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  • #441
  • Edited 10:20am Nov 26, 2014 10:10am | Edited 10:20am
very interesting thread, thanks to Fezmar.

as i've LIVE traded graeme's method in 2010 and 2011, the keys of the method are two:

1. maintain a frequency to enter -- participation (quoted Graeme)
it may be extremely exhaustive and mentally torturing to maintain this "frequency"

2. how to exit. ---- in fact, many newbies, or weak minds fall here.
in fact, only a trader with a good trading technique (his method must have a positive expectancy, regardless of RR) can succeed, imho. however, the dilemma here is that when a trader has a good skill, he doesn't need to trading this way anymore. he'll be profitable right there at the end of the day, instead of the end of the year.

at this end of the day, a profitable trader will be profitable using it, very likely much more profitable;
but a losing trader will very likely (i in fact believe he still will) stay losing using this method.
the reason is simple, the core of the trading, one's entry+exit combined has positive expectancy OR NOT???

failure to realize that the profit lies in entry+exit method is very dangerous to who uses this method! It is never the MM that plays the core ---- in this case, I don't think adjust RR to 40 is about MM.

I guess the true merit of this method is for traders who like doing it part time, or with a method having a little edge like 55% (at most 60%, but less than 70%, assuming RR=1). This is very likely best investment method in this world, but probably not the best for daytraders.

though i don't trade in this manner, but i attached an EA which I coded in Graeme year (2010) following his idea. the entry was based on every 100 pip grid with sl of 100 pip. i believe that if for this year 2014. you will have crazy profit using it. it will be easily backtested in MT4, if interested. Anyone may change the entry method like a MA cross, or RSI cross. The outcome will be similar. I don't have a MT4 to show you the backtest now.

it is merely a supporting document to Fezmar's trading methodology.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Graeme .00 Multi-Reminder v2.mq4   23 KB | 619 downloads
  • #442
  • Nov 26, 2014 10:21am Nov 26, 2014 10:21am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} At the beginning it is very true. We can only accumulate losses and unrealized profits. We expect a 500 pip runner to pay the debt. Not even sure it will happen. I think I'll have to kill some "potential" to pay for the "survivability". As I see it, after some time, if I can get one 500 baby and a few smallers ones, the small ones grow the account and the 500 pip profit will now finance the next batch of seeds. With my 10 pip SL it makes 50 attempts. Let's imagine that I can catch two 500 pip runners plus a few smallers fishes with these...
let's imagine this..

You make 40 entries and faced with no open position running large... so no open position and -120pips in the whole at half percent equals to about -10% after lets say a month... now another 40 entries this time you got 1 surviving position floating lets say at +100 pips... now you got -240 at -20% loss with unrealized of about 8%.. which makes about -12% overall in the hole... now next batch of 40 and you get 1 more surviving one floating at +100 but going the opposite way of the 1st open positions... your loss accumulation now is at -360 pips with two open position where total of both don't even sum to 200 pips and perhaps the 1st one is about to be taken out at BE.. so your really left with -360 for +100.. now safe to say your down 20% overall... and so on.. it could accumulate in the same fashion in a bad cycle till your down about 40% or so and the under valued open positions are been taken out in chop range market..
so after a few months of trading you are in hole desperately in need of a breakout run hitting something over 400 pips just to be back at breakeven... now.. freez the picture right there... and one would ask this of himself... am I going to continue this for how long?... whats the security of me not falling into same cycle the next quarter time? am i up for it mental wise anyway to trade for another month and be down another 10% and still continue on.. and all kinds of other questions and concerns..
gotta imagine facing this type situation before even thinking about taking up on such methods.. ablility to cope with it mentally and financially to still believe and if it does not happen (which it very well can) and be ok with it that you drain the whole or most of the account after 2 or 3 quarter of trading time.
and this is not even the worst case scenario, it could be even worse if one is not risk wisely and small enough.. if your totally up on your game on your entry and unlucky kick out of major runs due to tight stops and aggressive TS, etc..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #443
  • Nov 26, 2014 10:39am Nov 26, 2014 10:39am
As your subscriber, i've always admire your math/stats capability. It seems that you are considering the entry/exit skills more now. therefore, there's a 2-cent opinion from me

if we observe Fezmar's method, we'll see it is a S/R trading. it is in fact Contrarian Trading (CT)

a entry method cored on CT is probably the key for one to succeed in this method.

this method requires a frequency of entries, as well as small stoploss. therefore, we must buy low, and sell high. ---- (a little off-topic here, but buy lo sell hi is the only way to win). In other words, you buy at a support, or a MA cross down, or a bar down, or the price is falling down. The entry method is more promising designed this way.

