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The similarity system

  • #12,181
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:13am Nov 13, 2014 3:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-armada-markets factory.png Size: 166 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-armada-markets factory.png Size: 166 KB
  • #12,182
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:40am Nov 13, 2014 3:40am
Another thinking for the call
The AUC (area under the curve ) is 98% above 1.2440 and roughly 2% of the area under 1.2440
we can measure the AUC by connecting between candles high above the Quotes (1.2440 ) and the lows of the candles under the quotes )
i'm not a programmer but i use my eyes to predict the balance between buyer and seller and we can use any indicator specially MACD
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #12,183
  • Nov 13, 2014 3:43am Nov 13, 2014 3:43am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} That is another way to see it too. The think is for "closing prices". so for the period of 270 mins, eurusd was expected to close above 1.24400 98% of the time. At the end of the period, the probability is still 98% but then that means that there is still a 2% chance it may end lower at the end!
I want more brain power!
  • #12,184
  • Nov 13, 2014 5:07am Nov 13, 2014 5:07am
For me, perhaps this approach is better!

Rsi Cii DS. Wait price above or below BB sell or buy in the day. It 'so good?
thanks

Geros
Annulla modifiche
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m15-armada-markets factory.png Size: 164 KB
  • #12,185
  • Edited 7:09am Nov 13, 2014 6:43am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting Eurusdd
some of you are quite funny: But i learned one thing. Keep your calls to yourself! I have given enough! The problem lies in Probability:: John: "The probability a prime number, chosen randomly, is odd is 100%, almost surely" Peter: "This John guy is WRONG, silly" Samuel: "Peter, why?" Peter: "2 is a prime number and it is even. So his probability is wrong. I just got 2 as an outcome. It is not supposed to happen" GOD: "Some humans are silly. Why did I make them?" Moral of the story: even a 0% event can occur. It depends on what set has measure zero....


Edited.

Did you estimate the Measure of inexctness for your calculations presented in the last picture of probability distribution?

What if you have the Measure of inexctness > 2%, did you think of it?

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #12,186
  • Edited 7:50am Nov 13, 2014 7:15am | Edited 7:50am
I'm bearish E/U..lets see..

Edit well meh, lousy news
I want more brain power!
  • #12,187
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:30am Nov 13, 2014 7:30am
Attached Image
  • #12,188
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:41am Nov 13, 2014 7:41am
I don't understand why we excpect the zone above A to be recurrent. Let's assume next bar clears transient zone and closes above, then the zone above A will be transient not recurrent (zone between new bar's high and previous bar's high).

Explanation of why EURUSD says we expect the zone eabove to be recurrent ?
Attached Image
  • #12,189
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:41am Nov 13, 2014 7:41am
THE CAME IN LATE. I think the servers at FF was overloaded! bye
  • #12,190
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:03am Nov 13, 2014 8:03am
Quoting FranklinHood
I don't understand why we excpect the zone above A to be recurrent. Let's assume next bar clears transient zone and closes above, then the zone above A will be transient not recurrent (zone between new bar's high and previous bar's high). Explanation of why EURUSD says we expect the zone eabove to be recurrent ? {image}
When the next bar closes above A then A would be recurrent and you could paint a new potential TZ on the new bar and you could assume it to be a TZ. If price stays below then you could declare it as a potential TZ.
If the bar in the image has not closed yet and the price had gone through, you could declare it as potential mid TZ.
  • #12,191
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:43am Nov 13, 2014 8:43am
when the period ends, the up is not sustainable! it is building up a return momentum! see u at the end!
  • #12,192
  • Nov 13, 2014 8:57am Nov 13, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Eurusdd
when the period ends, the up is not sustainable! it is building up a return momentum! see u at the end!
hello master

maybeto correct DS at 1.2468-1.2455?
its right?
  • #12,193
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:38am Nov 13, 2014 9:38am
Quoting Eurusdd
when the period ends, the up is not sustainable! it is building up a return momentum! see u at the end!
These calls are gold. Another "high frequency" setup today for me. Bias for either direction begins at 1.2470, and frequency increases linearly with any move away from 1.2470, with 2X frequency being reached at 1.2490 for shorts and 1.2440 for longs.

