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  • #5,921
  • Nov 17, 2014 12:11pm Nov 17, 2014 12:11pm
Hi TF, SD, and CG,

If interested, some information regarding the Swiss vote and the GLD debate:

http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/m...old_tjn.en.pdf
http://www.20min.ch/ro/news/dossier/...a-BNS-21694370

It's been quite some time since I have played the spot FX market but interesting EUFCHF spot has hit the SNB 1.2 floor. This could be an opportunity to go long on this pair. The 30 Nov is key; if YES the pair will likely hang around the floor for a while but I can't see this being broken or removed as some are suggesting. If a NO vote then the pair could pop nicely. I only see upside on this pair but the time horizon of when it moves back up is the question....
  • #5,922
  • Nov 17, 2014 12:35pm Nov 17, 2014 12:35pm
Hi njr,

Good to see you're still around, hope all is well.

What's the prognosis for the referendum?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,923
  • Nov 17, 2014 1:05pm Nov 17, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi njr, Good to see you're still around, hope all is well. What's the prognosis for the referendum?

Hey TF - All good thanks......looking forward to the ski season....

"A poll on Friday showed 38 percent of respondents were in favour of the initiative, down from 45 percent in a poll in the paper last week. Some 47 percent of those surveyed opposed the proposals. Fifteen 15 percent remained undecided"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0SQ3U420141031
  • #5,924
  • Nov 17, 2014 1:20pm Nov 17, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting The Fool
SDog, not sure if you've seen this one - if you're into selling naked it looks like doing ratio spreads may be better. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhmm2yQ22p4

Hey TF... I watched the video, interesting stuff, there is another from last Friday >>> Stock and Ratio Spreads <<<, with 2 examples... They were looking how to protect existing long position with put ratio spreads, so long 1, short 2 puts. But that could be also initiated as a trade without stock position.



Hi njr, are you trading buddy, or waiting for FOMC?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,925
  • Nov 17, 2014 1:35pm Nov 17, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey TF... I watched the video, interesting stuff, there is another from last Friday >>> Stock and Ratio Spreads <<<, with 2 examples... They were looking how to protect existing long position with put ratio spreads, so long 1, short 2 puts. But that could be also initiated as a trade without stock position. Hi njr, are you trading buddy, or waiting for FOMC?
Hey SD,

All good with me. Yup, still trading actively and more importantly working on setting up a fund Legislation is challenge
  • #5,926
  • Nov 17, 2014 1:46pm Nov 17, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey SD, All good with me. Yup, still trading actively and more importantly working on setting up a fund Legislation is challenge
Nice, man! Hope everything will come good for you! I had my share of fighting the bureaucracy, and I had only a small firm, used to trade my domestic market via it, because tax was lower. Was pain in the but to close it, once the govt equaled capital gain taxes for everyone, companies and individuals. So I can imagine paperwork for something bigger... but I suppose you can do majority of it on-line. Well, never mind that, I just want to congratulate you and again, wish you great success.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,927
  • Nov 17, 2014 2:11pm Nov 17, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey SD, All good with me. Yup, still trading actively and more importantly working on setting up a fund Legislation is challenge
Hey, njr, that sounds exciting! I hope you get that going and make it big. Will that be in der Schweiz then? If you need traders, you know where to look. (Not at me!)

Woohoo, another flatline day for the SnP...I'd thought there was a slim chance the Japan recession news could give us a down day, guess not....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,928
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:02pm Nov 17, 2014 3:02pm
SD/TF - Many thanks for your comments.........Much appreciated
  • #5,929
  • Edited Nov 18, 2014 2:30am Nov 17, 2014 4:17pm | Edited Nov 18, 2014 2:30am
zzzzzzzzz
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-...221026523.html

"But since bouncing off the October 15 lows and returning to all-time highs, the S&P 500 has completely gone to sleep.
And the last five closes on the S&P 500 have been in the tightest range since Lyndon Johnson was president."

...but then, I have heard: "Never short a dull tape."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,930
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:04am Nov 18, 2014 8:04am
Another zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

NATO leader sees "serious military buildup" in Ukraine, urges Russia to pull back troops

"Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denounced on Tuesday what he called a serious Russian military buildup both inside Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border and urged Moscow to pull back its troops. "

VIX is gonna move from 14.02 to 14.07 (maybe) ... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,931
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:21am Nov 18, 2014 8:21am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. / S.D. any time you guys spot massive activity like T.F. MENTIONED ABOVE let me be aware of it please
Forgot to answer to this, here is what I have seen.

