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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,501
  • Nov 27, 2014 1:46pm Nov 27, 2014 1:46pm
[quote=nic73;7903264]
Quoting trademin
141125-3EURUSD: Do you see a possible HS in there ?if so a possible nice range down , {image}[/quote I would see it as (minor) double top. What do you say? HS does not look perfect but then you gave me some better insight what SHS could look like, not always perfect of course. Thank you.{image}

When I took that picture the last candle wasn't closed yet, and it turns out that it went the opposite way…some 2hrs 22 min later.

But that figure on the picture looks to me as a pull back to the 21ema (blue) and a small consolidation, and if it would had closed down that way, as the picture, I sure would have taken it , TC to support!
But since it turned around, there is no TC !
When I took that picture it was only to show what I see as the market moves on, that's all. And if it would (picture) have stay like that, I would have consider it as a HS for sure, because it was one for me.
Yvon
  • #28,502
  • Nov 27, 2014 2:52pm Nov 27, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting trademin
Quoting nic73
{quote} When I took that picture the last candle wasn't closed yet, and it turns out that it went the opposite way…some 2hrs 22 min later. But that figure on the picture looks to me as a pull back to the 21ema (blue) and a small consolidation, and if it would had closed down that way, as the picture, I sure would have taken it , TC to support! But since it turned around, there is no TC ! When I took that picture it was only to show what I see as the market moves on, that's all. And if it would (picture) have stay
...
Where would we be without you Yvon .
Thanks for being our driver my friend. I have been watching daily for your updates and question replies. Great stuff and much appreciated by our small family of Rythym followers.
Sorry I have been absent for so long - I needed to work on a couple of ideas I had including this strategy that Philip shared with us. My trials & testing are completed for now and I can honestly state that THIS method is a winner for those prepared to take what we have been given & to adapt the basic rythym of the market to suit our personal styles.
I have spent over 2 months looking at the signals generated from the 21ma. That includes all TC's and all CT's ( Round Top/Bottom etc). To make my ideas work better, I needed to find currency pairs that had vigorous movements - good strong swings that would quickly give out ( or take back ) pips freely and frequently. My trials have narrowed my chart watch down to 3 pairs - EA /GA /AU and just yesterday I have also included the UChf.
My testing analysis will continue for some time to come because I need to now filter the trade rules to find the best trade times for me. Anyway - I won't contaminate our beloved thread with historical numbers etc - I just want to say that if you spot something that repeats consistantly, then do some homework on it - you will be amazed what you find.
Anyway - its great to be home. Happy ThanksGiving to my USA friends. Remember - markets might be slow but they can also be nasty so be careful if using Live accounts.
  • #28,503
  • Nov 27, 2014 2:59pm Nov 27, 2014 2:59pm
Howdy Guys ,
Sharing these charts with you - just to show you simple is best.

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  • #28,504
  • Nov 27, 2014 7:56pm Nov 27, 2014 7:56pm
Pound Aussie & Euro Aussie Updates :

Both have taken 40pips off table & set the remainder at Break Even +2.

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  • #28,505
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:24pm Nov 30, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting binnie
Howdy Guys , Sharing these charts with you - just to show you simple is best. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Thanks Binnie for sharing, those are very nice trades!
Yvon
  • #28,506
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:34pm Nov 30, 2014 6:34pm
141127AUDUSD :
Just closed some trades : nice profit there.I just closed it at the downtrend channel line
I agree with you Binnie, there some more down move that could be coming in there.
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Yvon
  • #28,507
  • Edited 8:07pm Nov 30, 2014 7:02pm | Edited 8:07pm
141128EURAUD`:

Nice TC, the pair made a HS while in consolidation

closed trade, some 80+ gain
expecting a small pull back to 8ema...
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Yvon
  • #28,508
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:25pm Nov 30, 2014 7:25pm
About the EURUSD:
I was expecting the pair to turn around at the top no.1
But just had to wait for the pair to make 2 other top before falling! In and Out, but still nice profit there
Looks like the 3 sisters…
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Yvon
  • #28,509
  • Nov 30, 2014 11:26pm Nov 30, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting trademin
141127AUDUSD : Just closed some trades : nice profit there.I just closed it at the downtrend channel line I agree with you Binnie, there some more down move that could be coming in there. {image}
Good trades Yvon - I have a plan for the Aussie. I will enjoy a play back up to the 21 if everything goes according to my anticipation. Then we could have another go short ??

