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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,201
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:53pm Nov 13, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting benaiah
Word of caution, at least in my opinion... If price cannot stay above 181.75 within the next 1.5 hours, expect heavy short selling in the near future. It would (if NY daily close below this level) be the lowest NY daily close in 8-9 days, and a breakout on the downside of inside bar, as well as breakout of 9 days of consolidation. However, if price stays above this level, then... BUY, BUY, BUY add: would also like to see price above 181.93 for confirmation of bullish view...
I'd say a movement of nearly 300 pips within the next few trading days, no? Whether it goes back up to 184 and beyond, or down to 179, I'm actually looking forward to this.
  • #16,202
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:54pm Nov 13, 2014 1:54pm
Quoting benaiah
Word of caution, at least in my opinion... If price cannot stay above 181.75 within the next 1.5 hours, expect heavy short selling in the near future. It would (if NY daily close below this level) be the lowest NY daily close in 8-9 days, and a breakout on the downside of inside bar, as well as breakout of 9 days of consolidation. However, if price stays above this level, then... BUY, BUY, BUY add: would also like to see price above 181.93 for confirmation of bullish view...

missed it again...
  • #16,203
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:57pm Nov 13, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting benaiah
Word of caution, at least in my opinion... If price cannot stay above 181.75 within the next 1.5 hours, expect heavy short selling in the near future. It would (if NY daily close below this level) be the lowest NY daily close in 8-9 days, and a breakout on the downside of inside bar, as well as breakout of 9 days of consolidation. However, if price stays above this level, then... BUY, BUY, BUY add: would also like to see price above 181.93 for confirmation of bullish view...
A lot of analysts/pundits are prophesying that Usd/Jpy is going to 120...with the strong coorelation between these two pairs which Gbp/Jpy is a derivative. More than likely these prophecies will become an"all self-fulfilling" dream.
  • #16,204
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:57pm Nov 13, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'd say a movement of nearly 300 pips within the next few trading days, no? Whether it goes back up to 184 and beyond, or down to 179, I'm actually looking forward to this.
  • #16,205
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:59pm Nov 13, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting MudraGuru
{quote} missed it again...
But I applaud your discipline.

However, still plenty of trading opportunities still available around current levels, depending primarily on NY daily close (as posted)....
  • #16,206
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:01pm Nov 13, 2014 2:01pm
Any short entry should be temporary and the optimal position to build for the long term would be long positions based on the trend. The weekly retracements down may start much more aggressively next week, perhaps a flight to safe haven or a sell off in the equities market may trigger it. Who knows , all we can do is participate and catch the wave.

I used to hate trading fridays but I love it because it might be the best time to take advantage of inconsistencies in the market. Will be looking forward to tomorrow
  • #16,207
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:07pm Nov 13, 2014 2:07pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} A lot of analysts/pundits are prophesying that Usd/Jpy is going to 120...with the strong coorelation between these two pairs which Gbp/Jpy is a derivative. More than likely these prophecies will become an"all self-fulfilling" dream.
Interesting. I have employed currency correlation a little bit in my trading, with some success, but not enough to "always" use it.

It would look like to me that EJ and GJ would be more correlated than GJ and UJ. Reason I would think this is that generally speaking, the USD is more likely to be traded for or against by all pairs. So, if USD strength is going up or down, it would have affect on USDJPY many times and maybe not affecting EJ and GJ.

Anyway, just my thoughts on this. Has it been your experience that GJ/UJ are more correlated than EJ/GJ?

Edit:Fixed typo
  • #16,208
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:12pm Nov 13, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} But I applaud your discipline. However, still plenty of trading opportunities still available around current levels, depending primarily on NY daily close (as posted)....

u r right... i bought in small lot sizes around 181.60 - 65 - 70 and made profit...

but my real deal is sitting at 181.45.. and i missed it..

