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The similarity system

  • #12,981
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:17am Nov 21, 2014 4:17am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Infinitus, I stopped replying as I do not wish to get drawn into a debate with you about the rights and wrongs of indicators or posts especially as it is clear that you have not taken the time to read the posts or understand or even load the indicators. Like I said in an earlier post. What is your purpose here? If you see flaws in what is presented here and that puts you off investigating or explorer the ideas presented here then simply just leave. Just for the record people have come up with different ways to use the indicators to develop...

Sadly, you are quick in drawing the wrong conclusions.......
  • #12,982
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:29am Nov 21, 2014 4:29am
Quoting MAM.Trader
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826533#post7826533 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826556#post7826556 for probabilty calculation I said forget the left side. its over done fact it has nothing to do with probabilty to reach >%90 you should go 55 bars on the right which is too long to wait. my2cent eurusdd used people here. he has secret agenda. some people worked behind the curtains the probabilty works if you combine it with %drawdown. without that even if its...

that boils it basically down


compare to what I wrote in my prior posting
  • #12,983
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:30am Nov 21, 2014 4:30am
Quoting Neio
{quote} I will tell you what is wrong with you. Your super intelligent brain cannot accept the fact that other people have taken Eurusdd's ideas as flawed as they made be and developed them to create something that works for them. That is the value that they found.

when the kids do not understand anything it may time to leave.........

Thanks for discussion, especially Kprsa, Nothtrader, Tashkent, Hanover,

and MAM.Trader for the heads up
  • #12,984
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:31am Nov 21, 2014 4:31am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Don't forget, infinitus, that the indicators here produce empirical probabilities and are designed to suggest what might happen in the future based on what actually happened in the past. They are based on the ideas presented by Eurusdd, but the argument of whether or not these ideas are flawed bears no relevance to the indisputable statistical information provided by the indicators. I suggest that you download one or two this weekend and play around with them. There are several to choose from and they are available for both MetaTrader and...
Hi NorthTrader,
Is NT7 language similar to EL ?
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,985
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:46am Nov 21, 2014 4:46am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Hi NorthTrader, Is NT7 language similar to EL ?
Sorry, maximinus, I really don't know. NinjaScript is heavily based on C#, but I've never seen EL (Easy Language?). In my experience most programming languages are similar to each other and a proficient coder can usually switch to a new language with minimum learning curve.
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,986
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:57am Nov 21, 2014 4:57am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Sorry, maximinus, I really don't know. NinjaScript is heavily based on C#, but I've never seen EL (Easy Language?). In my experience most programming languages are similar to each other and a proficient coder can usually switch to a new language with minimum learning curve.
Don't be sorry, you are one of the few here who takes the whole thing with rationality and produces useful tools while others produce wonderful trade explorers.

Yes easylanguage it is. I've some basic knowledge in EL and I code every indicators that I use, never used indicators made by others unless the code is also provided in .txt format.

When you have time, there is really no emergency, throw a simple code with few lines here, so that I can check if that's similar to EL and if I've the level.

Yes everyone tells me that once you code in one language you can switch to others, but I'm not that smart

Thanks,

Max.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,987
  • Nov 21, 2014 5:42am Nov 21, 2014 5:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} that boils it basically down compare to what I wrote in my prior posting

I meant this one

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7889814#post7889814
  • #12,988
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:30am Nov 21, 2014 6:30am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I tell you what I think what is wrong with you: you are pissed about yourself for falling for the false GOD EURUSDD and are now trying to find a gaugein other persons some people here gave you (pl.) ample warning or hints in the past, that not all was right with EURUSDD
Yeah GOD Infinitus, You can't answer anyone else's questions because it is beneath you to do so. Classic "God " complex, ask but don't answer, puts you in the place of "authority" over the "subject".

Gee, I think someone was complaining about asking some questions and those questions being skirted and the person placed on the ignore list, sounds familiar.
  • #12,989
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:34am Nov 21, 2014 6:34am
Quoting Neio
{quote} I will tell you what is wrong with you. Your super intelligent brain cannot accept the fact that other people have taken Eurusdd's ideas as flawed as they made be and developed them to create something that works for them. That is the value that they found.
  • #12,990
  • Nov 21, 2014 6:57am Nov 21, 2014 6:57am
Because I'm noob,

For all of you the great gentlemen who really smart in math and really know about market structure and always in profit.. bla..bla..bla..

Please.. please never download and use my stupid probabilities indicators that only base on 'coin toss' formula..lol.

I can't imagine, if someday you blame me if something wrong happen..to your account. But if that actually happen i can only suggest you to read my signature..