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Nice one on the EuroAussie as well. I see a possible roll over on the H4 based on the Daily Resistance on an upper trendline. Divergence brewing so adds to my expectation.
  • #28,510
  • Dec 1, 2014 5:39pm Dec 1, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hey! That was a nice Trade! you comment that you where afraid of entering the trade since price didn’t get below the 21ema: If I remember well, a RT is a RT, and the best place to take the trade is by the macd rule…on the spot you draw a yellow line, your were right! Right at the close of that double top!---just above the 200 could have you initial SL, and there you go, A very nice trade!
But where the yellow dotted vertical line is, is that a MACD signal? Nope. But I entered the trade 4hr late. The candle before the one with the vertical line is where a RT has formed? I think.
  • #28,511
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:06pm Dec 1, 2014 7:06pm
Hi Guys,

I have been quiet for a few days but I am reading your posts. Thank you YVON for replying. Lots of questions a usual and hope you won't mind.

Binnie, Thank you too for coming back. Post your charts. Love reading them.

I have here AUDUSD: Still trading the time of posting. Leave me you comments please.
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  • #28,512
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:07pm Dec 1, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Guys, I have been quiet for a few days but I am reading your posts. Thank you YVON for replying. Lots of questions a usual and hope you won't mind. Binnie, Thank you too for coming back. Post your charts. Love reading them. I have here AUDUSD: Still trading the time of posting. Leave me you comments please. {image}
Gees Nic - you don't need any comments from us buddy. Great analysis - you have put all of your OWN PERSONAL touches into deciding this was a valid trade for YOU. Well done. I cannot add anything more to your anticipation.
I anticipated that earlier Counter Trend back to the 21 but being 11pm candle for me, I could only watch the end result and sayout loud ( to myself that is ) that this method really works exactly the way Philip said it would. I am in the same short right now with you and I am guessing Yvon would have seen this as well. Great work with the 3 Sisters - you are ahead of me there my friend. Yvon has a good handle on that aspect so he can comment better than I can.

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Just so we don't get the wrong idea that we cannot get losers here - I got my bum kicked by the Pound Aussie this morning. Assumed it would follow the EuroAussie down for a few nice pips but it had other ideas. Still, I played by my rules so I give myself a pat on the back for that at least.

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If you are a follower of BPM action - Have a look at the H1 for the PoundAussie and see if there might be an entry past the Breakout Bar High supported by a possible TC on the Macd ?? (Just something I am looking at presently)

Keep up your good work Nic - you are doing really well.
  • #28,513
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:14pm Dec 1, 2014 11:14pm
Update on our Aussie trades NIC:

I know the market wants to move down a bit more - some resistance at the moment and I am only guessing but there was a bit of strong news out from Aussie today and that may be holding prices up a bit. Hope to get back in tune with the longer trend South shortly. Just hope my Stop holds ././..
  • #28,514
  • Dec 2, 2014 12:37am Dec 2, 2014 12:37am
Quoting binnie
Update on our Aussie trades NIC: I know the market wants to move down a bit more - some resistance at the moment and I am only guessing but there was a bit of strong news out from Aussie today and that may be holding prices up a bit. Hope to get back in tune with the longer trend South shortly. Just hope my Stop holds ././..
Yes Binnie, thanks for commenting on my post, really appreciate it.