This guy often has articles of notable options activity:
http://dannathan.tumblr.com/

I have seen something also on Option Monster site, and former option market maker Andrew Keen often publish something about it on his site:
http://keeneonthemarket.com/
AND as well on his TWTR profile. He is basing his entire trading approach on Unusual Options Activity, and he is option buyer in most of the cases.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,932
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:21am Nov 18, 2014 8:21am
Wall Street doesn't care about Ukraine. I'd guess there's a chance there'll be some hawkish syllables in the FOMC minutes and then might see a twitch of fear. Obviously we need a rollover, but that is proving hard to do in the stampede toward year-end.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,933
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:16am Nov 18, 2014 9:16am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Forgot to answer to this, here is what I have seen. This guy often has articles of notable options activity: http://dannathan.tumblr.com/ I have seen something also on Option Monster site, and former option market maker Andrew Keen often publish something about it on his site: http://keeneonthemarket.com/ AND as well on his TWTR profile. He is basing his entire trading approach on Unusual Options Activity, and he is option buyer in most of the cases.
thanks S. D.
  • #5,934
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:32am Nov 18, 2014 11:32am
Quoting The Fool
I have heard: "Never short a dull tape."
YUP, and every day I see a new article or blog post about the strength of the bull. Today: The S&P has not been down more than 3 days in a row in 2014. That has not happened since 1950.

I'm glad to see the breakout today, though. I have some bullish SPY positions that will make some money (or at least looking that way now). IWM still looking toppy at $116-$118, I'd like to see that bust a move, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,935
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:58pm Nov 18, 2014 1:58pm
Who are all these 30 traders looking at this thread? Don't be shy about actually posting something if you'rre trading options.

Well, I kinda thought we would have a strong move up out of that consolidation zone - bears put up a good fight at SnP 2,035 +/- but bulls soaked up all they had and spit it back at them. 2,100 by Xmas is a given now, unless Something happens....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,936
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:09pm Nov 18, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Who are all these 30 traders looking at this thread? Don't be shy about actually posting something if you'rre trading options. ....
Indeed. We don't bite.

Anyways, I did a Nov 64/70.50 short strangle for $0.73 credit on TGT (it was trading for $67.50), as earnings play. It is tomorrow BMO.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TGT-64-70.50-ss.png Size: 16 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,937
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:15pm Nov 18, 2014 2:15pm
Lots of negativity around BlackBerry these days... it has earnings on 12/19... on Dec monthly expiration.

Looking at BBRY Dec 10 puts to sell for $0.43 credit. That would give me b/e of $9.57... First support is at $10 and second around $9, IMO.

Too bad that cheap stock such as BBRY does not have $0.5 strikes...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #5,938
  • Edited 9:41pm Nov 18, 2014 9:29pm | Edited 9:41pm
I have done this kind of UVXY put spread many times. This one is one of the worst, but it may still work out. I have come close to closing it for a loss a couple times. It was put on @ $0.36/$0.03 a week or so ago - a $0.33 credit. Indication is it's $100 in profit, but it's just at b/e - because of wide spreads. I have learned lately, and relearned, that credit spreads have to be traded carefully: you gots to understand what the spreads may be like if/when you want to get out b4 expiry; you have to be on guard that you don't let it run if the underlying moves towards that death-slide; $0.33 was not enough gain for the trouble this has been - generally, I want to be in fat credit on the short legs so I can get out early with positive gain - not so doable when you start out low value anyway. Also, this has been a margin hog.

I bitch about it but I will probably keep doing put spreads on UVXY. It gets down to certain levels and it will bounce, even if the SnP keeps rising. I'd guess it is getting bought as cheap insurance when it is down at the bottom of its range. That's true til it's not, of course, and UVXY will make new lows if the SnP keeps trucking higher.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-18_uvxyc.png Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-18_uvxypl.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-18_uvxy.png Size: 8 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,939
  • Edited 10:11pm Nov 18, 2014 9:58pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting The Fool
I bitch about it but I will probably keep doing put spreads on UVXY.
VXX is better choice maybe. Just scary to be long vol in this relentless bull market...VXX spreads much nicer - UVXY bid/ask murder...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-18_vxx.png Size: 51 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,940
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:33pm Nov 18, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting StrayDog
Lots of negativity around BlackBerry these days... it has earnings on 12/19... on Dec monthly expiration. Looking at BBRY Dec 10 puts to sell for $0.43 credit. That would give me b/e of $9.57... First support is at $10 and second around $9, IMO. Too bad that cheap stock such as BBRY does not have $0.5 strikes...
Fed gonna stick a fork in the bull market, next FOMC - 12/18. Looking at Jan expiry and beyond for directional money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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