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  • Post #401
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  • Nov 25, 2014 3:35pm Nov 25, 2014 3:35pm
  •  AlbinaGrande
  • | Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 260 Posts
Hi Fez,

Perhaps you would permit me a Clinicians perspective on your remarkable Thread.

It strikes me that some readers are trying to understand your approach without realizing that Clinicians tend to approach problem solving somewhat differently at times than Physical Scientists. Most everyone has heard that Medicine is an Art not a Science, not withstanding the recent struggles in the US to square the circle with ObamaCare, but as a practical matter a great deal of guess work – neither Art nor Science - is involved until a clear solution evolves – hopefully with the patient well served at the end of the day.

Frequently we start with our best guess, based on experience, the literature but mostly on the guidance of others in the beginning. In time it is possible to branch out on our own but always with a reservoir of experience in our "back pocket." All of the Meta analysis in the world is of interest but rarely solves problems at the individual level in the moment when it counts the most.

Gifted Surgeons, for example, will innovate based largely on a gut feeling. Once the procedure is showing promise then comes progressively more detailed investigations - frequently to help others understand, promote ones interest or more commonly for junior attendings their Chairman’s interest etc.

In other words we do what seems to make sense, and if it works out, we push ahead. Nothing more complicated than that. I sense something of the same here in your Thread.

Strong work, keep it coming,

AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
 
 
  • Post #402
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 4:11pm Nov 25, 2014 4:11pm
  •  Kouroushi
  • | Joined May 2014 | Status: Member | 188 Posts
Quoting stt
Disliked
{quote} Since we are talking about math for a random market (and not real market) here, I would like to correct few things. I think there are subtle errors in your argument / calculation in this. (we are ignoring transaction costs altogether for simplicity) for a random market, probability of reaching 200 pips profit with 5 pips stop loss will be 1 in 41 trades ( 5/(200+5) = 1/41 and not 1 in 40 trades). So close but not exactly 1 in 40. you can say out of 205 trades, 5 will reach 200 pip target. what is correct that 50% of the trade will reach...
Ignored
So true,
But with these calculation though precise, is there any method or strategy that its pnl would be +1pip? of course not and Fez's method is no exception. If there was we could sleep & make money
 
 
  • Post #403
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 4:28pm Nov 25, 2014 4:28pm
  •  sshhmmuueell
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Member | 138 Posts
In my opinion

Part of the ideal here is, would you bet against somebody if you can take only small profits most of the time ,but the other guy can take gigantic profits on rare occasions or would you like the other way around.
 
 
  • Post #404
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  • Nov 25, 2014 5:09pm Nov 25, 2014 5:09pm
  •  PipMeUp
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Member | 1,305 Posts
Quoting artem_t
Disliked
{quote} Hi, PipMeUp! Could you, please, explain a bit more about this point? Which exactly statistic of Fez's method did you use to make this conclusion? Thank you in advance! Artem
Ignored
www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7893687#post7893687
Fez said he has approximately a winrate of 7% and a RR of 40. I made the maths in hit-or-miss, no SL trail to BE.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
 
 
  • Post #405
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  • Nov 25, 2014 5:12pm Nov 25, 2014 5:12pm
  •  spyderman
  • Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Snaggin' Some Pips | 2,156 Posts
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Disliked
Hi Fez, Perhaps you would permit me a Clinicians perspective on your remarkable Thread. It strikes me that some readers are trying to understand your approach without realizing that Clinicians tend to approach problem solving somewhat differently at times than Physical Scientists. Most everyone has heard that Medicine is an Art not a Science, not withstanding the recent struggles in the US to square the circle with ObamaCare, but as a practical matter a great deal of guess work – neither Art nor Science - is involved until a clear solution evolves...
Ignored
Interesting perspective...
 
 
  • Post #406
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 5:16pm Nov 25, 2014 5:16pm
  •  jditch1
  • | Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 77 Posts
Hi...did you think about all those tricky brokers who are just targeting our tinny SLoses.... could be a factor in the strategy ? Looking to launch in this great method.....
 
 
  • Post #407
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  • Nov 25, 2014 5:27pm Nov 25, 2014 5:27pm
  •  fezmar
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 90 Posts
Quoting lorbax
Disliked
{quote} Thank you, I really appreciate the constant and humble support you provide. I like the arbitrary part of the trading, economy is not a pure scientific subject, but more a social/humanistic one. I have an extra question for you if you don't mind, connected to your reply - when it comes the time the main trend starts to reverse and you notice some winners getting back to BE, you said you decide to 'cash-in' some positions, maybe 2-3 or 4, out of 5 (hypothesis!) and this I believe it's the crucial point, different from other milliped schemes...
Ignored
Appreciate your kind words.