And it is just a start of a long process before applying it into LIVE trading.


side notes:
According to Fezmar's description, he might have very likely ended-up much less equity (but still profitable) if he use 1% risk let's say.

Also don't forget Graeme's success partially due to he started in 2008 and captured finance meltdown.

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} For now what bugs me the most is that my lab rat (demo account) is slowly but surely converting the money into unrealized profits. Should they disappear the account is in the loss. I also try variants. First I'm just too bad a trader to use 5 pips SL. I use 10. The 3 positions I have above 100 pips are locked at +30 pips. The rationale behind is that they are 3 free bullets for a market that can only go up or down. Will see if this works or breaks everything apart...
  • #444
  • Nov 26, 2014 10:47am Nov 26, 2014 10:47am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} let's imagine this..

And there in lies the problem.

You can't judge the efficacy of the method based on imagined numbers. One could just as easily come up with an opposite scenario where we'd all be millionaires...but it would still be inaccurate.

We have a thread OP who has been successful using this method. Now one can either believe him or not.
Personally I have employed this system (the base idea, not Fez's particular slant) successfully. If you take a look at my "Easy as PI" thread from back in late 2012 to early 2013, I was able to turn in some amazing returns in a few month period. Stacking trades and holding them for long term profits. Now there were a lot of factors that helped make that work (Yen runs...seems like that keeps happening) and some other factors that got me in trouble (lot sizing), but the base idea of building positions and holding them for extended periods can produce some excellent long term results.

It's going to come down to (as all systems do) the skills of the individual trader. This isn't the Holy Grail and Fez has never claimed it to be, but it is another perspective and a potentially dynamic MM system that can produce big yields.
JMHO
  • #445
  • Nov 26, 2014 11:01am Nov 26, 2014 11:01am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} let's imagine this.. You make 40 entries and faced with no open position running large... so no open position and -120pips in the whole at half percent equals to about -10% after lets say a month... now another 40 entries this time you got 1 surviving position floating lets say at +100 pips... now you got -240 at -20% loss with unrealized of about 8%.. which makes about -12% overall in the hole... now next batch of 40 and you get 1 more surviving one floating at +100 but going the opposite way of the 1st open positions... your loss accumulation...
For sure bad periods will happen. Charvo is also right that it is better that the bad period happen when you can pay the DD with money already banked as opposed to start with 3 months under water. But I don't fully understand your scenario. Let's take a bad quarter where E/U stays blocked in a tight range. You will always have a couple of long positions at the bottom and a few shorts at the top since you follow the price intraday. You don't "have to" hold for 500 pips. Fez said that when he sees the trend turning he closes a big position and the ones too close of the PA. That's what I meant by kill some "potential" to pay for the "survivability".

March to May 2014 E/U was in a 400 pip range. That's a good playground for backtesting.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #446
  • Nov 26, 2014 11:13am Nov 26, 2014 11:13am
Quoting charvo
very interesting thread, thanks to Fezmar. as i've LIVE traded graeme's method in 2010 and 2011, the keys of the method are two: 1. maintain a frequency to enter -- participation (quoted Graeme) it may be extremely exhaustive and mentally torturing to maintain this "frequency" 2. how to exit. ---- in fact, many newbies, or weak minds fall here. in fact, only a trader with a good trading technique (his method must have a positive expectancy, regardless of RR) can succeed, imho. however, the dilemma here is that when a trader has a good skill, he...
Hi charvo,

