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The similarity system

  • #12,961
  • Edited 10:09pm Nov 20, 2014 9:33pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Are you able to read? Obviously not......
I've heard some good things about you, apparently they are not true
  • #12,962
  • Nov 20, 2014 9:43pm Nov 20, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} I'e heard some good things about you, apparently they are not true
LOL
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #12,963
  • Nov 20, 2014 9:52pm Nov 20, 2014 9:52pm
infinitus (http://www.forexfactory.com/infinitus) is the one of the most respected trader here at FF witrh his
- experience
- knowledge
- correct judgements
- helping others
- sharing info

you are becoming really funny


Quoting Baillie
{quote} I'e heard some good things about you, apparently they are not true
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #12,964
  • Nov 20, 2014 9:59pm Nov 20, 2014 9:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} what a prick you are when this whole thread started, I questioned EURUSDD some serious questions and he set me on ignore. Is ignorance contagious? Why should I load an indicator? Why should I even develop one? Based on what? Flawed mathematics, random information, a thesis no one can agree on. So what, genious. Maybe we can discuss again, when you have done approximately as many productive postings here in FF than I have done over the course of the last years. 400 postings, 4 files (where is your indicator, if I may ask) and some charts....
So your line of thinking is that if you don't develop an indicator you can't possibly trade, well you have me beat then. Hey guys we can all go home and sip our margaritas, Infinitus has helped us all with his thousands of postings that we all can stop now. Seems he has it all figured out. All we have to do is read his posts and use his indicators, that is if you are smart enough to be able to load one on your chart. Let alone read.
But WAIT!!! if you didn't develop an indicator guess what??? That's right your just too stupid to join his Arrogant ASS trading club, SO SORRY for us all.

So, I am a prick because, you may have asked a question and he ignored you? Show me the post where he advertised that you were ignored. Oh, you can't.

It's not my job to keep up with who he ignores, you can if you like.

So, I am still waiting for you to show me where he said, that, "similarity is a Markovian process". Asshole.
  • #12,965
  • Nov 20, 2014 10:06pm Nov 20, 2014 10:06pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
infinitus (http://www.forexfactory.com/infinitus) is the one of the most respected trader here at FF witrh his - experience - knowledge - correct judgements - helping others - sharing info you are becoming really funny {quote}
I know, I know. You post a few thousand times and that somehow gives you the right to be a jerk to everyone, just because he was helpful to you does not mean he is still being helpful.

As a matter of fact he is, and has been a nuisance, disrupting the peace, if you will. I believe he is violating the code of standards on FF, maybe I should report him like all you good citizens have (have you?), by coming in this thread protecting us from the bad people. Whatever could we do without all you do gooders.
  • #12,966
  • Edited 11:21pm Nov 20, 2014 10:08pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting infinitus
Why should I load an indicator? Why should I even develop one? Based on what? Flawed mathematics, random information, a thesis no one can agree on.
Don't forget, infinitus, that the indicators here produce empirical probabilities and are designed to suggest what might happen in the future based on what actually happened in the past. They are based on the ideas presented by Eurusdd, but the argument of whether or not these ideas are flawed bears no relevance to the indisputable statistical information provided by the indicators.

I suggest that you download one or two this weekend and play around with them. There are several to choose from and they are available for both MetaTrader and NinjaTrader. You may find some information in the stats or on the chart that will jump out at you and provide a useful enhancement to your current method. Or you might just find them a waste of time. But please don't be biased from the start. Please approach them with an open mind. Personally I think it's futile to dismiss or debate something you haven't even tried.

Good luck, and if you have any questions about the indicators please ask. I for one would be happy to clarify the information that my indicators are showing.

Edit: just realised that the latest version of my NT7 bar analysis indicator isn't on this thread yet. So here it is:
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip TZBarAnalysis_V2.zip   6 KB | 576 downloads
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,967
  • Edited 11:33pm Nov 20, 2014 10:11pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting Luther
If you look at the 100% win ratio MT4 DEMO statement on the first post, the Closed Trade P/L is 10,627.29, but the Account Balance is 179.61, and Free Margin is 148.68. Why is that? I remember when the OP ran this DEMO Trade Explorer. He had the TE set up so Account Balance and Open Trades were locked, so the only information that was available were Closed Trades. When a Trade Explorer is set up this way, someone can hide losses on open positions while publicly showing a 100% win ratio on closed trades. An account Balance of 179.61 with a Closed...
Luther, and everybody,

I also recall Eurusdd's TE, and I took a screenshot when he had 58 wins and no losses. He reached something like 70/0 and then the TE suddenly disappeared, which made me suspicious. I guess that was the point where the floating losses blew the account.

