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USD/RUB

  • #221
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:53am Nov 18, 2014 9:53am
USD/RUB too late to trade now.

every single broker made exotics harder to trade,
spread / margin etc.

and USB/RUB is now über-exotic now
LOL
  • #222
  • Nov 18, 2014 9:59am Nov 18, 2014 9:59am
Quoting openyoureyes
USD/RUB too late to trade now. every single broker made exotics harder to trade, spread / margin etc. and USB/RUB is now über-exotic now LOL
Yep. The effect is to discourage carry trades ... . More profitable for brokers to encourage people to get in and out of trades fairly quickly so that they can realize spreads, commissions, etc.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #223
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:01am Nov 18, 2014 10:01am
Fortunately, there are plenty of other toys on the playground ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #224
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:08am Nov 18, 2014 10:08am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} There was probably an announcement I missed somewhere (probably in my email in-box that I haven't checked all week). I know that this occurs from time to time in pairs that are experiencing volatility. For example, for a brief period I know that the margin for EUR/CHF was changed due to volatility in that pair associated with the floor that the Swiss National Bank had established for the pair ... . But, given the size of the position, I'm not going to sweat it. I wasn't in at very good prices, but was getting good swap on the position, so...
Are you looking to get back in this pair, perhaps 48-50 entries? Or are the margin requirements just no longer worth it to you?
  • #225
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:25am Nov 18, 2014 10:25am
Quoting thadakman
{quote} Are you looking to get back in this pair, perhaps 48-50 entries? Or are the margin requirements just no longer worth it to you?
Certainly, just have to make the legs even smaller ... . Right now I would consider an entry order to sell from the very high at 47.75 and possibly at 47.00 even ... .

On the 1H, looks like we have a little wedge forming ... :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD:RUB 1H Wedge.jpg Size: 185 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #226
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:28am Nov 18, 2014 10:28am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Certainly, just have to make the legs even smaller ... . Right now I would consider an entry order to sell from the very high at 47.75 and possibly at 47.00 even ... . On the 1H, looks like we have a little wedge forming ... : {image}
Awesome, I hope you get your entry, there'd be nothing worse then having waited this long only to have the big move happen and not be in the trade. Could get a good move to the downside, although, I wish Putin wouldn't have left the G-20 summit early LOL.
  • #227
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:34am Nov 18, 2014 10:34am
Wedge is also present on the 4H, with the apex around 47.30 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #228
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:39am Nov 18, 2014 10:39am
Quoting thadakman
{quote} Awesome, I hope you get your entry, there'd be nothing worse then having waited this long only to have the big move happen and not be in the trade. Could get a good move to the downside, although, I wish Putin wouldn't have left the G-20 summit early LOL.
A ton of air below ... . But oil prices are not cooperating:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Current Oil.jpg Size: 88 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #229
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:01am Nov 18, 2014 11:01am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} A ton of air below ... . But oil prices are not cooperating: {image}
I don't necessarily think oil prices have to cooperate that much, sure it'd help long-term, but I can still foresee a much larger correction in RUB than oil near-term.

Oil prices haven't affected USD/CAD nearly as much for example, I think lifted sanctions would give the USD/RUB a much nicer move than a pop in oil.

With that said, I don't see lifted sanctions anytime soon, if anything there will be more, but, since most markets are forward looking I see the RUB appreciating even in spite of more possible bad news coming out. These things usually make the turn when it "doesn't make sense"; only looking back it will make sense, the move has usually already occurred by the time it should make sense. For example, the RUB will probably have gotten most of it's gains by the time lifted sanctions and higher oil prices are making headlines. The smart money will probably be exiting their positions at this time as others initiate (again, After the "big" move already occurred).
  • #230
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:31am Nov 18, 2014 11:31am
Also, lets not forget the ace up the Ruble's sleeve,

"On Tuesday the head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina confirmed the regulator was ready to intervene unexpectedly and on a large-scale, in case risks to financial stability arise."
"The Central Bank does not waive its right to intervene any moment in order to maintain financial stability. We warned the players we are ready to make unexpected interventions in case of negative developments," Nabiullina told the State Duma.
  • #231
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:04pm Nov 18, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting thadakman
Also, lets not forget the ace up the Ruble's sleeve, "On Tuesday the head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina confirmed the regulator was ready to intervene unexpectedly and on a large-scale, in case risks to financial stability arise." "The Central Bank does not waive its right to intervene any moment in order to maintain financial stability. We warned the players we are ready to make unexpected interventions in case of negative developments," Nabiullina told the State Duma.
I would agree ... . Sanctions are likely to be in play for substantial period of time.

