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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,181
  • Nov 13, 2014 5:52am Nov 13, 2014 5:52am
By the way, I'm not posing this question because I'm a know-it all, nor wanting to come across as a total wanker. But I think it is a valid point/question. There is no reason why price cannot still push up into resistance herein and make new highs, but should it be done, I suggest it may soon (or then) fall way back into what it considers monthly support. At this time, that's below 168.
  • #16,182
  • Nov 13, 2014 5:55am Nov 13, 2014 5:55am
Quoting 4xNewGuy
{quote} Here's my look at the 4h chart. It could be this, or it could be that point where you totally disregard what I'm showing. There's also the possibility of 183.94 being a flat top resistance. Market also made a strong move at 182.000. It temporarily broke that level, so it also could be a sign of..... lol, I don't even want to speculate right now. I'm just going to get some more sleep. I'm just waking up from having a bottle of wine, and a half bottle of vodka. So my opinion is a bit skewed right now. My overall opinion,...
You bad person. Wine AND vodka. Because of our time difference, I usually post here whilst drinking wine - but not tonight.
  • #16,183
  • Nov 13, 2014 6:13am Nov 13, 2014 6:13am
Quoting MudraGuru
{quote} i was wrong( on short term) but as per my analysis the pair is still in correction... the move upto 182.77 was the end of B wave, currently it is in C wave of correction and now it should go to 181.40-70 area before it starts moving towards north... as per trading is concern i m out of it for the time being... and will take buy positions in the above mentioned range with SL @ 181.00 and TP above 185.00.. i would like to know other's view.... is there anyone who uses EW for trading
I do, amongst other things, but I often disregard lots of EW analysis that's based on short TFs. Wave c it is in right now. BUT, wave C does not necessary mean it will be abridged and become wave 5. Wave c could, in theory, take this thing down x thousand pips. Not saying it will, but wave 5 could technically already be complete.

For what its worth, this move from 168 was EXACTLY equal in length to the move up to 133.5, which is often considered wave 1.

But please don't allow my rambling to affect your view.
  • #16,184
  • Nov 13, 2014 6:24am Nov 13, 2014 6:24am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I do, amongst other things, but I often disregard lots of EW analysis that's based on short TFs. Wave c it is in right now. BUT, wave C does not necessary mean it will be abridged and become wave 5. Wave c could, in theory, take this thing down x thousand pips. Not saying it will, but wave 5 could technically already be complete. For what its worth, this move from 168 was EXACTLY equal in length to the move up to 133.5, which is often considered wave 1. But please don't allow my rambling to affect your view.
thanks for sharing your views.. you might be correct that 5th has already been completed.

But when I think about it from open mind, i see an opportunity, as per my count it is still in wave 2 of wave 5 as long as it does not break 181.07( which should be the start of wave 5)...

BTW EW is infamous fro offering many trading ideas at the same time and thats the reason i m out of trading for the time being... but no doubt i will take a buy position in 181.40 - 70 area ....

i might catch the 3rd wave or i may loose 70 pips, at the most..
  • #16,185
  • Nov 13, 2014 6:36am Nov 13, 2014 6:36am
Quoting MudraGuru
{quote} thanks for sharing your views.. you might be correct that 5th has already been completed. But when I think about it from open mind, i see an opportunity, as per my count it is still in wave 2 of wave 5 as long as it does not break 181.07( which should be the start of wave 5)... BTW EW is infamous fro offering many trading ideas at the same time and thats the reason i m out of trading for the time being... but no doubt i will take a buy position in 181.40 - 70 area .... i might catch the 3rd wave or i may loose 70 pips, at the most..
No worries. Most folks who don't get EW consider it a load of rubbish, BUT, as someone said recently, it's more an art of EXCLUDING various options, so in that context, you run with an option until proved wrong. Such was my 183.8 point yesterday. There are always multiple options in any count, but it's curious how price will react one way or another at specific points. It really is not much different to Fxray's decision points - in fact they're often pretty much the same.
  • #16,186
  • Nov 13, 2014 6:45am Nov 13, 2014 6:45am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No worries. Most folks who don't get EW consider it a load of rubbish, BUT, as someone said recently, it's more an art of EXCLUDING various options, so in that context, you run with an option until proved wrong. Such was my 183.8 point yesterday. There are always multiple options in any count, but it's curious how price will react one way or another at specific points. It really is not much different to Fxray's decision points - in fact they're often pretty much the same.

