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Trend Trading System

  • #461
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:51am Nov 21, 2014 1:51am
Here's how Gbpusd is looking now..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 44.png Size: 39 KB


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #462
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:54am Nov 21, 2014 4:54am
Quoting fartist
Watch how Crude Oil respects the value zone here or to be more precise 20EMA. Or you could take breakouts to the downside which will play out fine as well. {image} {image} {image} Fartist
hello fartistwas just going through some previous trade setups as an exercise. crude oil had been extremely choppy in the year before the confirmed down trend. looking bak at these charts at what point would you have decided that crude oil was indeed in a down trend. hope you got my question. cheers
  • #463
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:05pm Nov 21, 2014 12:05pm
Hi Rayner:
I know you don't want to put intra day trades here to mainatain this thread's specialty to keep the system simple, less stressful by using higher time frame. I also have a day job and only spend few hours in the evening to place my trade (limit order). I have been using this concept mainly with the weekly trend and placing a order on a hourly chart both for break out and at retracement. I am having a mixed result (not much success so far). I will be interested to see a few examples of your intra day trading so that we can get some idea of your thinking process ( which is great). It doesn'y need to be posted when you are trading. You can post whenever you have some time including weekends. Just an idea. May be you can cover this with one of your great weekly recap videos.

Thanks,
FX_California
Quoting fartist
{quote} Hey Jo, I don't usually post my intra day trades here due to several reasons 1) I don't have time to post intra day charts as i'm actively trading. And should i post, the trade is over and am basically showing charts on hindsight. 2) I believe the most people here are having a day job, thus trading the higher timeframes would be more suited for majority of them here. Hope that clear things up abit fartist
  • #464
  • Nov 22, 2014 4:41am Nov 22, 2014 4:41am
Quoting fartist
{quote} Hi Gonzalon, If you don't mind you could post your trades and charts here. We can analyze it together and see how we can work things out. Sometimes it isn't that you're trading poorly, but rather you're just facing the inevitable draw downs that every trading plan would face. Fartist
Hi Fartist,
Thanks for helping me. I am going to post a quick summary of each trade I took this week without graphs (since I use my ipad/iphone to trade, it is not that easy to paste the graphs):
- GBPJPY: initiated on 13/11 00h when Price (182.326) entered H4 20 EMA area, SL 181.500. Stopped out
- EURJPY: initiated on 21/11 21h when price (147.70) got to H1 50 EMA, SL 146.9. Stopped out
- CADJPY: initiated on 21/11 4h when price (104.000) got to H1 50 EMA, SL 103.3. Active
- EURUSD: initiated on 19/11 21h when price (1.258) got to D1 20/50 EMA area, SL 1.2670. Active
- GBPUSD: initated on 20/11 16h when price (1.5720) got to H4 50 EMA, SL 1.5790. Active
- NZDJPY: initiated on 19/11 2h when price (92.400) got to H1 20/50 EMA SL 91.8. Active
- NZDUSD: initiated on 12/11 20h when price (0.78807) got to D1 20/50 EMA area, SL 0.798. Active
- SI.H5 (Silver): initiated on 17/11 1h when price (16.25) got to D1 20 EMA, SL 16.75. Active
- USDCAD: initiated on 18/11 14h wen price (1.1287) got to D1 20 EMA, SL 1.117. Active
- USDJPY: initiated on 20/11 13h when price (118.28) got to H1 20 EMA, SL 117.2. Active

Wow, it is a big summary! I am looking forward to your comments, I hope this info is enough.
Thanks a lot!
  • #465
  • Nov 22, 2014 5:02am Nov 22, 2014 5:02am
Quoting himeshforex
{quote} hello fartistwas just going through some previous trade setups as an exercise. crude oil had been extremely choppy in the year before the confirmed down trend. looking bak at these charts at what point would you have decided that crude oil was indeed in a down trend. hope you got my question. cheers
Hi Himesh,

As mentioned early in the thread, i typically wait for the EMA on the 3 timeframes to line up before taking my trade.

Even though all 3 timeframes are lined up doesn't mean the trend will continue. It could very well possibly be the end of the trend when i enter, or similarly it could be a start of a very long trend.

The thing is i never know, i can only participate. If i'm wrong, i cut.

But if i'm right, then you know what happens.

