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  • #87,481
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:38pm Nov 13, 2014 7:38pm
Funny how when the bears come out and say their piece... aud starts rallying again
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  • #87,482
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:41pm Nov 13, 2014 7:41pm
Quoting shellsnail
Funny how when the bears come out and say their piece... aud starts rallying again
thats expected nothing wrong with rallying up
good to reload shorts
  • #87,483
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:43pm Nov 13, 2014 7:43pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} thats expected nothing wrong with rallying up
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #87,484
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:46pm Nov 13, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} thats expected nothing wrong with rallying up good to reload shorts
yeah but perhaps the low of the day is in?

statistically speaking, high of the day seems to be in for GBP/AUD.
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  • #87,485
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:54pm Nov 13, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yeah but perhaps the low of the day is in? statistically speaking, high of the day seems to be in for GBP/AUD.
i hope so... still want this baby to get rid of gap level before she dips down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #87,486
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:58pm Nov 13, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} i hope so... still want this baby to get rid of gap level before she dips down {image}
aud/usd is confusing... I half suspect this week is a dead cat bounce and we will see bloodshed next week... (because these kind of patterns are very common on smaller time frames).. I have never seen one on the daily chart though... And then again them big players love to do fake-outs (buy below support) so this could be one of those... in which case given the current momentum it could take off like a rocket...

Next week will be really really key...

In the mean time I just hope the downtrend on gbp/aud carries me to my take profit 400 pips below. (which is equivalent to 200 pip move for other pairs) 10k usd profit waiting for me there
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  • #87,487
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:02pm Nov 13, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} aud/usd is confusing... I half suspect this week is a dead cat bounce and we will see bloodshed next week... But then again them big players love to do fake-outs (buy below support) so this could be one of those... in which case given the current momentum it could take off like a rocket...
well. I personally call audusd stophunt pair have to be tricky with her....or she tricks you

thing is right now this pair going down sharply ... than its takes dayssssss to climb up . once its reach level its down sharply again in no time. than repeat. repeat. someone gonna yell about its going 90 right now ??? with this poor climbing ? ... oh wait......my friend is suspended .....what a sucks ...
  • #87,488
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:19pm Nov 13, 2014 8:19pm
Quoting Rtm
Why even bother trying to long this pair? You have histerical USD just doing its own thing completely sticking out from crowd of other currenncies that are backing down to dovish perspective-interms of monetary to policy. Not only that gold and copper majority of aussie's big commidities taking a beating. Let me give some practical knowledge share that is proven in FX and other places too im sure, the more something continues one way IE the longer a trend goes in its direction, the longer it is likely to continue! Life is so much easier to trade...
so which is it? is the USD gonna rally hard again or not? Your comment has two polar opposite themes in it.

There's a group that doesn't like cheap gas or commodities - and they're between central banks but have deeper pockets than all of us here combined (unless everybody is holding out..) - OIL COMPANIES! You think they like cheap gas? There's only one way to rising prices and it ain't a strong dollar.

My preference is prioritize based on central bank interest rates.

Where's RBA EVEN if they drop?

Where's RBNZ EVEN if they drop?

How quickly do you anticipate the FED raising? Jumping right back to 5.25? ...exactly my point.

As more nations collude against the dollar in favor of dealing directly with each other the USD will SUFFER in this scenario. Heck, last weekend Canada said they were going to start facilitating Canadian businesses dealing directly...

Empires rise and Empires fall.

Do we all miss the boat with such emphasis on fundamentals outside of money flow and interest rates? Don't forget what we're trading - the facilitation of international transactions.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #87,489
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:20pm Nov 13, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} well. I personally call audusd stophunt pair have to be tricky with her....or she tricks you thing is right now this pair going down sharply ... than its takes dayssssss to climb up . once its reach level its down sharply again in no time. than repeat. repeat. someone gonna yell about its going 90 right now ??? with this poor climbing ? ... oh wait......my friend is suspended .....what a sucks ...
Haha interesting... Which pair isn't a stop hunt pair these days :/ I have come to delight in trading these fake bounces/retest/retracements... They give extremely good entry points and often provide nice counter trend profits too.

And 0.9 is very far away... Maybe if this uptrend thing works out, it'll get there.. Let's watch the next couple of hours and see if it recovers to ytd's high. I'm guessing it will... intuitively it feels like gbp/aud gonna do a crazy 400 pip day today (I hope it's in the right direction LOL), partly because it spent the ENTIRE US session consolidating and that is pretty damn rare... But we'll see.

