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The similarity system

  • #12,881
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:02am Nov 20, 2014 5:02am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Damn we're busted I thought we were doing this so professionally that no one would catch up. Hats off to you sir. A real genius in the making... The only thing you got wrong was the demo part, its not even a demo, it's a set of continuously updated photoshopped screenshots, done with absolute precision Well think of it, it would really be hard a sustain a demo for such a period of time & make such profits with that drawdown. It has to be photoshop! & the live trade calls are all wrong, but a little hack to the FF servers...
No sir, you are the real one genius. Continue, with this kind of returns the whole Fx market will be you propriety.

FYI, I'vnt awaited your evidence to smell eurusdd BS and warn people and I smell one bigger BS in making
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,882
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:10am Nov 20, 2014 5:10am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} I smell one bigger BS in making
In the making? I already confessed to you .. I even told you about my secret time machine.

What more do you want? The BS is already made and apparently it stinks so bad you are smelling it

Btw does this make you an even bigger scammer than me and the 'hidden' group for exposing us? What is you hidden agenda for exposing this new BS?

I am asking because one genius guy once pointed out the following:
" Is it the first time that we see a split in a scamm/bandit group ? It happens everytime in the real world, why not in the fx virtual world ? No one can suspect them, after all they are the one who gave the evidence to the authorities."

Btw do you want me to ignore you or would you like to ignore me first so that we end this? If you prefer having more fun then cool with me, I'll let you know when I get bored. So far so good
  • #12,883
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:20am Nov 20, 2014 5:20am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} In the making? I already confessed to you .. I even told you about my secret time machine. What more do you want? The BS is already made and apparently it stinks so bad you are smelling it Btw does this make you an even bigger scammer than me and the 'hidden' group for exposing us? What is you hidden agenda for exposing this new BS? I am asking because one genius guy once pointed out the following: " Is it the first time that we see a split in a scamm/bandit group ? It happens everytime in the real world, why not in the fx virtual...
Everything I discuss is public and sorry I don't have extraordinary returns with a 99.9999% win rate, nothing to hide or success to claim.

What don't you understand in the extracted quote ?

Why would I ignore a white knight and a Fx genius ? But you, of course you can ignore me it will not hurt me.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,884
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:20am Nov 20, 2014 5:20am
for the record, i am out of the often mentioned secret fb group as of this morning.
i feel that while it is/was a great and productive initiative with a lot of sharing with the community, and it has helped shine a light on eurusdd's probable bad activities, fx-jay has crossed the line a couple of times yesterday evening and this morning that puts this group in a bad light.

k
  • #12,885
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:20am Nov 20, 2014 5:20am
also please note that there is a parallel discussion in the making (http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3880&start=10) regarding the Recurrence Statistic indicator on the Steve Hopwood forum which may bear some fruit.
cheers
k
  • #12,886
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:22am Nov 20, 2014 5:22am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting kprsa
also please note that there is a parallel discussion in the making (http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=3880&start=10) regarding the Recurrence Statistic indicator on the Steve Hopwood forum which may bear some fruit. cheers k
Hi K,

Thanks for the heads-up.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,887
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:24am Nov 20, 2014 5:24am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Damn we're busted I thought we were doing this so professionally that no one would catch up. Hats off to you sir. A real genius in the making... The only thing you got wrong was the demo part, its not even a demo, it's a set of continuously updated photoshopped screenshots, done with absolute precision Well think of it, it would really be hard a sustain a demo for such a period of time & make such profits with that drawdown. It has to be photoshop! & the live trade calls are all wrong, but a little hack to the FF servers allow...
Why do you think that my initial post was adressed to you ?
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,888
  • Edited 5:54am Nov 20, 2014 5:33am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Hi Infinitus, So you made your own evaluation of him based on your knowledge fair enough. As I mentioned I do not have the mathematical knowledge to fully validate his mathematical claims. I based my judgement on my own experience of using the ideas he presented and the impact he had on my thought processes. Getting me to look at things in a different way. I honestly don't know if it was him that tried to scam people or not but I really feel that if someone is so high profile on a site like this they need to be more careful in guarding their...


Hi Neio,

now we are talking


There were many examples in the past, when EURUSDD made some flaws in statistics or mathematics. If this flaws are too big to make the similarity thing work I do not know. But it shades a bad light on a proclaimed soon to be Ph.D. of mathematics.

For example, in the earlier parts of this and another thread of him he was constantly prone to traders fallacy, when he discussed the coin toss thing.

Since he has deleted all of the post with Markovian content, I can not come up with his posting anymore. All I know, was, that he suddenly started to argument the Markovian-thesis, and how it would apply to his similarity concept.

Only when Freefox asked him, why he would use the Markovian model, when in fact he would advocate to look in the past to judge the next move of price, he paddled back with the lame excuse, that he only used the Markovian model in the discussion as a model view or so.

Later, when he deleted all that Markovian content, he wrote, that we do need to see how price reached a zone in order to judge or approximate the future moves.



Markovian means:

to make an approximation of the next move, you do only need the present. Knowing the past will not alter the future move (it only depends on the present).

