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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #521
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:51pm Nov 19, 2014 2:51pm
Please change extension from .TXT to .HTML

I've posted an earlier version on the Buried Treasure thread. The first few trades were mistakes.
The rest is normal trading behaviour. 1st week was without Kiads' indicators.
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt Demo Statement 2014 Detailed.txt   41 KB | 679 downloads
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #522
  • Nov 19, 2014 4:08pm Nov 19, 2014 4:08pm
Thank you for all the info you have provided here. Brilliant.

May I ask if someone could explain "problem bars" better to me please? (Yes I have read all the provided documentation, and I tried searching the sim thread but there is way to many 'problem'[s] that appear in the results - pun not intended)
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #523
  • Nov 19, 2014 5:50pm Nov 19, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting Innate
Thank you for all the info you have provided here. Brilliant. May I ask if someone could explain "problem bars" better to me please? (Yes I have read all the provided documentation, and I tried searching the sim thread but there is way to many 'problem'[s] that appear in the results - pun not intended)
A problem bar is a bar containing a zone that has yet to be returned to or cleared. That bar could contain a zone at one of its ends, or it could be within the body.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #524
  • Nov 20, 2014 1:51am Nov 20, 2014 1:51am
Closed trades from last evening's session. I'll post the results later.
Lots of news on today and my work calendar is just..... just.

So may not have as many trades today.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #525
  • Nov 20, 2014 2:00am Nov 20, 2014 2:00am
While I have the thought in mind:

Kiad's Indicators

  1. Yellow star means next bar is up. (on my charts, it was previously green but I couldn't really see it clearly)
  2. Blue star means next bar is down.

This can be handy when you want to evaluate a pair in under 5 minutes.
Overall rule: trade with the trend. You determine this in any way/method you want. Confirm across all TFs

So, if trend is up, stack

  1. Bottom UTZ and/or
  2. Yellow Star on the prior bar
  3. Green Bomb visible in the last 2-5 bars / or within the same price level, lots of other Green Bombs
  4. Price action for trend test/bounce (ie. retrace after breakout)
  5. An upper TZ as a Target.... better if the H is already confirmed, if not then evaluate if the TZ is a middle TZ (a zone in between a higher UTZ)
  6. Switch TF and repeat on each higher timeframe.... look for the same indicators in the same price levels

I try to do the above in 5 minutes for each pair that I have on my charts.

Extra evaluation: Not in topic of this thread, but you should try and learn cross-pair relationships. If EURUSD is up.... USDJPY could be down.... what does EURJPY say? ETC
ETC.

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #526
  • Nov 20, 2014 2:03am Nov 20, 2014 2:03am
Some more "Star" Tips from Kiads himself:

Quoting Kiads
NEXT STAR TIPS Hi All, this is how I use 'star' as my bias reference in my Top-Down Analysis. This if for Monthly - Weekly - Daily configuration. {image} {image} {image} You can also do the same way with lower TF configurations Like H4 - H1 - M 15, or H1 - M30 - M15 Hope it help and best regards MTH
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #527
  • Nov 20, 2014 2:13am Nov 20, 2014 2:13am
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt Demo Statement 2014 Detailed.txt   86 KB | 543 downloads
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Demo Statement 2014 Detailed.gif Size: 5 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #528
  • Nov 20, 2014 3:17am Nov 20, 2014 3:17am
where can i download Kiad's Indicators ?
thanks
  • #529
  • Nov 20, 2014 3:42am Nov 20, 2014 3:42am
Hi Guys,

Kiad's indicators are here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7879790#post7879790
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #530
  • Nov 20, 2014 4:14am Nov 20, 2014 4:14am
Quoting vlady1974
{file}{image}
I just wanted to comment on the intention of this Test.

Objective:
To test the tradability of the combining of TZ and SS concepts (as per Similarity Thread before the Drama) with the specific intention of:

a) Reducing Trading Analysis time per pair
b) Reducing Trading Sessions to 3-4 times per day (6-8am, 1-2pm, 7-9pm, 12am*) **optional based on the Mrs.


Methodology:
To approach each analysis with the Mark Douglas, Van Tharp concepts of being "present" and "mindfulness".
This relates to using the indicators to trigger a trade, if the stacked signal across multiple timeframes says to Long or Short.
Main reasons are placed in the comment of the trade in MT4.
No SL is placed but a hedge is used where a position could be compromised. This is a specific test that isn't in the scope of this thread.
If I was to put a SL, it would be 20-25 pips.... but this would change my trading on this test drastically and increase Trading Analysis time... I have this as my next project for a future test (it relies on doing a backtest on another idea using stats like NorthTrader's and Kprsa's with tight SL, so won't be done until Dec).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #531
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:01am Nov 20, 2014 8:01am
Well, as anticipated... only one trade this afternoon session. 1:30pm AUDNZD long 1.09621 due to bottom forming utz and green bomb. If I were to put an SL, I would put it within the Zone, just under it's top boundary.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #532
  • Edited 1:57pm Nov 20, 2014 10:09am | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I just wanted to comment on the intention of this Test. Objective: To test the tradability of the combining of TZ and SS concepts (as per Similarity Thread before the Drama) with the specific intention of: a) Reducing Trading Analysis time per pair b) Reducing Trading Sessions to 3-4 times per day (6-8am, 1-2pm, 7-9pm, 12am*) **optional based on the Mrs. Methodology: To approach each analysis with the Mark Douglas, Van Tharp concepts of being "present" and "mindfulness". This relates to using the indicators to trigger a...
You are a really funny guy, vlady1974 I'll say it's optional too depending of a negative () or positive answer (). You'll might be like or .
If positive then: ... haha just joking.

