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The similarity system

  • #12,141
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:36pm Nov 12, 2014 3:36pm
The problem is not with the probabilities. Just trying to figure out if you made a typo with the 270min or the closing price of 1.2437, because after 270min when you made your call, price was at 1.2424, and having a stop 10pips below 1.24400 would not work, got nothing to do with a failed trade, failed trades are normal.

Regards
  • #12,142
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:41pm Nov 12, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting lappies
The problem is not with the probabilities. Just trying to figure out if you made a typo with the 270min or the closing price of 1.2437, because after 270min when you made your call, price was at 1.2424, and having a stop 10pips below 1.24400 would not work, got nothing to do with a failed trade, failed trades are normal. Regards
You people should not see this call as a failed call. The probability was not 100% that price should end up above 1.24400. It was 98%.
So, rather see it as a 2% percent event occurred.
I just demonstrated that even 0% events can occur. Therefore, unless someone says, event A can never occur, expect rare events to occur!

We went over this thing many times
  • #12,143
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:43pm Nov 12, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting Eurusdd
A 2% event just occured and so we may have a sequence of about 34+ successes after this! That is probability.
Keep doing your thing EURUSDD. Those of who understands it, we will get it. Others, well.. they will be them. Anything new or different will definitely get criticized heavily, you know this more than anybody! haha

Can't wait to hear more about how you calculate probability on your new calls. Is that based on TZs as well or is that your full system with all the components?
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #12,144
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:45pm Nov 12, 2014 3:45pm
The problem now is that I may not post the other long sequence of successes.
Well enough for the day: There is a lot on the thread to digest already!
I am not mad when a rare event occurs because the chance that a long sequence of successes may follow after that is high!
  • #12,145
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:48pm Nov 12, 2014 3:48pm
NOTHING IS 100% SECURE.
This should be posted on a sign above the computer!
RARE EVENTS are those that almost certainly will not happen, but there is a small chance that can happen.
The probability is the key !!
excellent Eurusdd!!!
  • #12,146
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:48pm Nov 12, 2014 3:48pm
Once again, I'm not talking about the probabilies, there is something wrong in the POSTS. There must be a mistake with the 270min or the closing price being talked about, because 270min after the call price was at 1.2424 not 1.24400 and a 10pip stop loss would not work according to the POSTS. Just trying to figure out what the typo is.
  • #12,147
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:53pm Nov 12, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting lappies
Once again, I'm not talking about the probabilies, there is something wrong in the POSTS. There must be a mistake with the 270min or the closing price being talked about, because 270min after the call price was at 1.2424 not 1.24400 and a 10pip stop loss would not work according to the POSTS. Just trying to figure out what the typo is.
Let us focus on the next opportunity! Forget the past! A rare event occurred. done with....
  • #12,148
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:11pm Nov 12, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The numbers given are correct. price closed below 1.24400 by just 2 .7 pips. If you put a SL of 10 pips below 1.24400 you should not worry. This is how to trade this!Where price closes is what matters. But once again this is probability stuff. Some of you may not understand that 2% event can still occur but is a rare event!
There is at no stage where you could put a 10pip sl below 1.24400 for the call to be safe after the 270min, that is why I want this to be cleared up, it is confusing, except if the 270min was 390min???
  • #12,149
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:11pm Nov 12, 2014 4:11pm
I just want to make it clear that those probabilities(or relative frequencies) given are objective. BASED on all data for eurusd. As usual the distribution of 2% events will not change!
There is no subjective analysis. I just stated the numbers objectively.
  • #12,150
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:27pm Nov 12, 2014 4:27pm
If MMs are watching this thread then 98% call won't be 98% anymore. Think about how 95% and 98% calls failed recently.
  • #12,151
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:34pm Nov 12, 2014 4:34pm
Quoting jlee425
If MMs are watching this thread then 98% call won't be 98% anymore. Think about how 95% and 98% calls failed recently.
This thread is not about calls. There is real stuff in for you to develop your own system. So, it is not about calls!
  • #12,152
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:45pm Nov 12, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} This thread is not about calls. There is real stuff in for you to develop your own system. So, it is not about calls!
I meant market manipulators. There is a probability that they watch your calls and manipulate the market. Although its unlikely.
  • #12,153
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:49pm Nov 12, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting jlee425
{quote} I meant market manipulators. There is a probability that they watch your calls and manipulate the market. Although its unlikely.
i believe that kind of manipulation only happens in penny stocks. Forex market is WAY to big for anything like that.
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,154
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:56pm Nov 12, 2014 4:56pm
Quoting jlee425
{quote} I meant market manipulators. There is a probability that they watch your calls and manipulate the market. Although its unlikely.
I think you overrate retails traders in the big scheme of things. We're just gnat's on an elephants bum.
  • #12,155
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:01pm Nov 12, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} This thread is not about calls. There is real stuff in for you to develop your own system. So, it is not about calls!
which 95% are you talking about? I never gave a 95% which fail recently.
  • #12,156
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:02pm Nov 12, 2014 5:02pm
Hey guys just thought id share this. Been studying charts like crazy and I have noticed a pattern in the way TZ's move in relation to each other much like an ABCD except it is more of a counter trend pattern(shout out to ullen who has shown how counter trend trading can be useful, especially in random markets).

Happened 5 times in the past on AUDUSD and looks like it may be happening for a sixth.

EDIT: forgot to draw 4th pattern, it has now been added.



Any ways always good to be looking for new ways to use these theories in the thread to our benefit.

Pip
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Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,157
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:16pm Nov 12, 2014 5:16pm
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} which 95% are you talking about? I never gave a 95% which fail recently.
It was Fx-jays call. But I'm not disrespecting any of the calls made here. In fact I'm learning a lot from this thread.
  • #12,158
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:22pm Nov 12, 2014 5:22pm
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  • #12,159
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:00pm Nov 12, 2014 6:00pm
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  • #12,160
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:21pm Nov 12, 2014 6:21pm
and then you have to contend with this... http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/hsbcmisconduct111114.pdf (http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/hsbcmisconduct111114.pdf)
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