I usually cash in my largest position, with the next one I cash in being my smallest position. By smallest I mean anything over 1:5 or so r:r, anything smaller and I don't even count it as a position.

My reasoning here is that by leaving my medium sized positions I have cashed in my larger ones and so these are no longer at any risk, because these would cause me the biggest pain if they were to get taken out for nothing. I also take out my smaller ones as they have a reduced 'survivability' and so will be more likely to be taken out on a pullback.

Leaving the medium sized positions I know that I will not be too upset if they get taken out at breakeven, but they are still far away enough to allow the market to pullback and resume the trend without being taken out.

Fez
 
 
  • Post #408
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  • Nov 25, 2014 5:28pm Nov 25, 2014 5:28pm
  •  fezmar
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 90 Posts
Quoting jditch1
Disliked
Hi...did you think about all those tricky brokers who are just targeting our tinny SLoses.... could be a factor in the strategy ? Looking to launch in this great method.....
Ignored
I trade through an ECN. My broker does not take the opposite side of my trades.

Fez
 
 
  • Post #409
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 5:30pm Nov 25, 2014 5:30pm
  •  fezmar
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 90 Posts
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Disliked
Hi Fez, Perhaps you would permit me a Clinicians perspective on your remarkable Thread. It strikes me that some readers are trying to understand your approach without realizing that Clinicians tend to approach problem solving somewhat differently at times than Physical Scientists. Most everyone has heard that Medicine is an Art not a Science, not withstanding the recent struggles in the US to square the circle with ObamaCare, but as a practical matter a great deal of guess work – neither Art nor Science - is involved until a clear solution evolves...
Ignored
A beautiful comparison. I can also attest to the point you made about the large role that experience plays in a physician's decisions. Most of the times the consultants make decisions that seem completely irrational to me and I cannot find the answer to their actions anywhere in my lectures, but once it is laid out in front of me it makes perfect sense as to why they did what they did.

It's a pleasure to have you in this thread.

Fez
 
 
  • Post #410
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  • Nov 25, 2014 5:34pm Nov 25, 2014 5:34pm
  •  lorbax
  • | Joined May 2010 | Status: I steal few pips | 396 Posts
Quoting fezmar
Disliked
{quote} Appreciate your kind words. I usually cash in my largest position, with the next one I cash in being my smallest position. By smallest I mean anything over 1:5 or so r:r, anything smaller and I don't even count it as a position. My reasoning here is that by leaving my medium sized positions I have cashed in my larger ones and so these are no longer at any risk, because these would cause me the biggest pain if they were to get taken out for nothing. I also take out my smaller ones as they have a reduced 'survivability' and so will be more...
Ignored
Wonderful, very nice view!
cheers mate!
Lorenzo
 
 
  • Post #411
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 7:40pm Nov 25, 2014 7:40pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
when I read the thread I remember one of my early codes.
I dig the inventory and founded. it was from 2012

its using the same concept of trading with lets say 50/1 RRR
when its coded I didnt code the SL to BE
yesterday I did it

there are 2 BT graphs showing
the original code and the modified one with the BE

EURUSD 2000 - 2014

Attached Image


ver 2012
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Name: StrategyTester-m.gif
Size: 8 KB


ver 2014
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Size: 7 KB
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #412
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 7:45pm Nov 25, 2014 7:45pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
the concept is correct and may be its one of the correct concept for Longtrem Forex Trading.
the issues are;

a) when you look at charts how many 1,000+ pips run you can see. not much means rare
b) SL and moving SL to BE levels should be determined with BT to find the optimum value
c) the thread original value 5 pips sounds little too tight to me
d) while system will have consistant losers the MM is very important or you can lose the account before you hit the big run

GL
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #413
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:37pm Nov 25, 2014 8:37pm
  •  joelmusicman
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 65 Posts
Quoting MAM.Trader
Disliked
the concept is correct and may be its one of the correct concept for Longtrem Forex Trading. the issues are; a) when you look at charts how many 1,000+ pips run you can see. not much means rare b) SL and moving SL to BE levels should be determined with BT to find the optimum value c) the thread original value 5 pips sounds little too tight to me d) while system will have consistant losers the MM is very important or you can lose the account before you hit the big run GL
Ignored
a) true, but the theory is that eventually you'd have multiple positions riding the 1000 pip move so the gains would be exponential.
b) Possibly, but that should go hand in hand with the method of entry.
c) Perhaps, but the tiny losses is essential to the strategy.
d) Agreed. Risking 0.1% per trade (or perhaps even less!) seems very appropriate with this process.

