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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,681
  • Edited 2:55am Nov 24, 2014 1:49am | Edited 2:55am
Morning, still long from 184.469 up a few ... as long as 184 holds, it looks like a good chance to me.

Edit: Cashing here at resistance since I have to rush out the office for some time and cannot watch.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,682
  • Nov 24, 2014 4:25am Nov 24, 2014 4:25am
Now shorting 184.968 for a possible Reversal - the rest seems to be still asleep xD
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,683
  • Nov 24, 2014 5:59am Nov 24, 2014 5:59am
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  • #16,684
  • Nov 24, 2014 6:36am Nov 24, 2014 6:36am
Ok, no reversal, so a continuation is likely. Will place bids at former decision points.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,685
  • Nov 24, 2014 5:30pm Nov 24, 2014 5:30pm
Hmmm.... quite a bit of movement for the first day of the week. Looks like the bears didn't want to challenge the bulls on their move.

Anyways, a Kuroda speech is coming out in about an hour and a half. Will wait and see what happens with that. Might trigger a big move during the early asian session.
  • #16,686
  • Nov 24, 2014 6:50pm Nov 24, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
Hmmm.... quite a bit of movement for the first day of the week. Looks like the bears didn't want to challenge the bulls on their move. Anyways, a Kuroda speech is coming out in about an hour and a half. Will wait and see what happens with that. Might trigger a big move during the early asian session.
hopefully we are still bullish to hit new record highs...
  • #16,687
  • Nov 24, 2014 7:12pm Nov 24, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} hopefully we are still bullish to hit new record highs...
Yeah, right. Waiting for my projected target 190 I closed my longs though just yesterday.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #16,688
  • Nov 24, 2014 7:15pm Nov 24, 2014 7:15pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} hopefully we are still bullish to hit new record highs...
IMO, to hell with the new highs. This pair has been overbought for over a year and a half now. Bring on the correction. We can dabble with 200.00+ territory once Carney finally gets off his butt and raises the interest rate. But that's quite a ways away. First he hinted at spring, now it's looking more like summer/fall of 2015. The BoE doesn't have enough gas in the tank for a move like that. The British economy isn't faring as well as they've hoped it would.

Looks like Kuroda just hit a positive note with his speech. Meaning a nice big bearish move right now. Possibly the start of a downward cycle, but it's still a bit too early to tell in the day right now. Bulls have had their fun, let the bears pull the market back to where it belongs.
  • #16,689
  • Nov 24, 2014 7:21pm Nov 24, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} IMO, to hell with the new highs. This pair has been overbought for over a year and a half now. Bring on the correction. We can dabble with 200.00+ territory once Carney finally gets off his butt and raises the interest rate. But that's quite a ways away. First he hinted at spring, now it's looking more like summer/fall of 2015. The BoE doesn't have enough gas in the tank for a move like that. The British economy isn't faring as well as they've hoped it would. Looks like Kuroda just hit a positive note with his speech. Meaning a nice big...
so your saying 70-80 trillion of QE isnt enough to devalue the yen?
Believe your right, till proven wrong. Doubt is the greatest enemy.
  • #16,690
  • Nov 24, 2014 7:22pm Nov 24, 2014 7:22pm
Here's a cutout of a recent post I did a few minutes ago in the USD/JPY section. This'll help any newcomers with what's going on right now in the GBP/JPY.

Here's a good snippet of Kuroda's speech that best expresses the effects of the news on the currency.

"At the same time, this would be a part of the process of having the fruits of the correction of the yen appreciation and of overcoming deflation spread through the whole economy. Such progress should not be stopped now. To achieve the price stability target, the Bank has been taking "action" and will continue to do so"

This, combined with the need for correction before new highs, will increase bearish momentum (i.e. we're going to see a retracement for the next few hours on intraday standards)