But since similarity thing uses the data of the past, we simply can not apply a Markovian model, makes no sense.

In my view one of the proper ways to go is to use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Process, which is Markovian, Gaussian and stationary. This process inherits the three conditions at the same time, and tends to mean reverting over the longer time. Additionally there are papers out, that the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process also can be used in non-stationery processes (time series).
  • #12,889
  • Nov 20, 2014 5:51am Nov 20, 2014 5:51am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Neio, now we are talking There were many examples in the past, when EURUSDD made some flaws in statistics or mathematics. If this flaws are too big to make the similarity thing work I do not know. But it shades a bad light on a proclaimed soon to be Ph.D. of mathematics. For example, in the earlier parts of this and another thread of him he was constantly prone to traders fallacy, when he discussed the coin toss thing. Since he has deleted all of the post with Markovian content, I can not come up with his posting anymore....
I agree this is positive.

I must admit I have not fully understood everything you said on first read it will probably take time to digest....but I think you may have mixed up the different things presented here. Similarity concepts were taught at the start of the thread. From page 286 is when Eurusdd introduced the Markovian process and decided to work on the assumption that the market is random. My understanding is that he made this assumption based on what he feels people really believe. That the market is random. I don't think that is what he believes deep down. Hence he attempted to use Markov to show that even in random markets there is a certain predictability.

Maybe that is where there is a misunderstanding perhaps?

Here is the post I refer to...

Quoting Eurusdd
1 Forex traders are basically dealing with stochastic processes. Therefore, your success in this game depends on your understanding of stochastic processes, especially discrete ones. It is not necessary that you know these ideas in order to be successful but, if you want to see what people like me see, then you must understand what you are fighting against. Know thy enemy. Now, since almost everyone on the planet believes, the path of currency prices are random, we shall follow them and use stochastic processes to model our probabilities. In fact, we shall assume that any two bars on your chart are independent, that is the process has no memory. Even in this case, you can still beat the process. {image} In the case of forex trading the random variable are the bars on your charts. The feature of the bar you are interested in gives the value of that random variable. So, if you are interested in the close values of the bars, then the process is defined by the closing prices of the bars.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,890
  • Edited 6:16am Nov 20, 2014 6:03am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting Neio
{quote} I agree this is positive. I must admit I have not fully understood everything you said on first read it will probably take time to digest....but I think you may have mixed up the different things presented here. Similarity concepts were taught at the start of the thread. From page 286 is when Eurusdd introduced the Markovian process and decided to work on the assumption that the market is random. My understanding is that he made this assumption based on what he feels people really believe. That the market is random. I don't think that...

Please, do me a favor and google Markovian in this thread. Is there anything left from EURUSDD?

And then: when we discuss e.g. the similarity thesis, introduce a Brownian model like Markovian process, which is only dependant of the present, not past (edited: wrote mistakenly future), it does not make sense to introduce such a concept, when you want to make the people understand and accept the whole thesis.

Why should he worked out on a random market theory, when in fact he does not believe it? Makes not much sense. And since when do the majority of traders believe that markets are random? Most mathematicians I know think that most of the time markets are random, many mathematical solutions to this question do show that. And traders deny that. At least this is my view......
  • #12,891
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:19am Nov 20, 2014 6:19am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Why do you think that my initial post was adressed to you ?
Sorry my fault, I thought you were talking about the same group EURUSDD & almost everyone on this thread was mentioning in the couple of days.

Doesn't matter anwz + from now on whenever I talk I talk about myself and don't represent anyone.
Once any micro fishy thing comes out from me, feel free (not particularly you) to go out in public & shame me.
I actually do this to myself whenever I make a bad call/trade.

I'm not trying to build a legacy around here or ask anyone to follow me. Hell I even asked if I could have this red flag removed from me because some people kept on claiming that I'm showing off & think I'm smart because I have it. I'm here for less than 3 months & unlike some highly respected seniors around, I don't think I will stay for years & years on FF, this isn't for me, I eventually get bored and the troll in me comes out (and that's not really good).
I know what ur thinking.. he'll blow his account & dissappear .. will I really care about what people around here will think?, Nop.. I won't be here anwz nd there's nothing my real life identity will gain or lose from FX Jay's reputation.

One thing I learned around here is that you can never please everyone, and the best way to go around that is not to care about what anyone things. That's why I repeatedly mentioned that I'm self centered & only care about myself.

On all cases I promise that I'll be away from this thread for good since both I & it (the thread) stopped providing anything useful. I will keep my sarcasm for different websites & stick to trading around FF on other threads. Unlike others, my promises are kept & even if someone will mention me around here with anything non related to trading, I won't answer no matter how good or bad it is. I'll be most probably around Pirate's or Vlady's threads.

Sorry for the long rant, but once more I encourage whoever has any dirt on me or anyone who will have any dirt on me at anytime to come forward and say it out loud.