You would think that the mere intervention statement would be enough to drive some players out of the market; it may have, since it looks like we're in a bit of choppy consolidation here between 47.75 and 46.50. But this is why I'll wait to wade in at absolute price extremes north of 48, like 48.25 or 48.50, which might motivate a sudden intervention. The RCB is obviously concerned about where the Ruble's at now ... .

On the technical side of things, I think we might have a slightly lower high in place at 47.75, but we've yet to see a lower low than 44.75.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #232
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:21pm Nov 18, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting openyoureyes
USD/RUB too late to trade now. every single broker made exotics harder to trade, spread / margin etc. and USB/RUB is now über-exotic now LOL
What makes you say this? I'm still getting 20:1 leverage on USD/RUB. The spread is ridiculous though during certain times, but it's been like that, nothing has changed on that end.
  • #233
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:37am Nov 20, 2014 7:37am
Quoting thadakman
{quote} What makes you say this? I'm still getting 20:1 leverage on USD/RUB. The spread is ridiculous though during certain times, but it's been like that, nothing has changed on that end.
Yea get a swap-free account this buble is still young enough the good and fast part is still ahead in my opinion but after a short break.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDRURWeekly.png Size: 20 KB
  • #234
  • Nov 20, 2014 7:46am Nov 20, 2014 7:46am
Why you have set your 6 point at 43 ? forecast ?

Quoting ottmnslap
{quote} Yea get a swap-free account this buble is still young enough the good and fast part is still ahead in my opinion but after a short break. {image}
  • #235
  • Nov 20, 2014 11:32am Nov 20, 2014 11:32am
Quoting surfeur
Why you have set your 6 point at 43 ? forecast ? {quote}
Just a visual one, i am expecting wave ii. It's more because i feel sure this won't move before 2-4 weeks. I expect either sideways or bear moves for some time before it really catches on. Forget about 43 think of 53+ when it's about to happen. But 43 is good if you like the swap.
  • #236
  • Nov 24, 2014 2:07am Nov 24, 2014 2:07am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I would agree ... . Sanctions are likely to be in play for substantial period of time. You would think that the mere intervention statement would be enough to drive some players out of the market; it may have, since it looks like we're in a bit of choppy consolidation here between 47.75 and 46.50. But this is why I'll wait to wade in at absolute price extremes north of 48, like 48.25 or 48.50, which might motivate a sudden intervention. The RCB is obviously concerned about where the Ruble's at now ... . On the technical side of things, I...
hello fellow traders.

USB/RUB is now below 44.75

reason: CNY rate cut
  • #237
  • Nov 24, 2014 2:44am Nov 24, 2014 2:44am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} hello fellow traders. USB/RUB is now below 44.75 reason: CNY rate cut
Zowie kapowie. The pair never ceases to amaze ... . Oil price correlation my arse ... . So much for all the predictions -- just watch the charts ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #238
  • Nov 24, 2014 3:08am Nov 24, 2014 3:08am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Zowie kapowie. The pair never ceases to amaze ... . Oil price correlation my arse ... . So much for all the predictions -- just watch the charts ... .
44.75 seems to hold...

I have shorts underwater now =/
  • #239
  • Nov 24, 2014 4:26am Nov 24, 2014 4:26am
This was obvious days ago, i'm not surprised at all and I think that this pair will stay in range for days before USD catches on again. Maybe 43 still possible.
  • #240
  • Nov 24, 2014 4:57am Nov 24, 2014 4:57am
I have set
- TP: 43.85
fingers crossed
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