Still working on M1 TZ programs - update for the last 24 hrs: Same strategy as last update. Net for 24hrs was 742 pts, but 25 potential entries, so equivalent to +30 pts if trading single entry. Best trade overnight was GA sell from 1.8075 (1st entry) to 1.8023 (all exit). Optimizing this now as it seems a candidate to ramp up a bit.

New possibilities: Goal: More trades for a flatter equity curve. Will update with trade parameters and results, good or bad.
  • #12,194
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:41am Nov 13, 2014 9:41am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} These calls are gold. Another "high frequency" setup today for me. Bias for either direction begins at 1.2470, and frequency increases linearly with any move away from 1.2470, with 2X frequency being reached at 1.2490 for shorts and 1.2440 for longs. Still working on M1 TZ programs - update for the last 24 hrs: Same strategy as last update. Net for 24hrs was 742 pts, but 25 potential entries, so equivalent to +30 pts if trading single entry. Best trade overnight was GA sell from 1.8075 (1st entry) to 1.8023 (all exit). Optimizing this now...
Barbaresco: a 2% event occurred yesterday and so, this call is expected to be a high-probability trade!
Well that is my last one this week!
  • #12,195
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:42am Nov 13, 2014 10:42am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}Barbaresco: a 2% event occurred yesterday and so, this call is expected to be a high-probability trade! Well that is my last one this week!
Did fine even with the rare occurrence yesterday. A typical day will be bliss!

For those watching, I just moved my Bias line to 1.2450 for the remainder of EURUSDD's call. Not sure if anyone cares so I won't update if other changes are made. Point was to demonstrate a different, profitable, and low-risk way to trade a call structured like EURUSDD's.
  • #12,196
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:47am Nov 13, 2014 10:47am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote}Barbaresco: a 2% event occurred yesterday and so, this call is expected to be a high-probability trade! Well that is my last one this week!


Damn, I wish I knew how you pull those probabilities. I trade binary options. I just place a put OTM binary position EUR/USD> 1.2480 for 3:00PM. How do you do that? Good probabilities. Thanks.
  • #12,197
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:21am Nov 13, 2014 11:21am
For those of you who do not understand probability and therefore post silly comments always, let me help you understand what this picture means.
Attached Image


the period is 480 mins for closing prices. Therefore, if your time frame is 1min say, then you are looking at 480 bars. 97% of the time, a bar will close above 1.24322.
It does not mean that a bar can never close below 1.24322 within the time period. The statement says that 97% of the time, a bar on your 1min chart will close above 1.24322.
Now, if the last bar on your chart, for the time given, closes below 1.24322 it does not make the call wrong! That event has 3% chance of occurring! On average 3% means that out of 480 bars, 14 of them are expected to close below 1.24322. If you are lucky, none of them will.

The same idea applies if you choose timeframe 1hr say. In this case you are looking at 8 bars.......
  • #12,198
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:38am Nov 13, 2014 11:38am
Quoting PipitoGrillo
{quote} When the next bar closes above A then A would be recurrent and you could paint a new potential TZ on the new bar and you could assume it to be a TZ. If price stays below then you could declare it as a potential TZ. If the bar in the image has not closed yet and the price had gone through, you could declare it as potential mid TZ.
What about that ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic2.png Size: 178 KB
  • #12,199
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:51am Nov 13, 2014 11:51am
Quoting Eurusdd
For those of you who do not understand probability and therefore post silly comments always, let me help you understand what this picture means. {image} the period is 480 mins for closing prices. Therefore, if your time frame is 1min say, then you are looking at 480 bars. 97% of the time, a bar will close above 1.24322. It does not mean that a bar can never close below 1.24322 within the time period. The statement says that 97% of the time, a bar on your 1min chart will close above 1.24322. Now, if the last bar on your chart, for the time given,...
And currently, price has spent "enough" time in the upper half of the probabilities...
  • #12,200
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:09pm Nov 13, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} And currently, price has spent "enough" time in the upper half of the probabilities...
You are right Barbaresco. Take the bias into consideration too!
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