Best,
Jay
  • #12,892
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:23am Nov 20, 2014 6:23am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Please, do me a favor and google Markovian in this thread. Is there anything left from EURUSDD? And then: when we discuss e.g. the similarity thesis, introduce a Brownian model like Markovian process, which is only dependant of the present, not past (edited: wrote mistakenly future), it does not make sense to introduce such a concept, when you want to make the people understand and accept the whole thesis. Why should he worked out on a random market theory, when in fact he does not believe it? Makes not much sense. And since when...
Markov property is an approximation, Eurusdd was very clear on this point, and I have discussed it in some detail (notably when the approximation fails).
Google "Markov (http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=12752003&page=3)" instead of "Markovian" in this thread and you will see that you are wrong on this claim.

k
  • #12,893
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:27am Nov 20, 2014 6:27am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Markov property is an approximation, Eurusdd was very clear on this point, and I have discussed it in some detail (notably when the approximation fails). Google "Markov (http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=12752003&page=3)" instead of "Markovian" in this thread and you will see that you are wrong on this claim. k

thanks for the find, will dig through it later



BTW: makes no sense to discuss the topics further in the asylum here

Should open a new thread......
  • #12,894
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:29am Nov 20, 2014 6:29am
Quoting infinitus
{quote}BTW: makes no sense to discuss the topics further in the asylum here Should open a new thread......
Agreed.

k
  • #12,895
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:29am Nov 20, 2014 6:29am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} thanks for the find, will dig through it later BTW: makes no sense to discuss the topics further in the asylum here Should open a new thread......
I agree with this. Let's start anew.

(BTW... I am not volunteering)
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #12,896
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:33am Nov 20, 2014 6:33am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Please, do me a favor and google Markovian in this thread. Is there anything left from EURUSDD? And then: when we discuss e.g. the similarity thesis, introduce a Brownian model like Markovian process, which is only dependant of the present, not past (edited: wrote mistakenly future), it does not make sense to introduce such a concept, when you want to make the people understand and accept the whole thesis. Why should he worked out on a random market theory, when in fact he does not believe it? Makes not much sense. And since when do the...
Here are some...searched for Markov

Quoting Eurusdd
{image}
Quoting Eurusdd
We do not need to understand everything about markov chain: What we need for forex trading are the following.{image} 1: It is clear that NO state(price) is absorbing!!! 2: But, and this is important, At any given time, there is a set of states that are transient!!!, we can find them. 3: NOT all forex prices are recurrent. So, those problem bars are the ones that contain the KEY transient states(price). Once we calculate the the time-interval, we can make a call that the process will return to those prices within the time period!!!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #12,897
  • Nov 20, 2014 6:57am Nov 20, 2014 6:57am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Sorry my fault, I thought you were talking about the same group EURUSDD & almost everyone on this thread was mentioning in the couple of days. Doesn't matter anwz + from now on whenever I talk I talk about myself and don't represent anyone. Once any micro fishy thing comes out from me, feel free (not particularly you) to go out in public & shame me. I actually do this to myself whenever I make a bad call/trade. I'm not trying to build a legacy around here or ask anyone to follow me. Hell I even asked if I could have this red flag removed...
You were right, my initial post was adressed to you and pirate. My scam radar screen is on high level alert when I see anyone posting fantastic equity curve and refuses to discuss methodology or want to discuss the methodology in secret or has a twitter account, blog etc...That's how most scam starts, teasing with sexy EC and results. After all that's how Eurusdd started his business. So I think that's my duty to preserve the newcomers in the community and prevent them from this kind of trap. You see, my goal is very basic.
Take note that I have not accused you being a scammer, and I'll never be able to do so because I'll never enter in any private communication with you. So that will be hard for me to collecting anything against you or anyone else. But I feel the urge to share my concern when I see anyone posting extraordinary result but refuses to discuss publicly.

You see, nothing personal against you.

Max.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #12,898
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:52am Nov 20, 2014 7:52am
Man, this thread has become like a train wreck...you just can't turn away.
  • #12,899
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:52am Nov 20, 2014 7:52am
guys, i have always had that question in my mind: WHY do you think the (dis)similarity concept works? WHAT is it that you firmly believe the REAL reason behind it? is not market a sum of all intentions and acts of its participants? do not you think there is a serious flaw with eurusdd's understanding of "the market"? and what kind of creature the market is personally for you?

and a question about the TZ. the heart and soul of this concept is the Probability theory. however, it is not enough to become successful even you are best at probability. so what other concepts one has incorporate to probability in order to become successful.

i am sorry if this post sounds like trolling and i understand most guys here love to talk about the numbers and the indicators rather than the philosophy of trading.
As Above, So Below
  • #12,900
  • Nov 20, 2014 8:02am Nov 20, 2014 8:02am
Quoting tashkent
guys, i have always that question in my mind: WHY do you think the (dis)similarity concept works? WHAT is it that you firmly believe the REAL reason? is not market a sum of all intentions and acts of its participants? do not you think there is a serious flaw with eurusdd's understanding of "the market"?
Because of the self-similarity property of the price signal. For example, in order to have a change of trend, all the sub-cycles must complete (similarity). If they are not complete (dissimilarity) the trend is expected to still go on. In my opinion this is a sound technical view of the market.

k
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