Anyway... nice test. Do you mind to elaborate further on this:
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} combining of TZ and SS concepts
  • #533
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:39pm Nov 20, 2014 5:39pm
Hi Vlady,

Thank you for the thread and your generosity.

I have 2 screenshots here of 6 diff. TF's. Please have a look
and interested on your analysis. I managed to get all TF's to agree,
meaning they all have same signal, PTZ. I just got home from work
when I took this trade so it was late.

Thanks in advance,
G

PS. well it would not let me DL the screenshot at this time. Don't know why
I think its an FF issue. Anyway I have all TF's showing PTZ on the low side so
I opened a long pos. No sense discussing what I see as potential absolute TP
target without the screenshot but is it safe to say that a good TP target would be
the previous TZ?

Thanks again
I read and watch to learn.
  • #534
  • Nov 20, 2014 11:39pm Nov 20, 2014 11:39pm
Didn't do well in last night's sessions. Closed all open trades for a small cumulative loss. I'll post that later.
Current screen shot are my current opened trades going against the YEN today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #535
  • Nov 20, 2014 11:50pm Nov 20, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I just wanted to comment on the intention of this Test. Objective: To test the tradability of the combining of TZ and SS concepts (as per Similarity Thread before the Drama) with the specific intention of: a) Reducing Trading Analysis time per pair b) Reducing Trading Sessions to 3-4 times per day (6-8am, 1-2pm, 7-9pm, 12am*) **optional based on the Mrs. Methodology: To approach each analysis with the Mark Douglas, Van Tharp concepts of being "present" and "mindfulness". This relates to using the indicators to trigger a trade, if the...
thank you very much Vlad
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #536
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:28am Nov 21, 2014 2:28am
Quoting GekkoJr92
{quote} You are a really funny guy, vlady1974 I'll say it's optional too depending of a negative () or positive answer (). You'll might be like or . If positive then: ... haha just joking. Anyway... nice test. Do you mind to elaborate further on this: {quote}
LOL Thank you mate. I'm glad you enjoyed that

The TZ initially was something I was adding to my ZZBB methods etc.

But when the probability calculations started really developing, I noticed that it's possible to to just use the TZ almost exclusively. However, that is not practical long term. And I'm not FX-Jay! LOL

So when the Subsequence Theory was also introduced and the wonderful Kiads and Zelo were able to code it, what was immediately obvious is that it clusters around TZs. This means it's testable. And clearly when in trend, they work quite well..... but when we hit consolidation... well, let me rephrase... they way I have been using them works well in trend. But my recent drawdowns show that I need to alter the approach as soon as consolidation occurs. I don't know what that is yet as far as SS and TZ go.

Hence why it's a forward test. Incidentally.... with EJ it's actually a good time as I think we're hitting the end of the Wave 3 and a Wave 4 correction could be what is creating the consolidation-reversal move.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #537
  • Nov 21, 2014 4:34am Nov 21, 2014 4:34am
After news that China cut rates.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #538
  • Nov 21, 2014 10:50am Nov 21, 2014 10:50am
hello friends...
i have a question. how do you guys avoide problems with differend timezones? for example 1 minute h value is 25 and 5 minute h value is 5. its the same thing eurusdd told about similiartity. i understand why it happen but now i have less objective... on 1 minute we have a transient zone and on 5 minute there is no transient zone. how can we solve this problem...? i was thinking about we dont use the central bar... or we use only 1 timeframe....

argh... i was doing very nice calculation and now this problem...

hope someone can give me a hint.

lot regards tickoedo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmm.png Size: 40 KB
  • #539
  • Nov 21, 2014 11:27am Nov 21, 2014 11:27am
sorry the image was little bit false with the statistic. fixed the settings.
we can see that m1 timeframe has 14 transient zones more. the % number also makes a big difference... 16% and 3% (its because bars)
but 14 transient bars difference? its very much
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zuzu.png Size: 64 KB
  • #540
  • Nov 23, 2014 2:57am Nov 23, 2014 2:57am
Hi everyone,

For anyone using Ninjatrader, I've just made a small enhancement to my TZBarAnalysis indicator. I realized that with low h values the top and bottom Tip TZs were hard to differentiate on the chart, so I've made the two zones separate colors (configurable by the user). Also fixed that annoying typo in the first line of the Output window!

By the way, the TZ sequence stats for low h values are pretty interesting. It seems that the probability of 2 tops (and bottoms) in a row, and 3 tops (and bottoms) in a row is roughly the same over a wide range of h values, even h=3.

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip TZBarAnalysis_V3.zip   6 KB | 810 downloads


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_h10.jpg Size: 108 KB
You reap what you sow.
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