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The similarity system

  • #12,121
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:44pm Nov 12, 2014 1:44pm
eurusd closed at 1.34378 on my chart: 2.3 pips below the 98% level.
Rare event.
  • #12,122
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:44pm Nov 12, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting saver0
Here is a screenshot of my latest dash showing me all the possible levels and the probability of it being hit (based on historical data) and also couple of other vital information that helps me decide on trades without even looking at the chart. {image} Some of you might see 100% levels and think that those are sure trades. Well, based on history they are, but the future is uncertain. I have seen couple of times where the 100% levels doesn't get hit (and then obviously the probability drops for that level moving forward). I'm still making adjustments...
you must be a robot to watch this all
  • #12,123
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:50pm Nov 12, 2014 1:50pm
I am opened to to anything! Those probabilities are correct and there was a success sequence of 34 before this 2 pips failure!
  • #12,124
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:52pm Nov 12, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting Eurusdd
eurusd closed at 1.34378 on my chart: 2.3 pips below the 98% level. Rare event.
1.24378 (typo)
  • #12,125
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:53pm Nov 12, 2014 1:53pm
The numbers given are correct. price closed below 1.24400 by just 2 .7 pips. If you put a SL of 10 pips below 1.24400 you should not worry. This is how to trade this!Where price closes is what matters.
But once again this is probability stuff. Some of you may not understand that 2% event can still occur but is a rare event!
  • #12,126
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:53pm Nov 12, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting Eurusdd
I am opened to to anything! Those probabilities are correct and there was a success sequence of 34 before this 2 pips failure!
ignore the naysayers. Making money is more important than being right. Some made money from that call. No worries.
  • #12,127
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:05pm Nov 12, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The numbers given are correct. price closed below 1.24400 by just 2 .7 pips. If you put a SL of 10 pips below 1.24400 you should not worry. This is how to trade this!Where price closes is what matters. But once again this is probability stuff. Some of you may not understand that 2% event can still occur but is a rare event!
People will take 98% as 100%. Most people doesn't understand the importance of probability. One could have a system with 99%, and still manage to loose money on the long run. I bet the ones understanding how to trade probability (including myself) are very happy about this new probability concept, and just ignore the ones complaining.

Nice job my friend!
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #12,128
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:05pm Nov 12, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting PiratePip
Alas! We have made it to Rome..... 99.33% of levels drawn are cleared... {image}
Nice, I think needs to add time: how much time need to clear the zone(max, avg)
  • #12,129
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:06pm Nov 12, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} Nice, I think needs to add time: how much time need to clear the zone(max, avg)

Avg time would be very good. Think to remember there is no max time it needs to be cleared in since price in unbounded. Thats why SS is not an end all and more of an accurate target predictor .
Life's Good & Why Wouldn't It Be? Im a Pirate After All!
  • #12,130
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:32pm Nov 12, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Eurusdd
The numbers given are correct. price closed below 1.24400 by just 2 .7 pips. If you put a SL of 10 pips below 1.24400 you should not worry. This is how to trade this!Where price closes is what matters. But once again this is probability stuff. Some of you may not understand that 2% event can still occur but is a rare event!
270 min after your post, the price closed at 1.24243 on Pepperstone(9pm). Which broker do you use?
  • #12,131
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:33pm Nov 12, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting lappies
{quote} 270 min after your post, the price closed at 1.24243 on Pepperstone(9pm). Which broker do you use?
Same here I use Pepperstone. If we take the time of the post, the price was at 1.2424 yep
  • #12,132
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:43pm Nov 12, 2014 2:43pm
EURUSDD don't worry
you made difference thinking in forex for all reader of this thread
and i make money from this call (22 pips )
any one read all this pages knew that there is another way of thinking in this market
Sorry for my Language
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-12_2239.png Size: 4 KB
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #12,133
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:53pm Nov 12, 2014 2:53pm
EURUSDD , Kiads . Fox-jay ,Ullen , saver0 and many intelligent in this thread
I and most other reader wait their post
Thanks for all
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #12,134
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:59pm Nov 12, 2014 2:59pm
My 3rd iteration of trades on EURUSDD's call just came into profit. Ran some "retail high-freq" LOL - the brokers get mad when message counts get too high and their servers begin to puff smoke, so I have to be careful... My SL was at 1.2390, and I doubled the frequency below 1.2440. I ran the short side as well, but took profit and shut that side down at 1.2460. 3 iterations TP (2 long and 1 short) + 1 at BE = 620 pts on the volley. Not bad for a "rare event".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDcttM1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #12,135
  • Edited 3:15pm Nov 12, 2014 3:04pm | Edited 3:15pm
some of you are quite funny: But i learned one thing. Keep your calls to yourself! I have given enough!
The problem lies in Probability::

John: "The probability a prime number, chosen randomly, is odd is 100%, almost surely"
Peter: "This John guy is WRONG, silly"
Samuel: "Peter, why?"
Peter: "2 is a prime number and it is even. So his probability is wrong. I just got 2 as an outcome. It is not supposed to happen"

GOD: "Some humans are silly. Why did I make them?"

Moral of the story: even a 0% event can occur. It depends on what set has measure zero.
  • #12,136
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:08pm Nov 12, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting Eurusdd
some of you are quite funny: But i learned one thing. Keep your calls to yourself! I have given enough! The problem lies in Probability:: John: "The probability a rime number is odd is 100%" Peter: "This John guy is WRONG, silly" Samuel: "Peter, why?" Peter: "2 is a prime number and it is even. So his probability is wrong" GOD: "Some humans are silly. Why did I make them?"
all the time will be people like this
  • #12,137
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:18pm Nov 12, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Eurusdd
some of you are quite funny: But i learned one thing. Keep your calls to yourself! I have given enough! The problem lies in Probability:: John: "The probability a prime number, chosen randomly, is odd is 100%, almost surely" Peter: "This John guy is WRONG, silly" Samuel: "Peter, why?" Peter: "2 is a prime number and it is even. So his probability is wrong. I just got 2 as an outcome. It is not supposed to happen" GOD: "Some humans are silly. Why did I make them?" Moral of the story: even a 0% event can occur. It depends on what set has measure zero....
Just kick Peter out and keep the calls coming. Most of us are learning, creating and sharing.
  • #12,138
  • Edited 3:29pm Nov 12, 2014 3:18pm | Edited 3:29pm
A 2% event just occured and so we may have a sequence of about 34+ successes after this! That is probability.
  • #12,139
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:28pm Nov 12, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Eurusdd
A 2% event just occur and so we may have a sequence of about 34+ successes after this! That is probability.
98% of the people in this thread are trying to get something from your wisdom you but sometimes 2% criticize with or without valid reasons.. It is normal and sometimes even can expand the discussions....
  • #12,140
  • Nov 12, 2014 3:30pm Nov 12, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} 98% of the people in this thread are trying to get something from your wisdom you but sometimes 2% criticize with or without valid reasons.. It is normal and sometimes even can expand the discussions....
I agree with you. That is why I am pointing out that the game is probabilistic and traders must think that way! A lot of traders here have deeper understanding of probabilistic problems and understand the weight a 2% event carries.
But a lot of readers do not! They are the ones I am concerned about! Because if I post 10 more signal, I am sure they will all be right. because a 2% event just occurred. However, let me not disturb the waters.
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