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The similarity system

  • #12,941
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:18pm Nov 20, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} The indicators where built to show the percentage of price (or bars) that is recurrent or transient for the configured h not to show what percentage is tradeable.

yeah, nice information


why did anyone and his dog believe in a winning chance of 97%


or


what value for trading has this 97% exactly?
  • #12,942
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:19pm Nov 20, 2014 6:19pm
What is the point of all the posts over nothing, if you want to understand what the thread is all about; just read it.

If you want to debunk the principles, pick one and show us YOUR terrible results. If not why don't you quit making circular postings, saying the same thing over and over again.

It's bad enough all the people who EURUSDD pissed off in other threads have come by to get their pound of flesh, now we have to put up with the so called "geniuses" who haven't even loaded one single indicator and done any testing. I know, you've just reached such a high IQ level you can tell it can't possibly work.

The arrogance in this place is amazing!
  • #12,943
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:21pm Nov 20, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Yes. {quote} I am personally not ruling out the possibility of somebody really clever knowing what the price signal will look like for eurusd in the next 24 hours. I do not possess this knowlege, but it is possible that somebody does. Why do you perhaps use Eliott waves or statistical arbitrage? In order to be able to say with a degree of precision what is going to happen next, or what is not going to happen next. This is also just a method of technical analysis, and it is cleverly aiming at self-similarity. I also happened to answer Hanover's...
  • #12,944
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:22pm Nov 20, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting Baillie
What is the point of all the posts over nothing, if you want to understand what the thread is all about; just read it. If you want to debunk the principles, pick one and show us YOUR terrible results. If not why don't you quit making circular postings, saying the same thing over and over again. It's bad enough all the people who EURUSDD pissed off in other threads have come by to get their pound of flesh, now we have to put up with the so called "geniuses" who haven't even loaded one single indicator and done any testing. I know, you've just reached...
Preach it brother! this thread has just become a breeding ground for trolls!
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Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,945
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:24pm Nov 20, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi infinitus, the probabilities are based on data alone, with no assumptions about the underlying process. The code for the RecurrenceStatistic is free and open, and you are free to look inside. The 97% probability is that a certain well defined event happens. The statistics do not calculate what happens in the 3% of cases or even the drawdown in the event of success. This indicator is not a complete strategy. The strategy and money management are up to the trader. I trade pullbacks to strong trends, which is a common sense strategy. The...


OK, understand your use of it now (at least the big picture)

From your experience:

when the indicator says 3% - do you think it happens more often?
  • #12,946
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:29pm Nov 20, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} Well your questions are not showing that you are understanding the purpose of the indicators. Like I said before the indicators are showing the level of recurrency based on the user configured h. Most of the indicators allow you to specify the number of bars that you can include in the stats. It is all in the thread or obvious if you load the indicators and explore for yourself if you desire. It not I don't have the inclination to explain everything.

I understand very well.


When you set the indicator to show you the "h" for a given probability of 97%:


how much data was being used out of the past?
which currency at what time?
was the currency in the measured period trending or sideways (or good mix of both) and so on


Have you never done backtesting before, or why is it so hard to answer my questions?
  • #12,947
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:30pm Nov 20, 2014 6:30pm
Quoting PiratePip
{quote} Preach it brother! this thread has just become a breeding ground for trolls! {image}

Piss off when grown ups are discussing and sharing knowledge
  • #12,948
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:30pm Nov 20, 2014 6:30pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Nice, we have covered this point already. I said a few postings ago, that I had notices about what EURUSDD said from earlier. The notices said, that EURUSDD thinks that similarity is Markovian. I made the notices before August, but can not find the postings anymore. Either deleted, or I only made an interpretation of what he said. But all in all: It is not really about what EURUSDD has said or not. Now he is eventually in the Asylum, has always only given part of information, has even used the indicator others have developed here,...
No, he did not say he thinks similarity is markovian. you need to find it before posting mis information,It is there where I quoted, keep following the quotes.
I am glad you have come to the conclusion that all or most of us will fail in the long run, why?
I am winning most of my trades with even lees so 97% no difference to me.
  • #12,949
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:32pm Nov 20, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting PiratePip
{quote} Preach it brother! this thread has just become a breeding ground for trolls! {image}
  • #12,950
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:33pm Nov 20, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} OK, understand your use of it now (at least the big picture) From your experience: when the indicator says 3% - do you think it happens more often?
it is possible to tune the paramaters such that this percentage is well defined. one of the main problems to solve to formulate the strategy is what to do in the case of a low probability event. but this is not limited to this method of analysis, it is a general problem.

k
  • #12,951
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:40pm Nov 20, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} No, he did not say he thinks similarity is markovian. you need to find it before posting mis information,It is there where I quoted, keep following the quotes. I am glad you have come to the conclusion that all or most of us will fail in the long run, why? I am winning most of my trades with even lees so 97% no difference to me.