However if i'm cutting multiple times in a row, it's a sign that the market is telling me to stay out. It's not trending in my favor yet.

Hope that helps!

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #466
  • Nov 22, 2014 7:41pm Nov 22, 2014 7:41pm
Quoting FX_California
Hi Rayner: I know you don't want to put intra day trades here to mainatain this thread's specialty to keep the system simple, less stressful by using higher time frame. I also have a day job and only spend few hours in the evening to place my trade (limit order). I have been using this concept mainly with the weekly trend and placing a order on a hourly chart both for break out and at retracement. I am having a mixed result (not much success so far). I will be interested to see a few examples of your intra day trading so that we can get some idea...
Hi California,

I appreciate you being so honest about your trading performance. Once you can live up to the fact that your trading is not going in the right direction, then only will you be willing to make the necessary changes. That i applaud you my friend!

Instead of sharing with you my intraday trades, i rather work with you on how you can better trade the higher timeframes.

One element which i mentioned in trend following is "Relative Stregnth'. It is something i use but not mentioned frequently.

If you looked at the charts i usually post, those products are usually 1 of 2 things. The relatively strong one or weak one.

E.g. Notice i'm only concern mainly with usdjpy and gpbusd lately? Why not the other majors like usdcad?

That's because i felt the usdjpy was the relatively strongest pair followed by gbpusd and eurusd.( Well since draghi speech on fri, i would favor eurusd over gbpusd now)

But you see, my choice of pairs are always fluid. Which ever market is the strongest or weakest, they got my attention.

True nzdusd and audusd are in downtrend as well, but i rather short eurusd or gbpusd as they both are relatively weaker.

I hope that helps and aid you in your pair selection.

Last thing is, if you're looking at the trend on weekly chart, i wouldn't advise trading off the 1hour. Instead try the 4hour. You may want to refer to the early materials of this thread on how i use multiple timeframes with a factor of 4 to 6.

Hope this helps you and sorry for the late reply, am busy of late.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #467
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:10am Nov 23, 2014 7:10am
Quoting Gonzalon
{quote} Hi Fartist, Thanks for helping me. I am going to post a quick summary of each trade I took this week without graphs (since I use my ipad/iphone to trade, it is not that easy to paste the graphs): - GBPJPY: initiated on 13/11 00h when Price (182.326) entered H4 20 EMA area, SL 181.500. Stopped out - EURJPY: initiated on 21/11 21h when price (147.70) got to H1 50 EMA, SL 146.9. Stopped out - CADJPY: initiated on 21/11 4h when price (104.000) got to H1 50 EMA, SL 103.3. Active - EURUSD: initiated on 19/11 21h when price (1.258) got to D1 20/50...
Hi Gonzalon,

From what i see is you tend to trade pullbacks in the market. That is perfectly fine here.

One thing i notice is you tend to trade correlated pairs, so as what i mentioned earlier, I would encourage you to select only the strongest and weakest pairs and trade them.

Also, sometimes certain instruments would be more favorable to trade breakouts than pullbacks. You will develop experience in that field as you trade more, but a general guide would be to refer to past price action. Does breakouts work better or pullbacks?

Hope that helps!

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #468
  • Nov 23, 2014 7:26am Nov 23, 2014 7:26am
This week's market analysis..

Inserted Video


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #469
  • Nov 23, 2014 8:39am Nov 23, 2014 8:39am
Quoting fartist
This week's market analysis.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U1Csm8FWZs fartist
Great analysis rayner! Thanks again for doing it every week, they are really helpful. I see u are strongly betting on the usdjpy
  • #470
  • Nov 23, 2014 8:46am Nov 23, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Gonzalon
{quote}Great analysis rayner! Thanks again for doing it every week, they are really helpful. I see u are strongly betting on the usdjpy
You're welcome Gonzalon!

Let me know how your trading works out in the coming weeks.

Best of luck!

