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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,141
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:51pm Nov 12, 2014 6:51pm
Wow, not often that this pair will put you to sleep, but right now, it is such a sleeper, it's killing me...

I am still long on this thing, since it is at the bottom of the range. Could very well break out lower, and I'll just close out or let tight SL run it's course, and get in at a better price. The R:R right now for a long position is just too good to pass up...
  • #16,142
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:06pm Nov 12, 2014 7:06pm
Quoting benaiah
Wow, not often that this pair will put you to sleep, but right now, it is such a sleeper, it's killing me... .
It's been dancing around the 182 support for over 14 hours....and this is supposed to be the infamous GBP/JPY; the "dragon".

Edit: I'm somewhat scared now....the price is going to move by a substantial amount. Better not get caught against the trend...
  • #16,143
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:13pm Nov 12, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Gah...I hate sitting right now, but given the rapid volatility at the support (as well as the increased spreads), I'm sitting here twiddling my thumbs and staring at my short..... Mpt, speaking of which, are you holding onto shorts or longs right now?
Short right now, but could be wrong.
  • #16,144
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:17pm Nov 12, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} It's been dancing around the 182 support for over 14 hours....and this is supposed to be the infamous GBP/JPY; the "dragon". Edit: I'm somewhat scared now....the price is going to move by a substantial amount. Better not get caught against the trend...
More like a little scared lizard than a dragon so far,, check your account values they wont be the same 24 h from now
  • #16,145
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:28pm Nov 12, 2014 7:28pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} It's been dancing around the 182 support for over 14 hours....and this is supposed to be the infamous GBP/JPY; the "dragon". Edit: I'm somewhat scared now....the price is going to move by a substantial amount. Better not get caught against the trend...
Ha ha, yes. Right now a sleeping dragon

About to awaken and start wiping out SLs...
  • #16,146
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:31pm Nov 12, 2014 7:31pm
AND...

Been in a 200 pip range for past 8 days or so. Once that range breaks, should be fun
  • #16,147
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:35pm Nov 12, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting benaiah
Wow, not often that this pair will put you to sleep, but right now, it is such a sleeper, it's killing me... I am still long on this thing, since it is at the bottom of the range. Could very well break out lower, and I'll just close out or let tight SL run it's course, and get in at a better price. The R:R right now for a long position is just too good to pass up...
If I choose to go long... I like the 181.60/80 zone where I will look for a reversal back into the main bullish trend. On that note this may draw towards the 1hrly 200 EMA @ 181.40 since this is what a lot of traders use, Situation where a lot of peoples opinions become a self fulfilling prophecy. Bears are safe if price doesn't close above 182.50...a good place to look for shorting opportunities. At the end of the day we don't move markets but having a plan and preparing for scenarios protect us from bad decisions.
  • #16,148
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:46pm Nov 12, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} If I choose to go long... I like the 181.60/80 zone where I will look for a reversal back into the main bullish trend. On that note this may draw towards the 1hrly 200 EMA @ 181.40 since this is what a lot of traders use, Situation where a lot of peoples opinions become a self fulfilling prophecy. Bears are safe if price doesn't close above 182.50...a good place to look for shorting opportunities. At the end of the day we don't move markets but having a plan and preparing for scenarios protect us from bad decisions.
It appears to me that a reversal is occurring right now. It's not the typical kind I usually trade, but somewhat of a "W" formation, with a lot of bullish looking consolidation. I expect it to go much higher than 182.5.

I acknowledge your 181.6 and would definitely love to go long there if it drops. Somehow I don't think it will drop. At least not yet.

I expect a nice push up first, then look for 181.6. But who knows?

One thing I keep looking at is the fact that we are in an inside bar on the daily chart. Of course, it could break out, or false break, and whatever. But the bottom range of this mother bar is a bit higher than the last one. I don't expect it to break down again. But if it does break down, maybe go to 179. Again, can't really predict for sure, just trade what I see happening now... And it looks like it wants to go up. We'll see...
  • #16,149
  • Nov 12, 2014 8:27pm Nov 12, 2014 8:27pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} It's been dancing around the 182 support for over 14 hours....and this is supposed to be the infamous GBP/JPY; the "dragon". Edit: I'm somewhat scared now....the price is going to move by a substantial amount. Better not get caught against the trend...
To be fair, it jumped up 280 pips, then dropped 280 pips over the span of about 36 hours. That's pretty dragon-ish if you ask me.

What's surprised me is the movement after the BoE news drop. As expected, the news came out and it dropped quite a bit. But it usually stays pretty flat after a big drop like that. Like 10-15 pips from the low, with little to no interest in moving it.

This time around, it's already gone 70 pips above where it bottomed out at.