MTH
  • #12,991
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:01am Nov 21, 2014 7:01am
@Baillie. so you think eurusd is so called god!!!!! if you are a trader you may know that there is no animal in trading called 'similarity' and more over in different time frame similarity, my f***!!!! go and set 15M, 30m, and 1H time frame. and see first 15M of every hour.
every tick is different did water under bridge is same every time, did every day 1 PM is the same time as last one and will be same for coming days.
price is like time or water. don't look similarity. if it is than why big one have human trader, just buy a supper computer put all math ball ball ball in it and set thousand of lot sell of at so called your similarity point's
though I found similarity in every mail coming from your god country may be you are one of them.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #12,992
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:17am Nov 21, 2014 7:17am
Quoting priceaction1
@Baillie. so you think eurusd is so called god!!!!! if you are a trader you may know that there is no animal in trading called 'similarity' and more over in different time frame similarity, my f***!!!! go and set 15M, 30m, and 1H time frame. and see first 15M of every hour. every tick is different did water under bridge is same every time, did every day 1 PM is the same time as last one and will be same for coming days. price is like time or water. don't look similarity. if it is than why big one have human trader, just buy a supper computer...
Learn how to read before posting your stupidity! many people here have referred to him as God, I am just being sarcastic!!!!
  • #12,993
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:25am Nov 21, 2014 7:25am
Quoting priceaction1
@Baillie. so you think eurusd is so called god!!!!! if you are a trader you may know that there is no animal in trading called 'similarity' and more over in different time frame similarity, my f***!!!! go and set 15M, 30m, and 1H time frame. and see first 15M of every hour. every tick is different did water under bridge is same every time, did every day 1 PM is the same time as last one and will be same for coming days. price is like time or water. don't look similarity. if it is than why big one have human trader, just buy a supper computer put...

Hi PA,

there are some here one can have a conversation with or discuss things nicely. Had a nice exchange yesterday evening. Baillie is no one of this group, shall I say fortunately?

What happens when one asks some serious questions in a group, who thinks it is open minded? Most of them seem to feel pissed, it seems..........

But I thing they are not the best performers.

When one goes back a few postings one can see whom I value here.


EURUSDD has done a good job. The collective here reacts now like a cult.........


The curious thing is, that some are not even able to read.............
  • #12,994
  • Nov 21, 2014 7:34am Nov 21, 2014 7:34am
point clear I was not go through all the thread .
@ Baillie I am sorry,
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #12,995
  • Nov 21, 2014 8:29am Nov 21, 2014 8:29am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Don't be sorry, you are one of the few here who takes the whole thing with rationality and produces useful tools while others produce wonderful trade explorers. Yes easylanguage it is. I've some basic knowledge in EL and I code every indicators that I use, never used indicators made by others unless the code is also provided in .txt format. When you have time, there is really no emergency, throw a simple code with few lines here, so that I can check if that's similar to EL and if I've the level. Yes everyone tells me that once you code in...
Hi Max,

Not sure why I'm Mr Popular at the moment. First infinitus, now you! Honestly, my contributions to this thread have been minor compared to the seniors, who are too many to mention and I won't even try because I'll surely forget someone (but Baillie and Neio were two of them). And Eurusdd too of course, back in the day. He wasn't perfect - ignoring criticism, trading unrealistically in TEs, and so on - but then again, who is? I think the trick is to recognise and respect the good points about someone and try not to let the bad points get you down. Especially on the internet, where body language, tone and other face-to-face communication cues are lacking.

About the code, please download one of my indicators, extract the zip file, and open the .cs file with Notepad or any other text editor (I recommend Notepad++). You'll see that it's plain text uncompiled source code and you'll be able to judge how close it is to EL. There are a few comments in the code too to help people.

Good luck
NT
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,996
  • Nov 21, 2014 8:51am Nov 21, 2014 8:51am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hi Max, Not sure why I'm Mr Popular at the moment. Good luck NT
Thank you , will download this week end and see if i can convert it.

You are popular because you are not bragging. It's as simple as that

Have a nice week end.

Max
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,997
  • Nov 21, 2014 9:45am Nov 21, 2014 9:45am
Hi guys,

I haven't had time to join the war
Just want to update the indicator to add some features as someone pm me.

- alert when new potential TZ appears
- show remaining number of bars for a potential TZ to expire

Hope that helps
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 xixi_tz_1_10.mq4   25 KB | 1,850 downloads
  • #12,998
  • Nov 21, 2014 9:59am Nov 21, 2014 9:59am
Quoting xixi
Hi guys, I haven't had time to join the war Just want to update the indicator to add some features as someone pm me. - alert when new potential TZ appears - show remaining number of bars for a potential TZ to expire Hope that helps {file}

many thanks
  • #12,999
  • Nov 21, 2014 10:03am Nov 21, 2014 10:03am
Quoting xixi
Hi guys, I haven't had time to join the war Just want to update the indicator to add some features as someone pm me. - alert when new potential TZ appears - show remaining number of bars for a potential TZ to expire Hope that helps {file}
Wow you even answer private request.
Thank you so much Xixi I will be testing
and give you feedback.