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #471
  • Nov 23, 2014 9:06am Nov 23, 2014 9:06am
Ok, I cannot control myself anymore. I m watching this thread from its inception & still I didnt wanted to post single comment until now for a reason that I m not a trend trader myself & anything I post will be really useless stuff in this corner. Although I m not a trend trader but I always read threads which has quality knowledge in them, using it in its entirety or using it in my style is different thing. So, what made me post this comment is the fact that I have spent some time in this forum & I can say mostly we come to meet dickheads & so called successful people who will never bother to help others but only either to sell something or to boast how great they are. And here we have one of the humble & genuine person of FF who is here purely to help others. Your humility is as great as your trading knowledge Mr. Raynar. We hope & pray all the success to you in future & hope & pray that this community have more Fartist For, all the good knowledge you share with others without any expectation in return made me post this comment. Keep it up bro
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #472
  • Nov 23, 2014 11:10pm Nov 23, 2014 11:10pm
Thanks a lot for your good advice...
Quoting fartist
{quote} Hi California, I appreciate you being so honest about your trading performance. Once you can live up to the fact that your trading is not going in the right direction, then only will you be willing to make the necessary changes. That i applaud you my friend! Instead of sharing with you my intraday trades, i rather work with you on how you can better trade the higher timeframes. One element which i mentioned in trend following is "Relative Stregnth'. It is something i use but not mentioned frequently. If you looked at the charts i usually...
  • #473
  • Nov 23, 2014 11:10pm Nov 23, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting fartist
This week's market analysis.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U1Csm8FWZs fartist
Another excellent recap...
  • #474
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:23am Nov 25, 2014 10:23am
Quoting fartist
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting" — Jesse Livermore Entries are not going to earn you a single dime or cause your downfall but your exits will. The importance of exits are usually neglected and left to the last or entirely forgotten which should not be the case. So let's get started.. Here are some of the exits one could consider in your trend trading approach. 1) A fixed ATR This exit basically takes you out of a trade when price retrace X ATR against you. This is a mechanical approach to manage...
Hello Fartist,

About Exits, i use 30 SMA, 50 SMA and 100SMA moving averages. Using crossovers to exit, do i exit a trade when the 50MA crosses 100MA or when the 30MA crosses 50MA? Also for - "Price action" do i exit a trade when the price crosses 100MA (The slow MA). thanks
  • #475
  • Nov 25, 2014 7:45pm Nov 25, 2014 7:45pm
Quoting FxSaint
Ok, I cannot control myself anymore. I m watching this thread from its inception & still I didnt wanted to post single comment until now for a reason that I m not a trend trader myself & anything I post will be really useless stuff in this corner. Although I m not a trend trader but I always read threads which has quality knowledge in them, using it in its entirety or using it in my style is different thing. So, what made me post this comment is the fact that I have spent some time in this forum & I can say mostly we come to meet dickheads & so...
Hi Saint,

Thank you for your extremely kind words. It's really heart warming to receive such feedback and definitely made my day

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #476
  • Nov 25, 2014 7:46pm Nov 25, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting FX_California
Thanks a lot for your good advice... {quote}
You're most welcome.

Let me know how the relative strength aspect is working out for you.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #477
  • Nov 25, 2014 7:47pm Nov 25, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting rawgo
{quote} Hello Fartist, About Exits, i use 30 SMA, 50 SMA and 100SMA moving averages. Using crossovers to exit, do i exit a trade when the 50MA crosses 100MA or when the 30MA crosses 50MA? Also for - "Price action" do i exit a trade when the price crosses 100MA (The slow MA). thanks
Hi Rawgo,

There's no hard and fast rules here for exits.

I can't say which works better here. Rather which would fit your trading psychology better?

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #478
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:49pm Nov 25, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting fartist
GBPUSD watching closely.. {image}
Stop out
  • #479
  • Nov 26, 2014 10:05am Nov 26, 2014 10:05am
Hi Rayner,

Thank you for your thread and a very good looking strategy!
I read all reply and all video and picture. I will try to learn that in the future.
I have got a question:
What will you doing if your limit order is not open, because the price is not reach the input data, but the trend is following?
I hope I am talking clean, and all the people understand me!
Have a nice day!
  • #480
  • Nov 27, 2014 5:21am Nov 27, 2014 5:21am
Hi fartist,

my name is David and your outlook is something I would like to take on board...
I am curious if this trade would fit your style?
Or is the 50 ema not slopping up enough on the Daily chart

Sorry I am not sure how I can make the charts look clearer or bigger, this will be one of the very posts I have done on Forex Factory


http://i1298.photobucket.com/albums/...psb3235182.jpg
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