i think i should be away from trading for some time and wait to see how it is going to unfold
  • #16,209
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:17pm Nov 13, 2014 2:17pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=513169
Build good relationships with others.
  • #16,210
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:44pm Nov 13, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Interesting. I have employed currency correlation a little bit in my trading, with some success, but not enough to "always" use it. It would look like to me that EJ and GJ would be more correlated than GJ and UJ. Reason I would think this is that generally speaking, the USD is more likely to be traded for or against by all pairs. So, if USD strength is going up or down, it would have affect on USDJPY many times and maybe not affecting EJ and GJ. Anyway, just my thoughts on this. Has it been your experience that GJ/UJ are more correlated...
I have traded the Gbp/Jpy almost exclusively for about 2 years and through out the time Ive had Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy open on seperate charts just to see if they all agree in direction and turning points. I can say hands down that Gj/UJ definitely more correlated than EJ/GJ. Eur/Jpy' s direction is a little susceptible to a strong Eur/Usd movement, just my unconscious perception from experience.
  • #16,211
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:51pm Nov 13, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} I have traded the Gbp/Jpy almost exclusively for about 2 years and through out the time Ive had Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy open on seperate charts just to see if they all agree in direction and turning points. I can say hands down that Gj/UJ definitely more correlated than EJ/GJ. Eur/Jpy' s direction is a little susceptible to a strong Eur/Usd movement, just my unconscious perception from experience.
Oh, okay, thanks for the input. And primarily what charting time frame are you speaking of?
  • #16,212
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:10pm Nov 13, 2014 3:10pm
Just about ready for a 40-50 pip rise. Just need to get over the 181.93 hurdle...
  • #16,213
  • Nov 13, 2014 4:10pm Nov 13, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} I have traded the Gbp/Jpy almost exclusively for about 2 years and through out the time Ive had Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy open on seperate charts just to see if they all agree in direction and turning points. I can say hands down that Gj/UJ definitely more correlated than EJ/GJ. Eur/Jpy' s direction is a little susceptible to a strong Eur/Usd movement, just my unconscious perception from experience.
Agreed I don't even put EJ on my chart list, Id rather use AJ or UJ. EJ can mirror EU to often.
  • #16,214
  • Nov 13, 2014 4:46pm Nov 13, 2014 4:46pm
no need for commenting this...

Daily correlation chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Xf6e9Es.png Size: 223 KB
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #16,215
  • Nov 13, 2014 6:58pm Nov 13, 2014 6:58pm
For an E wave count, we're smack in the middle of my extending major wave three......good place to be.....

For this PA to be a valid extending 3.....we need to see ABC patterns in 1-3 and 5 of wave three.....gets picky,I know.....
  • #16,216
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:13pm Nov 13, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
For an E wave count, we're smack in the middle of my extending major wave three......good place to be..... For this PA to be a valid extending 3.....we need to see ABC patterns in 1-3 and 5 of wave three.....gets picky,I know.....

extending wave 3? which one.. can you please post a pic
  • #16,217
  • Edited Nov 14, 2014 12:42am Nov 13, 2014 7:55pm | Edited Nov 14, 2014 12:42am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi MPT, you have an example or maybe picture? Your statement got me curious, since I have no clue of EW. Thanks.
Hi mate. In recent times, the one that shines as the best example was 176.1. You had that down as a point of interest and from a wave point of view, that was a point that was exactly 500 pips above the low at 171. The prior wave 169 to 173 was also 500 in length and from an EW perspective, there was a good likelihood that two waves of equal length would terminate there as the end of a correction up from 168. The next possible place was around 179.1 ish, representing a 1.618 extension.

175.9 was also the 61.8 retrace of the move 180.6 to 168 AND was also the top of the daily ichimoku cloud - the bottom of which sat, from memory at about 175.1 - so when that was broken, all suggestions pointed to resistance at the TOP, being 176.

Not that you'll probably be bothered to, but if you one day analysed some of your key levels - particularly the extreme event ones- you may find either a plain numerical relationship, or, quite likely, some degree of Fibonacci relationship, based around multiples or divisions of .618 or 1.618.

Who knows why these 'magic' numbers work, but they appear to do so more often than not. On an amusing note, last year as GJ was climbing up through 167 en route 174.8, it even paused for quite some time at a place that, with respect to previous distant lows, came up as an extension multiplier with a value equalling 3.14!
  • #16,218
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:14pm Nov 13, 2014 8:14pm
GJ currently struggling to stay above the weekly candle open price might the bears be hungry for steak?
  • #16,219
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:20pm Nov 13, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting js5020
GJ currently struggling to stay above the weekly candle open price might the bears be hungry for steak?
The weekly candle is about to start looking like crap
  • #16,220
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:25pm Nov 13, 2014 8:25pm
Looking at the monthly "areas", it looked like our recent highs pierced into a new "area" and pulled back to current "area" twice now,,,, maybe I looked till I found what I wanted to see and then again maybe we might see a pullback?
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