***

and look! we just did an engulfing bar on the 1H chart...
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  • #87,490
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:23pm Nov 13, 2014 8:23pm
it is still holding. just follow the close of the 1H candle. stop loss the low/high of the previous candle. simple.
As Above, So Below
  • #87,491
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:29pm Nov 13, 2014 8:29pm
Come on baby, keep it up, an go higher to fetch me a few pips.
  • #87,492
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:46pm Nov 13, 2014 8:46pm
who can buy a long position at this level against RBA?
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #87,493
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:54pm Nov 13, 2014 8:54pm
Quoting shellsnail
LOL if this goes up then it truly is a stop hunt pair lol... the stop hunters got hunted by the stop hunter hunters...
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #87,494
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:04pm Nov 13, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} so which is it? is the USD gonna rally hard again or not? Your comment has two polar opposite themes in it. There's a group that doesn't like cheap gas or commodities - and they're between central banks but have deeper pockets than all of us here combined (unless everybody is holding out..) - OIL COMPANIES! You think they like cheap gas? There's only one way to rising prices and it ain't a strong dollar. My preference is prioritize based on central bank interest rates. Where's RBA EVEN if they drop? Where's RBNZ EVEN if they drop? How quickly...
You certainly bring some good points to the table Va. Lots that could be discussed here in particular to the OIL and CAD being tied to very closely, well a certain province here in canada mostly. The oil companies and people in oil will just have to get over the fact that there will be peaks and troughs in the market throughout their lifespan.

All im saying is watch risk trends! keep an eye on global equity index like SP500.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #87,495
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:30pm Nov 13, 2014 9:30pm
awwwww i didnt expect such big move down, i stop my short at 1.572

can someone enlighten me with a chart, on the retrace? any possible retrace on the coming levels? and to where it could retrace up to? hehe...

  • #87,496
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:31pm Nov 13, 2014 9:31pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} You certainly bring some good points to the table Va. Lots that could be discussed here in particular to the OIL and CAD being tied to very closely, well a certain province here in canada mostly. The oil companies and people in oil will just have to get over the fact that there will be peaks and troughs in the market throughout their lifespan. All im saying is watch risk trends! keep an eye on global equity index like SP500.
Thanks RTM - something I'm seeing pretty clearly is a lack of typical correlation between /USDs and equities right now.

Hang with me a minute...

So a "tactic" of mine is plotting "distance traveled" according to 30m opens.

An exmple:

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s22/s...14.numbers.png

(Under current conditions, this chart looks opposite right now...keep that in mind as you read further - this is just provided for example sake..)

So, as you plot distances like this and consider a mean that's established by the opening of your choice (daily, weekly, monthly, yearly), between most /USD pairs currently and US equities, both are at polar opposite ends of the spectrum. One is UP and the other has been dipping during a rally of the other. Traditionally, /USDs rise as equities rise and fall as equities fall. For me to make this make more sense, I look at equities as just another currency in the bunch. Money into US equities = dollar sell off (or did...??) - be that as it may, a scenario is in place right now based on this view that opposite is getting closer and closer to taking place: equities dropping to rebuild momentum while /USDs (with +interest leads) rise to "equalize" the two markets as they head in the opposite paradigm for a little while.

Since I'm not loaded with interest in equities markets, my money is on AUD/USD rising to meet the mean of the two correlated markets before all is said and done.

I don't trade under the premise that "the pair needs to move down ___ pips before I start shorting it", I trade under the premise that "the pair has moved it's typical amount of pips in a direction and now has gone further than it usually does so reversal is imminent" along with seeking other related variables like what is described here.

Currently, this pair and other /USDs have been on quite the bearish tear because of the USDX bullish tear. Keep in mind the basket of currencies the USDX is comprised of:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

Take a careful look there - is the AUD or NZD listed? ..and consider which currency carries the heaviest weighting - the EUR - the poster child for unchartered monetary policy.....So how much of an impact will the condition of the USDX have under these conditions?

I agree with you on prioritizing currencies, but lets be real - interest rates. The dollar can clearly kick the EUR's butt right now ESPECIALLY if a rate increase comes to fruition for the USD while the AUD and NZD can tear into the GBP pretty well (as evidenced very clearly over the past couple of days) which seems it would have to wear on the GBPs stance against the USD via the USDX....Get where I'm going with this? (Not sarcastic - just asking to make sure it's clear....)

- interest rates
- money flow
- correlations with other markets and commodities..
- it's really true "the longer things stay the same the more they need to change" so be careful how far into a move you decide to join it....

I liken trading to bowling - you can throw some ugly strikes but at the end of the game the scoreboard doesn't show how poor the shot was. As long as you get direction right from a reasonable point, you'll have plenty to bank.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #87,497
  • Nov 14, 2014 12:44am Nov 14, 2014 12:44am
Nice angle VA
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #87,498
  • Nov 14, 2014 12:55am Nov 14, 2014 12:55am
H1, H4, Weekly and daily are set to go for longs, however, I am not sure about the daily chart. Therefore, it is a wait and see situation for the price. TP=0.90000000000000000000000000000000
  • #87,499
  • Nov 14, 2014 1:30am Nov 14, 2014 1:30am
Quoting Fx-opinion
H1, H4, Weekly and daily are set to go for longs, however, I am not sure about the daily chart. Therefore, it is a wait and see situation for the price. TP=0.90000000000000000000000000000000
you have long position?
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #87,500
  • Nov 14, 2014 1:59am Nov 14, 2014 1:59am
Quoting yunyoungro
{quote} you have long position?
I am very surprised that you are asking me this question. You know very well I am. TP=0.90000000000000000000000000000
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