To state what is obvious to most of us, newbies are impressed by win rate; and that refusing to exit every trade until it returns to profit will always guarantee a 100% win rate. A lack of risk management can make ANY strategy, good or bad, appear like a holy grail — for a while.

As I said in my earlier post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7875299#post7875299), I'm not doubting that Eurusdd's analysis provides some kind of edge. But it's still necessary to exit (or somehow offset) losses before they spiral out of hand — otherwise the market will eventually find you out.

David
  • #12,968
  • Nov 20, 2014 10:17pm Nov 20, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Luther, and everybody, I also recall Eurusdd's TE, and I took a screenshot when he had 58 wins and no losses. He reached something like 70/0 and then the TE suddenly disappeared, which made me suspicious. I guess that was the point where the floating losses blew the account. To state what is obvious to most of us, newbies are impressed by win rate; and that refusing to exit every trade until it returns to profit will always guarantee a 100% win rate. That's true for ANY system, good or bad. As I said in my earlier (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7875299#post7875299)...
David, some of us here have expressed over and over the importance of risk management, sensible leverage, and so on. I agree that these weren't Eurusdd's strong points, and potentially dangerous to inexperienced traders who were focusing on the wrong things. But, as someone wisely pointed out to me offlist when I privately questioned his erratic TEs with them, it's not how he trades the ideas that should concern us. It's the ideas themselves.
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,969
  • Nov 20, 2014 10:48pm Nov 20, 2014 10:48pm


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826533#post7826533
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826556#post7826556

for probabilty calculation I said forget the left side. its over done fact
it has nothing to do with probabilty
to reach >%90 you should go 55 bars on the right which is too long to wait. my2cent

eurusdd used people here. he has secret agenda. some people worked behind the curtains

the probabilty works if you combine it with %drawdown. without that even if its %100 it means NULL
people ignored this fact and jumpin like a rabbit
I did the same on first 2-3 days until hit my head to wall. tried to explain it but Igot attacked.

%DD is the key.

this thing has nothing special rather then being n bar fractal



Quoting NorthTrader
Following on from this post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7830420#post7830420), it seems safe to assume that the probability of returning to (aka "resolving") a potential TZ within h bars to the right of the middle bar is almost 80%, if h is set such that 3% of all the bars contain full TZs. But what about the probability of returning to a bar that isn't a PTZ (potential TZ bar)? In other words, a current bar that is h-left-recurrent, and that might stay that way (only h-left-recurrent), or might become h-fully-recurrent?...
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #12,970
  • Nov 20, 2014 10:50pm Nov 20, 2014 10:50pm
What the hell happened?
  • #12,971
  • Nov 20, 2014 11:21pm Nov 20, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826533#post7826533 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7826556#post7826556 for probabilty calculation I said forget the left side. its over done fact it has nothing to do with probabilty to reach >%90 you should go 55 bars on the right which is too long to wait. my2cent eurusdd used people here. he has secret agenda. some people worked behind the curtains the probabilty works if you combine it with %drawdown. without that even if its %100 it means NULL people...
Er，thinkless and simple conclusion. keep it going.
  • #12,972
  • Nov 20, 2014 11:48pm Nov 20, 2014 11:48pm
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} yeah, nice information why did anyone and his dog believe in a winning chance of 97% or what value for trading has this 97% exactly?
Infinitus,

I stopped replying as I do not wish to get drawn into a debate with you about the rights and wrongs of indicators or posts especially as it is clear that you have not taken the time to read the posts or understand or even load the indicators.

Like I said in an earlier post. What is your purpose here? If you see flaws in what is presented here and that puts you off investigating or explorer the ideas presented here then simply just leave.

Just for the record people have come up with different ways to use the indicators to develop their own trading ideas based on patterns or stats that they saw. Like I also said earlier people find value in different ways even if it just to give a different way of thinking. Are you here to tell everyone that we wasted our time just because you can't see anything of value?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,973
  • Edited Nov 21, 2014 12:04am Nov 20, 2014 11:52pm | Edited Nov 21, 2014 12:04am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Baillie
What is the point of all the posts over nothing, if you want to understand what the thread is all about; just read it. If you want to debunk the principles, pick one and show us YOUR terrible results. If not why don't you quit making circular postings, saying the same thing over and over again. It's bad enough all the people who EURUSDD pissed off in other threads have come by to get their pound of flesh, now we have to put up with the so called "geniuses" who haven't even loaded one single indicator and done any testing. I know, you've just reached...
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Don't forget, infinitus, that the indicators here produce empirical probabilities and are designed to suggest what might happen in the future based on what actually happened in the past. They are based on the ideas presented by Eurusdd, but the argument of whether or not these ideas are flawed bears no relevance to the indisputable statistical information provided by the indicators....: {file}
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} David, some of us here have expressed over and over the importance of risk management, sensible leverage, and so on. I agree that these weren't Eurusdd's strong points, and potentially dangerous to inexperienced traders who were focusing on the wrong things. But, as someone wisely pointed out to me offlist when I privately questioned his erratic TEs with them, it's not how he trades the ideas that should concern us. It's the ideas themselves.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,974
  • Nov 21, 2014 12:43am Nov 21, 2014 12:43am
Peter may have been a nutbird. Most very smart people are. His true mistake was a procedural one. We have a hall of fame baseball player here in the states named Pete Rose. Pete got caught gambling FOR his team on the side. Instead of just coming clean and admitting fault, he went crazy. Sometimes it is better to just take a mea culpa and move on.

