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  • #5,941
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:44am Nov 19, 2014 12:44am
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/troub...184500652.html

the saga continues. Looks pretty bad for PBR, may even bring down the Rousseff government. Interesting that everything breaks wide open as soon as the elections are over, hmm? Welllll, prolly just a coincidence. Might be worthwhile to get something short on PBR...

Otoh, if Rousseff gets ousted, Brazilian markets would have a party....
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-18_pbr7.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,942
  • Edited 5:58am Nov 19, 2014 1:54am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting The Fool
I have done this kind of UVXY put spread many times. .......... $0.33 was not enough gain for the trouble this has been - generally, I want to be in fat credit on the short legs so I can get out early with positive gain - not so doable when you start out low value anyway. Also, this has been a margin hog...........
Exactly that is my personal MAIN takeaway from my own trading. Yesterday I watched a tt video about delta and theta efficiency, and really no matter how you trade selling premium, spreads or naked, or combos or whatever, it must be efficient. For example - you see a far OTM option on AMZN, witch has 95% chance for expiring OTM... is is about $0.50... Is that really a efficient trade for me? Well hell no, because margin req is way to high for that - 3x higher than that BABA strangle for $2.07 credit I did. So I have learned to wage all that. I must have enough credit relative to margin req AND time (DTE). I will accept credit less than $1.00 or $100 per trade only if it is short term ER's play with weekly options. With my account, I can't find any reason to risk naked selling for less. Different story with large portfolio margin accounts, they can take all sort of trades. As you said, when you are in fat credit, and few days pass... if nothing out of the ordinary isn't happening with the U/L, you will be positive. If you want to free margin, OR don't like the trade anymore - close the mofo for 10-20% gain and move on.

About UVXY... bid/ask spread, volume and OI of its options cannot be compared with VXX. I see you mentioned VXX in your next post. One of the first verticals I did was bear call spread on VXX... works like a charm in periods of low volatility, when everybody sell vol spikes... like when VIX was stuck to $12 for months (God forbid, please not that anymore)...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,943
  • Nov 19, 2014 5:55am Nov 19, 2014 5:55am
Interesting article and charts

Google’s Death Cross in Effect
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,944
  • Nov 19, 2014 7:38am Nov 19, 2014 7:38am
Quoting The Fool
Looks pretty bad for PBR, ... Otoh, if Rousseff gets ousted, Brazilian markets would have a party.... {image}
if it blows over, PBR could be back >$15 by the Spring. I will play both ends, but will leg into put side, look for a risk free put calendar...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,945
  • Nov 19, 2014 8:05am Nov 19, 2014 8:05am
Quoting StrayDog
Lots of negativity around BlackBerry these days...
Yeah, skipping this until dust settles (or just permanent skip )...

Morgan Stanley downgraded BBRY and their new PT is just $7... I can think of vol skew to the put side right now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,946
  • Edited 9:47am Nov 19, 2014 8:38am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting StrayDog
.... Anyways, I did a Nov 64/70.50 short strangle for $0.73 credit on TGT (it was trading for $67.50), as earnings play. It is tomorrow BMO. {image}
Well, mofo TGT breached upper edge of estimated move. I closed the above short strangle for $0.53 (put side for $0.02 and I had to pay $0.51 for calls)...
So, a small(ish) winner. I don't want to wait for pullback (or FOMC...) - will take a break and go to fetch carpets from washers ...

Lots of companies with ER's today AH and tomorrow BMO... Will trade some of them.


Add-on
Current low / high for 70.50 calls is 0.46 / 1.02... (good close after all)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,947
  • Nov 19, 2014 9:44am Nov 19, 2014 9:44am
pretty strong drop in BAHOO (YABAHOO?, BOOYAH?) which started a day or so ago. I don't really like the options on BABA, but if it keeps going down <$100 I might have to look to get in a long term play of some kind...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,948
  • Nov 19, 2014 10:22am Nov 19, 2014 10:22am
Quoting The Fool
pretty strong drop in BAHOO (YABAHOO?, BOOYAH?) which started a day or so ago. I don't really like the options on BABA, but if it keeps going down <$100 I might have to look to get in a long term play of some kind...
I think that they will improve options during time... with $2.5 and $1 strikes... I was bitching half a day yesterday for not closing my BABA 100/135 Dec short strangle at $1.60, instead of that i got out at $1.78 ... but it trades now for -2.35 / -2.20, so after all not bad close. I had always good sense to close something that might be bad - like TGT today - but only a few times managed to really milk a good trade...

Was thinking to go long weekly TGT 71 call, boy that was bright idea... when TGT droped a little to ~$70.65, that call was $0.42 and now it is $1.52...
But I am stuck in charts, doing statistics for stocks with upcoming ER's.
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  • #5,949
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:21pm Nov 19, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting StrayDog
... But I am stuck in charts, doing statistics for stocks with upcoming ER's.
MBLY is a new tech company on market, tomorrow is their first ER's report... to bad I didn't saw that in time. Large move is very possible, would play that with long strangle, but bought in advance, and no time for that now.

For selling premium, I am looking at GMCR - maybe Nov 130/180 short strangle... than CRM - maybe 56/66 short strangle, or Iron Condor... and finally BBY - I did a successful Iron Condor in last cycle.