It seems to be wedging on the 15m right now. Still a long ways to go in that wedge from what I see. Might see something happen around when new york opens about 11 hours from now. If it breaks north, looks like it's going bull again. If it breaks south, and starts tapping a line I'm seeing around 182, it'll shape up into a flat bottom triangle, and we'd be likely to see a bear move eventually, but it might take the rest of the week, possibly even into next week to break that level and start moving down, as there is a lot more room in the triangle than the wedge.
  • #16,150
  • Nov 12, 2014 8:44pm Nov 12, 2014 8:44pm
AJ + NJ pulling off there highs, maybe the dragon will stir?
  • #16,151
  • Nov 12, 2014 9:17pm Nov 12, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting js5020
AJ + NJ pulling off there highs, maybe the dragon will stir?
Looking at EJ... Seems a little more decisive in terms of direction, pointing up. Will GJ follow?
  • #16,152
  • Nov 12, 2014 9:39pm Nov 12, 2014 9:39pm
Price suddenly jumped 40pips. Why? The U.K. RICS house price balance fell just now (announcement came around 3 hours ago). Is there some other fundamental I haven't heard of?
  • #16,153
  • Nov 12, 2014 9:48pm Nov 12, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Vermillion
Price suddenly jumped 40pips. Why? The U.K. RICS house price balance fell just now (announcement came around 3 hours ago). Is there some other fundamental I haven't heard of?
I guess I'm too focused on price movement, when it comes to the question "why?". I care about what goes on in the world, but when it comes to trading, I really don't care why the price moves. Makes it easier to make trading decisions. I don't have to consider anything, except what I see the price doing...

What the price is doing right now, is exactly what I expected it to do, because of the consolidation. Sooner or later, it has to break up or down. Hey, if I just flip a coin, I have a 50% chance of getting it right

Anyway, too soon to celebrate, as the move just started. We'll see how far it goes. But if it follows the channel it's been in for the past 2 weeks, we should see a new high by next week...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,154
  • Nov 12, 2014 9:53pm Nov 12, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I guess I'm too focused on price movement, when it comes to the question "why?". I care about what goes on in the world, but when it comes to trading, I really don't care why the price moves. Makes it easier to make trading decisions. I don't have to consider anything, except what I see the price doing... What the price is doing right now, is exactly what I expected it to do, because of the consolidation. Sooner or later, it has to break up or down. Hey, if I just flip a coin, I have a 50% chance of getting it right Anyway, too soon to...
What I don't like is that the only major event is the Reserve bank of Australia announcing that they may consider intervention. Funny thing is, AUD/JPY hasn't made huge moves yet, and while AUD s a pacific cross, there isn't enough justification to move up so high given the ample time before US unemployment announcement in 9 hours 30 minutes.

I'm hoping this is a temporary boost, with prices reaching down to 182 once more as USD events come into play since the British pound and the dollar tend to move hand in hand for major crosses like the yen.

But I know better than to just hope. I guess I'll be stuck to my screen for the foreseeable time being. I can't sleep tonight with this movement on.
  • #16,155
  • Nov 12, 2014 10:04pm Nov 12, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} What I don't like is that the only major event is the Reserve bank of Australia announcing that they may consider intervention. Funny thing is, AUD/JPY hasn't made huge moves yet, and while AUD s a pacific cross, there isn't enough justification to move up so high given the ample time before US unemployment announcement in 9 hours 30 minutes. I'm hoping this is a temporary boost, with prices reaching down to 182 once more as USD events come into play since the British pound and the dollar tend to move hand in hand for major crosses like...
Well, I don't think GJ is going straight up from here. I do think it is very possible that it will still touch down on 181.60ish area. I actually have a technical reason, but I'm too lazy to post 2 charts and explain it all

add: so I agree with your "temporary boost" idea
  • #16,156
  • Nov 12, 2014 11:52pm Nov 12, 2014 11:52pm
Geppy's got no way to go but up!
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  • #16,157
  • Nov 13, 2014 1:40am Nov 13, 2014 1:40am
Moment of truth is upon us

Added more shorts @ 182.57.... liking the bounce off 182.73
  • #16,158
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:05am Nov 13, 2014 2:05am
morning people long at the 182.500 sl and short 182.350 target 183.89 / 185, if short 181 ,, back with chart in a bit
  • #16,159
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:09am Nov 13, 2014 2:09am
Quoting elbert3
morning people long at the 182.500 sl and short 182.350 target 183.89 / 185, if short 181 ,, back with chart in a bit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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risky emas say up but tl hit and the 200 hence the tight sl and short order
  • #16,160
  • Nov 13, 2014 2:28am Nov 13, 2014 2:28am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbj.png Size: 82 KB
one of them funny feelings 1st trade out loss and now sl and long 182.800 bit messy but you know what this thing can do in a heartbeat ,, so no heart attacks please
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