I think your version 2014 looks like a good candidate for putting up a live account! The real question is how much slippage will cost over the long run with the SL, like I noticed happened with one of Spyders UJ trades this morning during that fast spike.

In a real account I'd also take some steps like stopping new positions 3 hours before markets close, and closing out any positions with <50 pips gain to avoid adverse gaps on open.
 
 
  • Post #414
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:49pm Nov 25, 2014 8:49pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
every 5 pip loss with average 3 pips cost total will be 8 pips.
so this will collect money at the end.
I dont use my codes for trading those are for testing purpose. to see if the algorithm works.

the last one.
you have to have a good broker to trade with. while some trades will run may be for years and those are the profit ones. so losing those will kill system and years of work.

doubling account in 2-3 months doesnt sounds right to me.

GL

Quoting joelmusicman
Disliked
{quote} a) true, but the theory is that eventually you'd have multiple positions riding the 1000 pip move so the gains would be exponential. b) Possibly, but that should go hand in hand with the method of entry. c) Perhaps, but the tiny losses is essential to the strategy. d) Agreed. Risking 0.1% per trade (or perhaps even less!) seems very appropriate with this process. I think your version 2014 looks like a good candidate for putting up a live account! The real question is how much slippage will cost over the long run with the SL, like I noticed...
Ignored
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #415
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:52pm Nov 25, 2014 8:52pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
and the really real last one

the conventional entry algorithms did not worked. at least for my code.
this has a totally weird enty code based on tick momentum but modified to 1H chart bars.

totally insane code..... so I could never traded it manually

GL

Quoting MAM.Trader
Disliked
every 5 pip loss with average 3 pips cost total will be 8 pips. so this will collect money at the end. I dont use my codes for trading those are for testing purpose. to see if the algorithm works. the last one. you have to have a good broker to trade with. while some trades will run may be for years and those are the profit ones. so losing those will kill system and years of work. doubling account in 2-3 months doesnt sounds right to me. GL {quote}
Ignored
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #416
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:03pm Nov 25, 2014 10:03pm
  •  joelmusicman
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 65 Posts
Quoting MAM.Trader
Disliked
and the really real last one the conventional entry algorithms did not worked. at least for my code. this has a totally weird enty code based on tick momentum but modified to 1H chart bars. totally insane code..... so I could never traded it manually GL {quote}
Ignored
Another thing I forgot about: with such a tight stop, the fact that metatrader simulates tick data from 1m could have a dramatic impact on backtest results (a hypothetical 1000 pip winner might have actually been stopped out in reality).
 
 
  • Post #417
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:32pm Nov 25, 2014 10:32pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
a) code has bigger then 5 pips
b) this is for testing purpose
c) High and Lows doesnt change when back testing what ever the TF is but yes sometimes it wont work correct

Quoting joelmusicman
Disliked
{quote} Another thing I forgot about: with such a tight stop, the fact that metatrader simulates tick data from 1m could have a dramatic impact on backtest results (a hypothetical 1000 pip winner might have actually been stopped out in reality).
Ignored
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #418
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:34pm Nov 25, 2014 10:34pm
  •  MAM.Trader
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2014 | 1,220 Posts
you are too optimistic

Quoting joelmusicman
Disliked
{quote} a) true, but the theory is that eventually you'd have multiple positions riding the 1000 pip move so the gains would be exponential. b) Possibly, but that should go hand in hand with the method of entry. c) Perhaps, but the tiny losses is essential to the strategy. d) Agreed. Risking 0.1% per trade (or perhaps even less!) seems very appropriate with this process. I think your version 2014 looks like a good candidate for putting up a live account! The real question is how much slippage will cost over the long run...
Ignored
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
 
 
  • Post #419
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:37pm Nov 25, 2014 10:37pm
  •  RedLineFred
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 327 Posts
A suggestion only, not to deviate from the concept, but if we have a fair percentage of trades moving to BE and then on to healthy R levels only to turn back and close out at BE, why not slide the SL up 5 pips once we reach a point we are happy with and at least when they do close out we offset one of the earlier loosing trades. This should increase performance overall.
" check out The Traders Outpost "
 
 
  • Post #420
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:40pm Nov 25, 2014 10:40pm
  •  joelmusicman
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 65 Posts
Quoting MAM.Trader
Disliked
you are too optimistic {quote}
Ignored
Not necessarily... Just look at USDJPY the past few months. With how fast it's been rocketing up without any notable retracement (yet), I'm sure a few well-timed buys could still be open from 108 or so.
 
 
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