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The similarity system

  • #13,021
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:02am Nov 22, 2014 8:02am
Lol.. I just learn this for 2 weeks from this thread, from my friend Vlady and from wikipedia with my limited knowledge and my bad English, then create my indicators.. base on Rossler and Quadric ...,

no wonder I really confuse when read this latest discussion.. something simple but wrap it with hi tech conversations..lol.
100 % probability is still probability.. that's it.
but in forex with only simple 2 options up or down, it should be more easier than poker...
MTH
  • #13,022
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:12am Nov 22, 2014 8:12am
Quoting Kiads
Lol.. I just learn this for 2 weeks from this thread, from my friend Vlady and from wikipedia with my limited knowledge and my bad English, then create my indicators.. base on Rossler and Quadric ..., no wonder I really confuse when read this latest discussion.. something simple but wrap it with hi tech conversations..lol. 100 % probability is still probability.. that's it. but in forex with only simple 2 options up or down, it should be more easier than poker... MTH

so the guys name is actually Roessler

and what was your point, when I may ask?
  • #13,023
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:25am Nov 22, 2014 8:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} so the guys name is actually Roessler and what was your point, when I may ask?
No Point..
but when you see this chart don't you think you stil can't trade it successfully ?
even with all 'visual' help there ?
Why make it so difficult when we can do it with simple way.. ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD Renko Sub-Sequencer and TZ.png Size: 358 KB


Transient or Recurrent is just surface things..
No one will reveal completely full in public.. lol
MTH
  • #13,024
  • Nov 22, 2014 8:32am Nov 22, 2014 8:32am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} May I give you my 2 cents? The probalility of what the ZT zone is closed in H bars is even lower !!! May I explain? 1/ The indicator give us the ratio of 97/3 (or 98/2, or 99/1, if you like). What does it mean? IT meas that the probability of what the TZ is closed is 97%. WHEN? it should be in H bars, should not it? NOT! (I will explain a little bit later) So, WHEN? - in 5 mins, 5 hours, 5 months and so on. Moreover, you should NOTE, you can see that the indicator gives you "a window of probability taking" that is from 1000 to 2500 bars....
We must be talking about different things here. I’m pretty sure about that if I read your signature.

The white arrows on the chart below mean that the possible TZ is taken out within H bars. The red and yellow arrows mean that the possible TZ is not taken out within H bars, so it became a real TZ.

H=30 on this chart and there are 8 colored arrows, 44 arrows are white. Whichever random chosen chart I put up this difference between the colored and white arrows are approximately the same. And that is not 48,5%.

For the record, I’m only talking about end bar TZ’s here, because I think that mid bar TZ’s have a low probability to be taken out in strong trends, in other words I think one can better trade against them and hunting the created high or low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYM12.png Size: 45 KB
  • #13,025
  • Edited 10:32am Nov 22, 2014 8:39am | Edited 10:32am
good luck
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #13,026
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:03am Nov 22, 2014 9:03am
Quoting Kiads
{quote} No Point.. but when you see this chart don't you think you stil can't trade it successfully ? even with all 'visual' help there ? Why make it so difficult when we can do it with simple way.. ? {image} Transient or Recurrent is just surface things.. No one will reveal completely full in public.. lol MTH

Yeah, that is the point: nothing to reveal. There is simply no hidden germ to be found.


Presenting me now, after all what was said, such a chart, I have to say, you have not understand what was laid out earlier.


If you really prefer the simple way, a few hand drawn supply/demand lines would have done the trick also
  • #13,027
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:21am Nov 22, 2014 9:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yeah, that is the point: nothing to reveal. There is simply no hidden germ to be found. Presenting me now, after all what was said, such a chart, I have to say, you have not understand what was laid out earlier. If you really prefer the simple way, a few hand drawn supply/demand lines would have done the trick also
with all due respect, it seems you have a personal problem with the concepts that have been developed on this thread. Its obviouse to anyone that has read the concepts presented here- that you have no clue!

