at the moment?

I'm not really a fundamentals kind of person, but option 3 would, as suggested, require a rapid shift in outlook. However, the momentum loss is precisely what would be expected at this point in option 3 ( or two )

Right now, two is preferred as it 'sounds' the most sensible. Nevertheless, a break through 187 or certainly 188 would have GJ breaking up (again) over resistance and such a move could be quite aggressive.

I only raise these possibilities because, as per a recent previous post here, GJ is running into big resistance and suffering loss of power at the same time.
  • #16,704
  • Nov 28, 2014 10:42pm Nov 28, 2014 10:42pm
​​Option 2 would also resemble the last price action after the boj intervened/eased.
  • #16,705
  • Nov 30, 2014 1:19pm Nov 30, 2014 1:19pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} GJ is running into big resistance and suffering loss of power at the same time.

I have seen this point made - that the 185-6ish area has been an important level now and in the past. I wonder, however, that if the perceived loss of momentum and what appears to be stalling at this resistance level, is in reality a result of the low volume due to the holiday week in Japan and in the US. Definitely not ruling out a fall from this level - but I don't think we've really begun to see the true impact of the all of the stimulus and QE in Japan. Just my 2 cents.
  • #16,706
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:58am Dec 1, 2014 4:58am
Quoting Mpt
It continues to struggle, losing even more momentum. I see three possibilities, with the third one being the most unlikely. 1. A new high over 186.5/187x providing enough power to head towards 193/197 etc. 2. Conversely, a new high into 186.5/187x, followed by a minor fall back into 181/180 or 179x in the worst case before the up trend resumes. 3. A rapid and direct loss of 179/178 support, involving a return to the 170x pivot, then falling all the way back into 163 before the up trend resumes with strength. Option 3 shown for entertainment {image}...
Option 2 is running ... but exactly where is resistance? 187.5~8?
  • #16,707
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:13pm Dec 1, 2014 9:13pm
Hey all, I've mostly been trading USD/JPY lately because it's been an absolute no-brainer trade.

But it's been stagnating a bit lately so I decided to venture back to my one true love, geppy :-)

I went long last night at 185.55 and hoping to see at least a couple hundred pips from her. My main basis for going long was general JPY weakness, an over sold GBP, and the ascending triangle on the 1h chart where we've been bouncing nicely off some main moving averages:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2014-12-01 19.10.07.png Size: 100 KB
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  • #16,708
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:23pm Dec 1, 2014 9:23pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, I've mostly been trading USD/JPY lately because it's been an absolute no-brainer trade. But it's been stagnating a bit lately so I decided to venture back to my one true love, geppy :-) I went long last night at 185.55 and hoping to see at least a couple hundred pips from her. My main basis for going long was general JPY weakness, an over sold GBP, and the ascending triangle on the 1h chart where we've been bouncing nicely off some main moving averages: {image}
I would keep an eye on the upper line in the chart I just posted:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 4hr chart.JPG Size: 122 KB
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #16,709
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, I've mostly been trading USD/JPY lately because it's been an absolute no-brainer trade. But it's been stagnating a bit lately so I decided to venture back to my one true love, geppy :-) I went long last night at 185.55 and hoping to see at least a couple hundred pips from her. My main basis for going long was general JPY weakness, an over sold GBP, and the ascending triangle on the 1h chart where we've been bouncing nicely off some main moving averages: {image}
I too am long on this pair, awaiting the breakout... Or I should say, awaiting the continuation of the breakout, imo. Since I view it as already broken out on H4, and D1. Of course, it could fall back in the range, but lower time frames still look bullish to me...
  • #16,710
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, I've mostly been trading USD/JPY lately because it's been an absolute no-brainer trade. But it's been stagnating a bit lately so I decided to venture back to my one true love, geppy :-) I went long last night at 185.55 and hoping to see at least a couple hundred pips from her. My main basis for going long was general JPY weakness, an over sold GBP, and the ascending triangle on the 1h chart where we've been bouncing nicely off some main moving averages: {image}
You found your way back - thought you'd got lost or something
  • #16,711
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm Dec 1, 2014 9:29pm
Quoting Panco
{quote} I would keep an eye on the upper line in the chart I just posted: {image}
Definitely another interpretation, but I feel the horizontal line better fits with the previous attempts to break through.

As always though, time will tell...
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  • #16,712
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:30pm Dec 1, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} You found your way back - thought you'd got lost or something


Good to see you, Mpt.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #16,713
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:32pm Dec 1, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I too am long on this pair, awaiting the breakout... Or I should say, awaiting the continuation of the breakout, imo. Since I view it as already broken out on H4, and D1. Of course, it could fall back in the range, but lower time frames still look bullish to me...
Agreed, the uptrend has been well supported on every timeframe right down to the 15min. It's never fun to consolidate for 10+ days, but hey... patience pays.
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  • #16,714
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:32pm Dec 1, 2014 9:32pm
wb budd, hope u r doing well.

Quoting Geppy
{quote} Good to see you, Mpt.
  • #16,715
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:36pm Dec 1, 2014 9:36pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Agreed, the uptrend has been well supported on every timeframe right down to the 15min. It's never fun to consolidate for 10+ days, but hey... patience pays.
Indeed. I started thinking, after playing the range a bit, it might be a little more relaxing for this pair to just hold and target 189

By the way, good to have the thread starter (you) here. You seem like a solid trader from what i've seen of your prior posts.
  • #16,716
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:38pm Dec 1, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting ssaqeel
wb budd, hope u r doing well. {quote}
Thanks, ssaqeel!
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  • #16,717
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:40pm Dec 1, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Indeed. I started thinking, after playing the range a bit, it might be a little more relaxing for this pair to just hold and target 189 By the way, good to have the thread starter (you) here. You seem like a solid trader from what i've seen of your prior posts.
189 looks like a fine target... I'm looking more toward 196 for a long-term (read: potential multi-week) target. Of course, I'd probably trade in and out a few times on our way there though.

Trend trading is much more relaxing if you can handle the long bouts of boredom. The trick is to find a pair that's trending nicely and just ride it. That's what I've been doing lately with USD/JPY.
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  • #16,718
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:47pm Dec 1, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Definitely another interpretation, but I feel the horizontal line better fits with the previous attempts to break through. As always though, time will tell...
Ok, just trying to help. Good luck with the trade
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #16,719
  • Dec 1, 2014 10:02pm Dec 1, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} 189 looks like a fine target... I'm looking more toward 196 for a long-term (read: potential multi-week) target. Of course, I'd probably trade in and out a few times on our way there though. Trend trading is much more relaxing if you can handle the long bouts of boredom. The trick is to find a pair that's trending nicely and just ride it. That's what I've been doing lately with USD/JPY.
Yep, wish I could ride the trends a little longer term. I just have a hard time with those retraces erasing profits

I always look at historical trends in various pairs, and see how much could be made, by simply adding to positions on pull-backs, but so far, I haven't been comfortable holding positions for that long. But, like you say, longer term it works out. And less trading as well, which means less losses. Maybe eventually, I'll get there. I'll need to at least try it, hey maybe I'll like it

I also agree with upward potential you mention, i.e. 196. So, I do think GBPJPY current situation is a good opportunity for trying out a little longer term trading, and I was going to see how far I could ride it. We'll see how much patience and discipline I can muster up...
  • #16,720
  • Dec 1, 2014 10:05pm Dec 1, 2014 10:05pm
I am short USDJPY. Although that does not affect GBPJPY I would still keep an eye on it.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
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