I just have a filling that E.M. on GMCR is rather small... market makers are pricing a up to 7.5% move there - about $11.50. Just look at that enormous Feb 2014 move ... and that stock is just grinding and grinding up... hmmm...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,950
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:04pm Nov 19, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting The Fool
I have done this kind of UVXY put spread many times.
I bought/closed UVXY Nov $20.50 puts here right before the minutes. Would've been my luck for SnP to rocket up to another new high on dovish Fed - and what else can one expect?....anyway, got $0.25 out of $0.36 possible against the $0.03 lost on the $17 Nov puts, which are still there and could be spread on again, I suppose, in a fit of stupidity...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,951
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:36pm Nov 19, 2014 1:36pm
Not much of a movement so far...

Interesting text about GMCR... as I mentioned above that I find the E.M. smallish...
If I understand the article, that is because stock just grinds higher, and thus "risk" is going lower...

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) - Unprecedented, Stunning Risk Phenomenon into Earnings

"This is a really interesting result and reflects a risk by the option market that in words reads:
"The risk in earnings for GMCR is lower than it has ever been."


Add-on
http://optionvol.blogspot.com/
Interesting stuff here... Hey CG - Unusual options activity also there...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,952
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:44pm Nov 19, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if it blows over, PBR could be back >$15 by the Spring. I will play both ends, but will leg into put side, look for a risk free put calendar... {image}
i'm looking for a call on PBR long term
  • #5,953
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:15pm Nov 19, 2014 2:15pm
re: GMCR, I bought the DDD below a couple weeks ago. I thought I might get out with a profit b4 earnings, but silly me I wasn't counting on insane spreads, Lesson learned. Again.

Nevertheless, still a chance I may make some money. Since GMCR likes to pop up on ER's, I will hold the $129/$131 diagonal, buy back the Nov 22 $170 calls, and hold the Nov 28 $172.50 calls.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-19_GMCR.png Size: 14 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,954
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:41pm Nov 19, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting The Fool
re: GMCR, I bought the DDD below a couple weeks ago. I thought I might get out with a profit b4 earnings, but silly me I wasn't counting on insane spreads, Lesson learned. Again. Nevertheless, still a chance I may make some money. Since GMCR likes to pop up on ER's, I will hold the $129/$131 diagonal, buy back the Nov 22 $170 calls, and hold the Nov 28 $172.50 calls. {image}
done, bought back Nov 22 $170 calls for $1.85, so $0.27 on the original $0.02 debit, now basically I am Nov 28 $172.50 long calls for $1.85. I hope SDog is right and GMCR busts a crazy long move.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,955
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:48pm Nov 19, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought/closed UVXY Nov $20.50 puts here right before the minutes. Would've been my luck for SnP to rocket up to another new high on dovish Fed - and what else can one expect?....anyway, got $0.25 out of $0.36 possible against the $0.03 lost on the $17 Nov puts, which are still there and could be spread on again, I suppose, in a fit of stupidity...
coulda held, oh well, in hindsight woulda done the same, water under the bridge, a 5% gain for the tiny account, can't complain, tiny account mostly dry powder now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,956
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:24pm Nov 19, 2014 3:24pm
GMCR flat after ER, TF loses money again....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,957
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:40pm Nov 19, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting StrayDog
I am looking at GMCR - maybe Nov 130/180 short strangle... I just have a filling that E.M. on GMCR is rather small... market makers are pricing a up to 7.5% move there - about $11.50. Just look at that enormous Feb 2014 move ... and that stock is just grinding and grinding up... hmmm...
well, hope you sold a strangle there....woulda worked out well short premium...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,958
  • Nov 19, 2014 3:52pm Nov 19, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, hope you sold a strangle there....woulda worked out well short premium...
I got spooked... Didn't do any trade... That 130/180 strangle could be filled for $1.40 credit, by legging in... or with one click from $1.15 to $1.32...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yeah... each option had 92% prob of expiring OTM.... yes I know that you really can't count binary event... on last ER's there was also a no-move... but stock had some diabolic moves in the past so I skipped that.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,959
  • Nov 19, 2014 5:45pm Nov 19, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I got spooked... .
well, in hindsight I closed a $2 spread for a $1.85 loss. I must be frikkin Jesse Livermore's retarded lost offspring. Fat chance the Nov28 $172.50 calls will be worth anything.

Keep in mind next week we have Thanksgiving and markets are closed Thursday, open for a short day Friday...

http://www.thestreet.com/stock-marke...days-2014.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,960
  • Edited 7:58pm Nov 19, 2014 6:24pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'm looking for a call on PBR long term
PBR might hit major turbulence in December when they finally release their Q3 ER. I expect they will survive and shares will trade above $20 again when the oil price comes back. As always, the big question is: when will that be?

I might do a Dec $11/Apr $13 call diagonal spread ($.23/$.38) it gets on for a $0.15 debit. After the Dec expiry I'd hope to spread again, depending on where PBR is....
the trade b/e between $8.80 and $11.75 at expiry. You could close it for max P=$0.35 if it is near $10.80 at expiry.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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