Thanks again mate.

G
I read and watch to learn.
  • #13,000
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:39pm Nov 21, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Fast forward: the indicator produces a value, that shows 97% probability OK, what does that mean? Was it back-tested? Which currency? How big was the sample size? How long was the tested period? When was the testing period? What was the average duration (or period) for price to reach similarity again? What kind of draw-down do we have to expect? Is the indicator kind of back-painting? What has the indicator produced under pre-determinded conditions, like a stronger impulsive trend on higher TF, but the indicator placed on lower TF, or like...
Hi infinitus,

Thanks for the discussion. I think regardless of the notion of "good or bad", there is a good deal of things to learn from this thread. I'm not quite sure what you're arguing (sorry for not studying your posts much) but I think we can come to some sort of compromise on what's "true" and "false" as far as the propositions go and the numbers to back it.


First, regarding the actual probability
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is what eurusdd has actually said.

Here's a quote from a post I made in the past concerning it:
"The auto assumption that came from this is that if the h value is correct, 3% of bars should be transient or contain a transient zone. Is this correct? I assumed so for a VERY long time, and many others did as well. However, after thinking about it for a long time, what I'm beginning to think is that the indication is here is that not that the percentage of bars that are transient is 3%, but that the percentage of potentially transient bars that become recurrent is 3% Very different! "

Further, I ran a test (not up to your standards but I would hope that this is not a point of contention. I don't save all the data I run but if you'd like a larger sample size to prove the point I can because I'm VERY confident these results are true as the data size increases to 100,000 or more. Additionally, NorthTraders results are similar.)

13000 bars of data
h=100
1.00% of bars were fully transient
6.07% of bars were left side transient
83.70% of left side transient bars were recurrent

Clearly, from the “traditional” view point, the h value is more than high enough to satisfy the requirement for 97% recurrent bars total. But, it is quite a ways off from meeting the requirement that 97% of left side transient bars become recurrent.

So, when you face a scenario like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.PNG Size: 94 KB

The probability that the current low (which is entering a price range where no bar in the past 99 bars has entered) the probability that the low is taken out is somewhere between 80 and 86% (80 being a low estimate according to NorthTrader, 86% being the rounded number of "probability of resolving" according to the indicator). This is NOT 97% and I don't think anyone can argue with good statistics that it is. There is no error here.

However, if we look to prove eurusdd's claim and aim to find a price zone that IS 97% recurrent (the proposition I quoted), there IS a way to do this, which is different from the method that NorthTrader, myself, and others have tried.

The approach does meet eurusdd's propositions: that if we are currently at price P, and none of the previous h bars has been through P, the probability that one of the next h bars will make P recurrent is 97%.

Your first question I would expect is, "is it tradeable?" (and if yes, then questions concerning data size, significance, accuracy of test, etc). I won't engage in those latter questions because I believe the answer to the first one is an additional no.

Here is an ss of the drawdown:
Attached Image

You can see that the 'more column' makes up 3% of the data size. For a strategy that has been displayed to be in the mid-range of holding period (scalp/daytrade/swing trade) I think we can agree that 200+ pip drawdown is not acceptable and that it's fair to consider those failed trades. In fact I consider more than 100 pips to be a failed trade, although I'm not one to argue with the numbers. If, for example, 97% of the DD was contained between 1 and 100 pips, I would trade that all day (maybe).
The h value used in this data is h=120 on the 1 hour, or a one week holding period.

So, there is indeed a way to use the idea of transient/recurrent bars to create a scenario in which 97% of the time, price will return to it (for a sake of all the 'haters' saying you should read the thread, I will say that the method is mentioned/explained/strongly hinted here and not 'give it away'). But again, I do not think that it's tradeable. Is there a possibility that it is though? This point I think is unknown, as (AFAIK) not a lot of people have put in resources to discover it. combined with some sort of MTF or other information I wouldn't be surprised if it is.



Second, I can't find the posts that you mentioned it, but I believe you said you were an elliot/wave trader. Transient bars are no more than n bar fractals. Fractals are simply swing points. Connection of swing points=waves?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.PNG Size: 80 KB

I've editted out a lot of stuff here (on screen statistics that I use. Note: currently not profitable) but when viewed this way, are the ideas that far off base to be worth something? I know there are various problems with using this fractal/wave idea, but I think that is best left up to the trader to find out for him/herself. Personally, I thank eurusdd for presenting the idea in the manner that he did. I have been trying to trade waves for a long time now (unsuccessfully) and this thread was my "light bulb moment" and basis point that allowed me to create MTF waves in a way that made sense to me.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
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