Thanks for sharing EA. I'm checking
  • #447
  • Nov 26, 2014 11:20am Nov 26, 2014 11:20am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} For sure bad periods will happen. Charvo is also right that it is better that the bad period happen when you can pay the DD with money already banked as opposed to start with 3 months under water. But I don't fully understand your scenario. Let's take a bad quarter where E/U stays blocked in a tight range. You will always have a couple of long positions at the bottom and a few shorts at the top since you follow the price intraday. You don't "have to" hold for 500 pips. Fez said that when he sees the trend turning he closes[/highlight]...
sure bud... but seeing the turn and to be definite about it in such range is nothing more than a guess or a 50/50 chance and it could make you keep taking yourself out of positions with little value not sufficient enough to get you to breakeven much as less wining.
the point is, once faced with roughs this would be very indecisive and not some edge to rely on.
I can go into detail scenario but let's not now, lol
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #448
  • Edited 11:45am Nov 26, 2014 11:29am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} And there in lies the problem. You can't judge the efficacy of the method based on imagined numbers. One could just as easily come up with an opposite scenario where we'd all be millionaires...but it would still be inaccurate. We have a thread OP who has been successful using this method. Now one can either believe him or not. Personally I have employed this system (the base idea, not Fez's particular slant) successfully. If you take a look at my "Easy as PI" thread from back in late 2012 to early 2013, I was able to turn in some amazing...
spyderman, I agree with you... but with out forward test what we can do is to run scenarios and be aware of different situations. the forward test of this thing takes months and yrs, lol...
in my earlier post i gave a very positive scenario too.. it could be damn good in a trending market where you can get on dips and ride it nicely, at times before you know it you be at 200+... eu's recent short run of 1500 pips is a good example... perhaps one could have got a few positions running big for major bank.
but gotta always account for worst case scenarios in order to be prepared for when it occurs or to chose if this for you or not to even begin with.
btw i don't doubt fezmars success by no means... it's irrelevant his success or failure... i am exploring and observing the methodology.

this is all also IMHO.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #449
  • Nov 26, 2014 12:02pm Nov 26, 2014 12:02pm
@fxempire



i like your approach! ..

The main problem with this whole methology is... it has alot of interpretual parameters..(just like the whole trading world offers) the whole methology rides along the all known saying of " cut your losses and let profits ride" .. in this case.. the entry method doesnt mather ( anything goes, again alot of interpretation) exits ? Take profits? .. no ! again very discretionary .. mix it up with your entrys and losses one enduranced .. and your are again.. on a very interpretional / discretionary managing theme.. all seems kinda vague and .. sort of smokes and mirrors.... add to it that it works for some.. and the whole run.. for a HG starts again... based on a single sentence everyone interprets differently... and as u know it.. everyone trys to fix or reverse / back optimizes single parameters ie. turning in circles again ....funny to watch somehow thou

good luck everybody!
  • #450
  • Edited 1:41pm Nov 26, 2014 12:24pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting charvo
As your subscriber, i've always admire your math/stats capability. It seems that you are considering the entry/exit skills more now. therefore, there's a 2-cent opinion from me if we observe Fezmar's method, we'll see it is a S/R trading. it is in fact Contrarian Trading (CT) a entry method cored on CT is probably the key for one to succeed in this method. this method requires a frequency of entries, as well as small stoploss. therefore, we must buy low, and sell high. ---- (a little off-topic here, but buy lo sell hi is the only way to win). In...
great comment. I pretty much have the same view - entry/exit skills are key to FEZ's success. Also the method will work if the entries are good in identifying reverals/start of the trends (and not stopping out before the reversal really happens) which you call CT.

So i think it will be really useful if FEZ can shed some light of his entries - i know initially he didnt feel that entries are that important but many now feel entries are important.

FEZ,
Thanks again for sharing all you have so far and look forward to further discussion.

PS: if you are open to it, you can share your entries (remove the size etc) here or send me via pm. I (and many others here like pipmeup etc) can do the analysis of the entries and see what is the expectancy of those are. Just a suggestion.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #451
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:00pm Nov 26, 2014 1:00pm
That's right! although Fezmar is absolutely not obliged to share his trades, it'll be very beneficial to his own trading too if STT or PipMeUp run some analysis on the trades.

similar like STT mentioned previously, the way Fezmar set BE doesn't seem very optimal to me based on the numbers he describe. He seemed lost some pips that could've been made. Whether setting BE? BE 0 or BE 5 pip? and when to BE? these can only be answered in studying the raw trades.

Quoting stt
{quote} Thanks again for sharing all you have so far and look forward to further discussion. PS: if you are open to it, you can share your entries (remove the size etc) here or send me via pm. I (and many others here like pipmeup etc) can do the analysis of the entries and see what is the expectancy of those are. Just a suggestion.
  • #452
  • Nov 26, 2014 1:46pm Nov 26, 2014 1:46pm
I looked at a lot of charts. I would say that given the very tight SL and the immediate BE the entry method in itself is irrelevent but where the entry happens is critical. Pullbacks kill almost all the positions even in good trends. Taking the BO of the previous HH/LL? just forget it! To me charvo is correct. You have to buy very low/sell very high in the short term pullbacks.