Are you able to read? Obviously not......
  • #12,952
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:41pm Nov 20, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Yes. {quote} I am personally not ruling out the possibility of somebody really clever knowing what the price signal will look like for eurusd in the next 24 hours. I do not possess this knowlege, but it is possible that somebody does. Why do you perhaps use Eliott waves or statistical arbitrage? In order to be able to say with a degree of precision what is going to happen next, or what is not going to happen next. This is also just a method of technical analysis, and it is cleverly aiming at self-similarity. I also happened to answer Hanover's...

Just curious now:

have I ever stated, that I think there might be no value in trying to get probabilities? As you can see in my work here in FF over the course of the last years I have done exactly that. But you will nowhere see, that I have ever stated that I am able to predict with 97% probability or more (and now I do not mean your indicator but EURUSDD).


So after I asked about the value of the indicator, asked for backtesting results, tried to engage in a discussion about the right stochastic process, you feel suddenly disturbed and want to shorten the discussion?


Are you serious?
  • #12,953
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:43pm Nov 20, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting Baillie
{quote} No, he did not say he thinks similarity is markovian. you need to find it before posting mis information,It is there where I quoted, keep following the quotes. I am glad you have come to the conclusion that all or most of us will fail in the long run, why? I am winning most of my trades with even lees so 97% no difference to me.
so you must be filthy rich by now, aren't you?
  • #12,954
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:46pm Nov 20, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} it is possible to tune the paramaters such that this percentage is well defined. one of the main problems to solve to formulate the strategy is what to do in the case of a low probability event. but this is not limited to this method of analysis, it is a general problem. k
yep, that is it - proper money management should account for

Every method/system has limitations......
  • #12,955
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:52pm Nov 20, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Just curious now: have I ever stated, that I think there might be no value in trying to get probabilities? As you can see in my work here in FF over the course of the last years I have done exactly that. But you will nowhere see, that I have ever stated that I am able to predict with 97% probability or more (and now I do not mean your indicator but EURUSDD). So after I asked about the value of the indicator, asked for backtesting results, tried to engage in a discussion about the right stochastic process, you feel suddenly disturbed and...
please read your comment again and then read mine.
i have no idea what you have been doing for the last years.
also look at the clock.

k
  • #12,956
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:07pm Nov 20, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting Baillie
What is the point of all the posts over nothing, if you want to understand what the thread is all about; just read it. If you want to debunk the principles, pick one and show us YOUR terrible results. If not why don't you quit making circular postings, saying the same thing over and over again. It's bad enough all the people who EURUSDD pissed off in other threads have come by to get their pound of flesh, now we have to put up with the so called "geniuses" who haven't even loaded one single indicator and done any testing. I know, you've just reached...

what a prick you are

when this whole thread started, I questioned EURUSDD some serious questions and he set me on ignore.

Is ignorance contagious?

Why should I load an indicator? Why should I even develop one? Based on what? Flawed mathematics, random information, a thesis no one can agree on.

So what, genious. Maybe we can discuss again, when you have done approximately as many productive postings here in FF than I have done over the course of the last years. 400 postings, 4 files (where is your indicator, if I may ask) and some charts. Great work you have done
  • #12,957
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:08pm Nov 20, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} please read your comment again and then read mine. i have no idea what you have been doing for the last years. also look at the clock. k

OK, sorry, misunderstanding here


Good night
  • #12,958
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:27pm Nov 20, 2014 7:27pm
Hi infinitus

I will explain every detail about TZ ( n bars fractal ) at my thread soon.
including the way of trading and other details

you can find answers to your questions

GL
Quoting infinitus
{quote} OK, sorry, misunderstanding here Good night
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #12,959
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:33pm Nov 20, 2014 7:33pm
member eurusdd

I will give you some advises. the rest is up to you

- weeks ago I warned you about misleading traders and got banned from posting here immediately, I was damn right
- what you did is not scamming, scamming is collecting money into legal account and then losing it at one night
- what you are doing is much more serious then that, what you attemped to do is a crime

advises;
get dissappear ASAP
if any complaint carried to your universtiy by some members here your career may end.
smart up and save your career if you are are really phd
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #12,960
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:19pm Nov 20, 2014 8:19pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
Hi infinitus I will explain every detail about TZ ( n bars fractal ) at my thread soon. including the way of trading and other details you can find answers to your questions GL {quote}

great
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