And because I know someone will ask, I'll say this right now: YES, the yen is fucked. They've announced a new QE, fell into technical recession, and the U.S./U.K. are doing far better. But that doesn't mean we'll see a continuous rise without corrections and retracements in the range of 100s of pips. Dips in prices are inevitable, and only a fool would expect otherwise.
  • #16,691
  • Nov 24, 2014 7:27pm Nov 24, 2014 7:27pm
This pair is on hydraulics and I think its just better to wait till dollar/yen gets to 120 and see what happens. Any long term shorting plan will really just be gambling at this point... The time traders lose money mostly is not "sitting on their hands" and thinking that price cant get any higher only to see another 3% added . just my 2 cents
  • #16,692
  • Nov 24, 2014 8:06pm Nov 24, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
This pair is on hydraulics and I think its just better to wait till dollar/yen gets to 120 and see what happens. Any long term shorting plan will really just be gambling at this point... The time traders lose money mostly is not "sitting on their hands" and thinking that price cant get any higher only to see another 3% added . just my 2 cents
I have to concur here, other than some short lived opportunities to this point for some quick pips to the downside there isn't (in my opinion) a defined signal,,, might we be close? maybe and maybe not but Im sure a lot of coin is being chewed up trying the short side. I have to wonder if it will be like the days of old when this thing finally rolls over and there will be no mistake the big money is leaving the long side. I know I am running tighter stops than normal just incase.
  • #16,693
  • Nov 24, 2014 8:10pm Nov 24, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} IMO, to hell with the new highs. This pair has been overbought for over a year and a half now. Bring on the correction. We can dabble with 200.00+ territory once Carney finally gets off his butt and raises the interest rate. But that's quite a ways away. First he hinted at spring, now it's looking more like summer/fall of 2015. The BoE doesn't have enough gas in the tank for a move like that. The British economy isn't faring as well as they've hoped it would. Looks like Kuroda just hit a positive note with his speech. Meaning a nice big...
With elections coming Carney isn't going to say anything crazy yet... so lets just enjoy watching Kuroda send us airborne soon!! You can always buy on the dips.. it's the best way forward!!
  • #16,694
  • Nov 24, 2014 8:38pm Nov 24, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting Vermillion
Here's a cutout of a recent post I did a few minutes ago in the USD/JPY section. This'll help any newcomers with what's going on right now in the GBP/JPY. Here's a good snippet of Kuroda's speech that best expresses the effects of the news on the currency. "At the same time, this would be a part of the process of having the fruits of the correction of the yen appreciation and of overcoming deflation spread through the whole economy. Such progress should not be stopped now. To achieve the price stability target, the Bank has been taking "action"...
I disagreed with some of your opinions.
Based on the speech of kuroda - the message is clear (they are committed to depreciate and inflate the yen in long term) - there aint any hint on short term.
Secondly, announcement on a "new" QE and fell in recession is largely due to sale tax hike. When sale tax increased back in 2nd Quarter, there aint an increase in QE. In short run, there is definitely negative impact on GDP which indirectly cost JP to fell in "recession". I understand your meaning of comparsion inversely to US/UK.

as for the rest of the post, i think is well explained! Good
  • #16,695
  • Nov 24, 2014 10:59pm Nov 24, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting saoldric
{quote} so your saying 70-80 trillion of QE isnt enough to devalue the yen?
First off, I'm looking at the NZD/JPY as a comparison. That pair was riding high for a bit, then took a 500 pip drop before moving up to the 92.00 area.

They've been doing QE for a long time now. A very long time. They increased how much they were doing by like 20 trillion yen or something. They didn't add an additional 70-80 tril. Look at the monthly charts for this pairing over the past year and a half. Overbought.

It takes two to tango to bring a pairing to a new highs and lows. Having the yen weaken is one thing. You need a strengthening of the major, and a weakening of the minor to achieve that. Only a near-collapse of the japanese economy would push it to the 200+ area.

Look back at the price it was at in say, 2005. Look at the BoE's interest rate. There is a correlation between the rate and the value of the currency. Interest rates roughly reflect the economic situation of a nation. It's the biggest sign of economic stability and prosperity.

What we've seen over the past couple of weeks, is fundamentals based on the yen, and sentiment. There's no british news backing it up. It's either been minor improvements on some news releases, or lower-than-expected news from things like their meeting minutes releases, carney speeches, etc. They were hoping for a rate hike in the spring, now it's been pushed back since the economic data was weaker than they had hoped for, which sours the overall tone of the pound value.

Currency values don't go up and down just because of magic and rainbows. There has to be some solid fundamentals to warrant moving to new highs/lows.

This is all my opinion at the moment. I mean, things can change at anytime. Financial scandals, wars, etc. But given what I'm seeing right now, it will move for a correction before moving further upwards. Possibly not for another month or two, but the signs are there.
  • #16,696
  • Nov 24, 2014 11:21pm Nov 24, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} First off, I'm looking at the NZD/JPY as a comparison. That pair was riding high for a bit, then took a 500 pip drop before moving up to the 92.00 area. They've been doing QE for a long time now. A very long time. They increased how much they were doing by like 20 trillion yen or something. They didn't add an additional 70-80 tril. Look at the monthly charts for this pairing over the past year and a half. Overbought. It takes two to tango to bring a pairing to a new highs and lows. Having the yen weaken is one thing. You need a strengthening...
im aware how much QE they are doing, i know they didnt add an additional 70-80. i never said they did. They are ramping up to 80 trillion. Overbought conditions? yeah, in a normal market environment there are adequate retracements, but it doesnt happen all the time. Take a look at EURUSD the past few months, there was no real retracement as of yet. Higher time frames get more power over lower time frame retracements and can push off retracements for quite awhile.