There were some amazing coders who took some of these concepts and built some monster indicators. Tell me, if you knew price was coming back to your entry 80% of the time within a week because someone built that kind of indicator, how would that affect your money management? Gotta say this thread was far far from a waste, no matter how it ended. Maybe you need to be a certain kind of trader to appreciate it, but my goodness, some good people did some GREAT work here. I for one, give thanks a week early for that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #12,975
  • Nov 21, 2014 1:45am Nov 21, 2014 1:45am
Quoting FXMasterSK
{quote} I'll admit I must of taken what you said out of context as I only replied to what you said and didn't look at what you were replying to. That is my mistake. I do understand the basis you are coming from as I myself have been deeply studying quantitative analysis and statistical methods in FX so I know a thing or two. I have pretty much mastered the structure of markets and it's participants, especially the foreign exchange market. Even though this is all I need money, my learning never ceases to stop and HFT/algorithmic trading is definitely...

thats good to know. anyone serious in trading should equip himself with stats knowledge and some programming (lot of libraries in R/python now so you dont need C++/java knowledge). My background was in computer science and math before moving into finance. so quant trading was an easy fit for me. My team (just like any other team) research strategies and their implementation - but note our objective is to come up with strategies that have capacity (and our expectations for returns are very modest - 4% unlevered is good, 6% is great and 9% means you are a God). Trading at a quant fund is largely done by algos under supervision of traders and strats (different firms use different terms) but trader here is not expected to make trading decision but to oversee the operation of the system and only interfere in case of serious exception (like nasdaq down etc, major intraday news for a company). Management decide capital allocation to PMs based on performance and some qualitative feelings about the strategies.

If you are interested, read up ernie chan's blog and his 2nd book. he is a practitioner as well.

BTW HFT's hay days are gone. easy money is made and now the returns for HFTs are backk to normal level (and HFTs dont have capacity)
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #12,976
  • Nov 21, 2014 2:14am Nov 21, 2014 2:14am
Quoting jmn5611
Peter may have been a nutbird. Most very smart people are. His true mistake was a procedural one. We have a hall of fame baseball player here in the states named Pete Rose. Pete got caught gambling FOR his team on the side. Instead of just coming clean and admitting fault, he went crazy. Sometimes it is better to just take a mea culpa and move on. There were some amazing coders who took some of these concepts and built some monster indicators. Tell me, if you knew price was coming back to your entry 80% of the time within a week because someone...
For me, it wasn’t a waste of time either. The TZ concept has especially helped me to time the market better. With entries and exits. In other words; less drawdown, quite the opposite from what people say who don’t have tried the ideas themselves, or didn’t make them their own.

30 pips in 30 minutes, have a nice weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYM1.png Size: 47 KB
  • #12,977
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:07am Nov 21, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} So your line of thinking is that if you don't develop an indicator you can't possibly trade, well you have me beat then. Hey guys we can all go home and sip our margaritas, Infinitus has helped us all with his thousands of postings that we all can stop now. Seems he has it all figured out. All we have to do is read his posts and use his indicators, that is if you are smart enough to be able to load one on your chart. Let alone read. But WAIT!!! if you didn't develop an indicator guess what??? That's right your just too stupid to join his...


would you mind to re-read your posting?

does not make any sense


is it you, EURUSDD? Or are you his sister?
  • #12,978
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:12am Nov 21, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} I know, I know. You post a few thousand times and that somehow gives you the right to be a jerk to everyone, just because he was helpful to you does not mean he is still being helpful. As a matter of fact he is, and has been a nuisance, disrupting the peace, if you will. I believe he is violating the code of standards on FF, maybe I should report him like all you good citizens have (have you?), by coming in this thread protecting us from the bad people. Whatever could we do without all you do gooders.