very true...

u said it correctly that one should take a stand until he is proven wrong....... 181.07 will prove me wrong and i have to make a fresh analysis...

happy trading Mpt... i am normally an impatient person but learning to be patient lets see if it pays me or charges another tuition fee... LoL
  • #16,187
  • Nov 13, 2014 7:53am Nov 13, 2014 7:53am
Dahanggg....same pattern at lunch in Tokyo....again....
  • #16,188
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:25am Nov 13, 2014 9:25am
W1 CHART. upper TL short set up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: f4abe70a2790304bd810402b96979769.png Size: 74 KB
  • #16,189
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:09am Nov 13, 2014 10:09am
Quoting Fx-gtg
W1 CHART. upper TL short set up {image}
I have to say, as things stand now, I agree on potential short bias, but only if today's NY daily close beaks out of the inside bar range...

If it stays in the range, I think it could go either way. And the longer it stays in that range, the further it will go when it finally does decide to break out...
  • #16,190
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:13am Nov 13, 2014 10:13am
Quoting IveGotQuads
entry @ 182.24 15 min chart below ... done for the day good luck to all {image}
Took a 1.2% loss there...no biggies. Took a trade I would normally take and took short profits according to the present information, in 20/20 hindsight could have gleaned more pips from the market but overall this week it was positive. Hopefully the market breaks out of this choppy range...hope you guys peeled greens. Later
  • #16,191
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:22am Nov 13, 2014 10:22am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No worries. Most folks who don't get EW consider it a load of rubbish, BUT, as someone said recently, it's more an art of EXCLUDING various options, so in that context, you run with an option until proved wrong. Such was my 183.8 point yesterday. There are always multiple options in any count, but it's curious how price will react one way or another at specific points. It really is not much different to Fxray's decision points - in fact they're often pretty much the same.
Hi MPT,

you have an example or maybe picture? Your statement got me curious, since I have no clue of EW. Thanks.
  • #16,192
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:25am Nov 13, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Dahanggg....same pattern at lunch in Tokyo....again....
And that pattern is?
  • #16,193
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:50am Nov 13, 2014 10:50am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Dahanggg....same pattern at lunch in Tokyo....again....
Are you talking about this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5.png Size: 44 KB
  • #16,194
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:25am Nov 13, 2014 11:25am
its too bad to test the patience of an impatient guy....
GJ is now crossing limits
  • #16,195
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:34am Nov 13, 2014 11:34am
Quoting MudraGuru
its too bad to test the patience of an impatient guy.... GJ is now crossing limits
You've just said exactly what I want to say.
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
  • #16,196
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:38am Nov 13, 2014 11:38am
Quoting JasmineQu
{quote} You've just said exactly what I want to say.

ha ha ha.... i have never waited for a price this long.... my buy limit is at 181.45 , it came close enough to just shake hands and left in a jiffy, twice already...
  • #16,197
  • Nov 13, 2014 11:56am Nov 13, 2014 11:56am
Looks like a lot of buying at the 8 ema on the daily chart. Although possible (obviously) for it to break, probably not likely, since it corresponds to demand area, and we are in a strong uptrend...

But if it does fall through, I would not be buying until I see bottom form, since next level of support on the daily chart is like 200 pips down...

add: plus at or just barely below the daily inside bar lower boundary, which would seem a good place to buy, (with tight SL), but again, if it falls through, I'd wait for a bottom...
  • #16,198
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:33pm Nov 13, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting MudraGuru
{quote} ha ha ha.... i have never waited for a price this long.... my buy limit is at 181.45 , it came close enough to just shake hands and left in a jiffy, twice already...
Looks like you may get your buy price
  • #16,199
  • Nov 13, 2014 12:37pm Nov 13, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Looks like you may get your buy price

amen
  • #16,200
  • Edited 2:08pm Nov 13, 2014 1:35pm | Edited 2:08pm
Word of caution, at least in my opinion...

If price cannot stay above 181.75 within the next 1.5 hours, expect heavy short selling in the near future. It would (if NY daily close below this level) be the lowest NY daily close in 8-9 days, and a breakout on the downside of inside bar, as well as breakout of 9 days of consolidation.

However, if price stays above this level, then... BUY, BUY, BUY

add: would also like to see price above 181.93 for confirmation of bullish view...
Edit: Time frame above should have been 2.5 hours, not 1.5
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