Like I said its obviouse!! so you can keep posting and regergitating that we all have fooled our selfs and that only you can see the truth and we are just looking at S and D or R & S or somthing else. So keep regurgitating for your own sake for most of use are tired of hearing how brillant and insightfull you are.

Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #13,028
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:27am Nov 22, 2014 9:27am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yeah, that is the point: nothing to reveal. There is simply no hidden germ to be found. Presenting me now, after all what was said, such a chart, I have to say, you have not understand what was laid out earlier. If you really prefer the simple way, a few hand drawn supply/demand lines would have done the trick also
Thank You, and please read my signature..
  • #13,029
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:27am Nov 22, 2014 9:27am
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} with all due respect, it seems you have a personal problem with the concepts that have been developed on this thread. Its obviouse to anyone that has read the concepts presented here- that you have no clue! Like I said its obviouse!! so you can keep posting and regergitating that we all have fooled our selfs and that only you can see the truth and we are just looking at S and D or R & S or somthing else. So keep regurgitating for your own sake for most of use are tired of hearing how brillant and insightfull you are. Regards
  • #13,030
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:33am Nov 22, 2014 9:33am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} We must be talking about different things here. I’m pretty sure about that if I read your signature. The white arrows on the chart below mean that the possible TZ is taken out within H bars. The red and yellow arrows mean that the possible TZ is not taken out within H bars, so it became a real TZ. H=30 on this chart and there are 8 colored arrows, 44 arrows are white. Whichever random chosen chart I put up this difference between the colored and white arrows are approximately the same. And that is not 48,5%. For the record, I’m only talking...
Of course we are talking about different things.

Your all white arrows (each of them in order of appearance) are reccurent already since the price was going up and doing its job. Each time the white extremum was formed was at the ratio of 50/50 (in terms of probabilities) to be trancient what in the end happened to your red arrows.

If you can see your white arrow for the first time, you should know two things - the price has momentum that means the price goes on further in the given direction and the price should take its volume at all these levels. For these reasons I do not personally need any indicators to buy in this case, when I see the first extremum after an impulse has arrived (your first white arrow). But the volumes at these price levels dissapear while the price goes upper. That is why your red arrow comes to view eventually.

In turn, I am speaking about the case when your red arrow is already formed, let us say, "virtually in mind", but the PTZ is still being formed. The problem is that each bar coming in to our view alienates us from the TZ being formed. I emperically found that the first 10-12 bars (those 30% mentioned) give me almost surely a reason not to enter the market in the direction the price goes to the PTZ. I'd rather find an opportunity to sell in these conditions.

The only significance of the indicator is that it gives us the zones where the price goes in for the first time, as these zones are the subject for the price to be in there once again. But the reason of this IS NOT a probability value, BUT the volume that should be worked out by the price.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #13,031
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:33am Nov 22, 2014 9:33am
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} with all due respect, it seems you have a personal problem with the concepts that have been developed on this thread. Its obviouse to anyone that has read the concepts presented here- that you have no clue! Like I said its obviouse!! so you can keep posting and regergitating that we all have fooled our selfs and that only you can see the truth and we are just looking at S and D or R & S or somthing else. So keep regurgitating for your own sake for most of use are tired of hearing how brillant and insightfull you are. Regards
That is exactly what is going on in this thread. infinitus is not the only one by the way. I'm not meaning Dr. Phoenix here.
  • #13,032
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:43am Nov 22, 2014 9:43am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Of course we are talking about different things. Your all white arrows (each of them in order of appearance) are reccurent already since the price was going up and doing its job. Each time the white extremum was formed was at the ratio of 50/50 (in terms of probabilities) to be trancient what in the end happened to your red arrows. If you can see your white arrow for the first time, you should know two things - the price has momentum that means the price goes on further in the given direction and the price should take its volume at all these...
Okay, thanks for the clear response, Dr Phoenix
  • #13,033
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:50am Nov 22, 2014 9:50am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} In turn, I am speaking about the case when your red arrow is already formed, let us say, "virtually in mind", but the PTZ is still being formed. The problem is that each bar coming in to our view alienates us from the TZ being formed. I emperically found that the first 10-12 bars (those 30% mentioned) give me almost surely a reason not to enter the market in the direction the price goes to the PTZ. I'd rather find an opportunity to sell in these conditions. The only significance of the indicator is that it gives us the zones where the price...
What you are talking about (fractal zone becoming repulsive to price, ie. a valid s/r level) is still perfectly quantifiable with the RecurrenceStatistic indicator, I have written about it several times, given a formula to estimate the probability of zone clearance if it hasn't been cleared in x bars, and have even proposed a simple strategy based on it here in the thread. Such low probability zones one can use as stop loss levels.