I tell you what I think what is wrong with you:


you are pissed about yourself for falling for the false GOD EURUSDD and are now trying to find a gaugein other persons

some people here gave you (pl.) ample warning or hints in the past, that not all was right with EURUSDD
  • #12,979
  • Nov 21, 2014 3:41am Nov 21, 2014 3:41am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I tell you what I think what is wrong with you: you are pissed about yourself for falling for the false GOD EURUSDD and are now trying to find a gaugein other persons some people here gave you (pl.) ample warning or hints in the past, that not all was right with EURUSDD
I will tell you what is wrong with you. Your super intelligent brain cannot accept the fact that other people have taken Eurusdd's ideas as flawed as they made be and developed them to create something that works for them. That is the value that they found.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,980
  • Edited 6:26am Nov 21, 2014 4:10am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Don't forget, infinitus, that the indicators here produce empirical probabilities and are designed to suggest what might happen in the future based on what actually happened in the past. They are based on the ideas presented by Eurusdd, but the argument of whether or not these ideas are flawed bears no relevance to the indisputable statistical information provided by the indicators. I suggest that you download one or two this weekend and play around with them. There are several to choose from and they are available for both MetaTrader and...


Hi Northtrader,

I know that. I can remember your posting very well, and I said this last night to MAM.Trader in a private message, that you have let run the indicator back over 20000 periods, and that your result was around 80% probability.

That is quite a bit away from the 97% most of the time discussed about. Nevertheless, it would be an outstanding result. To my annoyance, there was then no follow through on the discussion, since some people thought that you made some fault.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...on#post7836672 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7836672&highlight=proposition#post7836672)


Some Traders here as well as EURUSDD have shown to have a casual way with dealing with probability. It was EURUSDD and his proposition who constantly claimed the 97% thing

You developed the indicator here, which is a good think, which can calculate those zones, where the chance has been 97%. Notice the words "has been"

But the icing on the cake are the most reacent candles. Since such a process is developing, you only can say after the fact for sure, that was a zone with 97% probability. What is the probability when you do the judgement on the most recent developing zone?

Yes, the indicatorall in all shows, when setting the values, that the probability is 97% for the zones.

But most of the time, at least what I can remember to have read, people interchanged the probability value of the indicator with the expectancy they had when taking trades based on the most recent candle and developing zone. For me it is a great difference.

Yesterday our friend Neio just mentioned, that he thinks, that most of the zones are not life tradeable

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7888274#post7888274

He said:

configure h so that 97% of prices are h-recurrent and only 3% are transient. The problem I see is that it is not a tradeable 97%...i.e most of the recurrence happens on the next bar or two and there is not enough gap between entry and the PTZ being cleared. I think someone produced some stats to back this up.


Northtrader, I have said nowhere, that the indicator is a bad or flawed work.


I have only asked for backtesting results. Nota bene: to let the indicator assess the last 20000 bars is a good thing, but it is not a backtest.

I thought when one has developed an indicator, one would have defined a set of rules on how to apply it and to trade it. Based on that one would be able to have done a backtest.




I thing that the whole discussion got carried away. Maybe this was also a fault of mine.


To make a few things clear:


Basically, I questioned the integrity of EURUSDD from the beginning on. That was because of the boastfully promises, and his failed attempt to show his ability to trade, which ended with a busted account and a trade explorer that was put down every time he was in very heavy drawdown. But most people only saw the equity curve but did not back-calculate the trades to see the drawdown many/most of them had. So the cheer-leading was on.

It was especially annoying for me to see, that he never answered critical questions. Never. Most of the time people asked critical questions they ended up on his ignore list.


I criticized him recently for having introduced Markov-chain. I have notices to this theme, I took when I waded to his threads earlier in the year, where I noted, that the similarity thing is based on a stochastic process and that it is Markovian. I can not say anymore, as I said yesterday, if that was something he wrote or I interpreted. When I search all his threads for Markov or Markovian I can not come up with this. Maybe deleted, or I had a mind-fuck.

But even when he made it later clear, that the Markov-chain discussion was only to show you something, it was a bad example at all out of my view.

But I think this theme does not need to have further discussion.


I think when you are really interested in calculating the probability for the most recent candle in a developing zone, you have to do some work around stochastic models such as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

I think that the whole thread is very interesting, but would wish for more critical questions.

Interesting was, when EURUSDD introduced his 2 propositions. When you work in scientific field, and you do introduce propositions, it is up to you to prove them.

But EURUSDD was far from proofing anything. Au contraire he shifted the burden on you to disproof it.

He wrote:

The proof of proposition 1 is very technical and I do not believe it is important for us, unless you want to understand the math. What is important is this: the statement is independent of the PAIR you trade. Once the process is governed by human-emotions and bounded is a certain sense, the proposition will hold!
Therefore, as more and more data .... in, we should get closer and closer to the truth!

If you think it is wrong, disprove the proposition!
Applying a theorem is a different matter all together.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7827069#post7827069
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