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AUD/USD

  • #87,461
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:31am Nov 13, 2014 11:31am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} uptrend is still valid
The overall downtrend that started in 2013 is still on.


I wouldn't call rising for 5 days an uptrend lol
  • #87,462
  • Edited 11:57am Nov 13, 2014 11:41am | Edited 11:57am
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These consolidation patterns are powerful stuff...

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Watch for a break above... Or for that matter, below..

***

Aussie going back up it seems, first target should be consolidation zone... price action there will lead the way
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  • #87,463
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:01pm Nov 13, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} The overall downtrend that started in 2013 is still on. I wouldn't call rising for 5 days an uptrend lol
The overall uptrend started in 2008 is still on.
So what now?
your 4H is a whole trend for someone who uses 1 M chart. most people here talk about monthly and weekly charts and if you look at their trades you will see 10 pip stop and 20 pip tp. which means they actually trade 5 M chart
anyway, i trade usually 15 M and the trend is up. the story for me ends here.
As Above, So Below
  • #87,464
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:53pm Nov 13, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} The overall uptrend started in 2008 is still on.
Actually friend, 2008 was the down trend that reversed in march 2009, due mostly to QE by the FED through Aussie CB BORROWING $ through the swap window at the NY Fed.....selling them for liquidity which is why the Big rise. Now the sell off and buy back to pay the DEBT/BORROWED $. The same is the case for all the G7 currencies that took advantage of the reserve currency (lender of last resort) Federal Reserve.
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #87,465
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:53pm Nov 13, 2014 12:53pm
Ok you got me lol. Looks like the 2008 up trend has been doing a U-turn for a while now though. I wonder if it will break that 2008 low during 2015.

I study all TF's, but watch & enter on M1.