Would you have open exclusively short positions in this down trend all of thoses in a red area would have been stopped. Duh! And that's not a range!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: I_will_survive.png Size: 16 KB
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #453
  • Edited 2:28pm Nov 26, 2014 2:13pm | Edited 2:28pm
my perception is Fezmar's way is doable. and the outcome will be profitable numberwise.

but the question that you've been asking and I've been concerned, is if it is worthy the efforts. That's why Fezmar's entries deserves careful consideration.

Let's derive it logically. just an effort, very raw starting point, i may well be wrong.

since great profit needs trend at daily TF ->
so the entry method can use a long MA (e.g. 50) to identify trend.

entry has to be cheap ->
so the entry method might use a MA(5) Cross MA(10), but use it in the contrarian way. SL may be previous 1~3 days' Low or High, or 50 pips.

in fact, the method i described is very similar to the "flying buddaha" in Graeme's original thread. i coded that too, it looked very promising. but the question was still, if it was worthy to apply....... But on the backtests, I could say this method may accumulate a huge floating profit within several months. But I didn't know how to exit and therefore didn't pursue further due to long term concerns......

btw, my view to this method is it clearly will work for a seasoned traders with an okay entry/market reading (0.1+ expectancy). this trader must NOT withdraw his profit often. and this method taking more time makes it an investment method.

edited:
heck, i've posted another EA of "flying buddaha", similar to the method i described above. This is for readers to understand and feel how Fezmar-like method works in backtests! NOT for your to trade and get rich!

i've received some pm on why there are some errors compiling them, it is because of new version of MT4. but most of these errors are very simple marking problems, you should be able to solve yourselves. if not, you should not being using an EA, man, lol...... i'm sorry for i have no time or program to solve these issues for you.

Quoting PipMeUp
You have to buy very low/sell very high in the short term pullbacks. Would you have open exclusively short positions in this down trend all of thoses in a red area would have been stopped. Duh! And that's not a range! {image}
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Graeme Catch Every FB.mq4   19 KB | 568 downloads
  • #454
  • Nov 26, 2014 2:18pm Nov 26, 2014 2:18pm
Fez, my dear bro............what mature mind u have got...
I studied hard day in and day out learning what not in this market for the past 3 years........but today in these 3 hours of going through your forum, I learnt something special.
Many thanks to you for sharing this.
Hope to implement this in days to come.
Regards.
  • #455
  • Nov 26, 2014 2:55pm Nov 26, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} sure bud... but seeing the turn and to be definite about it in such range is nothing more than a guess or a 50/50 chance and it could make you keep taking yourself out of positions with little value not sufficient enough to get you to breakeven much as less wining. the point is, once faced with roughs this would be very indecisive and not some edge to rely on. I can go into detail scenario but let's not now, lol
Hi FXEmpire,
I think all your scenarios have been explained in Fez's firsts posts. You're not saying anything new.
  • #456
  • Nov 26, 2014 3:10pm Nov 26, 2014 3:10pm
DIBS (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86766) entries?

k
  • #457
  • Nov 26, 2014 3:18pm Nov 26, 2014 3:18pm
am i right to say Fezmar's entries are from very carefully picking and taken?

300 trades over 4 years, but often as low as 5min timeframe. every week only 2 trades at most were taken.

it takes incredible discipline and persistence for that, if the trades are evenly spreaded out over 4 years.

a loose cannon like me doing 10 entries per week at least......
  • #458
  • Nov 26, 2014 3:37pm Nov 26, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting charvo
am i right to say Fezmar's entries are from very carefully picking and taken? 300 trades over 4 years, but often as low as 5min timeframe. every week only 2 trades at most were taken. it takes incredible discipline and persistence for that, if the trades are evenly spreaded out over 4 years. a loose cannon like me doing 10 entries per week at least......
I suppose he said he now takes 30 trades a week or month
  • #459
  • Nov 26, 2014 7:16pm Nov 26, 2014 7:16pm
Putting my 2 pips in ....

i have an ea that runs High low break outs, i have ran it the last 3 days on three pairs and have broke even 50/50 and have 3 runners ej, eu, gu.

SL = 5 pips and I don't include the spread
5 min charts- but I have the ea set to use the last two bars
move to BE set at 5 pips

The ea will only open one trade in each direction, otherwise I would have a lot more positions open for my runners.
the big problem is that It has opened 40 trades across the 3 pairs in 3 days. Too many traders in my opinion.... Maybe I'll set it to 15m or 30m....
  • #460
  • Nov 26, 2014 8:22pm Nov 26, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting lesuer26
i have an ea that runs High low break outs
So your philosophy is Buy High and Sell Low ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
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