Consider a simple strategy based on the two opposite fractal zones, for simplicity let us look at the same h and the same tf. I use a variant of this basic idea with different tfs. You typically want to have the 'expired' one as the stop loss and the still valid one as the target. Even though the target has not been reached on the next bar, still the expired zone acts as a repulsor and makes this a probable trade.

k
  • #13,034
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:54am Nov 22, 2014 9:54am
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} with all due respect, it seems you have a personal problem with the concepts that have been developed on this thread. Its obviouse to anyone that has read the concepts presented here- that you have no clue! Like I said its obviouse!! so you can keep posting and regergitating that we all have fooled our selfs and that only you can see the truth and we are just looking at S and D or R & S or somthing else. So keep regurgitating for your own sake for most of use are tired of hearing how brillant and insightfull you are. Regards

another sensitive post of a know-nothing but keep the mouth wide open


if you do not like to read what others and I have to say, either piss off, set us on ignore or go elsewhere. The host of this thread has decided to open up the thread.......
  • #13,035
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:57am Nov 22, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Of course we are talking about different things. Your all white arrows (each of them in order of appearance) are reccurent already since the price was going up and doing its job. Each time the white extremum was formed was at the ratio of 50/50 (in terms of probabilities) to be trancient what in the end happened to your red arrows. If you can see your white arrow for the first time, you should know two things - the price has momentum that means the price goes on further in the given direction and the price should take its volume at all these...

very good explanation
  • #13,036
  • Nov 22, 2014 9:58am Nov 22, 2014 9:58am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yeah, that is the point: nothing to reveal. There is simply no hidden germ to be found. Presenting me now, after all what was said, such a chart, I have to say, you have not understand what was laid out earlier. If you really prefer the simple way, a few hand drawn supply/demand lines would have done the trick also
infinitus, i think at the pirate pip's thread there are compiled pdfs where you can read about the ideas from the thread. this would save your time and energy. i will be happy to talk about my viewpoint on specific criticisms. i cannot answer statements like 'the entire thread is garbage'.

k
  • #13,037
  • Edited 10:14am Nov 22, 2014 10:01am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} What you are talking about (fractal zone becoming repulsive to price, ie. a valid s/r level) is still perfectly quantifiable with the RecurrenceStatistic indicator, I have written about it several times, given a formula to estimate the probability of zone clearance if it hasn't been cleared in x bars, and have even proposed a simple strategy based on it here in the thread. Such low probability zones one can use as stop loss levels. Consider a simple strategy based on the two opposite fractal zones, for simplicity let us look at the same...

Of course we are talking about fractals.

Set H to 96 and can see almost surely the high and low of a day.

But why do I need additional statistics upon this subject?
Please, would you like explaining this?

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #13,038
  • Nov 22, 2014 10:11am Nov 22, 2014 10:11am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} That is exactly what is going on in this thread. infinitus is not the only one by the way. I'm not meaning Dr. Phoenix here.

Just curious here:

first we had a nice exchange, where we agreed on pretty much, and now I got the knife in my back?


Help, where I am here?
  • #13,039
  • Nov 22, 2014 10:13am Nov 22, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} But why do I need additional statistics upon this subject? Best, D.P.
even if you don't, that still doesn't mean the indicator is useless or wrong.

k
  • #13,040
  • Nov 22, 2014 10:16am Nov 22, 2014 10:16am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} even if you don't, that still doesn't mean the indicator is useless or wrong. k
Agreed.
Hunting High and Low
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