JPY has been extremely weak across the board on ALL pairs. News from other countries doesnt matter much when BOJ comes out and says, yeah we are going to add 20 trillion to our QE program. thats not a small matter to match for other countries.

im not saying we wont get a retracements, but i dont think at this time we will get anymore than 400-500 pips at the most.
Believe your right, till proven wrong. Doubt is the greatest enemy.
  • #16,697
  • Nov 25, 2014 10:19am Nov 25, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} ​​ You wanted a correction? Unless this thing makes a new high or any case gets over 187.5 or so, I think we've been sitting in a correction since about 166 or 174.8, thirteen months ago. Whilst a move over 187.5 ish would prove me wrong, I think GJ will slowly fade over coming weeks and retrace at least 38% (of the entire move) or maybe more. A loss of 177/178 would support this argument, followed eventually by a loss of 174.5, 170.5 etc etc. It may take many weeks. A crash is undesirable, but a full on move down would stop...
Which is exactly what I'm looking for.

I don't really care if it goes bear or bull, as long as it goes bear or bull. It's not so much the quieter days when not as much movement is happening, it's that there's a few days of little action, then a big whip one way, followed by a snap back on the next day. It's just being so damn jagged and erratic to the point where I'm just passing up on most trades, since as soon as I catch on to one movement, it goes the other way. Hell, this thing has passed up and down through one of FX-Ray's DP's for days now. Never moves to hit another, just keeps moving through one point over and over.

Was hoping to have a holly, jolly christmas this year, but if this keeps up, there's not going to be enough profits to warrant withdrawing some money from the ol' account.
  • #16,698
  • Nov 26, 2014 7:01am Nov 26, 2014 7:01am
In case someone is wondering why price action is so choppy currently, the answer can be found between late September and early October 2008. Once this new base is completed we will advance higher. 198.00 is next.
  • #16,699
  • Edited 6:04pm Nov 26, 2014 5:48pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting SirMcPip
In case someone is wondering why price action is so choppy currently, the answer can be found between late September and early October 2008. Once this new base is completed we will advance higher. 198.00 is next.
I assume others are aware of that area and the nightmare it caused. Right now it sits at 185.78 and IMHO, only a loss now of the 185.1/3 pivot would have it down again in a much broader consolidation, although break of 183.8 AND 183.3 would be needed to signal the start of a retracement.

It may sound silly, but there remains the possibility that it has travelled all this way from 116 only to meet its nexus - meaning that the entire move up for three years could have been a correction in itself (or at least part thereof). Don't overlook the fact that, in addition to the top of channel that stopped it at 163, it's also pretty much up against the TL running north from 118.1 that was tested in Feb 2010, dropped out of furiously in April then spent the next 4 months testing in April ~ August 2010.

.... Which is why moves up to 187x still can't be ruled out (actually expected) ... but that only a solid break over the 188 area would have have it up into the '90s on this run.
  • #16,700
  • Nov 27, 2014 1:41am Nov 27, 2014 1:41am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I assume others are aware of that area and the nightmare it caused. Right now it sits at 185.78 and IMHO, only a loss now of the 185.1/3 pivot would have it down again in a much broader consolidation, although break of 183.8 AND 183.3 would be needed to signal the start of a retracement. It may sound silly, but there remains the possibility that it has travelled all this way from 116 only to meet its nexus - meaning that the entire move up for three years could have been a correction in itself (or at least part thereof). Don't overlook the...
I aso assume that there are traders that are aware of this area but i also know that many are confused because they dont look past the hourly chart which i think is an unfortunate fact of retail trading. The reason for that is that most have a problem with excessive leverage. But that is beside the point.
Coming back to Pound Yen. I am not disputing what you are saying. My point is that all these things that are being used by most retail traders like Fibo Levels, Trend Lines, Support and Resistance might cause a short term reaction(relative to the time frame being used) but have no real impact on the underlying dynamics of the market, dynamics which are basically a cause and effect of supply and demand caused by mostly political and connected economical reasons. As such i dont believe that Cable will decrease in value as an improving British economy is creating the demand that will propel Pound Yen to new highs. Keep in mind that the British Empire is now in major competition with the BRICS countries as seen with the propaganda Blitz against mainly Russia. The times of a free lunch are over.
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