IMO it's going to continue declining today, but I could be completely wrong and that's okay too. That's the great thing about trading.
  • #87,466
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:04pm Nov 13, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting teddybomber
Ok you got me lol. Looks like the 2008 up trend has been doing a U-turn for a while now though. I wonder if it will break that 2008 low during 2015. I study all TF's, but watch & enter on M1. IMO it's going to continue declining today, but I could be completely wrong and that's okay too. That's the great thing about trading.
i must say i really do not care what happened a month, a year or 10 yrs ago. as i said, i open my 15 M chart, if i see price moving up i try to buy at cheaper rate, and if moving down sell at higher rate. and of course, i would be lying if i say i do not look at other TFs. sometimes i may switch to lower or higher TFs depending on the market conditions.
As Above, So Below
  • #87,467
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:06pm Nov 13, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting Spartanholds
{quote} Actually friend, 2008 was the down trend that reversed in march 2009, due mostly to QE by the FED through Aussie CB BORROWING $ through the swap window at the NY Fed.....selling them for liquidity which is why the Big rise. Now the sell off and buy back to pay the DEBT/BORROWED $. The same is the case for all the G7 currencies that took advantage of the reserve currency (lender of last resort) Federal Reserve.
you did not get it. WHY did i bring up this?
I will make it even easier to understand: EVERYTHING and ANYTHING in this universe is actually ONE thing. everything repeats itself and made of itself. infinite trends within trends, waves within waves. just like your nerve cells and the galaxies, the atom and the sun. fractals.
who cares if downtrend or uptrend started in 2008 or 2009 and how this will make your trade with a duration of a few hours better?
As Above, So Below
  • #87,468
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:20pm Nov 13, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you did not get it. WHY did i bring up this? I will make it even easier to understand: EVERYTHING and ANYTHING in this universe is actually ONE thing. everything repeats itself and made of itself. infinite trends within trends, waves within waves. just like your nerve cells and the galaxies, the atom and the sun. fractals. who cares if downtrend or uptrend started in 2008 or 2009 and how this will make your trade with a duration of a few hours better?
You are right ....who cares...different strokes for different folks...didn't mean to start a pissing contest.
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #87,469
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:27pm Nov 13, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Spartanholds
{quote} You are right ....who cares...different strokes for different folks...didn't mean to start a pissing contest.
exactly. that is why there is so much confusion and everybody thinks other people are wrong if they think differently.
the truth is everybody is right at the same time even though they just entered opposite trades. because there will be always definitely a trend they are trading with no matter what.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW.
As Above, So Below
  • #87,470
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:04pm Nov 13, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} exactly. that is why there is so much confusion and everybody thinks other people are wrong if they think differently. the truth is everybody is right at the same time even though they just entered opposite trades. because there will be always definitely a trend they are trading with no matter what. AS ABOVE, SO BELOW.
  • #87,471
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:39pm Nov 13, 2014 2:39pm
we need FO back
  • #87,472
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:46pm Nov 13, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} exactly. that is why there is so much confusion and everybody thinks other people are wrong if they think differently. the truth is everybody is right at the same time even though they just entered opposite trades. because there will be always definitely a trend they are trading with no matter what. AS ABOVE, SO BELOW.
Very true. I personally, am long on this pair, but thats because I trade the highest tfs and dont have time to sit in front of a monitor.Ol' fx-opinion (bless him!) shouted 0.9. I'll be more interested at what happens around 0.95.If that goes bullish I'd expect it to sail through parity and it will be interesting to see how dedicated the RBA are at defending 1.05 . I'd be surprised to see this happen in less than 12 months but you never know.USDX is looking very tired.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #87,473
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:49pm Nov 13, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Very true. I persnally, am long on this pair, but thats because I trade the highest tfs and dont have time to sit in front of a monitor.Ol' fx-opinion (bless him!) shouted 0.9. I'll be more interested at what happens around 0.95.If that goes bullish I'd expect it to sail through parity and it will be interesting to see how dedicated the RBA are at defending 1.05 . I'd be surprised to see this happen in less than 12 months but you never know.USDX is looking very tired.
Operating on a similar premise here....and interested in RBAs next move - they're getting backed into a corner pretty good it seems...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #87,474
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:53pm Nov 13, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting Jenx
{quote} Very true. I persnally, am long on this pair, but thats because I trade the highest tfs and dont have time to sit in front of a monitor.Ol' fx-opinion (bless him!) shouted 0.9. I'll be more interested at what happens around 0.95.If that goes bullish I'd expect it to sail through parity and it will be interesting to see how dedicated the RBA are at defending 1.05 . I'd be surprised to see this happen in less than 12 months but you never know.USDX is looking very tired.
Well, one thing is interesting still: Fundamentals do not seem to favour the Aussie and the USD has been on a serious climb for months. USD/JPY is said to go to 1.20 - that would really be crazy, but it might happen. On the other hand: If a big selling panic grabs the USD market ... nevertheless, I think Aussie will at least test the recent low and even make a new one before a serious upmove. It looks very bearish on ALMOST all time frames ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #87,475
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:07pm Nov 13, 2014 3:07pm
is there life on Jupiter yet ? :nerd:
  • #87,476
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:11pm Nov 13, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting Lamira
is there life on Jupiter yet ? :nerd:
No idea but I heard the moon invited AUD to a party this month. You know AUD, she's being all coy about it.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #87,477
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:47pm Nov 13, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Lamira
is there life on Jupiter yet ? :nerd:
we may seach it through wormhole near Saturnus into another Galaxy
  • #87,478
  • Nov 13, 2014 4:28pm Nov 13, 2014 4:28pm
Why even bother trying to long this pair? You have histerical USD just doing its own thing completely sticking out from crowd of other currenncies that are backing down to dovish perspective-interms of monetary to policy. Not only that gold and copper majority of aussie's big commidities taking a beating. Let me give some practical knowledge share that is proven in FX and other places too im sure, the more something continues one way IE the longer a trend goes in its direction, the longer it is likely to continue!
Life is so much easier to trade on what you KNOW than to try and say oh that trend is going to end and we going to see a reversal. Look at the numbers coming out of US, even bad numbers cant touch this the fucking thing! THAT alone should be convincing enough not to fight it.
In theory AUD should get a bounce IMO but USD just so strong RELATIVE to others that is cant keep up.
We have a currency WAR going on and CNY is number one, USD 2nd and who the fuck cares who is 3rd lol Japan probably if it wernt for Abenumbnuts..

Everyone just waiting for the rate hike on USD, when that happens USD will probably see nice big rally then from there who knows. Can it sustain that growth and continue and maintain hawkish, THAT is a very low probability long term as we know USD is reserve currency and it relies on consuming so it need to keep its value low.

The other main thing helping US is the oil supply, US + cheap oil= great consumer economy! Ask any american who doesnt love cheap gas? Here in canada I know we have an app that looks for cheapest gas lol and credit cards that give you so many cents off per litre.


-Only apply edges you know work in FX, discretion will leave you in the dust
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #87,479
  • Nov 13, 2014 4:29pm Nov 13, 2014 4:29pm
thats my BABY !!!!

didnt even look at aud yet
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  • #87,480
  • Nov 13, 2014 5:00pm Nov 13, 2014 5:00pm
AUD .8700

US dollar buying continues ahead of G20 plus its gathering momentum that the fed will normalize interest rates sooner rather than later.

The only safer play I can foresee from those stubborn AUD bulls is to be long against a cross and not the USD.

Lets see how this weekend pans out but the focus will be on world growth and that should give the US dollar another kick start..
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