And yes, the AUDUSD market is still reacting to the RED news released a couple of hours ago. I was kind of taking that for granted. And I am losing 62pips at this very moment. No happy but holding on as I learn to trust that I am able and capable. And yes hopefully the dust will settle soon. And the pair will continue moving south as I have anticipated. Keep my fingers crossed and praying hard.
  • #28,515
  • Dec 2, 2014 12:54am Dec 2, 2014 12:54am
AUDNZD:

Observing this pair closely as price to pulling back to 21ema.
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  • #28,516
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:12am Dec 2, 2014 6:12am
Welcome
For some time I play this system, but I have a question. Do you play during consolidation? I have avoided it if you have any ways how to play in the consolidation of this system? What formations then check?
  • #28,517
  • Dec 2, 2014 6:13am Dec 2, 2014 6:13am
Re: Post 28511
AUDUSD Re-entry

How did you go with this pair Binnie? I got taken out at 72 pips. Ouch! Painful but I took the opportunity to re-enter and it at 56pips gain the moment. I think market could continue to south at this point and if it does, I will take back what I have lost, at least.

My mistake is probably, trading when RED new is around the corner. Made this mistake many times but with what I have in the analysis is too tempting not to trigger the sell button. Always learning from mistakes - that's taking positive side of life. Pressing on......

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  • #28,518
  • Dec 2, 2014 12:40pm Dec 2, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting nic73
Re: Post 28511 AUDUSD Re-entry How did you go with this pair Binnie? I got taken out at 72 pips. Ouch! Painful but I took the opportunity to re-enter and it at 56pips gain the moment. I think market could continue to south at this point and if it does, I will take back what I have lost, at least. My mistake is probably, trading when RED new is around the corner. Made this mistake many times but with what I have in the analysis is too tempting not to trigger the sell button. Always learning from mistakes - that's taking positive side of life. Pressing...
Not fair Nic - it must have JUST TOUCHED you . Almost as though they know where your Stop is at?? Of course we know that ain't so. Good that you got a re-entry mate. I am still expecting price to make its way down to that 84.00 level. Yep - that good RED news added some pain to the trade but I am still in and looking good . My initial stop was at 8550 and that has held for me . The next TC looked a nice re-entry spot but it was an 11pm close for me here and I am always in bed by then.
You are doing well buddy - I certainly ain't no expert here but you seem to be seeing the same set ups as I do.

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  • #28,519
  • Edited 6:40pm Dec 2, 2014 12:54pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting nic73
Hi Guys, I have been quiet for a few days but I am reading your posts. Thank you YVON for replying. Lots of questions a usual and hope you won't mind. Binnie, Thank you too for coming back. Post your charts. Love reading them. I have here AUDUSD: Still trading the time of posting. Leave me you comments please. {image}
Hi Nic,

I like that chart. It is well done. It is easy to see the rhythm: price bouncing on the 21ema. Very nice chart presentation.-

As you can see also is the fact that sometime the price just move a little above the 21ema but still a pull back and move away down from the 21ema.(and crossing the 21 ema with less and less impressive moves too!) Those 3 bounces or those 3 sisters represent to me big attempts to break the channel on the upside by 3 Times…without success since the pair stays in a down trend channel! This is what it really means to me. And for that reason the odd are for the price to move lower. (which the pair did later!)

If I look at your chart. Sure, I know that the pair will decide what direction it will take! But by the time I write comment there is already a move down and also a RB on the macd made already. Since the price has done that move down and the pair has made a RB on the macd , a consideration to be careful about is the last RB (round bottom) and the price reaction the pair have from that same point: looks like the next RB (not done yet) will be higher than the last one. So a possible divergence (positive this time) and maybe the pair could change eventually direction.-that’s maybe about the coming AUD GDP later today. But again, will see! Nice chart!

EDIT: NICE RESULT! the price keep going down! nice thing!
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Yvon
  • #28,520
  • Dec 2, 2014 1:13pm Dec 2, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting sajmon
Welcome For some time I play this system, but I have a question. Do you play during consolidation? I have avoided it if you have any ways how to play in the consolidation of this system? What formations then check?

hi sajmon, welcome

A consolidation is also called “indecision” because the pair has no trend!

You can trade those “indecision time” if there is enough room to take profit there, room here is “range” within that consolidation. Phillip Nel discuss it in this tread. Selling on the top and buying at the bottom. But personally I stay away from those indecision time and just wait for a break out to see what direction to consider opportunities. But I know there are different way to open position and having a clue of the direction the pair should take, but not necessary discuss in depth in this tread. Rhythm gives a lot of opportunities already
Yvon
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